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可转债周报:转债市场小幅承压,防御性板块占优-20250619
Changjiang Securities· 2025-06-19 08:41
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - During the week from June 9 to June 14, 2025, the A - share market continued to fluctuate, with major stock indices generally pulling back. The convertible bond market showed differentiation, with the average daily trading volume rising to 69.61 billion yuan. The market style gradually shifted from theme preference to defensive low - valuation. It is recommended to balance the layout of low - valuation pro - cyclical directions and high - rating large - cap convertible bonds and pay attention to phased opportunities in structural rotation [2][6]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Theme Weekly Review Equity Theme Weekly Review - The A - share market continued the theme rotation. Resource and pharmaceutical sectors were active. The rare earth permanent magnet index led the rise with a 12.5% increase. The pharmaceutical sector also performed well. However, the technology track was under pressure, with many technology - related indices falling by more than 2%. The short - term capital style switched from technology themes to resource and pharmaceutical sectors [14]. Convertible Bond Weekly Review - The convertible bond market was slightly under pressure, with trading activity continuing to pick up. The ChinaBond Convertible Bond Index fell slightly by 0.02%. Large - cap convertible bonds were more stable. The valuation of low - price convertible bonds was repaired, while that of high - price areas was under pressure. In the primary market, 6 listed companies updated their convertible bond issuance plans, and clause games were active. It is recommended to focus on medium - and low - price individual bonds with underlying stock catalysts and valuation repair space, and also consider high - rating large - cap convertible bonds [17][18]. Weekly Market Tracking Capital Shifts to Pro - cyclical, Structural Market Continues and Trading Heat Differs - Major A - share stock indices pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index fell by 0.7%, 1.2%, and 0.8% respectively. The market turnover increased, but the main funds had a net outflow of 1.77 billion yuan per day on average. Pro - cyclical sectors such as non - ferrous metals and petroleum and petrochemicals led the rise, while TMT and consumer sectors pulled back. It is recommended to pay attention to the rotation and repair opportunities of low - valuation sectors and beware of the valuation pull - back risk of high - level sectors [10]. Convertible Bond Market Narrowly Pulls Back, Defensive Sectors Strengthen - The convertible bond market was in shock consolidation. The average daily trading volume rose to 69.61 billion yuan. Capital preferred large - cap high - rating targets. In terms of valuation, low - price convertible bonds were repaired, and high - price areas were under pressure. In the industry, defensive sectors such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and non - ferrous metals performed strongly. It is recommended to focus on medium - and low - price individual bonds supported by fundamentals [10]. Primary Market Tracking and Clause Games - In the primary market of convertible bonds, there was no new bond listing, only Luwei Convertible Bond entered the application stage. Six listed companies updated their convertible bond plans. In terms of clause games, 12 convertible bonds were expected to trigger downward revisions, 7 announced no downward revisions, and 1 proposed a downward revision. In terms of redemptions, 3 announced expected trigger of strong redemptions, 2 announced early redemptions, and 3 clearly stated no redemptions [10]. Weekly Market Outlook - The A - share market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. Pro - cyclical directions may have relatively advantageous opportunities, and TMT and consumer sectors may attract low - buying funds after the pull - back. For convertible bonds, the activity is stable at a high level, and the market preference shifts to large - cap high - rating targets and theme - game resonance varieties. It is recommended to balance the layout of medium - and high - price convertible bonds with reasonable valuations and medium - and low - price individual bonds with safety margins and elasticity repair space [19]. Convertible Bond Allocation Suggestions - Prioritize the layout of large - cap high - rating convertible bonds with high valuation safety margins and stable coupon structures. Moderately participate in the game opportunities of medium - and low - price, high - elasticity individual bonds, especially those in the consumer and pro - cyclical directions. Control positions, select varieties with short remaining terms and high trading activity to improve liquidity [8].
固定收益深度报告:高评级转债性价比分析
Huaxin Securities· 2025-05-19 09:33
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertibles market has low trading enthusiasm due to the high - quality development of public funds and the lack of sustainability in the small - cap growth market. High - rating convertibles are scarce in terms of quantity and may become even more so with the potential delisting of some large - scale convertibles. Their valuations are low, and they are more cost - effective in the current market environment. In the short term, the stock - bond ratio favors bonds in the contraction cycle, and the convertibles position is reduced to 70%, with an 8:2 ratio of low - price (pure - bond substitute) to double - low convertibles, all being value - type targets [2][3][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Recent Convertibles Market Review - After May Day, the pessimistic fundamental expectations were partially repaired. The overall trading activity of convertibles was low, with the average daily turnover remaining stable at 58.1 billion yuan compared to before May Day. The median convertible price was around 120 yuan, and the conversion premium rate and implied volatility were slightly adjusted. The bank - sector convertibles followed the rise of the underlying stocks but with a smaller increase. The market risk preference was low, and investors preferred the debt - hedging attribute of convertibles [12][13] 2. High - Rating Convertibles Cost - Effectiveness Analysis 2.1 Convertibles Market Alternative High - Quality Assets Are Scarce - AAA and AA+ level convertibles account for 7% and 9% of the whole market respectively, mainly in industries such as banking, non - banking, etc. Since the second half of 2023, the proportion of AAA and AA+ level convertibles has been decreasing, but their non - converted balance accounts for about 70% of the whole market. The delisting of Nanyin, Hangyin, and Pufa convertibles will significantly increase the scarcity of high - rating convertibles, and high - rating convertibles generally have a short remaining term [20][21] 2.2 High - Rating Convertibles Valuations Are Continuously Low - From the perspective of the conversion premium rate, the valuation of high - rating convertibles is low. Since the fourth quarter of 2024, although small - cap growth convertibles have had periodic market conditions, the conversion premium rate of AAA - level convertibles remains at a relatively low level. The reasons may be that funds prefer elastic varieties, and the shrinking scale of AAA - level convertibles supports the price and suppresses the valuation expansion [23][25] 2.3 Convertibles Market Credit Risk Concerns Have Not Returned to the Level Before 2024 - In 2024, the new "Nine - National - Articles" delisting rule strengthened the transmission of the underlying stock delisting risk to the convertibles market, and the market re - evaluated the credit risk of medium - and low - rating convertibles. In 2025, market concerns about credit risk have not subsided. The pure - bond premium rate repair is small, and the pure - bond premium rate of near - maturity convertibles is still negative. The credit qualification differentiation is intensified, and the credit spread of medium - and low - rating convertibles is at a historical high, while that of AAA - level convertibles is at a historical low. June is the peak period for convertibles rating adjustment, which may further suppress the risk preference for small - cap convertibles [30][31] 2.4 High - Rating Convertibles Are More Cost - Effective - In recent years, interest rate cuts aim to avoid systemic liquidity crises. The latest monetary policy report is beneficial to alleviating the pressure on the bank's liability side. In the context of low interest rates and asset shortage, high - rating convertibles are the core configuration of fixed - income +, and the supply contraction supports the valuation. With the approaching of the convertibles rating adjustment period, high - rating and stable convertibles are superior, and the positions of social security and insurance funds are also biased towards high - rating convertibles [33] 3. Asset Allocation Viewpoint - In the short term, according to the top - down view, the stock - bond ratio favors bonds in the contraction cycle. The trading value of both stocks and bonds is currently limited, and the convertibles position is reduced to 70%. The ratio of low - price (pure - bond substitute) to double - low convertibles is 8:2, all being value - type targets. The report also shows the convertibles broad - based portfolio [6][37]