Group 1 - The media industry is expected to be driven by AI applications and IP ecosystems, with a positive outlook for fundamentals, maintaining a "leading the market - A" rating, and recommending Kunlun Wanwei, Shanghai Film, and Deyuan Network as key investment targets [1][3] - In 2025, the media industry achieved a cumulative index increase of 27.17%, ranking 9th among 31 primary sub-industries, with the gaming and television broadcasting sectors leading with increases of 60.50% and 20.80% respectively [1][21] - The industry generated revenue of 387.28 billion yuan and a net profit of 32.11 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 5.75% and 37.88% respectively, with notable profit growth in the film and gaming sectors at 108.5% and 88.6% [1][26] Group 2 - The AI sector is becoming a core growth engine, with global AI application MAUs exceeding 1.5 billion and domestic MAUs reaching 540 million in 2025, with a projected global market size of over $1.8 trillion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 37.3% [2][40] - The film industry is expected to progress steadily in 2025, with total box office revenue reaching 51.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.65%, driven by animated films, particularly "Nezha: Birth of the Demon Child," which grossed 15.4 billion yuan [2][59] - The gaming industry continues its growth trend, with a record 1,711 game licenses issued in 2025, and domestic market revenue of 350.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.68%, while overseas revenue reached $20.45 billion, up 10.23% [3][21] Group 3 - The report highlights three core investment targets: Kunlun Wanwei, which maintains a leading position in AI technology; Shanghai Film, which is enhancing its market share in cinema operations and IP development; and Deyuan Network, which has a stable performance in classic IP and a rich pipeline of new products [3][21][57] - The gaming sector is benefiting from AI technology across all stages of development, with an application rate of 86.36%, leading to cost reductions and innovative gameplay experiences [3][21] - The report emphasizes the transition in the film industry from quantity to quality, with an increase in high-quality content supply expected for the 2026 Spring Festival [2][59]

交易所数据显示，2月12日，昆仑万维开盘略低于前收盘价，早盘短暂冲高后回落，随即在区间内震荡调 整。午后开盘逐步企稳回升，13：25起动能显著增强，开启强劲拉升行情，价格快速攀升，相继突破多 个整数关口，最高触及64.15，之后在高位维持震荡整理，截至13：51走势强劲，午后的拉升成为当日截 至目前的核心特征。 据公司公告，2025年其收入预计同比增长超过40%，海外收入占比进一步提升，同时在市场推广和研发 方面持续加大投入。中国银河指出，2026年AI应用将从可用转向好用阶段，昆仑万维作为大模型及MaaS 厂商之一，受到领域内重点关注。 注：本文由AI根据市场公开信息生成，不构成投资建议，投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 来源：市场资讯 | 分时 五日 日K 周K 月K 5分 15分 30分 60分 | | | 五档盘口 | | 明细 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 最新:63.80 涨跌额:7.25 涨跌幅:+12.82% | | 均价:59.38 2026-02-12 13:54 | 委比 +5.57% | | 委差 64.90 | | 64.15 | | 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - Kunlun Wanwei is expected to continue its losses in 2025, with a projected net profit loss of between -1.95 billion to -1.35 billion yuan, compared to -1.595 billion yuan in the previous year, indicating ongoing financial challenges despite a focus on AI investments [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts a revenue increase of over 40% for 2025, but net profit is still expected to be negative, with a projected loss of -1.95 billion to -1.35 billion yuan, and a loss of -2.048 billion to -1.448 billion yuan when excluding non-recurring gains and losses [2][12]. - Marketing expenses have doubled to 2.891 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, significantly outpacing the growth of R&D expenditures, which increased by only 5.83% to 1.211 billion yuan [6][12]. Strategic Focus - Kunlun Wanwei has shifted its strategic focus to AI, emphasizing a full-chain approach that includes computing power, large model algorithms, and AI applications, with significant investments in marketing and R&D [1][12]. - The company has launched several industry-leading large models and AI applications, including the Tian Gong Super Intelligent Agent, which aims to reshape AI office and content creation methods [2][12]. Market Position and Challenges - Despite its ambitious AI strategy, Kunlun Wanwei faces significant competition from larger cloud service providers like Alibaba Cloud and Tencent Cloud, which have more robust infrastructure and industry solutions [13]. - The company's AI applications are primarily seen as functional enhancements rather than disruptive innovations, leading to weaker user payment willingness and reliance on marketing subsidies for user growth [13].

