1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report's Core View - The report provides investment analysis and trend forecasts for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. Most commodities are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations, with logs showing repeated oscillations [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Market Trend**: Expected to have wide - range fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0 (neutral) [2][6]. - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price closed at 774.0 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan or 0.58%. The open interest decreased by 4,570 lots to 558,163 lots. Among spot prices, PB (61.5%) increased by 3.0 yuan to 781.0 yuan/ton. Some basis and spread values changed, such as the basis (12601. to Super Special) decreasing by 2.3 yuan to 144.7 yuan [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 20, the 5 - year LPR remained at 3.5%, and the 1 - year LPR at 3%. In September, first - tier city new commodity housing sales prices showed a decline, with varying trends in different cities [4][5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Trend**: The market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment, with wide - range fluctuations. Both have a trend strength of 0 (neutral) [2][9][10]. - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar (RB2601), the closing price was 3,068 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan or 0.59%, with a trading volume of 822,987 lots and an open interest of 1,977,511 lots (down 18,322 lots). For hot - rolled coils (HC2601), the closing price was 3,247 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan or 0.81%, with a trading volume of 423,300 lots and an open interest of 1,501,176 lots (down 8,822 lots) [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In September 2025, national crude steel production was 7349 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. Other steel - related production data also showed different trends. In the week of October 16, production, inventory, and apparent demand of some steel products changed [11][12]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Trend**: Supported by cost at the bottom, with wide - range fluctuations. Both have a trend strength of 0 (neutral) [2][13]. - **Fundamental Data**: For example, the closing price of ferrosilicon 2601 was 5538 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan. The spot price of ferrosilicon:FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia increased by 50 yuan to 5200 yuan/ton. Various price differences also changed [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 22, ferrosilicon and silicomanganese prices in different regions changed. An eastern Chinese steel mill set the silicomanganese purchase price at 5800 yuan/ton, with a purchase volume of 1700 tons. Jupiter announced the November 2025 manganese ore shipment price to China [13][14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Market Trend**: With repeated expectations, wide - range fluctuations. Both have a trend strength of 0 (neutral) [2][16][17]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of coking coal JM2601 was 1177 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan or 3.2%. The closing price of coke J2601 was 1672 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan or 2.2%. Some basis and spread values changed [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to iron ore, on October 20, the LPR remained unchanged, and new commodity housing sales prices in September showed declines in different - tier cities [18]. Logs - **Market Trend**: Repeated oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 (neutral) [2][20]. - **Fundamental Data**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 795, a daily decrease of 1.1% and a weekly decrease of 0.3%. The trading volume increased by 127.3% daily and decreased by 12% weekly. Spot prices of most log varieties remained stable [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to other commodities, on October 20, the LPR remained unchanged, and new commodity housing sales prices in September showed declines in different - tier cities [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The report provides investment outlooks for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. Most commodities are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations, with ferrosilicon and silicomanganese having cost - based bottom support, and logs expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Investment Outlook**: Wide - range fluctuations [2][6] - **Fundamental Data**: The futures closing price was 767.0 yuan/ton, down 4.0 yuan/ton (-0.52%); the open interest increased by 10,158 lots to 555,584 lots. Among spot prices, the price of Karara fines (65%) rose 1.0 yuan/ton to 902.0 yuan/ton, while the price of Super Special fines (56.5%) dropped 5.0 yuan/ton to 700.0 yuan/ton [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 20, the 5 - year LPR remained at 3.5%, and the 1 - year LPR remained at 3%. In September, the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities decreased by 0.3% month - on - month, with Beijing and Shanghai rising 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, and Guangzhou and Shenzhen falling 0.6% and 1.0% respectively. Second - tier and third - tier cities also saw price declines [6][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [8] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Investment Outlook**: Wide - range fluctuations [2][10][11] - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar RB2601, the closing price was 3,045 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (-0.03%); for hot - rolled coil HC2601, the closing price was 3,215 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.12%). In terms of spot prices, the price of rebar in Beijing rose 10 yuan/ton to 3,100 yuan/ton, and the price of hot - rolled coil in Guangzhou rose 20 yuan/ton to 3,240 yuan/ton [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In