近期，人民币对美元汇率连续升值引起市场关注，看涨情绪一度浓厚。不过，随着在岸和离岸的即期价 格在7.0这一关键点位"拉锯"，市场对后市人民币汇率是否会继续强势升值存在分歧，汇率双向波动将 是常态。 责编：万健祎 校对：彭其华 版权声明 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追究相 关行为主体法律责任的权利。 转载与合作可联系证券时报小助理，微信ID：SecuritiesTimes 汇率是不同货币之间的比价关系，短期看，人民币对美元汇率的走势不仅取决于我国外汇市场的供求关 系，也与美元指数的变化趋势有关。随着美联储12月降息落地，以及当前市场对各类利空美元的因素已 提前进行较为充分的定价，在后续几个月暂停降息的"空窗期"，美元下行压力或有所缓解。值得注意的 是，尽管近期人民币对美元汇率有所升值，但衡量人民币对一篮子货币汇率的CFETS人民币指数近两个 月来仍保持相对稳定，这也从侧面反映出美元走弱带动包括人民币在内的非美货币整体走强，但人民币 汇率仍在合理均衡水平上保持基本稳定。 此外，从以往央行操作看，央行高度重视防范汇率市场形成单边预期和自我强化的"羊群效应"，不排除 汇率 ...

近期，人民币对美元汇率连续升值引起市场关注，看涨情绪一度浓厚。不过，随着在岸和离 岸的即期价格在7.0这一关键点位"拉锯"，市场对后市人民币汇率是否会继续强势升值存在分 歧，汇率双向波动将是常态。 点击关键字可查看 潜望系列深度报道丨 股事会专栏 丨 投资小红书 丨 e公司调查 丨 时报会客厅 丨 十大明星私募访谈 丨 小米突发！高管拟减持不超过20亿美元股票！ 丨 A股，迎多项利好！ 丨 扩大财政支出盘子！财 政部，重磅会议！ 丨 俄乌突发！普京警告！ 丨 金融圈刷屏！售价12888元，"私募魔女"开投资课！ 李蓓："我不缺几千万" 丨 俄罗斯宣布重大战果！泽连斯基、特朗普会晤在即 丨 保壳！300472，获 赠不超3.3亿元现金资产+豁免不超0.5亿元债务 丨 人形机器人与具身智能，突传大消息！ 丨 数据产 业，重磅利好来了→ 丨 国家统计局，最新公布！ 对于企业、金融机构等市场参与者而言，汇率走势是"测不准"的，切莫盲目跟风、赌汇率走 势，还是要坚持风险中性理念，尽可能利用期权、期货等外汇衍生品工具，做好汇率风险管 理。 责编：万健祎 校对： 彭其华 版权声明 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权， ...

证券时报记者 孙璐璐 近期，人民币对美元汇率连续升值引起市场关注，看涨情绪一度浓厚。不过，随着在岸和离岸的即期价格在7.0这 一关键点位"拉锯"，市场对后市人民币汇率是否会继续强势升值存在分歧，汇率双向波动将是常态。 本轮人民币汇率的走强可追溯至今年10月中旬，截至目前，人民币对美元汇率升值幅度接近1.7%。一些观点认 为，近期人民币汇率走强主要受美联储降息带动美元指数走弱，以及岁末结汇需求不断释放等内外部因素影响。 不过，这些更多属于推动人民币阶段性升值的短期、季节性扰动因素，不能简单线性推导认为人民币就此进入持 续单边升值通道，人民币汇率走势仍存在较大不确定性。 汇率是不同货币之间的比价关系，短期看，人民币对美元汇率的走势不仅取决于我国外汇市场的供求关系，也与 美元指数的变化趋势有关。随着美联储12月降息落地，以及当前市场对各类利空美元的因素已提前进行较为充分 的定价，在后续几个月暂停降息的"空窗期"，美元下行压力或有所缓解。值得注意的是，尽管近期人民币对美元 汇率有所升值，但衡量人民币对一篮子货币汇率的CFETS人民币指数近两个月来仍保持相对稳定，这也从侧面反 映出美元走弱带动包括人民币在内的非美货币整 ...

