食品饮料 2026 年 01 月 30 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《预制菜国家标准待出台，市场集中 度有望加速提升—行业点评报告》 -2026.1.29 《2025Q4 食品饮料持仓回落，布局窗 口渐行渐近 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2026.1.27 《春节旺季备货催化，大众品迎来布 局窗口—行业周报》-2026.1.25 黄酒复兴趋势持续，期待 2026 年有新突破 ——行业点评报告 张宇光（分析师） 逄晓娟（分析师） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn pangxiaojuan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521060002 数据来源：聚源 2025 年黄酒行业峥嵘初现，成长逻辑清晰 2025 年黄酒板块股价涨幅较好，会稽山全年涨幅约 90%，古越龙山同步走强； 产品提价+高端产品+气泡黄酒等新品破圈等多重重要催化，带来机构关注度提 升，5 月单月板块指数涨超 31%，显著跑赢了白酒和啤酒。 产品高端化有效落地 黄酒高端化已从共识走向落地，头 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 黄酒行业调研反馈报告 推荐（维持） 三问三答，黄酒复兴行至何方？ 行业研究 其他酒 2026 年 01 月 26 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：欧阳予 邮箱：ouyangyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520070001 证券分析师：田晨曦 邮箱：tianchenxi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522090005 证券分析师：刘旭德 邮箱：liuxude@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080010 证券分析师：董广阳 邮箱：dongguangyang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518040001 联系人：王培培 邮箱：wangpeipei@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 10 | 0.00 | | 总市值(亿元) | 752.55 | 0.06 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 678.81 | 0.07 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 4.1 ...

本报记者 徐刚领 直播间里，一款气泡黄酒被秒光；资本市场，一家黄酒企业股价一年飙涨90%；消费市场，古老酒香飘 进年轻圈层——黄酒正在上演一场逆袭大戏。 2025年的中国酒业，黄酒板块成绩亮眼。从会稽山"一日一熏气泡黄酒"创下千万级销量，到古越龙山与 华润啤酒联名推出"越小啤"，从山西代县打造"黄酒专业镇"到湖北房县标准化改造传统作坊，一场席卷 南北的黄酒浪潮正扑面而来。数据显示，2025年会稽山股价年度涨幅高达90.15%，成为酒类上市公司 中的领跑者。 三重浪潮下的精准卡位 黄酒被誉为"酒中之祖"，起源于中国，与啤酒、葡萄酒并称世界三大古酒。数据显示，2024年全国黄酒 行业生产企业数量近800家，主要分布在浙江、上海、江苏，营业收入200亿元，同比增长5.26%，产量 约400万吨，同比增长3.5%。 "2025年是黄酒复兴元年。" 张宗良坚定地表示。他在这个行业深耕近30年，亲眼见证了2025年的转 变。 张宗良所说的复兴，并非空穴来风。专家分析指出，黄酒崛起精准嵌入了三重时代浪潮交汇点。 首先是文化价值的回归。当酿酒与茶叶、瓷器并列为"历史经典产业"，黄酒获得了超越饮品本身的文化 背书。 其次是消费 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company Gu Yue Long Shan is committed to the revival of Huangjiu (yellow wine) as both a cultural heritage and a business, focusing on high-end, youthful, global, and digital strategies to expand the market and promote Huangjiu culture [2][6]. Group 1: Business Strategy - Gu Yue Long Shan views its competition not as other Huangjiu brands but as a challenge to promote the category and culture of Huangjiu to a broader audience [2]. - The company has seen significant growth in new business formats, with a 22.64% year-on-year increase in new business sales and a 15.31% increase in online sales [2]. - The introduction of innovative products, such as the "Wu Gao Di" targeting younger consumers, has resulted in over 330,000 bottles sold in its first year, with more than 70% of orders coming from the younger demographic [6]. Group 2: Technological Innovation - Gu Yue Long Shan is investing in smart manufacturing, with a 22 billion yuan project set to be completed by the end of 2024, which will enhance automation and efficiency in production [3]. - The company has maintained the largest capacity for hand-crafted Huangjiu production while addressing challenges such as high costs and low efficiency through technological upgrades [3][4]. - Research and development expenditures reached 17.46 million yuan in the first half of the year, marking a 33.61% increase year-on-year, reflecting the company's commitment to innovation [4]. Group 3: Market Expansion - The company has opened 66 tasting and slow wine bars across the country, with revenue from markets outside Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai reaching 40.74% in 2024 [7]. - Gu Yue Long Shan is actively expanding its market presence through initiatives like "Bai Cheng Gong Pin," aiming to enhance brand visibility and consumer engagement nationwide [8]. - The company is also exploring cross-industry collaborations, such as a partnership with China Resources Beer to create a new product that combines Huangjiu and beer [6]. Group 4: Cultural Significance - Gu Yue Long Shan emphasizes the cultural heritage of Huangjiu, viewing it as a living cultural legacy and a historical narrative rather than just a commodity [8]. - The company has a significant inventory of over 11 million jars, approximately 260,000 tons of original wine, which it considers a valuable asset [8]. - The company aims to contribute to the broader Huangjiu industry, with a goal of achieving 10 billion yuan in annual sales by 2027 and capturing over 50% of the national market share [8].