Core Viewpoint - The company has developed a "three-part" asset allocation framework consisting of Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA), Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA), and Major Event Review Adjustments to guide investment decisions. This framework aims to diversify macro risks, set long-term allocation benchmarks, and adjust based on short-term risk-return characteristics and significant events [1][10]. Group 1: Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) - The SAA framework aims to mitigate macro risks by establishing a long-term allocation benchmark to ensure portfolio stability [1][10]. - The recommended asset allocation for October includes 41.25% in equities, 45% in bonds, and 13.75% in commodities, with specific allocations for A-shares, H-shares, and gold [1][2]. Group 2: Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) - The TAA approach utilizes quantitative methods to identify assets with superior short-term risk-return characteristics, allowing for moderate adjustments to portfolio weights to enhance returns [1][10]. - The company remains optimistic about Chinese equities, suggesting an overweight position in A-shares and H-shares, while maintaining a neutral stance on bonds and a slightly optimistic view on commodities, particularly gold [2][3]. Group 3: Major Events Review - The company emphasizes the importance of subjective review of major events in conjunction with quantitative results to refine investment strategies, particularly in response to geopolitical uncertainties and market volatility [1][52]. - Recent events, such as the Chinese government's financial reforms and the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate adjustments, are expected to influence market dynamics positively, particularly for A-shares and gold [54]. Group 4: Performance Metrics - The performance of various asset classes has shown significant fluctuations, with notable increases in the Shanghai Composite Index and other Chinese indices over the past year, indicating a robust recovery in the equity market [6]. - The macro factor risk parity model has demonstrated effectiveness in enhancing returns while maintaining a balanced asset allocation, achieving an annualized return of 26.5% in 2025 with a Sharpe ratio of 2.59 [48][50].

Core Insights - The evolution of China's asset management industry has been rapid, akin to a "4x speed" development since the establishment of the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 1990, transitioning from a "wild west" era to a more structured environment with institutional investors leading value investment [4][7] - The introduction of the "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of Public Funds" by the China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasizes enhancing investor "sense of gain," which includes clear product positioning, adherence to strategies, and balancing returns with risk [4][5][7] - The historical context of Wall Street's development provides valuable lessons for China's asset management industry, highlighting the transition from informal practices to professional, rule-based, and systematic investment strategies [7] Investment Strategies - The U.S. market has seen the emergence of three core investment strategies: active, passive, and quantitative, with passive investment gaining significant traction, surpassing active investment in scale by 2023 [2][3] - Active fund managers are increasingly adopting a combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches to mitigate risks and enhance returns, with firms like Capital Group and Vanguard implementing multi-manager models to diversify strategies [3] - The Modern Portfolio Theory suggests that combining multiple strategies with different risk profiles can lead to higher risk-adjusted returns, which is crucial for achieving investor satisfaction [5][6] Technological Integration - The integration of AI technology in investment strategies is seen as a key lever for fund managers to enhance their capabilities, allowing them to automate and optimize various aspects of strategy development and execution [6] - AI can assist in tasks such as factor definition, calculation, effectiveness analysis, and strategy backtesting, enabling fund managers to focus on strategic insights while leveraging technology for operational efficiency [6] Future Outlook - The "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of Public Funds" is viewed as a milestone in the maturation of China's asset management industry, signaling a shift towards prioritizing client interests and adopting scientific, rule-based investment strategies [7] - The evolution of the industry is expected to follow a natural progression from disorder to a more structured and systematic approach, particularly in the context of the AI era [7]

有消息称，甲骨文可能从 2027 年起与 OpenAI 签订一份价值 3000 亿美元的 5 年期协议（该金额已计入当前 RPO），管理层还预计本财年 RPO 将增至 5000 亿美元。2026 财年营收增速指引为 16%，甲骨文云基础设施（OCI）业务预计增长 77% 至 180 亿美元，未来四年目标分 别为 320 亿、730 亿、1140 亿和 1440 亿美元。 从数据看确实不错，但真正的增长爆发要等到 2028 财年才会到来。在此之前，相较于其他超大规模科技公司，甲骨文当前的高市盈率并不合 理。因此，分析师选择暂时观望，看看股价能回调到什么程度 —— 若跌至 260 美元 / 股，可能会重新考虑将评级上调至 "买入"。 甲骨文 2026 财年一季度营收和每股收益（EPS）均未达到华尔街共识预期：营收比预期少 1.17 亿美元，EPS 为 1.47 美元，比 1.48 美元的预 期低 1 美分。 然而，财报发布次日，其股价却暴涨逾 40%，最高触及 345 美元。坦白说，我从未见过市值像甲骨文这么大的公司能有如此涨幅 —— 截至撰 写本文时，其市值为 8647 亿美元，距离 "万亿俱乐部" 仅一步之遥 ...

风险偏好改善支撑全球权益配置价值 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) 国泰海通资产配置月度方案（202508） 本报告导读： 我们认为市场后续表现将继续由风险偏好变化主导，当下风险资产具备更高的战术 性配置价值，8 月维持对 A 股和美股的战术性超配观点。 投资要点： 总量研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.08.11 | | 021-38031658 | | --- | --- | | | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 李健(分析师) | | | 010-83939798 | | | lijian8@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525070013 | | | 王子翌(分析师) | | | 021-38038293 | | | wangziyi@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880523050004 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 | 一页纸精读行业比较数据：3 月 2025.03.28 | | --- | | 行业比较-数据月报－价格链-25 年 3 月 | | 2025. ...