1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report's Core View - The report provides investment analysis and trend forecasts for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. Most commodities are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations, with logs showing repeated oscillations [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Market Trend**: Expected to have wide - range fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0 (neutral) [2][6]. - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price closed at 774.0 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan or 0.58%. The open interest decreased by 4,570 lots to 558,163 lots. Among spot prices, PB (61.5%) increased by 3.0 yuan to 781.0 yuan/ton. Some basis and spread values changed, such as the basis (12601. to Super Special) decreasing by 2.3 yuan to 144.7 yuan [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 20, the 5 - year LPR remained at 3.5%, and the 1 - year LPR at 3%. In September, first - tier city new commodity housing sales prices showed a decline, with varying trends in different cities [4][5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Trend**: The market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment, with wide - range fluctuations. Both have a trend strength of 0 (neutral) [2][9][10]. - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar (RB2601), the closing price was 3,068 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan or 0.59%, with a trading volume of 822,987 lots and an open interest of 1,977,511 lots (down 18,322 lots). For hot - rolled coils (HC2601), the closing price was 3,247 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan or 0.81%, with a trading volume of 423,300 lots and an open interest of 1,501,176 lots (down 8,822 lots) [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In September 2025, national crude steel production was 7349 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. Other steel - related production data also showed different trends. In the week of October 16, production, inventory, and apparent demand of some steel products changed [11][12]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Trend**: Supported by cost at the bottom, with wide - range fluctuations. Both have a trend strength of 0 (neutral) [2][13]. - **Fundamental Data**: For example, the closing price of ferrosilicon 2601 was 5538 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan. The spot price of ferrosilicon:FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia increased by 50 yuan to 5200 yuan/ton. Various price differences also changed [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 22, ferrosilicon and silicomanganese prices in different regions changed. An eastern Chinese steel mill set the silicomanganese purchase price at 5800 yuan/ton, with a purchase volume of 1700 tons. Jupiter announced the November 2025 manganese ore shipment price to China [13][14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Market Trend**: With repeated expectations, wide - range fluctuations. Both have a trend strength of 0 (neutral) [2][16][17]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of coking coal JM2601 was 1177 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan or 3.2%. The closing price of coke J2601 was 1672 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan or 2.2%. Some basis and spread values changed [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to iron ore, on October 20, the LPR remained unchanged, and new commodity housing sales prices in September showed declines in different - tier cities [18]. Logs - **Market Trend**: Repeated oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 (neutral) [2][20]. - **Fundamental Data**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 795, a daily decrease of 1.1% and a weekly decrease of 0.3%. The trading volume increased by 127.3% daily and decreased by 12% weekly. Spot prices of most log varieties remained stable [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to other commodities, on October 20, the LPR remained unchanged, and new commodity housing sales prices in September showed declines in different - tier cities [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report provides market trend forecasts and fundamental data for various black - series commodities, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. The overall view is that most commodities will experience wide - range fluctuations, with market sentiment being cautious, and some are supported by cost at the bottom, while the log market will fluctuate repeatedly [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend Forecast**: Wide - range fluctuations [2][7] - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing price was 769.5 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton or 0.33%. Spot prices of various types of iron ore remained unchanged. The basis and spread showed minor changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In October, the LPR remained unchanged; in September, the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities decreased by 0.3% month - on - month, with varying trends in different cities [4][5]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [6] Rebar - **Trend Forecast**: Wide - range fluctuations with strong market wait - and - see sentiment [9] - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's RB2601 futures closing price was 3,047 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton or 0.36%. Spot prices remained stable, and the basis and spread changed slightly [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In September 2025, China's crude steel output was 73.49 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%; weekly production, inventory, and apparent demand data for steel products also changed [11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [13] Hot - Rolled Coil - **Trend Forecast**: Wide - range fluctuations with strong market wait - and - see sentiment [10] - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's HC2601 futures closing price was 3,219 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton or 0.31%. Spot prices remained unchanged, and the basis and spread changed slightly [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to rebar, including changes in crude steel output, weekly production, inventory, and apparent demand data [11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [13] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend Forecast**: Wide - range fluctuations supported by cost at the bottom [15] - **Fundamental Data**: Futures and spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese changed, and there were also changes in basis, spread, and other