鸡蛋产业日报 2026-02-26 价略有回落，短期或维持震荡，短线参与为主。 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,元/500千 | 3239 | -29 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | 3448 | 3062 | | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | 克) 鸡蛋期货月间价差(5-9):(日,元/500千克) | -387 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. The short - term near - month contracts may be in a wide - range oscillation state, and one can try to go long on the far - month contracts with a light position [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The futures closing price (active contract) of eggs is 2888 yuan/500 kilograms, with a环比 increase of 2 yuan [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of eggs is - 49587 lots, with a环比 increase of 2623 lots [2] - The monthly spread (5 - 9) of the egg futures is - 512 yuan/500 kilograms, with a环比 decrease of 34 yuan [2] - The futures trading volume (active contract) of eggs is 186319 lots, with a环比 decrease of 1370 lots [2] - The registered warehouse receipt volume of eggs is 0 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 3.06 yuan/jin, with a环比 decrease of 0.06 yuan [2] - The basis (spot - futures) is 167 yuan/500 kilograms, with a环比 decrease of 67 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The laying hen inventory index nationwide is 114.24 (2015 = 100), with a环比 decrease of 1.02 [2] - The culled laying hen index nationwide is 114.44 (2015 = 100), with a环比 decrease of 10.19 [2] - The average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas is 2.8 yuan per chick, with no change [2] - The new - hatched chick index nationwide is 67.09 (2015 = 100), with a环比 decrease of 9.56 [2] - The average price of laying hen compound feed is 2.8 yuan/kg, with no change [2] - The breeding profit of laying hens is - 0.36 yuan per chicken, with no change [2] - The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas is 7.9 yuan/kg, with a环比 decrease of 0.04 yuan [2] - The age of culled chickens nationwide is 510 days, with a环比 increase of 3 days [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 17.56 yuan/kg, with a环比 increase of 0.03 yuan [2] - The average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.83 yuan/kg, with a环比 decrease of 0.04 yuan [2] - The average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.92 yuan/kg, with a环比 increase of 0.08 yuan [2] - The weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.12 days, with a环比 increase of 0.02 days [2] - The weekly inventory in the production link is 1 day, with a环比 decrease of 0.01 days [2] - The export volume of fresh eggs in the current month is 13394.53 tons, with a环比 increase of 178.74 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption volume of eggs in the sales areas is 7023 tons, with a环比 decrease of 104 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong's main production area is 5.99 yuan/kg, down 0.16 yuan from yesterday; in Hebei, it is 5.78 yuan/kg, down 0.08 yuan; in Guangdong, it is 6.53 yuan/kg, unchanged; in Beijing, it is 6.30 yuan/kg, down 0.10 yuan [2] - The continuous losses of the breeding end have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishment and an increase in the number of old chicken culls. The laying hen inventory has slightly decreased, and the market atmosphere has slightly improved [2] 3.7 Key Points to Focus On - There is no news today [2]

Core Insights - The egg price is continuously declining, leading the egg-laying industry into a loss situation, despite an increase in the enthusiasm for replenishing stock among producers [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, the egg market is experiencing a downturn, with producers facing losses, yet the sales of commercial layer chicks increased by 20% year-on-year from January to April [1] - The cash flow cost for egg-laying operations in Hebei is between 2.6 to 2.7 yuan per jin, with prices dropping below this cost since early June, indicating a critical cash flow loss situation [2] - The market sentiment is pessimistic regarding short-term price increases due to high production capacity, with many producers and traders planning to stockpile eggs at low prices in anticipation of a price recovery before the Mid-Autumn Festival [3] Group 2: Production Challenges - The industry is facing a cash flow loss threshold, with daily losses of approximately 500 yuan for every 10,000 hens, highlighting the financial strain on producers [2] - There is a notable increase in the rate of old hen culling, but the overall resilience of producers is evident, as many are opting for molting strategies instead of panic culling [2] - The market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with small-sized eggs being oversupplied and facing sales pressure, while larger eggs are in short supply [3] Group 3: Health Issues - The prevalence of chicken diseases has increased, with infection rates in some areas reaching 30%, leading to a significant drop in egg production rates among affected flocks [4] - The market price for non-productive chickens has decreased from approximately 5 yuan per jin last year to 3.6 yuan per jin, exacerbating the financial pressures on producers [4]