1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International sugar prices are likely to oscillate within a range. Zhengzhou sugar's short - term trend may be slightly stronger with oscillations, and it is recommended to buy at low prices and sell at high prices. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see, and in the short - term, sell put options [3][4]. - The increase in sugar production in India and Thailand this season is likely to be less than the previous market expectations. The global sugar production forecast for the 2025/26 season has been lowered, and most global institutions are recently lowering the global sugar production forecast for the 2026/27 season, which supports international sugar prices. However, considering the start of the new Brazilian sugar - crushing season in April and May, there will be greater supply pressure in the market, so international sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [3]. - In the domestic market, the domestic sugar is currently in the peak crushing period, and the domestic sugar production this season is likely to increase significantly, so there is some pressure on the supply side. However, considering the current low sugar prices and the possible further tightening of import - end policies in the future, the sugar price is expected to be intertwined with long and short factors, with a general trend of bottom - end oscillation. But considering the recent sharp increase in crude oil prices, the domestic sugar price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral**: International sugar prices are likely to oscillate within a range. Zhengzhou sugar's short - term trend may be slightly stronger with oscillations, and it is recommended to buy at low prices and sell at high prices [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [4]. - **Options**: Sell put options in the short - term [4]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes - Lowered Production Expectations** - The ISO predicts that the global sugar production in the 2025/26 season will be 181.29 million tons, a decrease of 480,000 tons from the previous forecast; the global sugar consumption will be 180.07 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons from the previous forecast; the global sugar market surplus will be 1.22 million tons, a decrease of 410,000 tons from the previous forecast [8]. - Czarnikow predicts that the global sugar market surplus in the 2025/26 season will be 6.7 million tons, a decrease of 700,000 tons from the previous estimate; the global sugar production will be 184.4 million tons, a decrease of 2.3 million tons from the previous estimate. The production in India is expected to decrease from 32.8 million tons to 30.2 million tons [8]. - Green Pool predicts that the global sugar market will have a surplus for the second consecutive year in the 2026/27 season, and the surplus will drop to 156,000 tons, mainly due to the decline in sugar production [8]. - Datagro predicts that there will be a supply gap of 800,000 tons in the global sugar market in the 2025/26 season, and the supply gap will further widen to 2.68 million tons in the 2026/27 season [8]. - **Brazilian Sugar - Crushing Season** - **End of the Crushing Season**: In the second half of January, the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 609,000 tons, an increase of 370,000 tons compared to the same period last year, with a year - on - year increase of 154.39%. The sugar production was 5,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared to the same period last year, with a year - on - year decrease of 36.31% [9]. - **Lower - than - Expected Increase in Production**: As of the second half of January in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 601.644 million tons, a decrease of 13.286 million tons compared to the same period last year, with a year - on - year decrease of 2.16%. The cumulative sugar production was 40.24 million tons, an increase of 341,000 tons compared to the same period last year, with a year - on - year increase of 0.86%. The increase in sugar production this season may only be 300,000 - 400,000 tons, less than the previously expected increase of 1 million tons [12]. - **Ethanol Production and Sales**: The current ethanol - to - sugar price is about 17.2 cents per pound, and the alcohol - to - gasoline price ratio in the São Paulo region is about 0.724. The ethanol - to - sugar price is significantly higher than the current spot raw - sugar price, so the sugar - making ratio in the new sugar - crushing season starting in April in Brazil is likely to be low. The sugar - making ratio this season is 50.6%. A one - point decrease in the sugar - making ratio will reduce sugar production by 900,000 tons [17]. - **Inventory and Exports**: Brazil exported 2.2297 million tons of sugar in February, a year - on - year increase of 22%. The average daily export volume was 123,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 36%. As of February in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugar export was 32.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%. As of the end of January, the inventory in the central - southern region of Brazil was 5.7058 million tons, a decrease of 1.3149 million tons compared to the previous half - month report, and an increase of 462,000 tons compared to the same period last year, which is slightly lower than the same period in recent years [22]. - **Thailand's New Sugar - Crushing Season** - The 2025/26 sugar - crushing season's sugar production is expected to be 11 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 960,000 tons). As of December 2025, the cumulative sugar export was 5.5491 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.9%. The export volume has decreased significantly in recent months and has been at a low level compared to the same period in previous years since October. As of February 15, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume was 63.4728 million tons, a decrease of 4.4602 million tons compared to the same period last year, with a decrease of 6.57%. The sugar production was 6.8356 million tons, a decrease of 346,700 tons compared to the same period last year, with a decrease of 4.83%. Green Pool predicts that Thailand's sugar production may decline by 7.5% to 9.9 million tons in the 2026/27 season [25]. - **India's Sugar - Crushing Season** - The Indian Sugar and Bio - energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) predicts that the total sugar production in India in the 2025/26 season will be 32.4 million