针对市场关注的海外算力"泡沫论"，他认为情绪可能过度演绎。当前海外AI模型与应用仍处于用户和收 入的爆发期，行业基本面健康。只要真实需求持续扩张，上游资本开支就具备坚实支撑。因此，对算力 板块的悲观情绪存在修复基础。 专题：2025基金年终大盘点：冠军基年内狂飙240%，主动权益重获主导，全行业规模逼近36万亿新高 2025年公募基金年度"成绩单"正式出炉。 从年度回报来看，永赢基金旗下任桀管理的永赢科技智选A以233.29%的年内涨幅摘得桂冠，最新规模 达115.21亿元；中航基金韩浩管理的中航机遇领航A以168.92%的涨幅位居第二，最新规模为132.31亿 元；红土创新基金廖星昊管理的红土创新新兴产业A则以148.64%的涨幅位列第三。 数据来源：Wind 截止至20251231 展望2026年，任桀认为，由人工智能驱动的产业变革仍将是市场结构性机会的核心主线。市场整体有望 在政策托底与产业升级的合力下保持震荡上行，但行情驱动力可能从2025年流动性推动的乐观预期，更 多地向基本面验证倾斜。风格有望趋于均衡，那些能够切实兑现业绩、展示清晰成长路径的环节将获得 更多青睐。 在具体的投资机会上，任桀看好AI ...

Core Viewpoint - The year 2025 marks a structural bull market, with significant gains in major indices, including an 18.36% increase in the CSI 300 and a 51.47% rise in the ChiNext Index, both representing the largest annual gains since 2020. The total trading volume of A-shares exceeded 400 trillion yuan, setting a historical record [1]. Monthly Key Events - January-February: AI models driven by DeepSeek and humanoid robot performances during the Spring Festival gained attention [4]. - March: Recovery in consumer scenarios boosted retail and catering sectors [4]. - April: U.S. tariffs led to increased interest in gold, agriculture, and undervalued blue-chip stocks [4]. - May: The May Day consumption peak activated the consumption and logistics sectors [4]. - June: Military parades and geopolitical tensions strengthened the military industry, while green building policies positively impacted related sectors [4]. - July: The commercial launch of humanoid robots and surging demand for AI computing power boosted related stocks [4]. - August: Support policies for synthetic biology spurred interest in beauty and pharmaceutical sectors [4]. - September: Accelerated industrialization of solid-state batteries led to valuation recovery in the new energy sector [4]. - October-November: Recovery in storage chip prices initiated an industry cycle reversal, benefiting the semiconductor sector [4]. - December: The official launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port and the issuance of L3 autonomous driving permits led to increased activity in local stocks and related technologies [4]. Industry Performance - The mining, hardware, industrial trade, and comprehensive sectors saw annual gains exceeding 60% [5]. - The top three investment themes in 2025 were innovative drugs, AI, and robotics, with gold also performing exceptionally well due to a weaker dollar [6][9]. Investment Highlights - Innovative drugs experienced a valuation reshaping driven by policy support and industry upgrades, with the Hang Seng Biotechnology Index rising 70.02% [7]. - The AI sector exploded following the introduction of DeepSeek, with significant growth in demand for chips and computing power [8]. - The robotics sector gained momentum with increased policy support and the emergence of domestic giants [9]. Fund Performance - 华夏基金 (China Asset Management) achieved notable success in various fund categories, continuing its strong performance from 2023 [10]. - The 华夏北交所创新中小企业精选两年定开 fund recorded a return of 270.61% over three years, with a 75.28% return in 2025 [11]. - The 华夏数字产业混合 fund saw a 126.46% increase in 2025, benefiting from the structural bull market in the AI sector [9]. ETF Market Growth - The ETF market in China reached 6.03 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, a 60% increase from the beginning of the year, with 1,381 ETFs available [15]. - 华夏基金 played a significant role in the growth of the ETF market through innovative tools and reports aimed at enhancing investor experience [16][17]. Strategic Evolution - 华夏基金 has transitioned from "managing assets" to "defining assets," focusing on a multi-asset approach to meet diverse investor needs in the era of inclusive finance [18][19].