indicators [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were price changes in different regions of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, a steel mill's ferrosilicon procurement price decreased, and the production and sales of manganese ore by South32 changed [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [17] Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend Forecast**: Wide - range fluctuations with repeated expectations [18][19] - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of coke and coking coal decreased, and spot prices were mostly stable. The basis and spread changed [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In October, the LPR remained unchanged; in September, the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities decreased by 0.3% month - on - month, with varying trends in different cities [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [21] Logs - **Trend Forecast**: Fluctuate repeatedly [22] - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, open interest, and spreads of different log contracts changed, and most spot prices remained stable [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In October, the LPR remained unchanged; in September, the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities decreased by 0.3% month - on - month, with varying trends in different cities [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [25]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The steel market is experiencing weak sentiment with prices trending downwards due to high post - holiday production, average demand, slow inventory reduction, and shrinking steel mill profits. The market is also influenced by geopolitical and economic uncertainties [1]. - The iron ore market is under cautious observation with prices weakening. Although demand is resilient, the expected increase in future supply and high current price valuations suggest potential downside risks, especially considering possible steel mill profit changes and steel production cuts [3]. - The coking coal and coke (double - coking) market shows no obvious supply - demand contradictions and is expected to move in a sideways pattern. Macroeconomic policies and supply - demand dynamics on both sides need to be monitored [5][6]. - The动力煤 market has seen rising prices in the production areas due to positive downstream demand. In the short term, prices will move sideways, while in the long - term, the supply remains ample [8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of rebar closed at 3061 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil at 3421 yuan/ton. The spot trading volume of steel was average, with the national building materials trading volume at 94,577 tons, a daily decrease of 10.8% and a weekly increase of 17.51%. Post - holiday steel production remained high, demand was average, inventory reduction was slow, and steel mill profits continued to shrink [1]. - **Strategy**: The recommended strategy for single - side trading is to expect a sideways - to - downward movement [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of iron ore weakened. The main 2601 contract closed at 782 yuan/ton, down 2.8%. The price of imported iron ore in Tangshan ports declined. The total transaction volume of main ports was 185.9 million tons, a 95.27% increase from the previous day, and the forward - spot transaction volume was 91 million tons, a 44.44% increase. Iron ore arrivals increased significantly this week, iron - water production remained high, and port inventories increased slightly [3]. - **Strategy**: The recommended single - side trading strategy is a sideways - to - downward movement [4]. Double - Coking (Coking Coal and Coke) - **Market Analysis**: The futures of double - coking oscillated. The coke market was stable, with most steel mills purchasing for immediate needs. The production of coking coal was gradually recovering, but was affected by some factors. The customs system failure at the Ganqimaodu port led to a significant decline in customs clearance [5]. - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to move sideways [7]. 动力煤 - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, coal prices continued to rise due to positive downstream demand from the metallurgical and chemical industries. At ports, the market sentiment was good, but the transaction was deadlocked. The imported coal market was strong, and the price advantage was obvious [8]. - **Strategy**: No trading strategy was provided [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Coke**: As of the week ending September 26, the combined daily average coke output of independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1127,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 590 tons. The profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 34 yuan/ton, with the loss widening by 17 yuan/ton, suppressing coking enterprises' production enthusiasm. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills nationwide was 2,423,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1340 tons. Coke inventory shifted downstream this week, with inventory at upstream independent coking plants and intermediate ports decreasing, while the coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased significantly by 166,400 tons to 6,613,100 tons, and the total industrial chain coke inventory increased by 52,300 tons to 9,204,100 tons. Overall, the fundamental driving force for coke is limited, policy uncertainty has decreased, market wait - and - see sentiment has increased, and pre - holiday capital outflows have led to the weak operation of coke futures [5][34]. - **Coking Coal**: As of the week ending September 26, the daily average clean coal output of 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 772,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,000 tons, but 25,000 tons lower than the same period last year. At the import end, the number of Mongolian coal trucks passing through the 288 port continued to rise, approaching 8000 trucks per week. On the demand side, the combined daily average coke output of sample coking plants and steel mills was 1127,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 590 tons. In terms of inventory, the coking coal inventory of independent coking plants rebounded significantly by 586,600 tons to 9,990,700 tons, and the coking coal inventory of steel mills increased by 57,300 tons to 7,960,700 tons, indicating that the downstream's pre - holiday restocking demand was fulfilled. Overall, the upward driving force for coking coal futures is limited. With the approaching National Day holiday, market wait - and - see sentiment has increased, and pre - holiday capital outflows have led to the weak operation of coking coal