在房贷市场动用"两房"购买MBS、被市场称为"特朗普QE"之后，特朗普再次把手伸向了更具政治敏感性的领域——信用卡利率。 从试图压低抵押贷款成本，到提出将信用卡利率上限强行设为10%，特朗普政府正在以行政权力，连续介入本应由市场和美联储主导的利率形成机制。 这已不再是零散的政策试探，而是一条清晰的主线： 当美联储不愿、也不能迅速配合降息时，白宫正在绕过央行，直接干预"选民最能感知的利率"。 利率之争的本质：不是通胀，而是选民的月供和账单 从政治经济学角度看，特朗普的出手并不难理解。 在高利率环境下，真正持续制造政治压力的，并非抽象的"联邦基金利率"，而是两项直接进入家庭资产负债表的指标： 房贷利率与信用卡利率 。 对普通选民而言，这两项远比CPI或核心通胀更直观、更具痛感。 在多次公开施压美联储降息未果后，特朗普政府显然已经得出一个判断： 如果无法改变政策利率，那就直接改变利率传导的终点。 房贷干预：一场"准QE"的行政实验 在房贷市场，特朗普政府选择了一条相对"技术性"的路径。 通过指令房利美和房地美购买MBS，白宫的目标并非直接压低无风险利率，而是 对冲美联储缩表所造成的MBS需求缺口 ，压缩抵押贷款与国 ...

对于下阶段货币政策主要思路，会议认为，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，加大逆周期和跨周期调节 力度，更好发挥货币政策工具的总量和结构双重功能，加强货币财政政策协同配合，促进经济稳定增长 和物价合理回升。"这与中央经济工作会议确定的货币政策基调保持高度一致，显示2026年货币政策会 延续支持性立场，在稳增长方向进一步发力。"东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青如是分析。 会议认为，今年以来宏观调控力度加大，货币政策适度宽松，持续发力、适时加力，强化逆周期调节， 综合运用多种货币政策工具，服务实体经济高质量发展，为经济稳中向好创造适宜的货币金融环境。 "2025年，适度宽松的货币政策加大了对实体经济的金融支持力度。"中国首席经济学家论坛理事长连平 在接受《金融时报》记者采访时谈到，一方面灵活运用公开市场操作和降准保持银行体系流动性充裕， 支持商业银行向企业和居民增加投放信贷，加强对重大战略、重点领域和薄弱环节的金融服务。1-11月 共投放信贷15.4万亿元，增速为6.4%。另一方面，运用结构性工具，积极推动和支持金融机构做好金 融"五篇大文章"。加力支持高水平科技自立自强和科技强国建设，提高对经济社会发展全面绿色转型和 美丽 ...

12月22日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布的新一期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）显示， 12月1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%，维持上期报价不变。今年以来，1年期和5年期以上LPR 分别累计下降10个基点，促进贷款利率稳中有降。 LPR报价由央行政策利率和报价行报价加点共同决定。自今年5月LPR报价跟随当月央行降息下降10个 基点后，作为央行政策利率的7天期逆回购利率再无调整，这意味着LPR报价的定价基础未发生变化。 与此同时，今年以来商业银行整体处于偏低的净息差水平，也导致报价行缺乏主动下调LPR报价加点的 意愿。 此外，央行今年以来持续畅通利率传导机制，也推动了社会综合融资成本下行。一方面，央行引导各地 逐步有序加入明示企业贷款综合融资成本试点，有效保障金融消费者知情权；另一方面，央行强化利率 政策执行和监督，督促金融机构坚持风险定价原则，合理确定存贷款利率，维护市场竞争秩序。同时， 充分发挥利率自律机制作用，大力治理资金空转、手工补息等行为，稳定银行负债成本。 央行最新数据显示，11月企业新发放贷款（本外币）加权平均利率约为3.1%，比上年同期低约30个基 点；个人住房新发放 ...

