Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Economic Growth Target**: China's economic growth target for 2025 is maintained at 5%, with a growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year. The fiscal easing policy will continue in the second half, but the impact on nominal GDP and PPI may be limited due to moderate demand-side policies [1][3][4]. - **Real Estate Market**: The real estate market is showing signs of weakness, with significant inventory pressure despite some recovery in transaction volumes in core cities. The need to stabilize buyer expectations and improve product quality is emphasized [2][38][39]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Trade Relations**: The U.S.-China trade negotiations have been postponed, with a slightly hawkish stance from the U.S. The introduction of secondary tariffs on imported goose oil has caused market fluctuations, indicating ongoing sensitivity to trade tensions [1][6]. - **Policy Outlook**: The political bureau meeting expressed optimism about the economic situation, emphasizing policy coherence and stability. Incremental policies may become evident in Q4, focusing on improving fund efficiency [1][12][19]. - **Demand-Side Policies**: Demand-side policies are present but are less systematic compared to supply-side reforms. The impact on PPI and GDP is expected to be moderate [5][7][14]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Capital Market Sentiment**: The capital market is expected to be more attractive and inclusive, with potential adjustments in IPO thresholds and margin trading data. Structural opportunities are highlighted despite a lack of clear performance drivers [1][23][28]. - **Real Estate Challenges**: The real estate market faces challenges such as high inventory levels and declining prices, with a significant inventory of nearly 500 million square meters in 80 key cities, leading to a de-stocking cycle of about 28 months [39][40]. - **Future Planning**: The upcoming five-year plan will dominate macroeconomic policy, focusing on high-level security and quality development, with energy, electricity, national security, and technological independence as key indicators [1][19]. Sector-Specific Insights - **Real Estate**: The market is stabilizing, but the pressure from inventory remains high. Core cities are showing some recovery, but overall, the market needs to address buyer confidence and product quality [38][41][42]. - **Consumer Sector**: The consumer sector is expected to recover faster than real estate, with policies aimed at enhancing service consumption. The focus is on stable ROE and dividend yields in consumer and financial sectors [32][36]. - **Technology Sector**: The technology sector remains crucial, with strong support policies and potential for growth in areas like AI and cloud computing. The sector is seen as undervalued compared to global peers [31][37]. Conclusion The conference call highlights a cautious yet optimistic outlook for the Chinese economy, with specific attention to the real estate market's challenges and the potential for recovery in consumer and technology sectors. The emphasis on policy stability and structural opportunities in the capital market suggests a strategic approach to navigating the current economic landscape.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious investment stance on the consumer sector, particularly highlighting concerns over inflation and the impact of tariffs on low-priced consumer goods and durable imports [4]. Core Insights - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. rebounded to 61.8 in July, indicating a slight recovery in consumer sentiment, although it remains significantly lower than historical averages [6][9]. - Retail sales data for June showed a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, reaching $720.11 billion, driven by pre-tariff purchasing behavior [6][9]. - Inflationary pressures are evident, with the June CPI rising to 2.7%, primarily due to increased energy prices and the initial effects of tariffs on imported goods [9][12]. - Employment data showed a strong increase in non-farm payrolls, with 147,000 jobs added in June, although the growth was largely driven by government sectors, while the private sector showed signs of weakness [14][16]. Summary by Sections Macro Overview - Consumer confidence index increased to 61.8 in July, reflecting a two-month rebound [6]. - Retail sales for June reached $720.11 billion, up 3.9% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [6][9]. - Inflation rose to 2.7% in June, with energy prices being a significant contributor [9]. - Non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs in June, with a decline in the unemployment rate to 4.1% [14]. Essential Consumption - Beverage sales showed robust growth, with a 5.2% year-on-year increase in May, while tobacco sales slowed down [2][28]. - Alcohol sales in May were $6.31 billion, reflecting a modest growth of 0.8% year-on-year, but overall sales volume continues to decline [2][24]. - Dairy product shipments totaled $13.49 billion in May, with a year-on-year increase of 1.1% [28]. Optional Consumption - Restaurant sales in June reached $98.74 billion, up 6.6% year-on-year, indicating strong consumer spending in this segment [3][32]. - Department store sales were $77.25 billion in June, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [3][34]. - Clothing retail sales in June were $26.34 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [3][36]. Market Performance - The optional consumption sector outperformed, with a 5.6% increase, while essential consumption saw a decline of 1.5% [4]. - The consumer sector remains under pressure from high valuations and inflationary concerns, particularly affecting low-priced consumer goods [4]. Employment and Credit - The labor market showed mixed signals, with strong overall job growth but significant weakness in the private sector [14][16]. - Consumer credit saw a sharp decline in May, with a 70% drop in growth compared to April, indicating a potential slowdown in consumer spending [20]. PMI and Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for June was 49.0, indicating continued contraction, while the services PMI returned to expansion at 50.8 [22][23].