资料来源：常闻 | 首选股票 | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | | 300418.SZ | 昆仑万维 | 买入-A | | 601595.SH | 上海电影 | 买入-A | | 603258.SH | 电魂网络 | 增持-A | 相关报告： 潘宁河 执业登记编码：S0760523110001 邮箱：panninghe@sxzq.com 林挺 执业登记编码：S0760524100003 邮箱：linting@sxzq.com 传媒 行业年度策略报告 领先大市-A(维持) AI 应用+IP 生态双轮驱动，行业基本面有望持续向好 2026 年 2 月 10 日 行业研究/行业年度策略 投资要点： 传媒业绩增速向上，AI、游戏驱动指数上涨。2025 年全年，传媒指数 累计上涨 27.17%，位于申万 31 个一级子行业的第 9 名。传媒子板块中，游 戏、电视广播涨幅分别为 60.50%、20.80%，涨幅较为领先。2025 年 Q1-Q3， 传媒行业实现营收 3872.78 亿元，同比+5.75%；实现归母净利润 321.09 亿元， 同比+37.88%。子板块中，影视、游戏行业板块利润表现 ...

Core Viewpoint - Kunlun Wanwei is strategically shifting its focus from competing directly with major players in the AI field to building a differentiated competitive advantage in vertical markets and overseas expansion, aiming for long-term market positioning and ecological advantages rather than short-term profitability [2][9]. Financial Performance - For 2025, Kunlun Wanwei forecasts a net loss attributable to shareholders between 1.35 billion to 1.95 billion yuan, continuing the previous year's loss trend [2][3]. - The company expects a revenue increase of over 40% year-on-year for 2025, with a growing share of overseas revenue [2]. - The median loss forecast for 2025 is similar to the previous year's loss of 1.595 billion yuan [3]. Research and Development - Kunlun Wanwei's R&D expenditures from 2021 to 2024 were 628 million, 736 million, 1 billion, and 1.598 billion yuan respectively, with 2025's first three quarters seeing R&D spending of 1.211 billion yuan, primarily focused on AGI and AIGC [3][4]. Marketing and Sales - Sales expenses from 2021 to 2024 were 1.473 billion, 1.566 billion, 1.62 billion, and 2.304 billion yuan, with 2025's first three quarters reaching 2.891 billion yuan, aimed at global promotion of AI applications [4]. Product Development and Innovation - Kunlun Wanwei has developed various AI models and applications, including the Skywork series and the Skywork Super Agents, which focus on enhancing productivity and multi-modal content creation [5][6]. - The company has made significant advancements in AI music with Mureka, achieving a positive gross profit for the first time and generating an annual revenue of approximately 12 million dollars [6][7]. Market Positioning - The company has positioned itself as an "AI mid-tier" player, focusing on niche markets and avoiding direct competition with larger firms, which allows it to find survival space and opportunities for growth [3][9]. - The short drama segment has emerged as an unexpected growth point, with revenue expected to reach 1.68 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 900% year-on-year increase [8]. Future Outlook - Kunlun Wanwei anticipates that 2026 will be a pivotal year for transitioning from an investment phase to a revenue realization phase, with projections indicating a narrowing of losses and potential profitability by 2027 [10]. - The company's total market capitalization as of February 6 was 68.8 billion yuan, with a target market value estimated at 93.2 billion yuan based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation [11].