Core Viewpoint - The core issue in current financial reform is balancing the reduction of financing costs for the real economy with the sustainability of financial institutions, as highlighted by the People's Bank of China's report indicating that the phenomenon of corporate loan rates being lower than government bond rates is unsustainable [2] Group 1: Transmission Blockages - The transmission of monetary policy is hindered by several structural issues, including the distortion caused by inverted interest rates, where corporate loan rates are lower than government bond yields, undermining the risk pricing logic [3][4] - The narrowing of bank interest margins restricts banks' willingness and ability to transmit policy changes to the real economy, with the net interest margin for commercial banks at a historical low of 1.42% in Q3 2025, down 12 basis points from 1.54% in the same period of 2024 [5] - The stagnation of the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) adjustment, which has remained unchanged for six months, reflects constraints on further monetary easing and affects the efficiency of policy transmission [6] Group 2: Structural Issues - The asymmetry in the adjustment of deposit and loan rates creates a dilemma for banks, as rapid declines in loan rates are not matched by corresponding decreases in deposit costs, further squeezing interest margins [7] - There is a regional and structural disparity in interest rate transmission, where developed eastern regions and large state-owned enterprises can access financing at lower costs compared to small and private enterprises in central and western regions [8] Group 3: Optimization Paths - To address these transmission blockages, six key optimization paths are proposed, including enhancing the interest rate corridor to improve the effectiveness of policy rate transmission and deepening the marketization of deposit rates [9][10] - Building a modern financial institution system that encourages differentiated competition and focuses on core business areas is essential for improving the competitive environment in the financial sector [11][12] - The use of structural monetary policy tools should be strengthened to provide targeted support for key areas such as technology innovation and small enterprises, ensuring that policy benefits reach the intended recipients [13][14] - Improving the risk pricing mechanism is crucial to address issues of interest rate inversion and pricing disorder, which includes enhancing the credit system and reforming internal bank assessment mechanisms [14] - Establishing a coordinated financial regulatory mechanism is necessary to maintain a conducive environment for interest rate transmission and to prevent regulatory arbitrage [15]

Core Insights - The liquidity in the U.S. financial system is being significantly impacted by JPMorgan Chase's strategic shift of $350 billion from reserves at the Federal Reserve to U.S. Treasury securities, leading to a contraction in overall system reserves [3] - JPMorgan's holdings of U.S. Treasuries surged from $231 billion to $450 billion, nearly doubling, as the bank aims to lock in future yields before anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][4] - The actions of a single institution, such as JPMorgan, can have substantial effects on overall market liquidity, raising concerns among regulators about financial stability [4][5] Group 1 - JPMorgan Chase has moved $350 billion from Federal Reserve reserves to U.S. Treasury securities, causing total bank deposits at the Fed to drop from $1.9 trillion to $1.6 trillion [3] - Excluding JPMorgan, the remaining 4,000 banks have seen a net increase in reserves, indicating that JPMorgan's actions are counteracting the overall banking sector's liquidity [3] - The bank's strategy is driven by the declining interest on reserves (IORB), which has decreased from a peak of 5.4% [3] Group 2 - JPMorgan's Treasury holdings increased significantly, with market speculation suggesting the bank is extending asset duration and using interest rate swaps to prepare for a low-rate environment [3][4] - The bank received $15 billion in interest from the Federal Reserve in 2024, which constitutes about 25% of its projected annual profit of $58.5 billion [4] - The ongoing debate regarding the Federal Reserve's interest on reserves and its impact on credit availability for the real economy has been reignited, highlighting potential conflicts between individual bank strategies and macroeconomic stability [4][5]

