Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current raw sugar price has factored in some expectations of Indian sugar exports and Brazil's next crop season production increase. In the future, the raw sugar price will adjust in the process of continuous expectation adjustment. In the domestic market, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China predicts that the sugar production in the 2025/26 season will be 11.7 million tons, 500,000 tons higher than last month's forecast. The total sugar output slightly exceeds expectations. Currently, 26 sugar mills in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang have all started production, with a total expected output of 1.4 million tons. Five sugar mills in Yunnan have started production, and the old sugar in Guangxi has basically been cleared. The delayed start of production in Guangxi has put some pressure on the spot market, while the lack of intention to reduce the price of processed sugar provides support at the lower end [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar is 5,458 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the main contract position is 359,183 lots, down 11,059 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 8,622, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -52,091 lots; the valid warehouse receipt forecast is 183, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,090 yuan/ton, up 112 yuan; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota is 5,182 yuan/ton, up 146 yuan; the estimated price of imported Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 4,177 yuan/ton, up 112 yuan; the estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,296 yuan/ton, up 146 yuan; the spot price of white sugar in Kunming, Yunnan is 5,630 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the spot price of white sugar in Nanning, Guangxi is 5,760 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of white sugar in Liuzhou, Guangxi is 5,730 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the planting area of sugar cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares; the cumulative sugar production nationwide is 1,457 million tons, down 85 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The cumulative production of cane sugar in Yunnan is 1,116.21 million tons, up 5.49 million tons; the cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi is 241.88 million tons; the total sugar exports from Brazil are 602.29 million tons, up 95.92 million tons; the import volume of sugar in the current month is 55 million tons, down 28 million tons; the cumulative import volume of sugar is 316 million tons, up 55 million tons; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,370 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 365 yuan/ton, down 119 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 251 yuan/ton, down 119 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly production of refined sugar is 53.91 million tons, up 8.5 million tons; the monthly production of soft drinks is 1,591.7 million tons, down 184.1 million tons [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at-the-money call options for sugar is 6.3%, up 1.34%; the implied volatility of at-the-money put options for sugar is 6.3%, up 1.34%; the 20-day historical volatility of sugar is 6.37%, up 0.78%; the 60-day historical volatility of sugar is 6.75%, up 0.16% [2] Industry News - According to the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (Unica), in the second half of October 2025, the central-southern region of Brazil crushed 31.108 million tons of sugarcane, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%; produced 2.068 million tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 16.4%, with a sugar production ratio of 46.02%, higher than 45.91% in the same period last year. As of November 1, 2025, in the 2025/26 sugar season (April 2025 - March 2026), the central-southern region had cumulatively crushed 556 million tons of sugarcane, a year-on-year decrease of 1.97%, and cumulatively produced 38.085 million tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 1.63%. India maintains its sugar export policy for the 2025/26 season. In the 2024/25 sugar season, India exported 800,000 tons of sugar, lower than the initially set export quota of 1 million tons [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose slightly, with a weekly increase of about 0.24%. The price of the ICE US Sugar March contract also rose, with a weekly increase of about 2.12%, while the international raw sugar spot price was 13.93 cents per pound, down 0.21 cents per pound from last week [5][10][18]. - In the 2025/26 season, India maintains its sugar export policy. In the 2024/25 season, India has exported 800,000 tons of sugar, less than the initially set export quota of 1 million tons. The current raw sugar price has factored in some expectations of Indian sugar exports and Brazil's production increase in the next season, and the price will be adjusted as expectations are revised [5]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China predicts that China's sugar production in the 2025/26 season will be 11.7 million tons, an increase of 500,000 tons from last month's forecast, mainly due to a slight increase in the national sugar - crop planting area, good growth of southern sugarcane, and a slight increase in the sugar content of northern sugar beets [5]. - Currently, a total of 26 sugar mills in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang have all started production, with a total expected output of 1.4 million tons. Five sugar mills in Yunnan have started production, and the old - sugar stocks in Guangxi are basically cleared. The delay in the start of production in Guangxi puts some pressure on the spot market, while the processing sugar has little intention to reduce prices, providing support at the lower end [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights - **Market Review**: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose slightly this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.24% [5]. - **Market Outlook**: In the international market, the raw sugar price will adjust as expectations are revised. In the domestic market, sugar production is expected to increase, and the delay in the start of production in Guangxi affects the spot market [5]. - **Future Focus**: Domestic production and sales, and new - season production estimates [6] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The price of the ICE US Sugar March contract rose by about 2.12% this week. The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose by about 0.24%. The net position of the top 20 in the Zhengzhou sugar futures is - 48,324 lots, and the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts is 8,622. The price difference between the Zhengzhou sugar futures 1 - 5 contracts is + 66 yuan/ton, and the spot - Zhengzhou sugar basis is + 290 yuan/ton [10][19][26][30]. - **Spot Market**: As of November 14, the old - sugar stocks are being cleared, and there is no new quotation. The estimated profit of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 1,813 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota is 539 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan/ton from last week. The estimated profit of Thai sugar within the quota is 1,533 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota is 467 yuan/ton, up 77 yuan/ton from last week [37][43]. 3.3. Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side** - **Production**: As of the end of October 2025, the national sugar production in the 2024/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons, or 12.03% [48]. - **Industrial Inventory**: As of August 2025, the domestic sugar industrial inventory was 1.1623 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 450,000 tons or 27.91%, and a year - on - year increase of 60,100 tons or 5.45% [51]. - **Imports**: In September 2025, China's sugar imports were 550,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 27.78% and a month - on - month decrease of 280,000 tons. From January to September 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 3.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.89% [55]. - **Demand Side** - **Sales Rate**: As of the end of October 2025, the sugar mills in the 2024/25 season have all stopped production. The national sugar production in this season was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons, or 12.03% [61]. - **Production of Related Products**: In September 2025, China's monthly production of refined sugar was 539,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.4%. The monthly production of soft drinks was 15.9167 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9% [65]. 3.4. Options and Stock - Related Markets - **Options Market**: Information about the implied volatility of the at - the - money options of sugar this week is provided, but specific data is not described in detail [67]. - **Stock Market**: Information about the price - to - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry is provided, but specific data is not described in detail [72]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balance between long and short trends with poor operability on the current market [1] - Sugar: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Apple: ★★★, representing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Log: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, meaning a bullish drive but poor operability on the market [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish drive but poor operability on the market [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish drive but poor operability on the market [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, natural rubber, pulp, log, etc., and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, price trends, and macro - economic factors [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose today. Spot cotton prices were stable, and the Xinjiang cotton purchase price was slightly stronger, raising new cotton costs. As of October 26, the national cumulative cotton inspection volume was 135.55 million tons. The peak season was weak, with insufficient new orders for cotton yarn spinning enterprises. Zhengzhou cotton's short - term rise was a rebound with limited space. It's recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. Brazil's sugar production will remain high. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand are about to start squeezing, with expected increased production. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar was relatively strong, with potential syrup import control. The market focused on the next season's output estimate. Sugar prices are expected to remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price was strong. High - quality apples' prices were stable, while low - quality ones were weak. High - quality apples were in short supply, and low - quality ones had inventory pressure. The market focused on cold - storage inventory. National apple bagging volume decreased slightly year - on - year, and production might be adjusted down. New - season cold - storage initial inventory might be higher than expected. It's recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Stimulated by the news of Sino - US leaders' meeting, RU&NR fluctuated up, and BR first declined then rose. Global natural rubber supply was in the high - yield period. Last week, domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate rose slightly. Tire operating rate recovered slightly, and product inventory increased. Qingdao's natural rubber inventory decreased, while butadiene rubber social inventory increased. The strategy is to bet on a rebound and focus on cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [5] Pulp - Pulp futures rose slightly today. As of October 23, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 2.055 billion tons, a decrease of 190,000 tons from the previous period. In September, domestic pulp imports increased year - on - year. Supply was relatively loose, and demand was average. It's recommended to wait and see or do short - term operations [6] Log - The futures price was weak. Spot prices were stable. In October, New Zealand radiata pine quotes increased. Domestic importers' willingness declined. Port outbound volume was over 60,000 cubic meters, and inventory was low. Low inventory supported prices. It's recommended to wait and see [7]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The sugar market is expected to mainly experience range-bound oscillations [1] 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - The raw sugar price is 16.52 cents per pound, with a year-on-year increase of 0.05 cents; the mainstream spot price is 5,940 yuan per ton, unchanged year-on-year; the futures main contract price is 5,540 yuan per ton, a year-on-year decrease of 16 yuan [1] - The 91 spread is 0 yuan per ton, a year-on-year increase of 26 yuan; the 15 spread is 23 yuan per ton, a year-on-year decrease of 9 yuan; the mainstream spot basis is 400 yuan per ton, a year-on-year increase of 16 yuan [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - High-frequency information reveals that India's monsoon precipitation has strengthened again, and Brazil's exports have declined, raising concerns about global consumption. Brazil exported 3.74 million tons in August, a 5% year-on-year decrease, and 3.59 million tons in July, also a 5% year-on-year decrease [1] - Conab has lowered the forecast for Brazil's sugar production in the 25/26 season to 44.5 million tons, down from the previous estimate of 45.9 million tons [1] - China imported 740,000 tons of sugar in July, an increase of 320,000 tons [1] 3.3 Domestic Market - CAOC predicts that China's sugar production in the 24/25 season will be 11.16 million tons, consumption will be 15.8 million tons, and imports will be 5 million tons. For the 25/26 season, production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons, and imports 5 million tons [2] - As of the end of May in the 24/25 season, China produced 11.16 million tons of sugar, an increase of 1.2 million tons, and sold 8.11 million tons, an increase of 1.52 million tons. The cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.7% [2] - As of the end of July in the 24/25 season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 3.24 million tons, a decrease of 340,000 tons [2] - In the 25/26 season, the market anticipates a decline in the sugar yield rate and an increase in production costs in Guangxi [2] 3.4 International Market - ISO's initial forecast indicates a global sugar supply shortage of 230,000 tons in the 25/26 season and 4.88 million tons in the 24/25 season [3] - As of August 16 in the 25/26 season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in Brazil's central-southern region decreased by 6.6 percentage points year-on-year, with cumulative sugar production at 22.89 million tons, a decrease of 1.12 million tons. The cumulative MIX was 52.51%, a year-on-year increase of 3.37 percentage points [3] - ISMA/NFCSF predicts that India's total sugar production in the 25/26 season will be 34.9 million tons, up from 29.5 million tons in the 24/25 season, an increase of 5.4 million tons [3] - Thailand's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 10.08 million tons, an increase of 1.27 million tons [3] 3.5 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of sugar is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4]