Core Viewpoint - Kunlun Wanwei has completed the full industry chain layout of "computing power - model - AI application," demonstrating its commercialization capability with a short drama business annualized revenue exceeding $240 million [1] Group 1: Business Performance - The short drama business has achieved an annualized revenue of over $240 million, validating its commercial potential [1] - The DramaWave short drama platform shows a steep growth curve in Monthly Recurring Revenue (MRR) [1] Group 2: Future Growth Prospects - The Tian Gong Super Intelligent Body is set to initiate a second growth curve in productivity scenarios such as AI search, AI music, and AI social [1] - The company is expected to transition from the investment phase to the realization phase in 2026 [1] Group 3: Valuation and Rating - Using the Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuation method, the target market value is set at 93.2 billion yuan, corresponding to a target price of 74.3 yuan [1] - The initial coverage gives a "Buy" rating for the stock [1]

Market Overview - On February 4, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.85%, and the CSI 300 increased by 0.83%. The STAR Market 50 fell by 1.2%, the CSI 1000 decreased by 0.02%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.4%. The Hang Seng Index saw a slight increase of 0.05% [4]. - The best-performing sectors on February 4 were coal (+7.58%), building materials (+3.48%), real estate (+2.97%), transportation (+2.82%), and food and beverage (+2.33%). The worst-performing sectors included media (-3.12%), telecommunications (-2.73%), computers (-1.7%), and electronics (-1.55%) [4]. - The total trading volume for the A-share market on February 4 was 25,033 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 13.373 billion HKD from southbound funds [4]. Important Recommendations Nanjing Bank (601009) - The market is concerned about a potential slowdown in Nanjing Bank's 2026 earnings growth due to significant contributions from investment income and reduced demand after the conversion of convertible bonds. However, it is expected that the bank can maintain a leading growth rate among listed banks, with ROE entering an upward channel driven by scale expansion, stable net interest margins, and substantial investment gains [5]. - The market fears that ROE and dividends will be diluted post-conversion, making the investment less attractive. Nevertheless, Nanjing Bank's dividend yield is above the sector average, and its valuation still has room compared to other quality city commercial banks, supported by continuous shareholding increases and a strong chip structure [5]. - The target price is set at 16.26 yuan per share, corresponding to a 2026 PB of 1.00 times, indicating a potential upside of 54% from the current price [5]. - Expected net profit growth for Nanjing Bank from 2025 to 2027 is projected at 8.08%, 9.54%, and 8.86%, with corresponding BPS of 14.64, 16.26, and 17.69 yuan per share [5]. Kunlun Wanwei (300418) - Kunlun Wanwei has completed a full industry chain layout for AI, transitioning from a pure investment phase to a monetization phase. The short drama business achieved an annualized revenue of over 240 million USD in 2025, validating its commercialization capability. The DramaWave platform shows steep growth in monthly recurring revenue, and the Tian Gong super-intelligent system is expected to open new productivity scenarios in AI search, music, and social applications [7]. - Key drivers include the strong commercialization of short dramas overseas and significant advancements in AI chip development [7].

