研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 鸡蛋产业日报 2025-12-22 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,元/500千 | 2888 | 2 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | -49587 | 2623 | | 期货市场 | 克) 鸡蛋期货月间价差(5-9):(日,元/500千克) | -512 | -34 期货持仓量(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,手) | 186319 | -1370 | | | 注册仓单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | 0 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 鸡蛋现货价格(日,元/斤) | 3.06 | -0.06 基差(现货-期货)(日,元/500千克) | 167 | -67 | | 上游情况 | 产蛋鸡存栏指数:全国(月,2015=100) | 114.24 | -1.02 淘汰产蛋鸡指数:全国(月,2015=100) | 114.44 | -10.19 | ...

Core Insights - The egg price is continuously declining, leading the egg-laying industry into a loss situation, despite an increase in the enthusiasm for replenishing stock among producers [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, the egg market is experiencing a downturn, with producers facing losses, yet the sales of commercial layer chicks increased by 20% year-on-year from January to April [1] - The cash flow cost for egg-laying operations in Hebei is between 2.6 to 2.7 yuan per jin, with prices dropping below this cost since early June, indicating a critical cash flow loss situation [2] - The market sentiment is pessimistic regarding short-term price increases due to high production capacity, with many producers and traders planning to stockpile eggs at low prices in anticipation of a price recovery before the Mid-Autumn Festival [3] Group 2: Production Challenges - The industry is facing a cash flow loss threshold, with daily losses of approximately 500 yuan for every 10,000 hens, highlighting the financial strain on producers [2] - There is a notable increase in the rate of old hen culling, but the overall resilience of producers is evident, as many are opting for molting strategies instead of panic culling [2] - The market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with small-sized eggs being oversupplied and facing sales pressure, while larger eggs are in short supply [3] Group 3: Health Issues - The prevalence of chicken diseases has increased, with infection rates in some areas reaching 30%, leading to a significant drop in egg production rates among affected flocks [4] - The market price for non-productive chickens has decreased from approximately 5 yuan per jin last year to 3.6 yuan per jin, exacerbating the financial pressures on producers [4]