Core Viewpoint - LME copper prices declined on August 27 due to a stronger dollar, increased inventories, and demand concerns, ending a four-day rising streak [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - LME three-month copper fell by $81.5, or 0.83%, closing at $9,755.5 per ton, after reaching a peak of $9,862 per ton on August 26 [1][2]. - Other base metals also experienced declines, with three-month aluminum down by $35.5 (-1.35%), zinc down by $52 (-1.85%), and lead down by $3.5 (-0.18%) [2][6]. - In contrast, three-month tin rose by $355, or 1.04%, reaching $34,553, marking its highest level in about a month [2][6]. Group 2: Inventory and Demand - LME copper inventories increased by 1,100 tons, a 72% rise since the end of June, totaling 156,100 tons [5]. - COMEX copper inventories have nearly doubled this year, contributing to negative market sentiment [5]. - Analysts noted signs of slowing demand due to economic challenges, including tariffs and a downturn in the real estate sector [4]. Group 3: Economic Factors - The strengthening dollar has made dollar-denominated metals more expensive for buyers using other currencies [5]. - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve were reignited following the dismissal of a Fed governor, impacting investor sentiment [4].

Core Viewpoint - Cocoa futures in New York experienced a decline of 2.6%, reaching $8,076 per ton, highlighting concerns over demand due to a drop in processing volumes in Malaysia [1] Group 1 - Cocoa futures saw a significant drop, indicating potential market volatility [1] - The decline in processing volumes in Malaysia raises alarms about overall demand in the cocoa market [1]

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 6 月 17 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜震荡偏强，上涨 0.49%至 9695 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.45%至 78450 | | | | 元/吨；国内现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面，欧日纷纷表态，与美贸易谈判暂无取得 | | | | 较大进展。但相比贸易谈判，市场更加关注伊以冲突的进展，有报道称伊朗希望与美 | | | | 国和以色列对话，寻求结束敌对状态，只要美方不参与袭击，愿重返核问题谈判桌。 | | | | 对于铜的影响则在于市场风险偏好的变化。国内方面，5 月经济数据整体呈现"冷热 | | | | 不均"的格局。工业增加值表现尚可，社零增速明显提高，消费品以旧换新政策持续 | | | 铜 | 显效；房地产同比跌幅扩大，基建、制造业同比增速略有下降。库存方面，LME 库存 | | | | 下降 7150 吨至 107325 吨；Comex 库存增加 1193 吨至 17.9 万吨；SMM 周一统计全国 | | | | 精炼铜社会库存较上周四增加 0.29 万吨至 ...

因市场担忧高价将导致加工商减少可可豆使用量，同时关键产区的降雨将改善作物前景，可可价格从三 个月高位下跌。纽约市场最活跃合约一度下跌4.5%，至每吨10,410美元，创下自5月5日以来的最大日内 跌幅。而上周可可期货上涨近19%，为去年11月以来最大单周涨幅。 ...