Core Insights - The report highlights a continuation of a loose monetary policy in China, with the People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducting a 3-month reverse repurchase agreement to maintain liquidity in the banking system [4][5] - The bond market is experiencing a downward trend, with yields on major government bonds rising across the board, indicating market panic and selling pressure [12][13] - Several companies, including Vanke and Country Garden, are facing significant challenges, with Vanke's bonds experiencing steep declines and Country Garden's restructuring plans being approved [15][16] Domestic News - The PBOC announced a fixed amount of 1 trillion yuan for a 3-month reverse repurchase operation to ensure ample liquidity in the banking system, effectively rolling over the same amount that is maturing [4] - PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng emphasized the need to enhance the role of policy interest rates and improve the transmission mechanism of interest rates in the economy [5][6] - Foreign institutions, including OECD and Goldman Sachs, have raised their GDP growth forecasts for China, with projections for 2025 increased from 4.9% to 5.0% [6] International News - In the U.S., planned layoffs in November decreased significantly, but the total number of layoffs for the year remains at a high level, indicating a cautious labor market [7] - The global economic environment is characterized by uncertainty, affecting hiring intentions among employers [7] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market has seen a significant sell-off, with the yield on the 10-year government bond rising to 1.8500%, reflecting market fears [13] - The report notes that several bonds from Vanke have seen drastic price declines, with some bonds dropping over 82% [15][16] Credit Bond Events - Country Garden's bond restructuring proposal was approved, allowing for a debt reduction of approximately $1.17 billion [16] - Other companies, such as Peng Bo Shi, have reported difficulties in meeting debt obligations, with outstanding bonds totaling around $218.54 million [16] Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market is also experiencing a downturn, with major indices declining and a significant number of individual bonds falling in value [16][17] - The report mentions specific convertible bonds that have seen notable price movements, with some increasing by over 9% while others have decreased significantly [18][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The monetary policy operation will continue the loose tone, with the focus shifting to price control. The next - stage monetary policy is expected to maintain the general tone of moderate looseness, deepen price - control policy reform, and use structural tools around key areas [3]. - The interest rate transmission path of price - based tools is optimized, and there is still room for interest rate cuts. The "five - group interest rate comparison relationships" are gradually straightened out, and it is expected that the policy interest rate may be cut by 20BP in 2026, possibly in the first half of the year [4]. - For quantity - based tools, the high - volume roll - over of repurchase and MLF limits the space for reserve requirement ratio cuts. The necessity of reserve requirement ratio cuts is not high, and the focus in 2026 is on whether the current medium - and long - term liquidity injection model will continue [5]. - In the broad liquidity aspect, the de - leveraging cycle continues, and government bonds support the stabilization of the social financing growth rate. It is estimated that the social financing increment in 2026 will be slightly higher than that in 2025, about 34.5 trillion yuan [5]. - The narrow - sense liquidity will maintain a narrow - range fluctuation, and the expectation is to maintain a reasonable and sufficient level. The narrow - sense liquidity will continue the low - volatility and stable state, and the central bank is expected to ensure the stable operation of the capital market through flexible open - market operations [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 General Introduction: Monetary Policy Operation Continues the Loose Tone, with the Focus Shifting to Price Control - **Summary and Review**: In 2025, the monetary policy shifted from prudent to moderately loose. Quantity injection and price control jointly promoted reasonable and sufficient liquidity. The operation framework reform continued to deepen, and structural monetary policies effectively supported key areas [12][13][14]. - **Next - stage Monetary Policy Outlook**: In 2026, the liquidity is expected to remain reasonably sufficient, and the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies will continue to improve. The reform of the monetary policy framework will deepen, and structural tools will strengthen policy support in key areas [16][18][19]. 3.2 Price - based Tools: Interest Rate Transmission Path is Optimized, and Small - scale Interest Rate Cuts are Still Anticipated - **Five - group Interest Rate Relationships are Gradually Straightened Out, and the Possibility of a New Round of Interest Rate Cuts is Achieved**: The central bank proposed the "five - group interest rate comparison relationships" in the Q3 2025 monetary policy report. These relationships are in a relatively repaired state, providing a possibility for the central bank to further cut the policy interest rate in 2026 [21][31]. - **In 2026, Price Control will be Mainly Stable, and the Interest Rate Cut Space is Expected to be within 20BP**: Considering the economic situation, interest rate system, bank system's bearing capacity, and fiscal - monetary coordination, there is still about 20BP of space for policy interest rate cuts in 2026 [33][34]. 