September 2025, China's crude steel output was 73.49 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%; the average daily output was 2.449 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.9%. From January to September, the crude steel output was 746.25 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%. In the first ten days of October, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel increased by 7.5% month - on - month [12][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [14] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Investment Outlook**: Cost - based bottom support, wide - range fluctuations [2][15] - **Fundamental Data**: For ferrosilicon 2601, the closing price was 5,436 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; for silicomanganese 2601, the closing price was 5,738 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The spot price of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia rose 20 yuan/ton to 5,700 yuan/ton [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 20, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in different regions was reported, with some regions having price changes. In September 2025, China's imports of ferrosilicon with a silicon content greater than 55% increased by 38.54% month - on - month and 12.42% year - on - year; exports increased by 16.08% month - on - month and 8.04% year - on - year [15][17]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [18] Coke and Coking Coal - **Investment Outlook**: Expectations are volatile, wide - range fluctuations [2][19][20] - **Fundamental Data**: For coking coal JM2601, the closing price was 1,216 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton (3.1%); for coke J2601, the closing price was 1,710 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (2.0%). The spot price of Jinquan Meng 5 coking coal increased by 48 yuan/ton to 1,307 yuan/ton [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to the iron ore section, on October 20, the LPR remained unchanged, and in September, the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in different - tier cities showed declines [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [22] Logs - **Investment Outlook**: Fluctuate repeatedly [2][23] - **Fundamental Data**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 802.5 yuan, down 0.2% day - on - day and up 1.9% week - on - week; the trading volume decreased by 43.2%. Spot prices of various types of logs in different regions remained mostly unchanged [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to other sections, on October 20, the LPR remained unchanged, and in September, the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in different - tier cities showed declines [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the futures trends of various black - series commodities, indicating that iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, silicon iron, manganese silicon, coke, and coking coal will experience wide - range fluctuations; logs will fluctuate repeatedly. The cost provides bottom support for silicon iron and manganese silicon, while the expectations for coke and coking coal are volatile [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Trend**: Wide - range fluctuations [2][4] - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price was 771.0 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton (-0.32%); the position increased by 9,848 hands. Among spot prices, the price of Carajás fines (65%) dropped by 4.0 yuan/ton, PB fines (61.5%) rose by 1.0 yuan/ton, etc. The basis and spreads also showed corresponding changes [5]. - **News**: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remaining flat month - on - month [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [5] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Trend**: Wide - range fluctuations [2][7][8] - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2601, the previous day's closing price was 3,037 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.03%); the trading volume was 854,671 hands, and the position decreased by 35,070 hands. For hot - rolled coil HC2601, the closing price was 3,204 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.16%); the trading volume was 487,804 hands, and the position increased by 16,084 hands. Spot prices in different regions showed different changes, and the basis and spreads also changed accordingly [8]. - **News**: According to the weekly data from Steel Union on October 16, in terms of production, rebar decreased by 2.24 million tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 1.45 million tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 6.36 million tons; in terms of total inventory, rebar decreased by 18.59 million tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 6.29 million tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 18.46 million tons; in terms of apparent demand, rebar increased by 73.74 million tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 24.58 million tons, and the total increased by 139.96 million tons. In early October 2025, key steel enterprises produced 20.32 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.032 million tons, a 7.5% increase in daily output month - on - month; 18.75 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.875 million tons, a 3.2% increase in daily output month - on - month; 19.61 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.961 million tons, an 8.5% decrease in daily output month - on - month. In August 2025, China exported 9.51 million tons of steel, a 3.3% decrease month - on - month, and imported 500,000 tons of steel, a 10.4% increase month - on - month [9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [10] Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Trend**: Cost provides bottom support, wide - range fluctuations [2][12] - **Fundamentals**: For silicon iron 2511, the closing price was 5,458 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; for silicon iron 2601, it was 5,430 