Group 1: Report Title and Main Topics - The report focuses on the silicon ferroalloy (silicon iron and ferromanganese) market, with titles "Silicon Iron: A Large Number of Warehouse Receipts Registered, Pay Attention to Position Risk" and "Ferromanganese: Cost Bottom Support, Wide - Range Fluctuation" [2][3] Group 2: Analyst Information - The analyst is Li Yafei (Investment Consultation Qualification Number: Z0021184), and the contact person is Jin Yuanyuan (Futures Qualification Number: F03134630) [3] Group 3: Fundamental Data Futures Market - Silicon iron 2603 contract closed at 5448 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 316,787 and an open interest of 217,611; silicon iron 2605 contract closed at 5408 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan, with a trading volume of 11,427 and an open interest of 33,842 - Ferromanganese 2601 contract closed at 5636 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan, with a trading volume of 120,736 and an open interest of 384,812; ferromanganese 2605 contract closed at 5698 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan, with a trading volume of 22,886 and an open interest of 117,466 [3] Spot Market - The summary price of silicon iron FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5150 yuan/ton; the price of ferromanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5520 yuan/ton; the price of manganese ore Mn44 lump was 41.0 yuan/ton - degree, up 0.3 yuan; the price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu was 820 yuan/ton [3] Price Spreads - The spot - futures price spread of silicon iron (spot - 03 futures) was - 298 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the spot - futures price spread of ferromanganese (spot - 01 futures) was - 116 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan - The near - far month price spread of silicon iron 2603 - 2605 was 40 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the near - far month price spread of ferromanganese 2601 - 2605 was - 62 yuan/ton, unchanged - The cross - variety price spread of ferromanganese 2603 - silicon iron 2603 was 204 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the cross - variety price spread of ferromanganese 2605 - silicon iron 2605 was 290 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [3] Group 4: Macro and Industry News - On November 25th, the price range of 72 silicon iron in Shaanxi was 5050 - 5150 yuan/ton, in Ningxia was 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan), in Qinghai was 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton, in Gansu was 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), and in Inner Mongolia was 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton; the price range of 75 silicon iron in Shaanxi was 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton, in Ningxia was 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton, in Qinghai was 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton, in Gansu was 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia was 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 silicon iron was 1020 - 1040 US dollars/ton (down 10 US dollars), and the FOB price of 75 silicon iron was 1090 - 1120 US dollars/ton (down 10 - 20 US dollars) - The northern quotation of 6517 ferromanganese was 5500 - 5600 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation was 5600 yuan/ton [3] Group 5: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon iron is 0, and the trend intensity of ferromanganese is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report's Core View - The report provides investment analysis and trend forecasts for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. Most commodities are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations, with logs showing repeated oscillations [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Market Trend**: Expected to have wide - range fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0 (neutral) [2][6]. - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price closed at 774.0 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan or 0.58%. The open interest decreased by 4,570 lots to 558,163 lots. Among spot prices, PB (61.5%) increased by 3.0 yuan to 781.0 yuan/ton. Some basis and spread values changed, such as the basis (12601. to Super Special) decreasing by 2.3 yuan to 144.7 yuan [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 20, the 5 - year LPR remained at 3.5%, and the 1 - year LPR at 3%. In September, first - tier city new commodity housing sales prices showed a decline, with varying trends in different cities [4][5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Trend**: The market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment, with wide - range fluctuations. Both have a trend strength of 0 (neutral) [2][9][10]. - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar (RB2601), the closing price was 3,068 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan or 0.59%, with a trading volume of 822,987 lots and an open interest of 1,977,511 lots (down 18,322 lots). For hot - rolled coils (HC2601), the closing price was 3,247 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan or 0.81%, with a trading volume of 423,300 lots and an open interest of 1,501,176 lots (down 8,822 lots) [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In September 2025, national crude steel production was 7349 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. Other steel - related production data also showed different trends. In the week of October 16, production, inventory, and apparent demand of some steel products changed [11][12]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Trend**: Supported by cost at the bottom, with wide - range fluctuations. Both have a trend strength of 0 (neutral) [2][13]. - **Fundamental Data**: For example, the closing price of ferrosilicon 2601 was 5538 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan. The spot price of ferrosilicon:FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia increased by 50 yuan to 5200 yuan/ton. Various price differences also changed [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 22, ferrosilicon and silicomanganese