推送广发期货研究所的最新报告和观点 作者 | 周敏波 来源 | 广发期货研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 以下文章来源于广发期货研究 ，作者研究所 广发期货研究 . 盘面自身的结构矛盾成为加剧价格下跌的另一催化。自1月起，期货盘面持续升水现货，期现贸易商交割套利意愿强烈，导致 仓单注册量激增。截至2月2 6日，氧化铝期货仓单注册量达34.97万吨，创历史新高，较年初大增19.2万吨。若短期冶炼端或矿 端无明显催化，后续仓单集中到期后的流出压力，或将驱动期货价格再次探底。 0 3 铝土矿价格下行空间有限，几内亚当局是否挺价成为当前远期价格博弈关键点 行情导读 今日氧化铝期货合约破位下跌，放量突破近期箱体下沿。截至2月27日下午3点收盘，主力合约AO2605下跌3.65%，收报2744元/吨。 从资金面看，2月26日及27日主力合约两日增仓7.28万手至37.79万手的总持仓，龙虎榜数据显示机构空头大幅增持，前20席位净持仓 维持净空格局，空头力量占据明显优势。 供给短期收缩难抵过剩现实，减产利好钝化 0 1 受氧化铝价格持续低位运行、氧化铝厂利润空间收窄及春节假期影响，近期行业产能检修有所增加。截至 ...

新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 宏观层面，美元反弹，全球股市大面积下挫，市场风险情绪降温。加之铜、铝、锡、镍、锌等金属价格 联动大跌，空头力量增强，氧化铝期货价格也随之承压下行。 基本面方面，前期广西进行检修的两家氧化铝厂，计划分别于 7 日和 9 日复产，且临近春节，选择放假 检修的企业预计增多。上期所仓单库存数据显示，氧化铝期货仓库仓单达 196344 吨，增加 6944 吨；厂 库仓单为 0 吨，与前日持平。这一情况在一定程度上限制了氧化铝期货价格的反弹空间。现货市场，现 货价格企稳，持货商存在挺价意愿，但下游企业观望情绪浓厚。本周多数企业已进入假期，入场补货需 求愈发低迷，刚需采购意愿持续降低，拖累全天成交表现。 综合来看，春节前夕市场交投活跃度预计较低，叠加氧化铝供应过剩压力依旧存在，且市场对年后及 3 月份新增产能投产的预期压力较大，氧化铝价格上方承压明显，预计将维持低位震荡态势。 长江有色金属网www.ccmn.cn 电话：0592-5668838 长江有色网2月5日讯，今日氧化铝所有合约集体下行，主力月2605合约低开低走，盘面走势疲弱；截止 当日15：00收盘，氧化铝主力月2605合 ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market saw most major contracts rise, with platinum increasing over 10%, silver over 8%, and lithium carbonate over 7% on January 23, 2026 [2][6] - Synthetic rubber futures hit the limit up with a rise of 6.99%, while ethylene glycol also reached the limit up with a 5.99% increase [2][6] - In contrast, SC crude oil experienced a decline of nearly 1% [2][6] Group 2 - Long-term bullish support exists in the upstream market, as Southeast Asian natural rubber production areas enter a reduction season, with prices for Thai STR20 rising by 2.1% to $1450 per ton as of January 22 [4][8] - There is a shortage of raw materials for synthetic rubber, which has further impacted the prices of No. 20 rubber and natural rubber, leading to a strong increase in BR rubber futures prices [4][8] - The downstream performance is also favorable, with the operating rate of rubber tire factories increasing. As of January 15, 2026, the operating load of all-steel tires in Shandong rubber tire enterprises was 62.84%, up 2.30% week-on-week and 2.78% year-on-year [4][8]

Core Insights - Cocoa futures in New York are on track for a sixth consecutive month of decline, marking the longest downturn in nearly nine years due to persistent bearish fundamentals [1] - The most active cocoa contract has dropped 14% this month, with prices falling below $5,000 per ton, reaching the lowest level since February 2024 [1] - Factors contributing to the price suppression include improved supply prospects from West Africa, the EU's delay and potential weakening of deforestation regulations, and the U.S. announcement on November 14 to exclude cocoa and other agricultural products from reciprocal tariffs [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the glass futures market has experienced a decline, with the main contract dropping by 2% to a price of 976.00 yuan per ton [1]