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 32 CNY [5][6]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leader in the revival of the yellow wine industry, leveraging its flexible mechanisms and strategic advantages to drive growth [5][6]. - The company has a clear strategy focusing on high-end, youth-oriented, and nationwide expansion, which is expected to enhance its market position and profitability [5][6]. - The report anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 15% for revenue from 2025 to 2027, with a projected revenue scale exceeding 40 billion CNY in the medium to long term [5][6]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections (in million CNY) for the company are as follows: - 2024A: 1,631 - 2025E: 1,903 - 2026E: 2,211 - 2027E: 2,602 - Year-on-year growth rates for total revenue are projected at: - 2024A: 15.6% - 2025E: 16.7% - 2026E: 16.2% - 2027E: 17.7% [5][6]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders (in million CNY) is projected as follows: - 2024A: 196 - 2025E: 227 - 2026E: 309 - 2027E: 421 - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected at: - 2024A: 17.7% - 2025E: 15.7% - 2026E: 36.3% - 2027E: 36.0% [5][6]. Strategic Focus - The company is focusing on three main strategies: high-end product development, youth engagement, and national market expansion [5][6]. - The high-end product line, particularly the 1743 and Lanting series, is expected to drive significant revenue growth and enhance brand value [5][6]. - The company aims to increase its market penetration in the Yangtze River Delta and expand its presence in other regions, with a strong emphasis on e-commerce [5][6]. Market Position - The company has achieved the leading position in the yellow wine industry, with a revenue growth rate of over 15% in the first three quarters of 2025 [5][6]. - The company’s market strategy includes enhancing product structure and increasing the proportion of mid-to-high-end products, which has positively impacted its gross margin [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The situation of Kuaijishan reflects the awkwardness of the entire yellow wine industry, which is trying to seek growth through "youthification" while lacking a sustainable and profitable high-end path like that of white wine [2][19]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since August, the yellow wine industry has experienced a "highlight moment" with Kuaijishan's market value surpassing Guyue Longshan, becoming the new market leader in yellow wine [3][11]. - The entry of private equity mogul Ge Weidong into Kuaijishan's shareholder list was seen as a vote of confidence, leading to market optimism about a potential "revival" of yellow wine [3][13]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Kuaijishan's financial report for the first half of 2025 showed revenue of approximately 817 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.03%, but net profit attributable to shareholders was only 94 million yuan, a mere 3.41% increase [5][17]. - The second quarter's net profit attributable to shareholders was only 134,000 yuan, almost negligible, and the non-recurring net profit showed a loss, contrasting sharply with the previous quarter's performance [5][19]. Group 3: Marketing and Sales Strategy - Kuaijishan has heavily invested in marketing, with sales expenses reaching 215 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 54%, consuming nearly half of its gross profit [5][16]. - The brand has gained significant attention on social media platforms like Douyin and Xiaohongshu, achieving a GMV of over 50 million yuan for its "Yiyiyixun" sparkling yellow wine during the "618" shopping festival, a 400% year-on-year increase [7][11]. Group 4: Regional Sales Performance - The main revenue growth for Kuaijishan in the first half of 2025 came from its home market in Zhejiang, while the core market of Shanghai saw a decline in performance [13][14]. - Sales data by region showed that the Jiangsu region experienced a 13.83% decline, and the Shanghai area saw an 11.33% drop in sales compared to the previous year [14]. Group 5: Product Sales and Positioning - The majority of Kuaijishan's revenue still comes from traditional yellow wine products, with mid-to-high-end yellow wine sales increasing by 7.16% year-on-year [18][19]. - The brand's attempts to break into the high-end market with products priced between 300 to 800 yuan have not achieved significant scale, highlighting the challenges in positioning and market perception [19][22]. Group 6: Industry Challenges - The yellow wine industry faces a fundamental dilemma, trying to appeal to both older consumers through health attributes and younger consumers through trendy marketing, resulting in a lack of clear brand identity [19][22]. - The so-called "revival of yellow wine" relies heavily on marketing rather than genuine changes in product strength or consumer habits, which poses a risk to long-term sustainability [16][22].