昆仑万维(300418) 报告日期：2026 年 02 月 04 日 证券研究报告 | 公司深度 | 游戏Ⅱ A 股稀缺大模型及出海应用龙头，从纯投入期到兑现期 ——昆仑万维深度报告 投资要点 一句话逻辑 公司已完成"算力—模型—AI 应用"AI 全产业链布局，短剧业务 25 年年化流水 突破 2.4 亿美元验证商业化能力，DramaWave 短剧平台等 MRR 增长曲线陡峭， 天工超级智能体开启 AI 搜索、AI 音乐、AI 社交等生产力场景第二增长曲线，26 年将从投入期转向兑现期。 超预期逻辑 1）短剧出海商业化强度超预期：DramaWave 平台 8 月已跃居海外短剧收入榜第 三位，25 年 12 月环比增长 35.4%，位列收入榜第四。25 年 12 月下载量环比上涨 超 90%，成为 Top 15 中涨幅最高的产品。预计 25 年短剧收入同比增长 900%至 16.8 亿元，26-27 年持续加速增长，成为核心现金流引擎。 2）AI 智能体商业化落地或提前突破：公司先后发布并开源多款行业领先模型， 搭建全链路 AI 应用矩阵，以天工超级智能体为核心，联动 AI Developer、AI 视 频、A ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [9]. Core Insights - The company has completed the full industry chain layout of "computing power - model - AI application," transitioning from an investment phase to a monetization phase in 2026 [1]. - The short drama business has achieved an annualized revenue of over $240 million in 2025, validating its commercialization capability [1]. - The DramaWave platform has shown significant growth, ranking third in overseas short drama revenue as of August 2025, with a month-on-month revenue increase of 35.4% in December 2025 [2]. - The AI applications, particularly the TianGong Super Intelligent Agent, are expected to drive a second growth curve, with anticipated revenue growth in 2026 [2]. Summary by Sections Short Drama Business - The overseas short drama market is still in the early stages of penetration, with significant growth potential as the user base expands [19]. - The DramaWave platform has adopted a dual monetization model of "paid + free," effectively covering various consumer segments and achieving a 900% year-on-year revenue growth to reach 1.68 billion yuan in 2025 [18][19]. - The competitive landscape features two major players leading the market, with DramaWave rapidly rising to fourth place in terms of downloads [27]. AI Application Ecosystem - The company has built a comprehensive AI application matrix centered around the TianGong Super Intelligent Agent, which has shown strong commercial potential [43]. - The AI software technology revenue reached 65 million yuan in the first half of 2025, indicating the initial stages of commercialization [43]. - The Mureka AI Music platform is transitioning from a tool to a content and traffic entry point, with significant cost reductions in music production [49]. World Model Technology - The company has positioned itself as a leader in world model technology, with the Matrix-3D model enabling real-time interactive content generation, which is crucial for future growth [60][62]. - The Matrix-Game 2.0 model represents an upgrade in interactive world modeling, opening up new opportunities for the company [62]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 8.2 billion, 11.7 billion, and 14.8 billion yuan, respectively, with a target market capitalization of 93.2 billion yuan based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method [7][66]. - The report suggests that the company can be valued based on different segments, including short dramas, AI applications, and gaming, using various valuation methods [5][67].

Core Viewpoint - Kunlun Wanwei is expected to incur losses in 2025 due to continued heavy investments in AI large models, market promotion, and R&D [1] Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between -1.35 billion and -1.95 billion, compared to -1.59479 billion in the same period last year [2][8] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be between -1.448 billion and -2.048 billion, compared to -1.64338 billion in the same period last year [2][8] - Revenue is expected to grow by over 40% year-on-year, with an increasing proportion of overseas revenue [8] Business Developments - The company has made significant breakthroughs in AI large models, including the release of various models such as Skywork-Reward-V2 and Matrix-3D, while continuously iterating existing models [3][4] - The TianGong Super Intelligent Agent has integrated AI Agent architecture and Deep Research technology, focusing on enhancing office efficiency and multi-modal creation [4] - The AI music product Mureka has reached version V8, improving in multiple dimensions, and aims to provide a seamless music creation experience for users [5] Short Video Platform Growth - The short video business has become a significant growth driver, with the DramaWave platform achieving over 28 million monthly active users globally [6] - The FreeReels application has surpassed 40 million monthly active users, leveraging a "free to watch" strategy to gain market share in emerging markets [6] Technological Innovations - The Opera platform has launched the AI Agent browser Opera Neon, which enhances user interaction by automating web browsing and task execution [7] - The StarMaker platform has integrated AI technology for song and video creation, significantly boosting user growth [7] - The company plans to deepen the industrialization of AI technology and strengthen its global market presence to enhance its core competitiveness [7]