以下文章来源于一德菁英汇 ，作者一德菁菁 一德菁英汇 . 期货交易者的紧密合作伙伴！ 2512合约：单边不宜过分看空，下探后可适当关注反弹介入机会； 文 | 车美超 来源 | 一德菁英汇 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 要点速览 直接原因 主要船司竞相下调9月中下旬及10月初的现货运价，以价换量，即期运价承压。 基本面 供应端：新船交付长期压制运价、运力未来供给压力巨大、短期供给依然充足、欧洲港口拥堵缓解有效运力释放。 需求端：货量结构分化、海运需求边际减弱、船司控价能力减弱。 后市策略 2510合约：短期运价恐有进一步下行压力，估值有5%的下行空间； 套利：EC2602-EC2606正套机会。 在船司竞相调降欧洲航线现货运价的带动下，集运指数（欧线）期货跟随下跌，周四（9月11日）主力EC2510合约大幅下挫5.28%至1203.8 点，成交量明显放大，市场交易供需基本面边际趋弱逻辑。据最新市场调研了解，当前欧线市场货量并没有出现急剧的减少，不过由于海运 需求端缺乏进一步增量，且在运力供给相对过剩的压力下，船商纷纷采取降价策略来提高揽货率，导致即期运价持续承压。 根据今日（9月11日）在线报价显示， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Today, the futures prices of each contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) opened with a significant upward movement, then fluctuated, and declined near the close. All contracts' prices ended the day higher. The significant increase in today's futures prices was due to the US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals ruling that most of the global tariff measures implemented by former President Trump were illegal, bringing positive macro - sentiment, and the upward trend of US - line freight rates also had a spill - over effect on the market. Additionally, MSC announced a blank - sailing plan for the Asia - Europe route, which was favorable for the futures price from a supply perspective. Looking ahead, Maersk's new weekly opening quotes continued to decline, and the likelihood of EC futures prices oscillating or oscillating downward was relatively high [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - **Position Management**: For those who have already obtained shipping positions but face full capacity or poor booking volumes during the off - peak peak season and are worried about falling freight rates, with a long spot exposure, they can short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) to lock in profits, with a recommended selling entry range of 1350 - 1450 [1]. - **Cost Management**: When shipping companies increase blank - sailing efforts or the market is about to enter the peak season, and they want to book cabins according to orders, with a short spot exposure, they can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at present to determine the booking cost in advance, with a recommended buying entry range of 1150 - 1250 [1]. 3.2 Market Sentiment Factors 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - On August 29th local time, the US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that most of the global tariff measures implemented by former President Trump were illegal. These measures could remain in effect until October 14th to allow the US government to appeal to the Supreme Court. This ruling did not affect tariffs imposed under other regulations [2]. - On September 1st local time, due to expected slowdown in demand during the Golden Week holiday, MSC planned to adjust the shipping capacity on the Asia - Europe route from Week 39 to Week 41, canceling a total of four voyages [2]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - Maersk's new weekly opening quotes continued to decline, and the decline remained basically the same [3]. - The SCFIS European Line index accelerated its decline [3]. 3.3 EC Data 3.3.1 EC Basis Daily Changes - On September 3, 2025, the basis of EC2510 was 432.90 points, with a daily decrease of 49.30 points and a weekly decrease of 238.40 points. Other contracts also showed varying degrees of decline [4]. 3.3.2 EC Prices and Spreads - On September 3, 2025, the closing price of EC2510 was 1340.7 points, with a daily increase of 3.82% and a weekly increase of 1.65%. Different contracts had different price changes and spreads [4]. 3.3.3 EC Main Contract Speculation and Closing Price - Relevant data and trends are presented graphically, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [5]. 3.3.4 EC Main Contract Basis - Relevant data and trends are presented graphically, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [5]. 3.4 Container Shipping Spot Quotes - On September 11, Maersk's 20GP total quote for Shanghai - Rotterdam was $1175, up $10 from the previous period, and the 40GP total quote was $1970, up $20. On September 18, the 20GP opening quote was $1020, up $120 from the previous week, and the 40GP opening quote was $1700, up $200 [6]. - In the second week of September, Evergreen's 20GP total quote for Shanghai - Rotterdam was $1455, down $150 from the previous period, and the 40GP total quote was $2210, down $200 [6]. 3.5 Global Freight Rate Indexes - The latest value of SCFIS for the European route was 1773.6 points, down 216.6 points (-10.88%) from the previous value. Different global freight rate indexes showed different changes [7]. - The FBX comprehensive freight rate index was $1997 per FEU, down $11 (-0.55%) from the previous value [7]. 3.6 Global Major Port Waiting Times - On September 2, 2025, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port was 0.760 days, an increase of 0.321 days from the previous day. Different ports had different waiting time changes [14]. 3.7 Ship Speed and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Ports - On September 2, 2025, the speed of 8000 + container ships was 15.804 knots, a decrease of 0.022 knots from the previous day. The number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorages remained at 17 [22].

