Core Viewpoint - LME copper prices declined on August 27 due to a stronger dollar, increased inventories, and demand concerns, ending a four-day rising streak [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - LME three-month copper fell by $81.5, or 0.83%, closing at $9,755.5 per ton, after reaching a peak of $9,862 per ton on August 26 [1][2]. - Other base metals also experienced declines, with three-month aluminum down by $35.5 (-1.35%), zinc down by $52 (-1.85%), and lead down by $3.5 (-0.18%) [2][6]. - In contrast, three-month tin rose by $355, or 1.04%, reaching $34,553, marking its highest level in about a month [2][6]. Group 2: Inventory and Demand - LME copper inventories increased by 1,100 tons, a 72% rise since the end of June, totaling 156,100 tons [5]. - COMEX copper inventories have nearly doubled this year, contributing to negative market sentiment [5]. - Analysts noted signs of slowing demand due to economic challenges, including tariffs and a downturn in the real estate sector [4]. Group 3: Economic Factors - The strengthening dollar has made dollar-denominated metals more expensive for buyers using other currencies [5]. - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve were reignited following the dismissal of a Fed governor, impacting investor sentiment [4].

Core Viewpoint - Cocoa futures in New York experienced a decline of 2.6%, reaching $8,076 per ton, highlighting concerns over demand due to a drop in processing volumes in Malaysia [1] Group 1 - Cocoa futures saw a significant drop, indicating potential market volatility [1] - The decline in processing volumes in Malaysia raises alarms about overall demand in the cocoa market [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper trended strongly with a 0.49% increase to $9,695/ton, and SHFE copper rose 0.45% to 78,450 yuan/ton. The market is more concerned about the Israel-Iran conflict. In China, May economic data was mixed. LME copper inventory decreased by 7,150 tons, Comex increased by 1,193 tons, and domestic social inventory rose by 0.29 million tons. With the off - season, downstream demand is cautious. The conflict may increase concerns about demand. Considering LME's de - stocking and potential exports, a short - term oscillatory pattern is expected, with a focus on the 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton range [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina trended strongly, with AO2509 closing at 2,852 yuan/ton (0.18% increase), while Shanghai aluminum trended weakly, with AL2507 at 20,385 yuan/ton (0.02% decrease). Aluminum alloy trended strongly. Domestic alumina plants are resuming production, and the demand structure of electrolytic aluminum is further differentiated. The inventory of rods and ingots shows different trends, and the high - premium pattern of spot is hard to sustain. Pay attention to the convergence opportunity of the spread between AD and AL [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel fell 0.3% to $15,065/ton, and SHFE nickel dropped 0.48% to 119,100 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 126 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 21,041 tons. Nickel ore prices remained strong, and stainless steel production was cut in China and Indonesia, but inventory is still accumulating. In the new energy sector, prices are stable, and there is no significant new demand in June. In the short - term, focus on nickel ore premium and primary nickel inventory, and the medium - term fundamentals may be bearish [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On June 16, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 78,610 yuan/ton, down 305 yuan from June 13. LME registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 7,150 tons, and Comex inventory increased by 1,898 tons. The active contract's import loss widened by 100 yuan [4]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead on June 16 was 16,840 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. LME registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 1,500 tons, and the active contract's import loss increased by 30 yuan [4]. - **Aluminum**: On June 16, the Wuxi and Nanhai quotes decreased, and the spot premium changed from - 210 yuan/ton to - 10 yuan/ton. LME registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 2,025 tons, and alumina social inventory decreased by 0.6 million tons [5]. - **Nickel**: On June 16, the price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 875 yuan/ton. LME registered + cancelled inventory increased by 5,412 tons, and the active contract's import loss increased by 360 yuan [5]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price on June 16 was 21,800 yuan/ton, down 0.7%. LME S3 remained unchanged. The domestic spot premium decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The active contract's import loss changed from - 614 yuan to 0 yuan [6]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price on June 16 was 264,530 yuan/ton, up 0.1%. LME S3 decreased by 2.1%. The active contract's import loss changed from - 17,631 yuan to 0 yuan [6]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][20][21]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [22][24][26]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts illustrate the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts display the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [42][44][46]. 3.3 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of experience. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum and silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium and nickel research, both providing in - depth reports and policy interpretations [49][50].

因市场担忧高价将导致加工商减少可可豆使用量，同时关键产区的降雨将改善作物前景，可可价格从三 个月高位下跌。纽约市场最活跃合约一度下跌4.5%，至每吨10,410美元，创下自5月5日以来的最大日内 跌幅。而上周可可期货上涨近19%，为去年11月以来最大单周涨幅。 ...