tons. After deducting 3.1 million tons for ethanol production, the net sugar production will be 29.3 million tons, an increase of about 12% compared to the previous season [27]. - As of February 28, 2026, the sugar production in the 2025/26 season in India reached 24.63 million tons, an increase of 2.65 million tons compared to the same period last year, with an increase of 12.06%. The net export volume in December was 57,200 tons, which is at the lowest level compared to the same period in recent years. The Indian Food Ministry announced that the domestic sugar sales quota in March 2026 is 2.25 million tons, the same as in February and a decrease of 50,000 tons compared to the same period last year [29]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Domestic Sugar Production** - **Guangxi**: As of January 31, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in Guangxi was 33.4306 million tons, a decrease of 3.0971 million tons compared to the same period last year; the production of mixed sugar was 4.029 million tons, a decrease of 788,000 tons compared to the same period last year; the mixed sugar - making rate was 12.05%, a decrease of 1.14 percentage points compared to the same period last year. In January, the single - month sugar production was 2.0871 million tons, an increase of 21,500 tons compared to the same period last year [35]. - **Yunnan**: As of January 31, 2026, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in Yunnan was 8.1447 million tons (compared to 6.7824 million tons in the same period of the previous season), the sugar production was 984,100 tons (compared to 837,100 tons in the same period of the previous season), and the sugar - making rate was 12.08% (compared to 12.34% in the same period of the previous season). In January, the single - month sugar production was 591,800 tons (compared to 510,200 tons in the same period last year) [35]. - **Domestic Sugar Sales and Inventory** - **Guangxi**: As of January 31, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi were 1.5506 million tons, a decrease of 830,300 tons compared to the same period last year; the sales - to - production ratio was 38.49%, a decrease of 10.94 percentage points compared to the same period last year. In January, the single - month sugar sales were 665,800 tons, a decrease of 82,900 tons compared to the same period last year; the industrial inventory was 2.4784 million tons, an increase of 42,300 tons compared to the same period last year [38]. - **Yunnan**: As of January 31, 2026, the cumulative sales of new sugar in Yunnan were 532,000 tons (compared to 452,200 tons in the same period last year), the sales - to - production ratio was 54.06% (compared to 54.03% in the same period last year). In January, the single - month sugar sales were 250,600 tons (compared to 185,100 tons in the same period last year), and the industrial inventory was 452,100 tons (compared to 384,800 tons in the same period last year) [38]. - **Sugar Imports** - In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 188,500 tons compared to the same period last year. In 2025, the cumulative sugar import was 4.9188 million tons, an increase of 562,200 tons compared to the same period last year. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar import was 1.7635 million tons, an increase of 301,700 tons compared to the same period last year [43]. - In December 2025, the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 69,700 tons, a decrease of 120,800 tons compared to the same period last year. In 2025, the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 1.1888 million tons, a decrease of 1.1879 million tons compared to the same period last year. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 299,600 tons, a decrease of 339,500 tons compared to the same period last year [43]. - **Import Profits** - The out - of - quota cost of Brazilian sugar is 4,850 yuan, with a profit of 650 yuan; the out - of - quota cost of Thai sugar is 4,750 yuan, with a profit of over 750 yuan. However, due to the fact that the 2026 sugar import license has not been issued, the sugar import volume is low [46].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current raw sugar price has factored in some expectations of Indian sugar exports and Brazil's next crop season production increase. In the future, the raw sugar price will adjust in the process of continuous expectation adjustment. In the domestic market, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China predicts that the sugar production in the 2025/26 season will be 11.7 million tons, 500,000 tons higher than last month's forecast. The total sugar output slightly exceeds expectations. Currently, 26 sugar mills in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang have all started production, with a total expected output of 1.4 million tons. Five sugar mills in Yunnan have started production, and the old sugar in Guangxi has basically been cleared. The delayed start of production in Guangxi has put some pressure on the spot market, while the lack of intention to reduce the price of processed sugar provides support at the lower end [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar is 5,458 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the main contract position is 359,183 lots, down 11,059 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 8,622, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -52,091 lots; the valid warehouse receipt forecast is 183, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,090 yuan/ton, up 112 yuan; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota is 5,182 yuan/ton, up 146 yuan; the estimated price of imported Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 4,177 yuan/ton, up 112 yuan; the estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,296 yuan/ton, up 146 yuan; the spot price of white sugar in Kunming, Yunnan is 5,630 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the spot price of white sugar in Nanning, Guangxi is 5,760 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of white sugar in Liuzhou, Guangxi is 5,730 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the planting area of sugar cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares; the cumulative sugar production nationwide is 1,457 million tons, down 85 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The cumulative production of cane sugar in Yunnan is 1,116.21 million tons, up 5.49 million tons; the cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi is 241.88 million tons; the total sugar exports