导读：在经历了2022到2023连续两年的低迷，以及2024年的924反转后，2025年是一个完整的 结构性牛市。截止2025年12月28日，沪深300为代表的宽基指数涨幅18.36%，为2020年以来最 大年度涨幅；创业板指为代表的新兴成长指数涨幅51.47%，同样为2020年以来最大年度涨幅。 在这一年，几乎每一个月都有重要的行业主题事件，市场保持了很强的活跃度。全年A股交易额 突破400万亿元，创下历史新高。 资料来源：Wind；数据截至2025年12月28日 我们简单罗列了2025年每一个月的重要主题事件： ● 1-2月以DeepSeek开源大模型驱动的AI大模型/算力成为开年核心，同时春晚人形机器人舞蹈 引发关注； ● 3月消费场景修复带动零售、餐饮板块补涨； ● 4月美国加征"对等关税"后，黄金、农业等避险板块及低估值蓝筹受资金青睐； ● 5月五一消费旺季推动消费、物流板块活跃； ● 6月阅兵预期升温叠加地缘冲突催化，军工板块走强，同时受政策落地影响，绿色建筑板块有 不错行情； ● 7月人形机器人规模化商用启动，AI算力需求持续爆发推动光模块、服务器标的走强，同时雅 下工程启动带动基建、建材相关板 ...

1998年首批五家基金公司获批成立，公募至今已走过27年。从最初"灵魂人物"顶起半边天，到压赛 道"躺赢"，再到如今的基金公司平台化、基金产品工具化，公募行业的发展理念也经过了多次迭代。 这期间，公募行业发展理念呈现出从依赖单个"人"、单个产品，向依赖系统转变，从寻找、等待不确 定的"爆款"产品、明星基金经理，向增强公司整体"体系韧性"、业务确定性和可预期性转变。 作为国内公募行业的先行者和领军者，早在2023年，成立25年的华夏基金就提出要以多资产全能平 台和资产配置的理念来打通公司的整体业务链条。这使得华夏基金再一次成为 公募行业第一个"摸着 石头过河的人" 。华夏基金总经理李一梅表示，"华夏基金希望能成为资管行业中的'乐高'。" 作为全球著名积木品牌，乐高最伟大的发明不是某个具体模型，而是让每个人都能成为设计师。乐高 最为人所知的特点是其独一无二的组装式设计理念，将每个零件都设计成了标准尺寸，便于组装和拆 卸。乐高零部件的兼容性使得乐高成为无数创作者展示自己想象力的载体。人们通过乐高既可以拼出 简单的房子、汽车，也可以拼出复杂的城市、城堡。 而华夏基金将自己的目标定位为资管行业中的"乐高"，恰恰看到了基 ...

专题：2025基金行业年终大盘点：公募规模近36万亿元，主动权益重夺主场，"冠军基"揭榜倒计时 2025年，A股市场迎来全面上涨行情，市场情绪显著复苏。 Wind数据显示，截至12月25日，今年以来全市场近4700只主动权益类基金中，仅194只年内收益为负， 超过4500只实现正收益。其中，83只基金年内回报突破100%，前十名基金回报均超144%，永赢科技智 选A以237.66%的年内回报暂居榜首。 若将考察周期拉长至三年，头部基金的业绩表现更为亮眼。排名前二十的基金近三年回报均超过 160%，平均回报达193%。东吴新趋势价值线以279.67%的三年回报位列第一，华夏北交所创新中小企 业精选两年定开以272.71%紧随其后。然而，在亮眼表现的背后，部分产品在过去三年中亦遭遇了显著 挑战。排名末位的20只基金平均亏损接近41%，与头部产品的表现形成鲜明反差。 | 数据来源：Wind 截止 | | --- | 至20251225 从近三年回报来看，排名垫底的20只主动权益基金平均下跌41%。其中，金鹰多元策略A亏损47.72%位 居末位，中信建投智信物联网A、天治新消费紧随其后，亏损均超47%。 值得注意的是 ...

