Report Industry Investment Rating - The medium - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] Core View of the Report - The release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal boosts market confidence, and most varieties in the black sector showed an upward trend in the day and night sessions. Although policy implementation is long - term, market sentiment may be further boosted later. However, as the off - season approaches, the weakening of fundamentals is likely to limit the upward space of sector prices [1][2][6] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Situation of the Black Building Materials Industry - **Market Sentiment**: The release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal has a positive impact on market sentiment, and there is potential for further improvement [1][2][6] - **Industry Outlook**: In the medium term, the industry is expected to oscillate. The fundamentals may weaken as the off - season begins, restricting price increases [6] 2. Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The marginal weakening expectation of the fundamentals remains. Due to Tangshan's production restrictions and seasonal maintenance, the decline in hot metal output is expected. The arrival of domestic ores will be stable, and inventory will increase marginally. However, considering the decrease in the weight of fundamental pricing and the warming of macro - expectations, there is still support for periodic upward movement during the oscillation of ore prices [2] - **Scrap Steel**: The fundamental contradictions of scrap steel are not prominent, and its price is expected to follow the trend of finished products in the short term [2][11] 3. Carbon Element - **Coke**: Environmental protection production restrictions affect both supply and demand, but the overall impact is limited in Hebei. The short - term supply - demand structure is still tight, and the price is expected to oscillate [2] - **Coking Coal**: The supply recovery is slow, and subsequent increments are limited. The middle and lower reaches are actively purchasing, and the inventory of upstream coal mines remains low. With the positive macro - environment, there is support for periodic upward movement during the oscillation of coal prices [2] 4. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Cost reduction is limited, and high steel production supports the price. However, the market has a pessimistic supply - demand expectation, and there is obvious upward pressure on the price [3] - **Silicon Iron**: High finished product output and strong cost support the price, but the supply - demand relationship is loose, and the upward price space is expected to be limited [3] 5. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: As the meeting approaches, market expectations improve, and there is positive feedback space after the rebound of the disk price. However, considering the inventory levels of the middle and lower reaches, the restocking space is limited, and the rebound space is expected to be limited. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price may continue to oscillate downward [3][15] - **Soda Ash**: The oversupply situation remains unchanged. It is expected to fluctuate widely following the macro - environment, and the long - term price center will move down to promote capacity reduction [3] 6. Specific Analysis of Each Variety - **Steel**: The macro - environment is warm, but the actual steel inventory is high year - on - year, and the upward space is limited. Attention should be paid to relevant domestic policies and the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations [8] - **Iron Ore**: The macro - atmosphere is warm, and the disk price is strengthening. The fundamentals are slightly weakening, but overall contradictions are not significant. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [9][10] - **Scrap Steel**: The arrival volume remains low, and the electric furnace profit is recovering. The price is expected to follow the finished products in the short term [11] - **Coke**: Both supply and demand are weakening, and the disk is oscillating. The impact of environmental protection production restrictions is limited, and the price is expected to oscillate [13] - **Coking Coal**: The supply recovery is slow, and the inventory of upstream coal mines is low. The price is expected to oscillate with support for periodic upward movement [14] - **Glass**: As the meeting approaches, expectations improve, and there is positive feedback space after the rebound, but the rebound space is limited. In the long - term, the price may oscillate downward [15] - **Soda Ash**: The output is increasing month - on - month, and the market is operating stably. It is expected to oscillate widely following the macro - environment, and the long - term price center will move down [16][17] - **Manganese Silicon**: The short - term price is supported, but the supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and there is obvious upward pressure [18] - **Silicon Iron**: High finished product output and strong cost support the price, but the supply - demand relationship is loose, and the upward price space is limited [19]

Policy Outlook - Moody's Analytics suggests it's premature to anticipate significant policy shifts in Japan following Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru's decision to resign [1] - Analysts are likely to characterize moderates as cautious technocrats and conservatives as free-spending, perpetually reliant on the Bank of Japan to maintain a weak yen [1] - Even moderates favoring fiscal austerity must contend with voter discontent over inflation and the rise of right-wing populism [1] - Conservatives advocating for expanded budgets need to acknowledge that the economy requires more than just demand-side stimulus [1] - The notion that a prime minister from the conservative camp would prompt the Bank of Japan to maintain unchanged interest rates is an oversimplification [1] - Additional fiscal support could stimulate demand and price pressures, potentially supporting interest rate hikes [1] - The next leader will face a delicate balancing act [1]

Group 1 - The report highlights a shift in the macro narrative affecting the A-share market, driven by internal policies aimed at demand stimulation and external factors such as a weakening dollar [5][6]. - The report identifies a rotation in investment focus from TMT and manufacturing sectors to other areas, suggesting a potential shift in market dynamics [5][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high-low switching strategies in the technology sector, recommending stocks like Kunlun Wanwei, Leisai Intelligent, and Jingchen Co. for investment [5][10][14]. Group 2 - Kunlun Wanwei is focusing on AI business development, with significant advancements in AI chip research and application, leading to a positive outlook for its commercialization potential [10][11]. - Leisai Intelligent is expanding its market share in the automation sector, leveraging its strong product matrix and partnerships to capture growth opportunities [14][15]. - Jingchen Co. is experiencing robust growth in its AIoT and WiFi chip segments, with significant sales increases and a strong customer base [19][20]. Group 3 - Conch Cement is positioned to benefit from supply-side reforms and industry policy improvements, which are expected to enhance profitability and market conditions [24][25]. - Luzhou Laojiao is implementing proactive marketing strategies to adapt to market cycles, aiming to capture demand in emerging consumer segments [30][31]. - Jerry Holdings is poised for recovery as it capitalizes on the resurgence of high-end liquor demand and maintains a strong digital marketing framework [34][35]. Group 4 - New Hope Liuhe is leveraging its integrated supply chain advantages in the fine chemical sector, focusing on vitamin and amino acid production to enhance competitiveness [39][40]. - Xinhecheng is expected to benefit from rising prices in the vitamin market and increased demand for its amino acid products, supported by its strong production capabilities [39][41]. - Newnovel is projected to see significant revenue growth driven by its innovative drug pipeline, particularly in the oncology sector [43][44]. Group 5 - The report anticipates that the financial technology sector, represented by companies like Zhinan Zhen, will continue to grow as it transitions into comprehensive financial service providers [48][49]. - Zhinan Zhen's strategic acquisitions and capital operations are expected to enhance its market position and profitability in the coming years [48][50].