from Brazil are 602.29 million tons, up 95.92 million tons; the import volume of sugar in the current month is 55 million tons, down 28 million tons; the cumulative import volume of sugar is 316 million tons, up 55 million tons; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,370 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 365 yuan/ton, down 119 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 251 yuan/ton, down 119 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly production of refined sugar is 53.91 million tons, up 8.5 million tons; the monthly production of soft drinks is 1,591.7 million tons, down 184.1 million tons [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at-the-money call options for sugar is 6.3%, up 1.34%; the implied volatility of at-the-money put options for sugar is 6.3%, up 1.34%; the 20-day historical volatility of sugar is 6.37%, up 0.78%; the 60-day historical volatility of sugar is 6.75%, up 0.16% [2] Industry News - According to the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (Unica), in the second half of October 2025, the central-southern region of Brazil crushed 31.108 million tons of sugarcane, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%; produced 2.068 million tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 16.4%, with a sugar production ratio of 46.02%, higher than 45.91% in the same period last year. As of November 1, 2025, in the 2025/26 sugar season (April 2025 - March 2026), the central-southern region had cumulatively crushed 556 million tons of sugarcane, a year-on-year decrease of 1.97%, and cumulatively produced 38.085 million tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 1.63%. India maintains its sugar export policy for the 2025/26 season. In the 2024/25 sugar season, India exported 800,000 tons of sugar, lower than the initially set export quota of 1 million tons [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose slightly, with a weekly increase of about 0.24%. The price of the ICE US Sugar March contract also rose, with a weekly increase of about 2.12%, while the international raw sugar spot price was 13.93 cents per pound, down 0.21 cents per pound from last week [5][10][18]. - In the 2025/26 season, India maintains its sugar export policy. In the 2024/25 season, India has exported 800,000 tons of sugar, less than the initially set export quota of 1 million tons. The current raw sugar price has factored in some expectations of Indian sugar exports and Brazil's production increase in the next season, and the price will be adjusted as expectations are revised [5]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China predicts that China's sugar production in the 2025/26 season will be 11.7 million tons, an increase of 500,000 tons from last month's forecast, mainly due to a slight increase in the national sugar - crop planting area, good growth of southern sugarcane, and a slight increase in the sugar content of northern sugar beets [5]. - Currently, a total of 26 sugar mills in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang have all started production, with a total expected output of 1.4 million tons. Five sugar mills in Yunnan have started production, and the old - sugar stocks in Guangxi are basically cleared. The delay in the start of production in Guangxi puts some pressure on the spot market, while the processing sugar has little intention to reduce prices, providing support at the lower end [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights - **Market Review**: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose slightly this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.24% [5]. - **Market Outlook**: In the international market, the raw sugar price will adjust as expectations are revised. In the domestic market, sugar production is expected to increase, and the delay in the start of production in Guangxi affects the spot market [5]. - **Future Focus**: Domestic production and sales, and new - season production estimates [6] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The price of the ICE US Sugar March contract rose by about 2.12% this week. The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose by about 0.24%. The net position of the top 20 in the Zhengzhou sugar futures is - 48,324 lots, and the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts is 8,622. The price difference between the Zhengzhou sugar futures 1 - 5 contracts is + 66 yuan/ton, and the spot - Zhengzhou sugar basis is + 290 yuan/ton [10][19][26][30]. - **Spot Market**: As of November 14, the old - sugar stocks are being cleared, and there is no new quotation. The estimated profit of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 1,813 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota is 539 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan/ton from last week. The estimated profit of Thai sugar within the quota is 1,533 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota is 467 yuan/ton, up 77 yuan/ton from last week [37][43]. 3.3. Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side** - **Production**: As of the end of October 2025, the national sugar production in the 2024/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons, or 12.03% [48]. - **Industrial Inventory**: As of August 2025, the domestic sugar industrial inventory was 1.1623 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 450,000 tons or 27.91%, and a year - on - year increase of 60,100 tons or 5.45% [51]. - **Imports**: In September 2025, China's sugar imports were 550,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 27.78% and a month - on - month decrease of 280,000 tons. From January to September 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 3.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.89% [55]. - **Demand Side** - **Sales Rate**: As of the end of October 2025, the sugar mills in the 2024/25 season have all stopped production. The national sugar production in this season was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons, or 12.03% [61]. - **Production of Related Products**: In September 2025, China's monthly production of refined sugar was 539,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.4%. The monthly production of soft drinks was 15.9167 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9% [65]. 