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton. For manganese silicon 2511, the closing price was 5,716 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton; for manganese silicon 2601, it was 5,718 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton. Spot prices and various spreads also showed corresponding changes [12]. - **News**: On October 17, the prices of different grades of silicon iron and silicon manganese in various regions were reported. In September, the settlement electricity prices in the main production areas of silicon manganese showed different changes. An Inner Mongolia silicon iron plant carried out maintenance on two furnaces, with one recently restarted and the other expected to restart around the 25th. Steel mills such as Jinshenglan and Hegang had price adjustments and procurement volume changes for silicon iron and silicon manganese. As of this Friday, the manganese ore inventory in ports decreased [12][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [15] Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend**: Expectations are volatile, wide - range fluctuations [2][17][18] - **Fundamentals**: For coking coal JM2601, the previous day's closing price was 1,179 yuan/ton, down 6.5 yuan/ton (-0.5%); for coke J2601, it was 1,676 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan/ton (0.2%). Spot prices and various spreads also changed [18]. - **News**: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remaining flat month - on - month [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [19] Logs - **Trend**: Fluctuate repeatedly [2][20] - **News**: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remaining flat month - on - month [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily analysis and forecasts for various black - series commodities in the futures market, suggesting that iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, silicon iron, manganese silicon, coke, and coking coal will experience wide - range fluctuations, while logs will have oscillatory and repeated trends [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend**: Wide - range fluctuations [2][7] - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's closing price was 773.5 yuan/ton, down 3.0 yuan/ton (- 0.39%); for futures, the position of l2601 was 535,578 hands, an increase of 27,213 hands. Imported and domestic ore prices mostly declined, with a 5 - yuan/ton drop in most imported ore varieties. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [5]. - **News**: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remaining flat month - on - month. The trend strength is 0 [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Trend**: Wide - range fluctuations [2][8][9] - **Fundamentals**: For RB2601 of rebar, the previous day's closing price was 3,049 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (0.16%); for HC2601 of hot - rolled coil, it was 3,219 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (- 0.19%). In terms of production and inventory, production of rebar decreased by 2.24 tons, hot - rolled coil by 1.45 tons; rebar inventory decreased by 18.59 tons, hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 6.29 tons; apparent demand for rebar increased by 73.74 tons, hot - rolled coil by 24.58 tons [9][10]. - **News**: In early October 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily production of crude steel increased by 7.5%, pig iron by 3.2%, and steel decreased by 8.5%. The trend strength for both is 0 [10][11]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Trend**: Cost - supported at the bottom, wide - range fluctuations [2][13] - **Fundamentals**: For example, the closing price of silicon iron 2511 was 5478, up 102; the closing price of manganese silicon 2601 was 5754, up 8. Spot prices and various spreads also showed corresponding changes [13]. - **News**: On October 16, prices of different grades of silicon iron and manganese silicon in various regions changed. In September, the settlement electricity prices in the main production areas of manganese silicon showed some adjustments. The trend strength for both is 0 [13][15][16]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend**: Expectations are repeated, wide - range fluctuations [2][18][19] - **Fundamentals**: For JM2601 of coking coal, the previous day's closing price was 1185.5 yuan/ton, up 34.5 yuan/ton (3.0%); for J2601 of coke, it was 1672.5 yuan/ton, up 30.5 yuan/ton (1.9%). Spot prices and basis spreads also changed [19]. - **News**: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remaining flat month - on - month. The trend strength for both is 0 [20]. Logs - **Trend**: Oscillatory and repeated [2][21] - **Fundamentals**: Closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log contracts showed different degrees of change. Spot prices of various log varieties in different regions were mostly stable [22]. - **News**: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remaining flat month - on - month. The trend strength is - 1 [24].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Instead, it gives individual ratings for different commodities in the black series: - Iron ore: Bullish consolidation supported by macro - expectations [2][4] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Wide - range consolidation, with attention on the electric - arc furnace production cut rhythm [2][7][8] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Wide - range consolidation, with a strong market wait - and - see atmosphere [2][12] - Coke and coking coal: Wide - range consolidation with fluctuating expectations [2][16][17] - Logs: Fluctuating repeatedly [2][19] 2. Core Views The report analyzes the market trends of various black - series commodities. It believes that different commodities are affected by different factors such as macro - economic conditions, supply - demand relationships, and industry policies, resulting in different price trends and market characteristics. For example, iron ore is supported by macro - expectations, while rebar and hot - rolled coil need to focus on the production cut rhythm of electric - arc furnaces [2][4][7][8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of iron ore closed at 790.5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (1.28%). The positions of I2601 increased by 12,200 hands. Among spot prices, imported ore prices generally rose by 2 yuan/ton, while domestic ore prices decreased by 15 yuan/ton. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Due to the US government shutdown, the US September non - farm payrolls and unemployment rate data were not released as scheduled [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: The futures prices of RB2601 and HC2601 were 3,096 yuan/ton and 3,286 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.19%) and 12 yuan/ton (0.37%) respectively. The positions of RB2601 and HC2601 increased. Spot prices generally rose, and the basis and spreads changed accordingly [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From January to August, China's industrial enterprise profits increased. The weekly data of steel products showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand. For example, in the week of October 8, the production of rebar decreased by 3.62 million tons, and the inventory increased by 23.96 million tons [9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures showed fluctuations. For example, the price of SF2511 decreased by 22 yuan/ton, and the price of SM2511 increased by 26 yuan/ton. Spot prices also changed, with ferrosilicon prices generally decreasing [12][13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese were affected by factors such as electricity prices and steel procurement. The export volume of South African manganese ore in August decreased month - on - month [12][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral trend [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The futures prices of JM2601 and J2601 increased by 38 yuan/ton (3.4%) and 31 yuan/ton (1.9%) respectively. Spot prices of coking coal and coke showed different changes, and the basis and spreads also changed [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The China Coking Industry Association stated that it had never issued or authorized any "forced production cut" or "joint price increase" notices or initiatives [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke is 0, and that of coking coal is 1, indicating a slightly bullish trend for coking coal [18]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: The prices, trading volumes, and positions of log futures contracts showed different trends. For example, the price of the 2511 contract increased by 0.8%, and the trading volume increased by 191.8%. Spot prices of logs in different regions and varieties were relatively stable [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Due to the US government shutdown, the US September non - farm payrolls and unemployment rate data were not released as scheduled [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral trend [22].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The report provides daily market analysis and trend forecasts for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs, suggesting that most commodities will experience wide fluctuations or repeated oscillations [2] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend Forecast**: Wide fluctuations [2][4] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of futures contract 12601 was 805 yuan/ton, with no change. The price of imported and domestic ores remained mostly stable, except for a 1 yuan increase in the price of Super Special ore (56.5%). Some basis and spread values changed slightly [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [4] - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [4] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - **Trend Forecast**: Wide fluctuations [2][6][7] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of RB2510 and HC2510 decreased, with trading volumes and positions changing. The spot prices in most regions declined. Some basis and spread values changed [7] - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China exported 951.0 million tons of steel, a 3.3% month-on-month decrease; imports were 50.0 million tons, a 10.6% month-on-month increase. In the week of September 4, the production of rebar and hot-rolled coils decreased, inventories increased, and apparent demand decreased [8][9] - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend Forecast**: Wide fluctuations affected by market sentiment [2][10] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of some futures contracts increased, with changes in trading volumes and positions. Spot prices and various spreads changed [10] - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 10, the prices of different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese varied by region. A steel company's procurement price of 75B ferrosilicon decreased. A large steel group increased its tender volume for silicomanganese in September, and the tender price decreased. UMK lowered its manganese ore price for China in October [10][11][12] - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend Forecast**: Wide fluctuations due to repeated expectations [2][14][15] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of JM2601 decreased, while J2601 increased. Spot prices of coking coal and coke changed, and some basis and spread values changed [15] - **Macro and Industry News**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued an action plan for stabilizing growth in the electronic information manufacturing industry from 2025 - 2026 [15] - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [15] Logs - **Trend Forecast**: Repeated oscillations [2][17] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different futures contracts changed, with varying daily and weekly price and volume fluctuations. Spot prices remained mostly stable [18] - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [20] - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [20]