专题：2025基金行业年终大盘点：公募规模近36万亿元，主动权益重夺主场，"冠军基"揭榜倒计时 | 数据来源：Wind 截止 | | --- | 至20251225 若将考察周期拉长至三年，头部基金的业绩表现更为亮眼。排名前二十的基金近三年回报均超过 160%，平均回报达193%。东吴新趋势价值线以279.67%的三年回报位列第一，华夏北交所创新中小企 业精选两年定开以272.71%紧随其后，东吴移动互联A则以269.41%位居第三。 2025年，A股市场迎来全面上涨行情，市场情绪显著复苏。 Wind数据显示，截至12月25日，今年以来全市场近4700只主动权益类基金中，仅194只年内收益为负， 超过4500只实现正收益。其中，83只基金年内回报突破100%，前十名基金回报均超144%，永赢科技智 选A以237.66%的年内回报暂居榜首。 从基金类型与策略特征分析，灵活配置型基金展现出明显的适应优势。在TOP20榜单中，10只灵活配置 型基金近三年平均回报达208%，高于8只偏股混合型基金的183%和2只普通股票型基金的161%。 基金经理层面，东吴基金刘元海表现尤为突出，其管理的三只基金均进入榜单，平均三年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant changes in the fund management industry, particularly focusing on the impact of new regulations that tie fund managers' compensation to their performance, aiming to align their interests with those of investors [4][30]. Market Dynamics - The A-share market is experiencing a split, with technology stocks like AI and semiconductors performing well, while traditional sectors such as liquor and banking are struggling [5][8]. - Fund managers are increasingly adopting a "herd mentality," gravitating towards high-performing sectors to mitigate risks associated with underperformance [9][16]. Regulatory Changes - New regulations state that if active equity fund managers underperform their benchmarks by over 10% for three years and the fund is unprofitable, their performance pay must be reduced by at least 30% [19][30]. - As of December 7, only 42% of funds have outperformed their benchmarks over the past three years, indicating that nearly 60% of active equity products are underperforming [21][24]. Performance Metrics - Among the underperforming funds, 1,444 funds have lagged their benchmarks by over 10%, with 400 funds underperforming by more than 30% [24][25]. - The article highlights specific funds, such as the Jin Ying Multi-Strategy Mixed A, which has a net value growth rate of -53.54% compared to a benchmark return of 19.49%, resulting in a significant underperformance of 73.03% [25]. Compensation Structure - The new rules aim to create a long-term incentive and constraint mechanism, with at least 80% of performance indicators based on long-term returns [30]. - Sales executives are also affected, with at least 50% of their performance metrics tied to investor profit and loss [31]. Industry Transformation - The article suggests that the narrative of "fund companies making money while investors lose" may change due to these regulatory reforms, which are designed to promote a focus on sustainable profitability rather than short-term gains [35].

