Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: The downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is high [2] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Silicomanganese: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Coke: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Coking coal: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Logs: Oscillation and repetition [2] Core Viewpoints - The report provides investment ratings and trend intensities for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs, along with their respective fundamental data and macro - industry news [2] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price was 791.5 yuan/ton, down 0.06%. The 12601 contract had a position of 480,907 hands, an increase of 9,616 hands. Spot prices of various types of iron ore remained unchanged. The basis and spreads had minor changes [4] - **Macro - Industry News**: In October, the year - on - year actual growth of the added value of large - scale industries was 4.9%, and the year - to - date growth from January to October was 6.1% [5] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [5] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar RB2601, the closing price was 3,070 yuan/ton, down 0.49%. For hot - rolled coil HC2601, the closing price was 3,277 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, and spot prices. The basis and spreads also changed [8] - **Macro - Industry News**: According to the November 13th weekly data from Steel Union, there were decreases in production, total inventory, and apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coil. In October 2025, there were changes in national steel production, imports, and exports [9][10] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral outlook [11] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: For ferrosilicon 2601, the closing price was 5,462 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. For silicomanganese 2601, the closing price was 5,642 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan. There were changes in trading volume, positions, and spot prices. The basis and spreads also changed [12] - **Macro - Industry News**: On November 19th, there were price ranges for different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions [12] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral outlook [12] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: For coking coal JM2601, the closing price was 1,139.5 yuan/ton, down 1.7%. For coke J2601, the closing price was 1,639 yuan/ton, down 0.6%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, and spot prices. The basis and spreads also changed [15] - **Macro - Industry News**: The National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the 2025 - 2026 heating season [16] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral outlook [16] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: There were data on the trading volume, positions, and closing prices of different contracts, as well as spot - futures spreads and price changes in the log spot market [18] - **Macro - Industry News**: Customs总署 decided to abolish the announcement on suspending the import of US logs from November 10, 2025 [20] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report's Core View - The report provides investment analysis and trend forecasts for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. Most commodities are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations, with logs showing repeated oscillations [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Market Trend**: Expected to have wide - range fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0 (neutral) [2][6]. - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price closed at 774.0 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan or 0.58%. The open interest decreased by 4,570 lots to 558,163 lots. Among spot prices, PB (61.5%) increased by 3.0 yuan to 781.0 yuan/ton. Some basis and spread values changed, such as the basis (12601. to Super Special) decreasing by 2.3 yuan to 144.7 yuan [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 20, the 5 - year LPR remained at 3.5%, and the 1 - year LPR at 3%. In September, first - tier city new commodity housing sales prices showed a decline, with varying trends in different cities [4][5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Trend**: The market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment, with wide - range fluctuations. Both have a trend strength of 0 (neutral) [2][9][10]. - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar (RB2601), the closing price was 3,068 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan or 0.59%, with a trading volume of 822,987 lots and an open interest of 1,977,511 lots (down 18,322 lots). For hot - rolled coils (HC2601), the closing price was 3,247 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan or 0.81%, with a trading volume of 423,300 lots and an open interest of 1,501,176 lots (down 8,822 lots) [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In September 2025, national crude steel production was 7349 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. Other steel - related production data also showed different trends. In the week of October 16, production, inventory, and apparent demand of some steel products changed [11][12]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Trend**: Supported by cost at the bottom, with wide - range fluctuations. Both have a trend strength of 0 (neutral) [2][13]. - **Fundamental Data**: For example, the closing price of ferrosilicon 2601 was 5538 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan. The spot price of ferrosilicon:FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia increased by 50 yuan to 5200 yuan/ton. Various price differences also changed [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 22, ferrosilicon and silicomanganese prices in different regions changed. An eastern Chinese steel mill set the silicomanganese purchase price