高盛首席中国经济学家闪辉降中国2026与2027年GDP预期分别从4.3%和4.0%上调至4.8%与4.7%（2019年以来最大幅度的预期上调），理由是出口韧性强、中美贸易紧张局势缓和以及“十五五”规划带来的政策动力增强。闪辉表示，此次习特会表明，中国现在在贸易谈判中拥有了重要的筹码，尤其是在控制稀土出口方面，美国可能更难进一步加征关税。高盛还援引了中国近期召开的四中全会和“十五五”规划的成果，这些成果强调技术自主和产业竞争力。政策制定者旨在加大对高科技制造业和创新的投入，以此作为经济增长的驱动力，取代对房地产和基础设施的依赖。尽管这一战略可能迅速提振出口和企业利润，但闪辉警告称，提振家庭消费可能需要更长时间。高盛还指出，AI崛起有望在未来十年内将中国的长期增长潜力提升高达8%，从而有助于抵消人口结构和结构性不利因素。 ...

Core Insights - Small-cap stocks have continued to outperform this year, with the CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF (159552) leading its peers with a remarkable performance exceeding 50% [1] - On August 21, the CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF saw a net inflow of over 800 million, bringing its year-to-date net inflow to over 1.1 billion, both figures leading the market [1] - Goldman Sachs reported that only 22% of household financial assets are allocated to funds and stocks, indicating a potential inflow of over 10 trillion yuan into the market, particularly benefiting small-cap stocks [1] Performance Summary - The CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF (159552) recorded a net inflow of 0.85 billion on August 21 and a year-to-date net inflow of 11.54 billion, with a year-to-date return of 53.97% and an excess return of 21.75% [2] - Other ETFs in the CSI 2000 category showed varied performance, with some experiencing negative year-to-date returns, highlighting the strong position of the CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF [2]