Core Viewpoint - The new regulations on performance benchmarks for public funds in China aim to enhance the accountability of fund managers by linking their compensation to the performance benchmarks, promoting a return to the fundamental purpose of asset management, which is to provide stable long-term returns for investors [1][9]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) released an action plan in May to promote high-quality development in the public fund industry, emphasizing the importance of performance benchmarks [1]. - A draft of new regulations regarding performance benchmarks was published on October 31, which is expected to improve the discipline of active investment and stabilize investment styles [1][9]. - The introduction of a performance benchmark element library aims to standardize the selection of benchmarks and prevent arbitrary changes, enhancing the comparability and normativity of benchmarks [9][8]. Group 2: Fund Performance Analysis - As of November 4, 2023, 3731 active equity funds were analyzed, with an average return that lagged behind their benchmarks by 7.26%, and only 34% of these funds outperformed their benchmarks over the past three years [2]. - Among the top-performing funds, only 20 funds achieved over 100% excess returns, indicating that achieving superior performance under the new standards is challenging [2]. - Some high-performing funds may have misleadingly high returns due to benchmark mismatches, highlighting the importance of appropriate benchmark selection [2][3]. Group 3: Size and Performance Correlation - Larger active equity funds do not necessarily correlate with superior excess returns; only 40% of funds over 10 billion yuan in size outperformed their benchmarks [5]. - Smaller funds, with an average size of 30.57 million yuan, showed better excess return capabilities, supporting the notion that smaller funds can adapt more flexibly to market changes [6][5]. Group 4: Fund Manager Impact - The total management scale of fund managers influences their active management capabilities, with a significant number of successful funds managed by managers overseeing over 10 billion yuan [7]. - The average tenure of fund managers does not significantly correlate with their ability to generate excess returns, indicating that experience alone may not guarantee performance [7]. Group 5: Industry Evolution - The new regulations are expected to lead to a systematic restructuring of the public fund industry, with a one-year transition period for existing products to adjust their benchmarks [9][10]. - The emphasis on long-term performance and the establishment of a benchmark-linked compensation system for fund managers will promote more transparent and standardized investment behaviors [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced a significant turnaround since the implementation of a series of market stabilization policies, with major indices showing substantial gains over the past year [1][2]. Market Performance - As of September 23, 2025, the CSI 300 Index has increased by 40.68%, while the STAR 50 Index has surged by 118.85% since the "9.24 market" began [1]. - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 4.15% in a single day, and the ChiNext Index jumped by 5.54%, indicating a broad recovery in market sentiment [1]. - The CSI 50 Index, representing traditional industries, saw a modest increase of 30.16%, contrasting with the 114.38% rise of the STAR 100 Index, which focuses on hard technology [2]. Fund Performance - Nearly 90% of the 13,273 funds in the market achieved positive returns, with 774 funds doubling their net value and 13 funds exceeding a 200% increase [2]. - The top-performing funds include 德邦鑫星价值, 中欧数字经济, and 中信建投北交所精选, among others, showcasing the effectiveness of active management in a structural market [2]. Sector Analysis - The telecommunications sector led the market with a 124.09% increase, followed by electronics at 121.05% and computers at 82.15%, forming a strong "technology trio" [2]. - In contrast, sectors such as food and beverage, transportation, and utilities saw gains of less than 20%, highlighting a clear structural shift in market funding [2]. Investment Strategy - The 德邦鑫星价值 fund, managed by 雷涛 and 陆阳, achieved a remarkable 280% increase, with its net value rising from 0.99 yuan to 3.54 yuan over the past year [3]. - The fund's strategy focused on the AI computing power industry, identifying key trends and investment opportunities through in-depth industry research [3][4]. Future Outlook - The technology sector is expected to maintain its strength, driven by optimistic long-term expectations and increased capital inflow into high-growth areas such as AI computing and domestic chips [5][6]. - The ongoing support from national policies and technological breakthroughs is anticipated to further enhance the performance of the technology industry [6]. - The AI industry is viewed as being in its early stages, with significant growth potential ahead, as it is expected to transform traditional industries and create new applications [6].

Market Recovery - The A-share market has shown significant recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising from 2700 points to over 3800 points, and the total market capitalization surpassing 100 trillion yuan [1][3] - Over 1500 stocks have doubled in price since last year, indicating a broad-based recovery across various sectors [1][4] Investor Behavior - Investor sentiment has shifted from a cautious "cash out upon breakeven" mentality to a more optimistic approach, with many now considering new investment opportunities [10][12] - New A-share accounts opened in August increased by 165% year-on-year, reflecting growing investor interest [1][12] Fund Performance - The performance of public funds has improved significantly, with over 99% of funds showing positive cumulative returns since last September, and 697 funds achieving over 100% returns [4][6] - The number of funds with unit net values below 1 yuan has decreased from 3959 to 1224, indicating a recovery in fund values [6] Long-term Capital Inflow - Long-term capital, including insurance and pension funds, has been steadily entering the A-share market, with a total market value of approximately 21.4 trillion yuan, a 32% increase since the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [7][8] - The ETF market has also seen substantial growth, reaching a total scale of 5.31 trillion yuan, up 42.31% from the end of last year [7] Policy Support - Regulatory policies aimed at encouraging long-term capital inflow have been implemented, which are expected to further enhance market stability and growth [8][9] - Recent reforms in public fund fee structures are projected to save investors over 500 billion yuan annually, promoting a more favorable investment environment [9]