3.3 Quantity - based Tools: High - volume Roll - over of Repurchase and MLF, and the Space for Reserve Requirement Ratio Cuts May be Limited - **Medium - and Long - term Liquidity Injection is Well - coordinated, and MLF and Outright Repurchase are Expanded Synchronously**: In 2025, the liquidity injection of quantity - based tools formed an institutional arrangement. Outright repurchase and MLF were expanded synchronously, effectively hedging the impact of the concentrated maturity of structural monetary policies. Some structural policy tools are shrinking, and the central bank's bond - buying operation restarted cautiously [35][39][41]. - **System Optimization is a Necessary Prerequisite for Opening up the Space for Reserve Requirement Ratio Cuts**: Currently, the necessity of reserve requirement ratio cuts is significantly reduced. Unless the 5% constraint is broken, the trend is to淡化 reserve requirement ratio cuts and expand tools [43][44]. 3.4 Broad Liquidity: The De - leveraging Cycle Continues, and Government Bonds Support the Stabilization of the Social Financing Growth Rate - **Credit and Social Financing**: The de - leveraging cycle of residents and enterprises continues, and the credit growth rate faces continuous pressure. In 2025, the short - term loans and bill financing of enterprises increased significantly, and government and enterprise bond financing supported the social financing scale. It is estimated that the credit and social financing in 2026 will increase slightly [45][51][54]. - **Deposits**: Personal savings deposits maintain high - slope growth, non - bank deposits show high - volatility and high - growth characteristics, unit current deposits are weakly recovering, and unit time deposits are declining. The liability side of large banks is gradually stabilizing [56][58][59]. 3.5 Narrow - sense Liquidity: The Capital Market Fluctuates Narrowly, and the Expectation is to Maintain a Reasonable and Sufficient Level - In 2025, the capital market style changed significantly after the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut in May. The narrow - sense liquidity will continue the "low - volatility and stable state" in 2026, with the price center moving down and the volatility further converging. There may be potential liquidity frictions in the first quarter of 2026, but the central bank is expected to ensure the stable operation of the capital market [66][69][70].

Group 1: Central Bank Policy Rates and Market Rates - The relationship between central bank policy rates and market rates focuses on two dimensions: OMO leading to funding rates and short-term government bond rates, and OMO influencing funding rates, short-term rates, and ten-year government bond yields. Since May, the DR001 funding rate has returned to fluctuate near the policy rate, indicating a stable funding environment ahead [1][17][19] - The MLF policy rate's role has been gradually diminished, with OMO rate plus an average of 70 basis points becoming the new anchor for ten-year government bond yields. Currently, the spread between ten-year government bonds and OMO is stable at around 40 basis points, which is slightly low compared to historical levels [1][19][20] Group 2: Commercial Banks' Asset and Liability Rates - The efficiency of the transmission of policy rates to deposit and loan rates has varied, leading to a continuous compression of banks' net interest margins. The central bank is enhancing the linkage between asset and liability rates to stabilize bank margins, with expectations that the pressure on net interest margins will ease in the future [2][20][26] - The decline in deposit rates has been slower compared to loan rates, with the average loan rate dropping by 2.38 percentage points since August 2019, while the average deposit rate has only decreased by 0.25 percentage points for demand deposits [2][20][21] Group 3: Relationships Among Different Asset Yields - There exists a relative relationship among various asset yields, such as deposit rates, loan rates, bond yields, and stock dividend yields. The average personal housing loan interest rate is currently around 3.1%, while the adjusted yield on 30-year government bonds is higher by approximately 20 basis points, indicating a favorable comparison for bonds over loans [3][28][29] - The downward adjustment of loan rates may face constraints due to the existing yield relationships, as the loan rates have remained relatively stable despite reductions in LPR and deposit rates [3][29] Group 4: Term and Risk Rate Relationships - The current level of term spreads is low, with expectations that the spreads will widen due to regulatory attitudes, stable funding conditions, and nominal GDP recovery. The credit spreads for short-term bonds are at historical lows, while mid to long-term bonds show slightly better value but with higher volatility [4][41][42] - The