prices in different regions changed. An eastern Chinese steel mill set the silicomanganese purchase price at 5800 yuan/ton, with a purchase volume of 1700 tons. Jupiter announced the November 2025 manganese ore shipment price to China [13][14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Market Trend**: With repeated expectations, wide - range fluctuations. Both have a trend strength of 0 (neutral) [2][16][17]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of coking coal JM2601 was 1177 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan or 3.2%. The closing price of coke J2601 was 1672 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan or 2.2%. Some basis and spread values changed [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to iron ore, on October 20, the LPR remained unchanged, and new commodity housing sales prices in September showed declines in different - tier cities [18]. Logs - **Market Trend**: Repeated oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 (neutral) [2][20]. - **Fundamental Data**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 795, a daily decrease of 1.1% and a weekly decrease of 0.3%. The trading volume increased by 127.3% daily and decreased by 12% weekly. Spot prices of most log varieties remained stable [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to other commodities, on October 20, the LPR remained unchanged, and new commodity housing sales prices in September showed declines in different - tier cities [24].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to have cost - based bottom support and experience wide - range fluctuations [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: - Ferrosilicon 2511 closed at 5458 with no change from the previous day, Ferrosilicon 2601 closed at 5436, up 6; Silicomanganese 2511 closed at 5732, up 16, and Silicomanganese 2601 closed at 5738, up 20 [2] - Trading volumes were 18,022 and 134,692 for Ferrosilicon 2511 and 2601 respectively, and 2,266 and 152,986 for Silicomanganese 2511 and 2601 respectively [2] - Open interests were 28,931 and 208,602 for Ferrosilicon 2511 and 2601 respectively, and 10,556 and 377,834 for Silicomanganese 2511 and 2601 respectively [2] - **Spot Prices**: - The price of Ferrosilicon:FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5180 yuan/ton; the price of Silicomanganese:FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5700 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [2] - The price of manganese ore (Mn44 block) was 39.8 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of semi - coke (small material) in Shenmu was 710 yuan/ton [2] - **Price Spreads**: - The spot - futures spread of ferrosilicon (spot - 11 futures) was - 278 yuan/ton; the spot - futures spread of silicomanganese (spot - 01 futures) was - 38 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton [2] - The near - far month spread of Ferrosilicon 2511 - 2601 was 22 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton; the near - far month spread of Silicomanganese 2511 - 2601 was - 6 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton [2] - The cross - variety spread of Silicomanganese 2511 - Ferrosilicon 2511 was 274 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton; the cross - variety spread of Silicomanganese 2601 - Ferrosilicon 2601 was 302 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: - On October 20, 2025, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in different regions was 5100 - 5250 yuan/ton; the price range of 75 ferrosilicon was 5800 - 5900 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 ferrosilicon was 1030 - 1050 dollars/ton, down 10 dollars/ton; the FOB price of 75 ferrosilicon was 1110 - 1140 dollars/ton, down 10 dollars/ton [2] - The northern quotation of 6517 silicomanganese was 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation was 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton [2] - **Steel Mill Tendering**: - A steel mill in Jiangsu set the price of silicomanganese at 5748 yuan/ton (acceptance, tax - included, delivered to the factory) on October 17, down 110 yuan/ton from the tender on October 13 [2] - A large steel group in Hebei tendered 16,500 tons of silicomanganese in October, 500 tons less than in September. The first - round inquiry price was 5750 yuan/ton, the second - round inquiry price was 5800 yuan/ton, and the final price was 5820 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton from last month [2] - **Import and Export Data**: - In September 2025, China's imports of ferrosilicon with a silicon content greater than 55% were 10,255.766 tons, a month - on - month increase of 38.54% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42%. The main importing countries were Russia, North Korea, and Norway [4] - In September 2025, China's exports of ferrosilicon with a silicon content greater than 55% were 38,723.641 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.08% and a year - on - year increase of 8.04%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative exports were 292,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.25% [4] - In September 2025, China's manganese ore imports were 308.49 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.50% and a year - on - year increase of 12.98%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative imports were 23.7516 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.64% [5] - In September 2025, China's exports of silicomanganese were 4426.344 tons, and from January to September, the cumulative exports were 25,464.149 tons. In September, imports were 1716.608 tons, and from January to September, the cumulative imports were 11,592.007 tons [5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of ferrosilicon is 0, and the trend intensity of silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The report provides investment outlooks for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. Most commodities are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations, with ferrosilicon and silicomanganese having cost - based bottom support, and logs expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Investment Outlook**: Wide - range fluctuations [2][6] - **Fundamental Data**: The futures