Core Viewpoint - The yellow wine industry is undergoing a transformation driven by policy support and cultural confidence, focusing on "premiumization, youthfulness, and nationalization" to reshape market perception [1] Industry Summary - The yellow wine market is expected to experience a breakthrough, initiating a revival path for leading companies in conjunction with the industry [1] - The transformation practices of leading companies are centered around achieving success in premiumization and nationalization [1] Company Summary - Two leading yellow wine companies, Kuaijishan (601579) and Guyuelongshan (600059), have made significant progress in premiumization and nationalization, indicating their growth potential [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the yellow wine industry is experiencing a significant boom, with companies like Guyue Longshan and Kuaijishan seeing substantial stock price increases and sales growth [2][3][4] - The supply-demand dynamics in the yellow wine industry have improved, with the number of large-scale yellow wine enterprises decreasing from over 110 at its peak to 81 in 2023 [3][4] - Kuaijishan's production has halved since 2017, contributing to the supply-demand optimization that allows major yellow wine brands to announce price increases [4][5] Group 2 - Kuaijishan has launched high-end products priced at 2099 yuan, surpassing some premium white wines, and has introduced innovative products like coffee yellow wine and sparkling yellow wine to attract younger consumers [5][6] - The revenue of Guyue Longshan reached nearly 2 billion yuan last year, marking four consecutive years of growth, while Kuaijishan's revenue reached 1.6 billion yuan, surpassing Guyue Longshan in the first quarter of this year [6][7] - Despite the current popularity, over 60% of yellow wine revenue still comes from the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai regions, indicating a reliance on local markets [7]

Core Viewpoint - The market value of Kuaijishan has surged, surpassing 120 billion CNY, making it the leading yellow wine company in A-shares, driven by innovative products and strong sales performance [1][12][15]. Group 1: Company Performance - Kuaijishan's market value increased from 50 billion CNY to 100 billion CNY within a month, with a year-to-date stock price increase of 130% as of May 30 [1][11]. - The company’s innovative product, "sparkling yellow wine," endorsed by celebrity Wu Yanzu, has seen explosive sales, exceeding 10 million CNY in just 12 hours during a promotional event [3][4]. - Kuaijishan's revenue for 2024 was reported at 1.631 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.6% [15]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The yellow wine sector is experiencing a favorable market environment, with Kuaijishan and Guyue Longshan benefiting from a stable competitive landscape and supply-demand optimization [12][15]. - The overall market size for yellow wine is approximately 200 billion CNY, significantly smaller than the white wine industry, which exceeds 600 billion CNY, indicating substantial growth potential for yellow wine [19][20]. - Recent regulatory changes in public dining have shifted investor interest from white wine to yellow wine, with Kuaijishan being one of the few national yellow wine brands [18][20]. Group 3: Competitive Positioning - Kuaijishan's agile marketing strategies and innovative product offerings have positioned it favorably against competitors, with a notable focus on high-end product lines [13][16]. - The company has achieved a gross margin of over 52% in its main wine business, outperforming its main competitor, Guyue Longshan, which has a gross margin of around 37% [15]. - Despite the current high rolling price-to-earnings ratio exceeding 60, Kuaijishan's performance and market strategies have garnered significant investor interest [20][22].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the stock price of Huaiqishan is attributed to a combination of favorable market conditions, innovative product offerings, and a shift in investor sentiment towards the yellow wine sector, which is experiencing a revival due to its growth potential and appeal to younger consumers [2][3][9]. Company Performance - Huaiqishan's stock price increased by 76% from May 19 to May 28, 2025, with a year-to-date rise of 132%, outperforming other alcoholic beverage stocks [2]. - The company reported a revenue of 1.631 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 15.6% year-on-year growth, and announced a record high annual dividend, further attracting investors [6]. - In the first quarter of 2025, Huaiqishan's net profit significantly surpassed that of its competitor, Guyue Longshan, indicating strong operational performance [7][8]. Market Dynamics - The yellow wine industry is witnessing a supply-demand optimization, with leading brands like Huaiqishan and Guyue Longshan benefiting from a more concentrated market share and improved pricing power [2][7]. - The market for yellow wine is relatively small, with an annual scale of approximately 20 billion yuan, compared to the white wine industry's over 600 billion yuan, suggesting substantial growth potential [9]. Innovation and Consumer Trends - Huaiqishan's innovative product, the sparkling yellow wine "Yiri Yixun," achieved over 10 million yuan in sales within 12 hours during a promotional event, highlighting its appeal to younger consumers [4][7]. - The company has successfully positioned itself as a national yellow wine brand, capitalizing on the trend of health-conscious and low-alcohol beverages among younger demographics [9]. Competitive Landscape - Huaiqishan's market capitalization surpassed 12 billion yuan, making it the new leader in the yellow wine sector, overtaking Guyue Longshan [2]. - The company has demonstrated greater flexibility in market promotion and product innovation compared to its competitors, which has contributed to its recent success [8]. Future Outlook - Despite the current high rolling price-to-earnings ratio exceeding 60 times, which is a historical peak for Huaiqishan, the sustainability of this growth will depend on the company's ability to convert market interest into consistent sales and expand its market presence beyond its traditional regions [10][12].