pricing of different risk rates is fundamentally a matter of credit spreads, which are influenced by liquidity premiums and credit risk premiums. The current credit spreads for various ratings are at low levels, indicating potential opportunities for investment [4][44][45] Group 5: Implications for Monetary Policy and Market Dynamics - The central bank's focus on maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships is crucial for macroeconomic balance and resource allocation. The recent emphasis on these relationships may lead to a more systematic and refined approach to monitoring and managing market rates [10][59] - The dynamics of the bond market are currently influenced by concerns over potential fund redemptions and the impact of new public offering regulations, which may limit the market's ability to respond positively to favorable economic indicators [9][60][61]

Macroeconomic Environment - The US government has ended its longest shutdown, with a temporary funding bill supporting most government departments until January 30, 2026, requiring further negotiations thereafter [3] - Economic data releases in the US are delayed, with upcoming non-farm payroll data expected to show a significant cooling in the job market, potentially leading to another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [3][4] - In Europe, industrial production has underperformed expectations, but economic sentiment indicators are improving, with the European Central Bank focusing on economic recovery while expressing concerns about inflation [4] Domestic Economic Conditions - In China, new social financing in October decreased year-on-year, impacted by the real estate cycle and local government debt repayments, leading to suppressed corporate loans [4] - Monetary aggregates M1 and M2 have slowed in growth, with ongoing issues such as slow fiscal fund disbursement and a decline in fixed asset investment growth [4] - High-frequency data indicates a decline in real estate transactions, while agricultural wholesale prices have slightly increased; upstream prices for coking coal and coke have dropped, while non-ferrous metals and gold prices have strengthened [4] Financial Data and Market Trends - October's credit data was weak, aligning with the third-quarter monetary policy report indicating a decrease in indirect financing ratios; a new 500 billion yuan policy financial tool is expected to boost credit demand [8] - The bond market has seen a narrow fluctuation in yields, with a total issuance of 98 bonds amounting to 679.6 billion yuan during the reporting period, indicating an increase in both national and local special bond issuance [9] - The market outlook suggests that while inflation data has shown some improvement, credit data remains weak, and the bond market is currently desensitized to fundamental data [10]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the importance of maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy and reduce arbitrage opportunities in the financial system [1][2]. Interest Rate Transmission Mechanism - The report discusses the transmission mechanism of policy interest rates through the financial system to various market rates, highlighting the need for a market-oriented interest rate system to function effectively [1]. - It is noted that different financial instruments have varying characteristics, leading to a diverse range of interest rates and the formation of price relationships [1]. Key Interest Rate Relationships - The report identifies several critical interest rate relationships that require attention: - The relationship between central bank policy rates and market rates, where market rates should align closely with policy rates to ensure effective transmission [3]. - The relationship between asset and liability rates of commercial banks, where discrepancies can compress net interest margins and affect banks' ability to support the real economy [3]. - The relationship between different asset yields, emphasizing that the financing costs for the same entity should not diverge excessively between bond yields and loan rates [3]. - The relationship between short-term and long-term rates, which should maintain a reasonable term spread [3]. - The relationship between different risk rates, where higher credit ratings should correspond to lower financing costs, ensuring adherence to risk pricing principles [3]. Regulatory Measures and Future Directions - Recent regulatory efforts have aimed to stabilize banks' net interest margins and manage interest rates effectively, with noticeable improvements [4]. - The central bank plans to continue monitoring the identified interest rate relationships and implement measures to ensure compliance with self-regulatory mechanisms, including the establishment of reporting mechanisms for deposit rates and loan pricing [4]. - Ongoing assessments of financial institutions' adherence to interest rate policies will be conducted to maintain reasonable net interest margins and expand the counter-cyclical adjustment space for monetary policy [4].