Consumption - Domestic demand is recovering, with service consumption potential being significant, as evidenced by high visitor numbers at Shanghai Disneyland and ongoing winter tourism demand in Hainan[3] - Automotive sales show a slight decline, with retail and wholesale volumes at near-average levels for recent years[6] - Food and beverage prices are rising due to pre-holiday stocking, with agricultural product wholesale prices reaching recent highs[6] Investment - Real estate sales are showing marginal improvement, with new home transaction area declines narrowing from 33.7% to 23.4% year-on-year[18] - Infrastructure investment is supported by improved fiscal spending, although November's spending remains below last year's levels[18] - Land transaction area has seasonally increased, but the land premium rate has dropped to 1.8%, indicating ongoing price competition[18] Trade and Export - Port operations are showing marginal improvement, with an increase in the number of outbound vessels compared to the previous week[24] - Domestic export freight rates have risen by 0.6%, with Ningbo and Shanghai seeing increases of 3.2% and 3.1% respectively[24] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has dropped by 12.9% due to excess shipping capacity and seasonal factors affecting international trade[24] Production - Production rates are showing divergence across sectors, with high operating rates in formaldehyde and lithium iron phosphate, while polyester and lithium battery demand support production[26] - Steel and photovoltaic industries are experiencing mixed performance, with upstream and downstream sectors showing different trends[26] Prices and Inflation - Industrial product prices are declining, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing structural differentiation in price movements across categories[42] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) continues to decline, with coal prices dropping and Brent oil prices also decreasing, reflecting weak winter demand[42] Liquidity - The Renminbi continues to strengthen, with the exchange rate against the US dollar improving from 7.0554 to 7.0410[46] - The 10-year government bond yield has decreased by 0.9 basis points to 1.83%[47]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the year-on-year decline in new home sales narrowed. The new home sales in second-tier cities formed a support, with Hangzhou's performance being outstanding, possibly affected by discounted sales and concentrated supply. The new home sales in second-tier cities were stronger than the same period last year, while those in first, third, and fourth-tier cities were still significantly weaker [3]. - Most commodity prices and production start rates declined. The investment and production situation was relatively stable during the off - season, and attention should be paid to the implementation of previous policies [3]. - Metro ridership and domestic flights remained at a high level, indicating strong consumer mobility. However, movie box - office sales were below the seasonal level [3]. - Pork, vegetable, and oil prices declined. The decline in vegetable prices was due to the recovery of supply after the temperature rose, and the decline in oil prices was due to the potential return of Russian oil and the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [3]. - This week, SCFI declined while BDI increased. The US government shutdown led to a significant drop in freight rates on the North American route [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Real Estate Sales: New Home Sales in Second - Tier Cities Turned Positive Year - on - Year - From November 14th to November 20th, the new home sales area in 20 cities tracked by Wind increased by 23.78% week - on - week and decreased by 15.85% year - on - year. The new home sales in first - tier cities were weaker than the previous period, while those in second, third, and fourth - tier cities were significantly stronger. Second - tier cities' new home sales were stronger than the same period last year, while first, third, and fourth - tier cities' sales were still significantly weaker [3][8]. - In terms of key cities, most key cities' new home sales increased week - on - week, except for Shanghai (-17.62%) and Shenzhen (-7.54%). Hangzhou had a significant increase of 101.87%. Year - on - year, except for Hangzhou (105.64%), new home sales in other key cities were significantly weaker than last year [8]. - Second - hand home sales decreased week - on - week and the year - on - year decline narrowed. Among key cities, except for Hangzhou (1.42%), second - hand home sales in other key cities were slightly weaker than the previous period. Year - on - year, second - hand home sales in all key cities decreased significantly [8]. 2. Investment: Most Commodity Prices Declined - Most commodity prices declined this week. The price of rebar increased slightly due to stable demand, supply contraction, and inventory decline. The price of asphalt decreased slightly as the cost support weakened with the decline of crude oil, and supply increased during the off - season. The cement price decreased slightly because rainy weather inhibited construction and demand was weak. The glass futures price declined due to stable supply, weak demand, and high inventory pressure [3][34]. 3. Production: Most Start Rates Declined - Most production start rates declined this week. The start rates of petroleum asphalt, automobile tires, and PTA decreased. The blast furnace start rate of steel mills decreased slightly, the start rate of coking enterprises increased, and the start rate of polyester filament increased slightly [3][42]. 4. Consumption: Strong Mobility - Consumer mobility was strong. Metro ridership, domestic flights, and automobile consumption were above the seasonal level, while movie box - office sales were below the seasonal level [3][50]. 5. Export: SCFI Declined, BDI Increased - This week, the SCFI index declined, the BDI index increased, the port throughput decreased, and the CRB spot index declined slightly. The US government shutdown led to weak transportation demand and a significant drop in freight rates on the North American route [3][57]. 6. Prices: Pork, Vegetable, and Oil Prices Declined - This week, pork, vegetable, and oil prices declined. Vegetable prices decreased slightly as the supply recovered with the temperature rise and vegetables from multiple production areas were concentrated on the market. The decline in oil prices was due to the potential return of Russian oil and the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The rebar price increased slightly [3][61].

Group 1 - The overall economic operation remains stable, with a temporary pause in the impact of holidays and tariffs [1] - Post-holiday consumption of goods and services has seen a decline, while investment in infrastructure is slowing down and real estate is under pressure, although construction progress is marginally accelerating [1] - Port operations are returning to normal, with a short-term increase in freight rates followed by a relief in tight shipping capacity [1] Group 2 - Production indicators in industries such as coal, electricity, steel, and automobiles have shown a year-on-year decline [1] - There is a continuous reduction in coal inventory, while the PTA industry chain exhibits a divergence in inventory levels between upstream and downstream [1] - Consumer prices for most goods have risen, while most industrial products have decreased in price, with only slight increases in crude oil and construction-related materials like asphalt and copper [1] Group 3 - After the month-end, liquidity conditions have improved with a decline in funding rates, and the renminbi has appreciated [1]