Report Overview - **Date**: July 14, 2025 - **Subject**: Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Analysts**: Huang Liunan, Zheng Yujie 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The past week saw the container shipping index fluctuate and strengthen slightly. In the short - term, the market freight rate remained stable around $3350/FEU. Looking ahead to August, there is likely a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand at the monthly level. Freight rates may start to decline more rapidly in late August. For the strategy, it is recommended to hold a light short position for the 10 - contract and consider a pyramid - style build - up, with the upper pressure level at 1500 points. For the 2508 contract, pay attention to the opportunity of lightly testing long positions for delivery in the range of 1950 - 2000 points [9][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Fundamental Data of Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Futures**: EC2508 closed at 2,030.6, down 0.71%; EC2510 at 1,382.0, down 1.40%; EC2512 at 1,540.9, down 1.48% [1] - **Freight Rate Index**: SCFIS European route was 2,258.04 points, up 6.3% week - on - week; SCFIS US West route was 1,557.77 points, down 3.8% week - on - week. SCFI European route was $2,099/TEU, down 0.1% bi - weekly; SCFI US West route was $2,194/FEU, up 5.0% bi - weekly [1] - **Spot Freight Rates**: Rates for different carriers from Shanghai to Rotterdam varied, with prices for 40'GP ranging from $3110 - $3845 and for 20'GP from $1855 - $2604 [1] - **Exchange Rates**: The US Dollar Index was 97.86, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.17 [1] 3.2 Market Freight Rate Conditions - In late July, MSC and Yang Ming reduced prices, while the Gemini Alliance had a slight increase. The OA and PA Alliances, including ONE and HMM, kept their rates. The market freight rate remained stable around $3350/FEU [9] - Different alliances and carriers had different rate adjustments in July. For example, the FAK price of MSC decreased from $3640/FEU in early July to $3440/FEU in late July [9][10] 3.3 Shipping Capacity - The weekly average shipping capacity in July was 30.1 million TEU/week. In the past week, Maersk's overtime ship was redirected, and the capacity in week 31 was revised down to 33.5 million TEU [11] - The weekly average shipping capacity in August is 31.5 million TEU/week. Potential changes include whether Evergreen's "EVER GOVERN" will be dispatched, whether Maersk will send an overtime ship, and the situation of ship schedule delays [11] - In September, there are 2 empty sailings and 8 pending voyages. Excluding pending voyages, the weekly average shipping capacity is 29.3 million TEU/week, but this value has limited reference significance for now [11] 3.4 Shipping Company Loading and Rate Adjustment - The Gemini and OA Alliances had a relatively high proportion of long - term contracts, and their loading in late July was optimistic. MSC increased its shipping capacity in late July, faced more pressure in cargo collection, and reduced its FAK list price by $200/FEU. Only Yang Ming followed with a $100/FEU reduction [12] 3.5 Future Freight Rate Forecast and Strategy - **Neutral Scenario**: Spot FAK may be revised down to $3100 - $3200/FEU in wk31 and wk32, and then decreased by $200/FEU in wk33 and wk34. The neutral valuation of 08 is around 2050 points, and the delivery settlement price of 2508 may be in the range of 2050 - 2150 points [13] - **Pessimistic Scenario**: If Maersk adds a new overtime ship in wk33, it may cut prices to stock up in wk32, leading other carriers to cut prices, and the delivery settlement price of 2508 may move down to the range of 1950 - 2050 points [13] - **Optimistic Scenario**: If the OA Alliance raises prices in wk31 and wk32, the 2508 contract may have at least 200 points of premium water market [13] - **Strategy**: Hold a light short position for the 10 - contract and consider a pyramid - style build - up, with the upper pressure level at 1500 points. For the 2508 contract, pay attention to the opportunity of lightly testing long positions for delivery in the range of 1950 - 2000 points [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates a significant increase in the shipping index (European route) futures, with the main contract reaching 1353.4 points, reflecting a rise of 7.07% [1] - The latest SCFIS European route settlement price index is reported at 1379.07, down by 50.32 points from the previous week, representing a decrease of 3.5% [2] - China's export to ASEAN in April saw a year-on-year increase of 20.8%, accelerating by 9.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, while exports to the EU grew by over 8% [2] Group 2 - According to Nanhua Futures, the macro sentiment's impact on futures prices is currently limited, with ongoing oversupply leading to a continued downward trend in European route shipping rates [3] - The latest SCFI European route freight index is reported at $1161 per TEU, reflecting a decrease of 3.25% [3] - Guangzhou Futures highlights the ongoing US-China trade talks in Geneva, with market expectations for potential tariff easing, although there remains pressure from ample shipping capacity [3]