Report Overview - Report Title: Financial Futures Weekly Report [1] - Date: November 14, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For stock indices, the medium - to long - term upward trend remains unchanged due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations and the new policy expectations from the 14th Five - Year Plan. However, in the short term, the index may fluctuate around the key pressure level of 4000 on the Shanghai Composite Index, and the market style may favor defensive sectors and large - cap blue - chip stocks [13]. - For treasury bonds, the negative factors in the bond market have basically been released, and November is in a stage of accumulating positive factors. Although there are some uncertain disturbances, the overall bond market environment has improved, and investors are advised to seize allocation opportunities in case of market over - adjustment [69][70][71]. - For shipping indices, the freight rate is likely to form a bottom - up trend, but the actual demand may not support a large price increase. It is recommended to short the off - season April contract [93]. 3. Summary by Directory Stock Indices Market Review - The A - share market has shown a trend of "short - term correction followed by strong performance, and rebound after a sharp decline due to external shocks" since the beginning of the year. From November 10 - 14, the A - share market fell with volume, and most major broad - based indices declined. In terms of market style, the consumption and financial sectors led the gains [7][8]. - Externally, the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut has dropped to about 50%. Domestically, the economic data in October showed a weakening of both supply and demand ends, and the marginal pressure on the domestic economy has increased. Although the margin balance has reached a new high, the participation of retail investors is not high. Overall, the medium - to long - term upward trend of stock indices remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations are expected [12][13]. 成交持仓分析 - The trading volume of stock index futures showed a differentiated trend this week. The average daily trading volumes of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 111,900, 50,300, 125,900, and 206,400 lots respectively, with changes of + 2,400, + 1,400, - 8,500, and - 12,100 lots compared to last week. The average daily open interest also showed a differentiated trend [14]. 基差、跨期价差及跨品种价差分析 - The basis was negative and widened. The spreads between the next - month and current - month contracts and between the current - quarter and current - month contracts of most varieties showed a negative value, with some spreads widening and some narrowing. In terms of cross - variety spreads, large - cap blue - chip stocks performed relatively better [16][22][24]. 行业板块概况 - In the CSI 300, the consumption, pharmaceutical, and financial sectors led the gains, while the information, communication, and public utility sectors led the losses. In the CSI 500, the consumption, pharmaceutical, and real estate sectors led the gains, and the information, energy, and communication sectors led the losses. At the first - level industry level, the comprehensive, textile and apparel, and commercial retail sectors led the gains, while the electronics, communication, and computer sectors led the losses [26][28]. 估值比较 - As of November 14, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 14.4074, 12.1321, 33.5349, and 48.0448 times respectively, and they were at the 89.38%, 92.76%, 80.04%, and 77.95% quantile levels in the past ten years [32]. Treasury Bonds This Week's Market Review - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The central bank released a loose signal again. The performance of treasury bond futures this week was affected by factors such as inflation data, the central bank's monetary policy report, and the stock market trend. In terms of strategy, there is a certain positive arbitrage space in each contract, and the basis of the 10 - year main contract is slightly high, with the potential for convergence [35][37][40]. - **Bond Spot Market**: The yields of domestic treasury bond spots fell across the board, while the yields of US treasury bonds rose across the board [57]. - **Funding Situation**: The inter - bank funding tightened, and the central bank turned to net investment. The funding rate fluctuated, and there was no liquidity stratification between banks and non - banks [60][62]. Market Analysis - The bond market stabilized and strengthened in October. Currently, the economic fundamentals face pressure, and the government's policies release a loose signal. Although there are some uncertain disturbances, the overall bond market environment has improved [69][70][71]. - The economic data in October further weakened, and the social financing growth was lower than expected, which supported the bond market [72]. Next Week's Open Market Maturities and Important Economic Calendar - A large amount of reverse repurchase and treasury cash fixed - deposit will mature next week, and the LPR quotation will be announced on Thursday [79]. Shipping Indices Market Review - The container shipping futures on the European route first rose and then fell. The SCFIS rebounded better than expected, but the shipping companies' reduction of the price increase in late November dampened the price increase expectation at the end of the year [80]. Container Shipping Market Situation - **Spot Market**: The freight rates of ocean - going routes showed a differentiated trend, with the rates on the European and US routes falling. The shipping companies' reduction of price increase quotations dampened the price increase expectation, and the market is waiting for the actual implementation of the price increase in December [85][86]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the container shipping capacity to Europe remains at a relatively high level, and the future supply pressure still exists. On the demand side, the macro - demand in the eurozone continues to show a weak recovery, and the demand - side support for container shipping prices is limited [89][90]. Market Outlook - The freight rate is likely to form a bottom - up trend, but the actual demand may not support a large price increase. It is recommended to short the off - season April contract [93].