Core Insights - The Ningbo branch of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange has focused on addressing the challenges faced by foreign-related enterprises in managing exchange rate risks, achieving a significant increase in the hedging rate to 30.1% in the first seven months of this year, up 11.7 percentage points year-on-year, marking a historical high [1][2] Group 1: Policy Implementation - The branch has implemented targeted policies to support small and micro enterprises, recognizing their sensitivity to exchange rate hedging costs, and has introduced various subsidy measures from 2021 to 2024 [1] - New policies introduced in April 2023, including subsidies for foreign trade enterprises' option business costs, have significantly reduced operational costs for businesses [1] Group 2: Service Enhancement - The branch has improved service quality by encouraging banks to reduce fees and offer preferential spreads, as well as providing specialized credit for exchange rate hedging that does not count against the total credit limit of enterprises [2] - The efficiency of processing hedging transactions has been greatly enhanced, reducing the time taken from 10-15 minutes to under 30 seconds [2] Group 3: Education and Awareness - The branch has promoted the concept of risk neutrality in exchange rate hedging through multiple outreach activities, reaching over 600 enterprises this year [2] - A network of foreign exchange liaison officers has been established, with over 1,100 personnel visiting 26,000 enterprises to provide policy services and enhance awareness of exchange rate risk management [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has drafted a notice to enhance the framework for cross-border interbank financing in Renminbi, aiming to support the development of the offshore Renminbi market and improve policy transparency and consistency [1][2][3]. Group 1: Policy Development - The notice aims to unify the management of cross-border interbank financing, which includes various forms of Renminbi liquidity provision between domestic and foreign banks [1][3]. - Since 2009, various cross-border interbank financing products have been introduced, but the previous management lacked clarity and transparency, necessitating a more structured approach [3][4]. - The notice reflects a balance between fostering innovation in cross-border financing and ensuring regulatory compliance [4][5]. Group 2: Market Demand and Stability - The demand for Renminbi liquidity in the offshore market has increased, with the cross-border payment amount expected to reach 64 trillion yuan in 2024 [2]. - The notice is designed to stimulate domestic banks' willingness to engage in cross-border financing by providing clearer rules and reducing operational uncertainties [4][5]. - By linking the net outflow limits to banks' capital levels, the notice encourages a risk-neutral approach among financial institutions, promoting stable and healthy business development [5][6]. Group 3: Macro-Prudential Management - The notice introduces a macro-prudential management framework for cross-border interbank financing, allowing the PBOC to adjust parameters to manage liquidity flow effectively [6]. - This framework is intended to provide a stable and orderly outflow of Renminbi to foreign markets while maintaining risk control [6].

Core Insights - The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) Binzhou Branch has focused on enhancing foreign exchange hedging services to support local foreign trade enterprises in navigating market fluctuations and achieving stable operations [1][2][3] Group 1: Business Performance - As of the end of July, the bank's foreign exchange derivative product business volume reached 504 million USD, a significant increase of 100 million USD year-on-year [1] - The corporate hedging ratio reached 29.2%, a substantial increase of 10 percentage points compared to the same period last year, indicating enhanced effectiveness of hedging services [1] Group 2: Mechanism and Responsibility - The bank has optimized its assessment and incentive mechanisms by incorporating key indicators such as "hedging ratio" and "first-time client expansion" into the KPI evaluation system for local branches, thereby increasing the emphasis and execution motivation at all levels [1] Group 3: Professional Development - A specialized team of 20 core international business talents has been established, focusing on enhancing service capabilities through various training methods, which has improved the efficiency and professionalism of grassroots service responses [1] Group 4: Client Engagement and Strategy - The bank has created a foreign trade enterprise exchange platform to provide daily updates on RMB exchange rates, product quotes, and policy dynamics, along with real-time online consultation services [2] - The bank has successfully designed innovative hedging solutions, such as a "zero-cost risk reversal option combination product," to assist an import enterprise in managing a 40 million USD hedging business, effectively locking in better costs [2] - The bank has also implemented a "proportional forward option combination" for a large export enterprise, enhancing its settlement price and accurately avoiding exchange rate decline risks [2] Group 5: Future Outlook - The ICBC Binzhou Branch aims to uphold the "risk-neutral" principle, continuously enhance the professionalism of financial services, and improve the foreign exchange hedging service system to support foreign trade enterprises in achieving sustainable high-quality development [3]