at 5800 yuan/ton, with a purchase volume of 1700 tons. Jupiter announced the November 2025 manganese ore shipment price to China [13][14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Market Trend**: With repeated expectations, wide - range fluctuations. Both have a trend strength of 0 (neutral) [2][16][17]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of coking coal JM2601 was 1177 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan or 3.2%. The closing price of coke J2601 was 1672 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan or 2.2%. Some basis and spread values changed [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to iron ore, on October 20, the LPR remained unchanged, and new commodity housing sales prices in September showed declines in different - tier cities [18]. Logs - **Market Trend**: Repeated oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 (neutral) [2][20]. - **Fundamental Data**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 795, a daily decrease of 1.1% and a weekly decrease of 0.3%. The trading volume increased by 127.3% daily and decreased by 12% weekly. Spot prices of most log varieties remained stable [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to other commodities, on October 20, the LPR remained unchanged, and new commodity housing sales prices in September showed declines in different - tier cities [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The report provides investment outlooks for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. Most commodities are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations, with ferrosilicon and silicomanganese having cost - based bottom support, and logs expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Investment Outlook**: Wide - range fluctuations [2][6] - **Fundamental Data**: The futures closing price was 767.0 yuan/ton, down 4.0 yuan/ton (-0.52%); the open interest increased by 10,158 lots to 555,584 lots. Among spot prices, the price of Karara fines (65%) rose 1.0 yuan/ton to 902.0 yuan/ton, while the price of Super Special fines (56.5%) dropped 5.0 yuan/ton to 700.0 yuan/ton [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 20, the 5 - year LPR remained at 3.5%, and the 1 - year LPR remained at 3%. In September, the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities decreased by 0.3% month - on - month, with Beijing and Shanghai rising 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, and Guangzhou and Shenzhen falling 0.6% and 1.0% respectively. Second - tier and third - tier cities also saw price declines [6][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [8] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Investment Outlook**: Wide - range fluctuations [2][10][11] - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar RB2601, the closing price was 3,045 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (-0.03%); for hot - rolled coil HC2601, the closing price was 3,215 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.12%). In terms of spot prices, the price of rebar in Beijing rose 10 yuan/ton to 3,100 yuan/ton, and the price of hot - rolled coil in Guangzhou rose 20 yuan/ton to 3,240 yuan/ton [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In September 2025, China's crude steel output was 73.49 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%; the average daily output was 2.449 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.9%. From January to September, the crude steel output was 746.25 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%. In the first ten days of October, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel increased by 7.5% month - on - month [12][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [14] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Investment Outlook**: Cost - based bottom support, wide - range fluctuations [2][15] - **Fundamental Data**: For ferrosilicon 2601, the closing price was 5,436 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; for silicomanganese 2601, the closing price was 5,738 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The spot price of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia rose 20 yuan/ton to 5,700 yuan/ton [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 20, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in different regions was reported, with some regions having price changes. In September 2025, China's imports of ferrosilicon with a silicon content greater than 55% increased by 38.54% month - on - month and 12.42% year - on - year; exports increased by 16.08% month - on - month and 8.04% year - on - year [15][17]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [18] Coke and Coking Coal - **Investment Outlook**: Expectations are volatile, wide - range fluctuations [2][19][20] - **Fundamental Data**: For coking coal JM2601, the closing price was 1,216 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton (3.1%); for coke J2601, the closing price was 1,710 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (2.0%). The spot price of Jinquan Meng 5 coking coal increased by 48 yuan/ton to 1,307 yuan/ton [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to the iron ore section, on October 20, the LPR remained unchanged, and in September, the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in different - tier cities showed declines [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [22] Logs - **Investment Outlook**: Fluctuate repeatedly [2][23] - **Fundamental Data**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 802.5 yuan, down 0.2% day - on - day and up 1.9% week - on - week; the trading volume decreased by 43.2%. Spot prices of various types of logs in different regions remained mostly unchanged [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to other sections, on October 20, the LPR remained unchanged, and in September, the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in different - tier cities showed declines [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [26]