3.4. Options and Stock - Related Markets - **Options Market**: Information about the implied volatility of the at - the - money options of sugar this week is provided, but specific data is not described in detail [67]. - **Stock Market**: Information about the price - to - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry is provided, but specific data is not described in detail [72]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balance between long and short trends with poor operability on the current market [1] - Sugar: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Apple: ★★★, representing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Log: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, meaning a bullish drive but poor operability on the market [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish drive but poor operability on the market [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish drive but poor operability on the market [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, natural rubber, pulp, log, etc., and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, price trends, and macro - economic factors [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose today. Spot cotton prices were stable, and the Xinjiang cotton purchase price was slightly stronger, raising new cotton costs. As of October 26, the national cumulative cotton inspection volume was 135.55 million tons. The peak season was weak, with insufficient new orders for cotton yarn spinning enterprises. Zhengzhou cotton's short - term rise was a rebound with limited space. It's recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. Brazil's sugar production will remain high. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand are about to start squeezing, with expected increased production. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar was relatively strong, with potential syrup import control. The market focused on the next season's output estimate. Sugar prices are expected to remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price was strong. High - quality apples' prices were stable, while low - quality ones were weak. High - quality apples were in short supply, and low - quality ones had inventory pressure. The market focused on cold - storage inventory. National apple bagging volume decreased slightly year - on - year, and production might be adjusted down. New - season cold - storage initial inventory might be higher than expected. It's recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Stimulated by the news of Sino - US leaders' meeting, RU&NR fluctuated up, and BR first declined then rose. Global natural rubber supply was in the high - yield period. Last week, domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate rose slightly. Tire operating rate recovered slightly, and product inventory increased. Qingdao's natural rubber inventory decreased, while butadiene rubber social inventory increased. The strategy is to bet on a rebound and focus on cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [5] Pulp - Pulp futures rose slightly today. As of October 23, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 2.055 billion tons, a decrease of 190,000 tons from the previous period. In September, domestic pulp imports increased year - on - year. Supply was relatively loose, and demand was average. It's recommended to wait and see or do short - term operations [6] Log - The futures price was weak. Spot prices were stable. In October, New Zealand radiata pine quotes increased. Domestic importers' willingness declined. Port outbound volume was over 60,000 cubic meters, and inventory was low. Low inventory supported prices. It's recommended to wait and see [7]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The sugar market is expected to mainly experience range-bound oscillations [1] 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - The raw sugar price is 16.52 cents per pound, with a year-on-year increase of 0.05 cents; the mainstream spot price is 5,940 yuan per ton, unchanged year-on-year; the futures main contract price is 5,540 yuan per ton, a year-on-year decrease of 16 yuan [1] - The 91 spread is 0 yuan per ton, a year-on-year increase of 26 yuan; the 15 spread is 23 yuan per ton, a year-on-year decrease of 9 yuan; the mainstream spot basis is 400 yuan per ton, a year-on-year increase of 16 yuan [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - High-frequency information reveals that India's monsoon precipitation has strengthened again, and Brazil's exports have declined, raising concerns about global consumption. Brazil exported 3.74 million tons in August, a 5% year-on-year decrease, and 3.59 million tons in July, also a 5% year-on-year decrease [1] - Conab has lowered the forecast for Brazil's sugar production in the 25/26 season to 44.5 million tons, down from the previous estimate of 45.9 million tons [1] - China imported 740,000 tons of sugar in July, an increase of 320,000 tons [1] 3.3 Domestic Market - CAOC predicts that China's sugar production in the 24/25 season will be 11.16 million tons, consumption will be 15.8 million tons, and imports will be 5 million tons. For the 25/26 season, production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons, and imports 5 million tons [2] - As of the end of May in the 24/25 season, China produced 11.16 million tons of sugar, an increase of 1.2 million tons, and sold 8.11 million tons, an increase of 1.52 million tons. The cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.7% [2] - As of the end of July in the 24/25 season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 3.24 million tons, a decrease of 340,000 tons [2] - In the 25/26 season, the market anticipates a decline in the sugar yield rate and an increase in production costs in Guangxi [2] 3.4 International Market - ISO's initial forecast indicates a global sugar supply shortage of 230,000 tons in the 25/26 season and 4.88 million tons in the 24/25 season [3] - As of August 16 in the 25/26 season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in Brazil's central-southern region decreased by 6.6 percentage points year-on-year, with cumulative sugar production at 22.89 million tons, a decrease of 1.12 million tons. The cumulative MIX was 52.51%, a year-on-year increase of 3.37 percentage points [3] - ISMA/NFCSF predicts that India's total sugar production in the 25/26 season will be 34.9 million tons, up from 29.5 million tons in the 24/25 season, an increase of 5.4 million tons [3] - Thailand's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 10.08 million tons, an increase of 1.27 million tons [3] 3.5 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of sugar is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4]