Report Information - Report Title: Index Monthly Report [1] - Date: November 3, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Nie Jiayi, Huang Wenxin, He Zhuoqiao [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In October, the new round of Sino-US game became the main factor affecting the market. The overall A-share market oscillated. After the Sino-US leaders' meeting in Busan, South Korea, although the negotiation results sent positive signals, the market weakened after the positive news landed due to over - inflated market expectations. The Fed cut interest rates in October, but the post - meeting statement was slightly hawkish, and the probability of a December rate cut declined. The economic data in September showed increased fundamental pressure, and policies were needed to boost the economy. With the easing of the external environment and the "15th Five - Year Plan" injecting new policy expectations into the market, the stock index is expected to continue its medium - to long - term strong trend after short - term shock consolidation at the key pressure level of 4,000 points on the Shanghai Composite Index. The market style should still focus on the dumbbell strategy, with balanced allocation of CSI 300 and CSI 500 [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Market行情回顾 - Since the beginning of the year, the A - share market has shown a trend of "short - term correction followed by a strong run, and a rebound after a sharp decline due to external shocks". Before the Spring Festival, the market was cautious due to uncertainties after the new US president took office. After the Spring Festival, the technology sector led the market under the influence of positive news. In late March, the market corrected again due to approaching the annual report disclosure period. After the US announced "reciprocal tariffs" in April, the A - share market broke through the support level. Then, with factors such as "national team" funds and better - than - expected Sino - US tariff negotiations, the index rebounded. After the "anti - involution" policy and the trillion - level infrastructure project of the Yajiang Hydropower Station, relevant concept sectors rotated and rose. After the "9·3 Parade", the market became cautious, and the index consolidated at a high level [8]. - In October, the Sino - US game affected the market. The overall A - share market oscillated. After the US softened its stance, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 4,000 points. After the negotiation results in Malaysia and the leaders' meeting in South Korea were finalized, the market became cautious again, and the index slightly corrected. In October, the Wind All - A Index slightly declined by 0.03%. Among the major broad - based indices, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.85%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.10%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.56%, and the small and medium - cap index fell 1.15%. In terms of market style, the stable and financial sectors led the rise, while the growth sector led the decline [9]. 1.2 Industry Sector Situation - In October, among the CSI 300 sub - industries, the energy, utilities, and materials sectors led the rise, with increases of 9.50%, 4.35%, and 3.48% respectively, while the pharmaceutical, information, and real estate sectors led the decline, with decreases of 7.28%, 3.93%, and 3.80% respectively. Among the CSI 500 sub - industries, the utilities, energy, and raw materials sectors led the rise, with increases of 7.85%, 4.06%, and 2.46% respectively, while the real estate, communication, and optional consumption sectors led the decline, with decreases of 11.24%, 5.11%, and 4.94% respectively. At the first - level industry level, the coal, steel, and non - ferrous metal sectors led the rise, with increases of 10.02%, 5.16%, and 5.00% respectively, while the media, beauty care, and automobile sectors declined, with decreases of 6.04%, 3.84%, and 3.58% respectively [15]. 1.3 Valuation Comparison - As of October 31, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 14.1146, 11.7732, 33.3983, and 47.5311 times respectively, changing by - 0.3007, - 0.0916, - 2.4316, and - 0.9139 compared with the beginning of the month, and were at the 83.66%, 87.82%, 79.06%, and 76.34% percentile levels in the past ten years respectively [25]. 2. Futures Indicator Analysis 2.1 Transaction and Position Analysis - In October, the trading volume of stock index futures decreased. The average daily trading volumes of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 13.61, 6.33, 15.42, and 24.38 million lots respectively, decreasing by 1.93, 0.24, 0.63, and 3.98 million lots compared with the previous month. The positions of stock index futures mainly decreased. The average daily positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 26.75, 9.80, 25.44, and 35.98 million lots respectively, changing by - 0.77, - 0.35, 0.15, and - 1.76 million lots compared with the previous month [26]. 2.2 Basis Analysis - As of October 31, the basis discounts of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 main contracts narrowed, increasing by 13.43, 33.37, and 30.29 respectively compared with the end of September to - 9.27, - 88.60, and - 138.47. The basis premium of the SSE 50 main contract widened, increasing by 3.58 to 3.65 compared with the end of September. In terms of the annualized basis rate, as of October 31, the annualized basis rate of the CSI 300 main contract was - 1.47%, increasing by 1.17 percentage points compared with the end of September; the annualized basis rate of the SSE 50 main contract was 0.89%, increasing by 1.01 percentage points compared with the end of September; the annualized basis rate of the CSI 500 main contract was - 8.88%, decreasing by 1.86 percentage points compared with the end of September; the annualized basis rate of the CSI 1000 main contract was - 13.55%, decreasing by 4.80 percentage points compared with the end of September. Overall, the discount of the IF main contract narrowed, the IH main contract changed from a discount to a premium, and the discounts of the IC and IM main contracts widened [28]. 