Core Viewpoint - In June, 10 funds managed by Han Weijun under China Merchants Jinling Fund experienced declines, with 8 funds dropping over 3%, reflecting the struggles of the consumer sector [1][3]. Fund Performance - The worst-performing fund, China Merchants Quality Growth Mixed Fund A, fell by 4.68% in June, while the C share dropped by 4.62% [1][2]. - The cumulative returns for the A and C shares since inception are down 27.15% and 29.41%, with net values at 0.7285 yuan and 0.7059 yuan respectively as of July 1, 2025 [2]. Sector Focus - All 8 declining funds are actively managed equity funds with a heavy focus on the consumer sector, particularly in food and beverage, which has been a major declining sector this year [1][3]. - The top ten holdings of the funds include major brands like Kweichow Moutai, Yanjing Beer, and Eastroc Beverage, indicating a concentrated investment strategy in consumer staples [1]. Historical Performance - From 2022 to the present, all 8 funds have reported negative annual returns, highlighting the ongoing downturn in the consumer sector [3]. - The China Merchants Domestic Demand Growth Mixed Fund, established in December 2020, has the lowest cumulative net value among the funds at 0.6613 yuan, with a cumulative return decline of 33.87% [2]. Manager Background - Han Weijun has extensive experience in the investment field, having worked in various roles from research analyst to fund manager since joining China Merchants Jinling Fund in 2013 [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - During the week from June 9 to June 14, 2025, the A - share market continued to fluctuate, with major stock indices generally pulling back. The convertible bond market showed differentiation, with the average daily trading volume rising to 69.61 billion yuan. The market style gradually shifted from theme preference to defensive low - valuation. It is recommended to balance the layout of low - valuation pro - cyclical directions and high - rating large - cap convertible bonds and pay attention to phased opportunities in structural rotation [2][6]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Theme Weekly Review Equity Theme Weekly Review - The A - share market continued the theme rotation. Resource and pharmaceutical sectors were active. The rare earth permanent magnet index led the rise with a 12.5% increase. The pharmaceutical sector also performed well. However, the technology track was under pressure, with many technology - related indices falling by more than 2%. The short - term capital style switched from technology themes to resource and pharmaceutical sectors [14]. Convertible Bond Weekly Review - The convertible bond market was slightly under pressure, with trading activity continuing to pick up. The ChinaBond Convertible Bond Index fell slightly by 0.02%. Large - cap convertible bonds were more stable. The valuation of low - price convertible bonds was repaired, while that of high - price areas was under pressure. In the primary market, 6 listed companies updated their convertible bond issuance plans, and clause games were active. It is recommended to focus on medium - and low - price individual bonds with underlying stock catalysts and valuation repair space, and also consider high - rating large - cap convertible bonds [17][18]. Weekly Market Tracking Capital Shifts to Pro - cyclical, Structural Market Continues and Trading Heat Differs - Major A - share stock indices pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index fell by 0.7%, 1.2%, and 0.8% respectively. The market turnover increased, but the main funds had a net outflow of 1.77 billion yuan per day on average. Pro - cyclical sectors such as non - ferrous metals and petroleum and petrochemicals led the rise, while TMT and consumer sectors pulled back. It is recommended to pay attention to the rotation and repair opportunities of low - valuation sectors and beware of the valuation pull - back risk of high - level sectors [10]. Convertible Bond Market Narrowly Pulls Back, Defensive Sectors Strengthen - The convertible bond market was in shock consolidation. The average daily trading volume rose to 69.61 billion yuan. Capital preferred large - cap high - rating targets. In terms of valuation, low - price convertible bonds were repaired, and high - price areas were