closing price was 767.0 yuan/ton, down 4.0 yuan/ton (-0.52%); the open interest increased by 10,158 lots to 555,584 lots. Among spot prices, the price of Karara fines (65%) rose 1.0 yuan/ton to 902.0 yuan/ton, while the price of Super Special fines (56.5%) dropped 5.0 yuan/ton to 700.0 yuan/ton [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 20, the 5 - year LPR remained at 3.5%, and the 1 - year LPR remained at 3%. In September, the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities decreased by 0.3% month - on - month, with Beijing and Shanghai rising 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, and Guangzhou and Shenzhen falling 0.6% and 1.0% respectively. Second - tier and third - tier cities also saw price declines [6][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [8] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Investment Outlook**: Wide - range fluctuations [2][10][11] - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar RB2601, the closing price was 3,045 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (-0.03%); for hot - rolled coil HC2601, the closing price was 3,215 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.12%). In terms of spot prices, the price of rebar in Beijing rose 10 yuan/ton to 3,100 yuan/ton, and the price of hot - rolled coil in Guangzhou rose 20 yuan/ton to 3,240 yuan/ton [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In September 2025, China's crude steel output was 73.49 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%; the average daily output was 2.449 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.9%. From January to September, the crude steel output was 746.25 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%. In the first ten days of October, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel increased by 7.5% month - on - month [12][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [14] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Investment Outlook**: Cost - based bottom support, wide - range fluctuations [2][15] - **Fundamental Data**: For ferrosilicon 2601, the closing price was 5,436 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; for silicomanganese 2601, the closing price was 5,738 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The spot price of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia rose 20 yuan/ton to 5,700 yuan/ton [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 20, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in different regions was reported, with some regions having price changes. In September 2025, China's imports of ferrosilicon with a silicon content greater than 55% increased by 38.54% month - on - month and 12.42% year - on - year; exports increased by 16.08% month - on - month and 8.04% year - on - year [15][17]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [18] Coke and Coking Coal - **Investment Outlook**: Expectations are volatile, wide - range fluctuations [2][19][20] - **Fundamental Data**: For coking coal JM2601, the closing price was 1,216 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton (3.1%); for coke J2601, the closing price was 1,710 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (2.0%). The spot price of Jinquan Meng 5 coking coal increased by 48 yuan/ton to 1,307 yuan/ton [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to the iron ore section, on October 20, the LPR remained unchanged, and in September, the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in different - tier cities showed declines [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [22] Logs - **Investment Outlook**: Fluctuate repeatedly [2][23] - **Fundamental Data**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 802.5 yuan, down 0.2% day - on - day and up 1.9% week - on - week; the trading volume decreased by 43.2%. Spot prices of various types of logs in different regions remained mostly unchanged [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to other sections, on October 20, the LPR remained unchanged, and in September, the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in different - tier cities showed declines [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the futures trends of various black - series commodities, indicating that iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, silicon iron, manganese silicon, coke, and coking coal will experience wide - range fluctuations; logs will fluctuate repeatedly. The cost provides bottom support for silicon iron and manganese silicon, while the expectations for coke and coking coal are volatile [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Trend**: Wide - range fluctuations [2][4] - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price was 771.0 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton (-0.32%); the position increased by 9,848 hands. Among spot prices, the price of Carajás fines (65%) dropped by 4.0 yuan/ton, PB fines (61.5%) rose by 1.0 yuan/ton, etc. The basis and spreads also showed corresponding changes [5]. - **News**: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remaining flat month - on - month [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [5] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Trend**: Wide - range fluctuations [2][7][8] - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2601, the previous day's closing price was 3,037 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.03%); the trading volume was 854,671 hands, and the position decreased by 35,070 hands. For hot - rolled coil HC2601, the closing price was 3,204 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.16%); the trading volume was 487,804 hands, and the position increased by 16,084 hands. Spot prices in different regions showed different changes, and the basis and spreads also changed accordingly [8]. - **News**: According to the weekly data from Steel Union on October 16, in terms of production, rebar decreased by 2.24 million tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 1.45 million tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 6.36 million tons; in terms of total inventory, rebar decreased by 18.59 million tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 6.29 million tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 18.46 million tons; in terms of apparent demand, rebar increased by 73.74 million tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 24.58 million tons, and the total increased by 139.96 million tons. In early October 2025, key steel enterprises produced 20.32 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.032 million tons, a 7.5% increase in daily output month - on - month; 18.75 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.875 million tons, a 3.2% increase in daily output month - on - month; 19.61 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.961 million tons, an 8.5% decrease in daily output month - on - month. In August 2025, China exported 9.51 million tons of steel, a 3.3% decrease month - on - month, and imported 500,000 tons of steel, a 10.4% increase month - on - month [9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [10] Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Trend**: Cost provides bottom support, wide - range fluctuations [2][12] - **Fundamentals**: For silicon iron 2511, the closing price was 5,458 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; for silicon iron 2601, it was 5,430 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton. For manganese silicon 2511, the closing price was 5,716 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton; for manganese silicon 2601, it was 5,718 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton. Spot prices and various spreads also showed corresponding changes [12]. - **News**: On October 17, the prices of different grades of silicon iron and silicon manganese in various regions were reported. In September, the settlement electricity prices in the main production areas of silicon manganese showed different changes. An Inner Mongolia silicon iron plant carried out maintenance on two furnaces, with one recently restarted and the other expected to restart around the 25th. Steel mills such as Jinshenglan and Hegang had price adjustments and procurement volume changes for silicon iron and silicon manganese. As of this Friday, the manganese ore inventory in ports decreased [12][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [15] Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend**: Expectations are volatile, wide - range fluctuations [2][17][18] - **Fundamentals**: For coking coal JM2601, the previous day's closing price was 1,179 yuan/ton, down 6.5 yuan/ton (-0.5%); for coke J2601, it was 1,676 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan/ton (0.2%). Spot prices and various spreads also changed [18]. - **News**: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remaining flat month - on - month [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [19] Logs - **Trend**: Fluctuate repeatedly [2][20] - **News**: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remaining flat month - on - month [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily analysis and forecasts for various black - series commodities in the futures market, suggesting that iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, silicon iron, manganese silicon, coke, and coking coal will experience wide - range fluctuations, while logs will have oscillatory and repeated trends [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend**: Wide - range fluctuations [2][7] - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's closing price was 773.5 yuan/ton, down 3.0 yuan/ton (- 0.39%); for futures, the position of l2601 was 535,578 hands, an increase of 27,213 hands. Imported and domestic ore prices mostly declined, with a 5 - yuan/ton drop in most imported ore varieties. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [5]. - **News**: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remaining flat month - on - month. The trend strength is 0 [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Trend**: Wide - range fluctuations [2][8][9] - **Fundamentals**: For RB2601 of rebar, the previous day's closing price was 3,049 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (0.16%); for HC2601 of hot - rolled coil, it was 3,219 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (- 0.19%). In terms of production and inventory, production of rebar decreased by 2.24 tons, hot - rolled coil by 1.45 tons; rebar inventory decreased by 18.59 tons, hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 6.29 tons; apparent demand for rebar increased by 73.74 tons, hot - rolled coil by 24.58 tons [9][10]. - **News**: In early October 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily production of crude steel increased by 7.5%, pig iron by 3.2%, and steel decreased by 8.5%. The trend strength for both is 0 [10][11]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Trend**: Cost - supported at the bottom, wide - range fluctuations [2][13] - **Fundamentals**: For example, the closing price of silicon iron 2511 was 5478, up 102; the closing price of manganese silicon 2601 was 5754, up 8. Spot prices and various spreads also showed corresponding changes [13]. - **News**: On October 16, prices of different grades of silicon iron and manganese silicon in various regions changed. In September, the settlement electricity prices in the main production areas of manganese silicon showed some adjustments. The trend strength for both is 0 [13][15][16]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend**: Expectations are repeated, wide - range fluctuations [2][18][19] - **Fundamentals**: For JM2601 of coking coal, the previous day's closing price was 1185.5 yuan/ton, up 34.5 yuan/ton (3.0%); for J2601 of coke, it was 1672.5 yuan/ton, up 30.5 yuan/ton (1.9%). Spot prices and basis spreads also changed [19]. - **News**: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remaining flat month - on - month. The trend strength for both is 0 [20]. Logs - **Trend**: Oscillatory and repeated [2][21] - **Fundamentals**: Closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log contracts showed different degrees of change. Spot prices of various log varieties in different regions were mostly stable [22]. - **News**: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remaining flat month - on - month. The trend strength is - 1 [24].