2.3 Cross - Variety Spread Analysis - In October, large - cap blue - chip stocks performed relatively better. As of October 31, the CSI 300/SSE 50 ratio was 1.5410, at the 95.00% historical percentile level, decreasing by 0.0117 compared with the end of September; the CSI 1000/CSI 500 ratio was 1.0240, at the 29.40% historical percentile level, increasing by 0.0020 compared with the end of September; the CSI 300/CSI 1000 ratio was 0.6182, at the 38.10% historical percentile level, increasing by 0.0056 compared with the end of September; the SSE 50/CSI 1000 ratio was 0.4012, at the 30.80% historical percentile level, increasing by 0.0066 compared with the end of September [43]. 3. Macroeconomic Tracking 3.1 Sino - US New Round of Tariff Game, Leaders' Meeting as Market Sentiment Turning Point - Before the end of September, the Sino - US trade situation was generally easing, and a preliminary agreement was reached on the TikTok issue. In early October, the game between the two sides escalated unexpectedly. The US announced a series of measures, and China counterattacked. In the middle of the month, the US attitude softened, and the domestic capital market sentiment reversed. At the end of the month, the Sino - US leaders met in Busan, South Korea, and reached consensus on multiple issues. However, the market weakened after the positive news landed [44][45][49]. 3.2 Fed's Interest Rate Cut in October, Post - Meeting Statement Slightly Hawkish - On October 30, the Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00%, which was in line with market expectations. Fed Chairman Powell said that the December interest rate cut path was not preset, and the market interpreted it as hawkish. The probability of a December rate cut declined, and gold and US stocks oscillated lower in the short term [50]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Data Analysis: Economic Slowdown in Q3, Widening Gap between Domestic and External Demand in September, Policy Boost Needed - In Q3, GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points lower than in Q2, indicating increased economic growth pressure. From the perspective of the production method, the year - on - year growth rates of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries were 4.0%, 4.2%, and 5.4% respectively. From the perspective of the expenditure method, the contributions of final consumption expenditure, capital formation, and net exports to the economy in Q3 were 56.6%, 18.9%, and 24.5% respectively. In September, the gap between domestic and external demand widened further, and the cumulative investment growth rate turned negative. The domestic demand slowed down, while the external demand accelerated. The growth rate of fixed - asset investment turned negative, and the decline in real estate investment continued to expand [51][52]. 3.4 Liquidity Analysis: Margin Trading Balance Continuously Breaking Through, Slowdown in Household Deposit Transfer in September, Possibly Affected by Market Volatility - In October, the new social financing scale was 3.53 trillion yuan, 233.9 billion yuan less than the same period last year. The growth rate of social financing stock was 8.70%. The new RMB loans were 1608.1 billion yuan, 366.1 billion yuan less than the same period last year. M1 increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and M2 increased by 8.4% year - on - year. In the stock market, margin trading funds continued to drive the market up in October, but the growth rate slowed down. As of October 30, the A - share margin trading balance was 2499.048 billion yuan, an increase of 104.932 billion yuan compared with the end of September, with the increment decreasing by 62.457 billion yuan compared with the previous month. The proportion of A - share margin trading purchases in the total market turnover was 11.45% as of October 30, a decrease of 0.38 percentage points compared with the end of September, at the 97.65% percentile level in the past ten years. Since September, market volatility has intensified, leading to a slowdown in household deposit transfer [63][72]. 4. Market Outlook and Trading Strategies - Externally, after the Sino - US leaders' meeting in Busan, South Korea, although the negotiation results were positive, the market weakened after the positive news landed. Domestically, the economic data in September showed increased fundamental pressure, and policies were needed to boost the economy. The "15th Five - Year Plan" provided policy guidance for the future market style. In terms of liquidity, the margin trading balance continued to break through historical highs and was currently oscillating at a high level. Future Fed rate cuts may bring new liquidity, but the slowdown in household deposit transfer needs further observation. Overall, with the easing of the external environment and the new policy expectations injected by the "15th Five - Year Plan", the stock index is expected to continue its medium - to long - term strong trend after short - term shock consolidation at the key pressure level of 4,000 points on the Shanghai Composite Index. The market style should still focus on the dumbbell strategy, with balanced allocation of CSI 300 and CSI 500 [73]