under pressure. In the industry, defensive sectors such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and non - ferrous metals performed strongly. It is recommended to focus on medium - and low - price individual bonds supported by fundamentals [10]. Primary Market Tracking and Clause Games - In the primary market of convertible bonds, there was no new bond listing, only Luwei Convertible Bond entered the application stage. Six listed companies updated their convertible bond plans. In terms of clause games, 12 convertible bonds were expected to trigger downward revisions, 7 announced no downward revisions, and 1 proposed a downward revision. In terms of redemptions, 3 announced expected trigger of strong redemptions, 2 announced early redemptions, and 3 clearly stated no redemptions [10]. Weekly Market Outlook - The A - share market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. Pro - cyclical directions may have relatively advantageous opportunities, and TMT and consumer sectors may attract low - buying funds after the pull - back. For convertible bonds, the activity is stable at a high level, and the market preference shifts to large - cap high - rating targets and theme - game resonance varieties. It is recommended to balance the layout of medium - and high - price convertible bonds with reasonable valuations and medium - and low - price individual bonds with safety margins and elasticity repair space [19]. Convertible Bond Allocation Suggestions - Prioritize the layout of large - cap high - rating convertible bonds with high valuation safety margins and stable coupon structures. Moderately participate in the game opportunities of medium - and low - price, high - elasticity individual bonds, especially those in the consumer and pro - cyclical directions. Control positions, select varieties with short remaining terms and high trading activity to improve liquidity [8].

Summary of Conference Call Minutes Industry or Company Involved - Focus on the global market impact of the "reciprocal tariff" policy Core Points and Arguments - The recent tariff reduction from 145% to 10% exceeded expectations, alleviating short-term market concerns, but medium to long-term risks related to trade restrictions need monitoring, particularly around key dates in July and August [1][2] - The U.S. effective tax rate has decreased to 16-17%, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [2] - The performance of U.S. stocks, particularly in the tech sector, has rebounded quickly, suggesting that previous recession fears may have been overstated [4] - The current market is characterized by limited upward momentum and constrained downside potential, indicating a state of indecision [2] - The liquidity shock is viewed as an occasional event that presents buying opportunities, with central bank interventions typically proving effective [4] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The recommendation to focus on sectors with strong end-demand and technology innovation, while also capitalizing on short-term trading opportunities in Hong Kong stocks [1] - The expectation that the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate will decline to 3.5-4% by year-end, with the Federal Reserve potentially lowering rates 1-2 times in Q4 [4] - The suggestion to wait for U.S. Treasury yields to rise to 4.8-5% before making long positions, as the current yield of 4.5% is deemed unattractive [5][8] - The impact of tariff adjustments on China's market is projected to reduce GDP influence from 3% to 1-1.5%, with Hong Kong's earnings being less affected than A-shares [7][9] - Recommendations for gold investment strategies include dollar-cost averaging or grid trading, given the high levels of market congestion [6][9]

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 05 月 20 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：微盘股指数创新高 | [Table_Title2] | | --- | 复盘与思考: 5 月 20 日，LPR 调降 10bp 正式落地，股市情绪受此提振而延续上涨，其中消费品种领涨；债市交易利多 出尽，各期限国债收益率普遍上行。 复盘各类资产表现，股市，延续小幅上涨态势，上证指数上涨 0.38%，中证红利、沪深 300 分别上涨 0.29%、0.54%；科创 50、创业板指上涨 0.24%、0.77%；小微盘持续跑出超额收益，中证 2000、万得微盘股 指分别上涨 0.84%、1.76%。债市，10 年、30 年国债活跃券收益率分别上行 1.1bp、1.3bp 至 1.67%、1.90%， 10 年、30 年国债期货主力合约分别微涨 0.03%、微跌 0.03%。 商品市场方面，5 月 16日起美元指数走弱，黄金表现相应回暖，伦敦金、纽约金微幅上涨，价格在 3230- 3240 美元/盎司之间震荡，沪金日盘上涨 0.48%，而沪银下跌 0.21%。国内其他商品方面，工业金属、黑色 ...