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline in styrene futures prices since late September is attributed to multiple factors, including a sharp drop in oil prices and weak fundamentals in the styrene market [1][2]. Group 1: Price Decline Factors - Styrene futures prices began to decline from a high of 7831 yuan/ton in late June 2025, reaching a low of 6437 yuan/ton by October 16 [1]. - The drop in oil prices is a major factor affecting styrene prices, driven by geopolitical risks, trade tensions, and an oversupply situation as the demand season ends [1][2]. - The overall chemical product prices have also fallen due to macroeconomic disturbances and OPEC+ production increases, impacting styrene prices [1]. Group 2: Supply and Inventory Dynamics - Styrene's weak fundamentals are reflected in rising port inventories and a marginal weakening in the upstream pure benzene supply-demand balance [2]. - As of mid-October, styrene inventories at East China ports were around 200,000 tons, significantly higher than the approximately 40,000 tons from the same period last year, marking a five-year high [2]. - Despite maintenance activities reducing production slightly, the overall supply remains high, and demand has also decreased, leading to a continued oversupply situation [2][3]. Group 3: Industry Chain Analysis - The basic fundamentals of pure benzene, the direct raw material for styrene, are also weak, with expectations of declining demand due to losses in downstream products [3]. - High hidden inventories of pure benzene, concentrated in styrene plants, are expected to keep production rates high, as plants are unlikely to significantly reduce output to maintain market share [3]. - The entire industry chain, including pure benzene, styrene, and downstream synthetic materials, is experiencing historically high inventory levels, which will take time to alleviate [3]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Short-term reversal of styrene prices is considered difficult, with potential for a temporary rebound due to supply constraints from geopolitical factors [4]. - For a price reversal to occur, improvements in oil prices, upstream pure benzene fundamentals, and downstream orders are necessary [5]. - The likelihood of a decrease in styrene inventory and low valuation suggests that overly bearish views may not be warranted, although new production capacity and oil price declines pose challenges [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in urea futures and spot prices is attributed to weak market sentiment and an oversupply situation, leading to a bearish outlook for the urea market in the short term [1][4][5]. Price Trends - On September 9, urea futures fell below the 1700 yuan/ton mark, closing at 1669 yuan/ton on September 10, a decrease of 1.01% [1]. - In the spot market, prices also declined, with small particle urea prices in major domestic production areas like Shandong and Henan ranging from 1640 to 1700 yuan/ton, while prices in the northern Xinjiang region were between 1410 and 1500 yuan/ton [3]. Market Sentiment - Market sentiment is cautious, with manufacturers having varying pressures based on their export orders. Companies with export orders maintain a firm pricing stance, while those lacking such orders are more inclined to lower prices to secure sales [3]. - Downstream enterprises are adopting a wait-and-see approach, particularly in the agricultural sector [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The decline in urea prices is primarily due to weak fundamentals, with domestic urea production remaining at historically high levels despite a slight decrease in daily output. Current inventory levels are around 1.09 million tons [4]. - Agricultural demand is currently in a seasonal lull, with low purchasing activity from grassroots levels and high inventory levels at compound fertilizer companies [4][5]. Future Outlook - Urea production is expected to rebound in mid to late September, potentially reaching daily outputs of over 190,000 tons, which may exacerbate the supply situation [5]. - The market is characterized by high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, leading to a "weak reality" for the urea market. However, potential export opportunities could provide short-term support for prices [5]. - Despite the bearish sentiment, the downward price movement may be limited as the market could be nearing a bottom [5].

Group 1 - The main contract for glass has fallen to 1100 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 4.10% [1] - The main contract for soda ash has experienced a daily drop of 2.00%, currently priced at 1242 yuan/ton [1]

Group 1 - The main contract for glass has fallen below 1200 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 6.41% [1] - The main contract for soda ash has experienced a significant drop of 4.00%, currently reported at 1312 yuan/ton [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Dalian Commodity Exchange's main contract for coking coal has dropped over 10%, currently priced at 1111 yuan per ton [1] Group 1 - The significant decline in coking coal prices indicates potential volatility in the commodity market [1] - The current price of 1111 yuan per ton reflects a notable shift in market dynamics for coking coal [1]