futures [6][35]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs **I. Industry News** - Three coal mines in Xiangning, Linfen are planned to stop production from October 1, for 3 - 7 days with a total production capacity of 11.7 million tons, mainly producing low - sulfur lean coal. The total impact on raw coal production during this period is about 206,000 tons [8]. - On September 29, the price of coking coal in the Anze market of Linfen remained stable, with the ex - factory price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) being 1590 yuan/ton, cash inclusive of tax [9]. **II. Spot Market** | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port Standard First - Grade FOB) | 1470 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 6.37% | - 13.02% | - 15.52% | | Coke (Qingdao Port Standard First - Grade Ex - Warehouse) | 1490 yuan/ton | - 0.67% | 0.68% | - 8.02% | - 14.37% | | Coking Coal (Ganjimiao Port Mongolian Coal) | 1280 yuan/ton | 5.79% | 8.47% | 8.47% | - 7.25% | | Coking Coal (Australian - Produced in Jingtang Port) | 1620 yuan/ton | 0.62% | 2.53% | 8.72% | - 2.41% | | Coking Coal (Shanxi - Produced in Jingtang Port) | 1710 yuan/ton | 6.21% | 4.91% | 11.76% | - 2.84% | [10] **III. Futures Market** | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change Rate | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | - | 1647.0 | - 4.16 | 1701.0 | 1642.5 | 27,979 | - 1584 | 43,467 | - 1561 | | Coking Coal | - | 1154.0 | - 4.98 | 1194.5 | 1152.5 | 855,255 | 22,510 | 623,075 | - 65,471 | [13] **IV. Relevant Charts** There are various charts showing the inventory of coke and coking coal (such as independent coking plants, steel - mill coking plants, ports, etc.), as well as other related production and consumption data, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [14][20][26] **V. Market Outlook** The analysis of coke and coking coal is the same as the core viewpoints, emphasizing the supply, demand, inventory situation and market trends of coke and coking coal [34][35]

Group 1 - The upcoming long holiday is leading to increased investor caution, with trading activity expected to decline as investors await external market developments [1] - Post-holiday market focus will shift back to domestic economic trends, particularly on demand-side policies to stabilize economic growth and supply-side efforts to address "involution" issues, which are crucial for PPI recovery and corporate profit growth [1] - Last week, the market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index testing the 30-day moving average, closing above it, while the Shenzhen Component Index showed strong performance, reaching a new high before slightly retreating [1] Group 2 - The market is currently in a consolidation phase after a period of upward movement, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing strong support above previous resistance levels from 2021 [2] - Despite the consolidation, some sector indices continue to trend upward, indicating that structural rotation remains a key characteristic of the current market [2]

Group 1 - The euro is currently trading at 1.1694 against the dollar, showing a slight decline of 0.11% from the previous trading day, indicating a market in a consolidation phase with limited volatility and no clear directional signals [1] - Market sentiment is complex and somewhat contradictory, with many institutions predicting a relatively flat performance for the euro in the near term due to an "overbought" situation, as approximately $18 billion in net long positions are currently betting on a stronger euro [1][3] - The positioning structure in the market may limit the euro's upward momentum, especially if the dollar weakens due to expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts or policy statements, which could lead to profit-taking pressures on the euro [1][3] Group 2 - Traders' attitudes towards the dollar are becoming polarized, with reductions in short positions against the yen while increasing short positions against the pound, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, and New Zealand dollar, indicating a selective approach rather than a broad bearish outlook on the dollar [3] - The euro-dollar pair is currently in a critical area of contention, facing multiple resistance levels that act as a "ceiling" on the exchange rate's rebound, with key resistance points at 1.1742, 1.1788, and the year-to-date high of 1.1830 [3][4] - The euro is in a wide-ranging consolidation zone, and without a significant breakthrough above any of the mentioned resistance levels, it is difficult to determine if a trend has formed, with short-term risks of a downward movement still present due to a lack of new positive stimuli [3][4]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The asphalt market is currently experiencing a weak supply and demand situation, with prices expected to maintain a slight fluctuation in the short term due to low terminal demand and unstable cost support from international crude oil prices [2][3]. Group 1: Market Data - As of July 11, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported that the asphalt factory warehouse futures inventory remained stable at 39,350 tons, while the warehouse futures inventory was also unchanged at 42,950 tons [1]. - The capacity utilization rate of 92 asphalt refineries in China was 33.9% for the week ending July 9, reflecting a 0.8% increase week-on-week, with a weekly asphalt production of 566,000 tons, up 2.4% from the previous week [1]. - The capacity utilization rate for 77 domestic heavy-duty asphalt enterprises was 32.7%, marking a 1.0% increase week-on-week [1]. - The planned production volume for asphalt refineries nationwide in July is expected to remain consistent with May and June levels, with the East China region experiencing an earlier end to the rainy season compared to previous years, providing a favorable market condition [1]. Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Donghai Futures indicates that oil prices are operating within a range, and asphalt prices are expected to remain volatile. Recent shipping volumes have significantly decreased, and there are signs of inventory accumulation. The demand during the peak season has not exceeded market expectations, and attention should be paid to inventory depletion in the short term [2]. - Guoxin Futures notes that the current asphalt market is characterized by weak supply and demand. Although the operating load of enterprises is low, changes are limited. The terminal demand remains sluggish, leading to a cautious market sentiment among downstream users and traders. The cost support from international crude oil prices is also unstable, suggesting that asphalt prices will likely continue to fluctuate slightly in the short term [3].