Core Insights - The competition among actively managed equity funds is intense as the half-year performance deadline approaches, with significant fluctuations in rankings among fund managers [1][2]. Fund Performance Summary - As of May 19, the top three actively managed equity funds by year-to-date returns are: - 华夏北交所精选两年定开混合发起式 with a return of 73.01% [2][4] - 中信建投北交所精选两年定开混合A with a return of 69.43% [2][4] - 鹏华碳中和主题混合A with a return of 63.09% [2][4] Market Trends - The top-performing funds include two focused on the North Exchange theme and one heavily invested in the robotics sector, indicating a strong market interest in these areas [3][5]. - The year-to-date performance rankings show that four of the top ten funds are North Exchange theme funds, highlighting their popularity [4]. Sector Focus - Several top-performing funds are heavily invested in the robotics sector, with notable holdings in companies like 中大力德 [5]. - Additionally, two funds with significant investments in consumer stocks have also made it to the top ten, showcasing a diverse investment strategy among successful funds [5][7].

Group 1: A-Share Market Performance - The A-share market saw significant increases in aerospace, military, and communication sectors after the May Day holiday, with multiple ETFs in these themes rising over 5% [1] - The ChiNext index experienced a rebound, with the ChiNext 50 and ChiNext index rising over 4% and 3% respectively [1] Group 2: Fund Flows in ETFs - The total net inflow into ETFs tracking the Sci-Tech sector exceeded 4 billion yuan, with the Huaxia SSE Sci-Tech 50 ETF leading with over 1.8 billion yuan in net inflow [2][3] - Conversely, ETFs tracking the CSI 300 experienced significant outflows, totaling over 5.7 billion yuan [3] Group 3: Bond ETFs Growth - Bond ETFs have seen explosive growth this year, with a total net inflow of nearly 50 billion yuan as of May 9, and the total scale surpassing 250 billion yuan, an increase of over 70 billion yuan compared to the end of last year [4] - Institutional investors, particularly insurance institutions, are the primary holders of bond ETFs, with their share exceeding 35% [4] Group 4: Changes in ChiNext Index - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange will revise the ChiNext index compilation scheme, introducing an ESG negative exclusion mechanism and setting a weight adjustment factor to limit individual stock weights to no more than 20% during periodic adjustments, effective June 16 [2]

作 者丨特约记者庞华玮 编 辑丨巫燕玲 此外，4月7日晚间， 宁德时代 公告，公司拟使用不低于4 0亿元且不超过 8 0亿元 自有或自筹 资金以集中竞价交易方式回购部分股份，并在未来适宜时机用于股权激励计划或员工持股计 划。 4月7日晚， 中国电科 发布公告称，基于对我国经济长期向好的坚定信心，积极履行对资本市 场承诺， 已完成增持回购旗下上市公司股票超过2 0亿元。 4月7日，清明假期后第一个交易日，亚太股市跟跌，日经2 2 5指数和韩国综合指数均一度触发 熔断。A股三大指数也集体回调。市场全天成交额约1 . 6 2万亿元，较上一交易日增加0 . 4 6万亿 元。 对此，中信证券政策研究首席分析师于翔认为， A股的调整更多是受到海外悲观情绪的带 动 ，实际上并没有那么悲观。 美国的宽松政策可能在今年年底到明年上半年出现，与中国宽松 周期重叠。其认为，当前的调整是一个布局的时间点。尽管避险情绪仍然存在，但从股票投资 的角度来看，估值是核心因素，他建议投资者关注股票资产配置。 此前， 中央汇金、中国诚通、中国国新 先后发布公告称出手增持中国股票资产，坚决维护资 本市场平稳运行，并表示坚决当好长期资本、耐心资本、 ...