| + | ¥103.05 入会到手价 ¥119 | 满399减20 先享后付 支持送礼 | | --- | --- | --- | | 已售 4000+ 94%好评 | 店铺回头客6千 会稽山官方旗舰店 进店> | | 行业低迷之际，有酒企率先为产品定下新年销售目标。 "这是黄酒行业原本不可想象的。" 1月7日，会稽山（601579）党委书记、副董事长傅祖康在行业大会上透露，旗下创新产品"一日一熏"气泡黄酒去年销售额突破一亿元，今年剑指两亿元。 会稽山气泡黄酒于2023年年中推出，是公司年轻化战略中的重要单品，酒精度数仅8度，京东平台显示其单瓶售价为11元。上市之初产品销量平淡，直至 2024年"618"期间与网红合作、在抖音直播间取得"3天销售额1000万元"的成绩才被市场知晓，甚至一度带动会稽山股价涨停，产品销售渠道也由电商平台 扩大至部分区域的线下商超。 不过现在看来，当时的热度仅为"昙花一现"，此后气泡黄酒在市场的存在感不高，"一日一熏"这款创新产品也始终存在口味争议。 部分消费者称赞其口感特别，冰镇后尤为清爽；也有不少人直言"难喝"，反馈味道像"加了气泡的料酒"，丢了黄酒本有的温暖，又不如啤酒清爽 ...

证券研究报告 | 首次覆盖报告 gszqdatemark 2025 12 29 年 月 日 会稽山（601579.SH） 鉴水酿新，稽山领航 会稽山：从古法酿造到转型升级，引领黄酒价值复兴。1）历史复盘：会稽山作为 中国黄酒行业领头羊，历经 280 余年发展，整体可划分为初创沉淀期、资本整合 期、创新变革期三个阶段。作为黄酒行业标杆企业，坚持"高端化、年轻化、全国 化"的战略导向，持续推进和实施黄酒主业深耕战略。2）管理情况：公司控股股 东为中建信（浙江）创业投资有限公司，中建信聚焦投资与新材料等领域，资金实 力与产业整合能力突出。公司依托民企灵活高效的经营管理机制，有利于战略高 效执行。3）财务情况：2024 年公司收入利润创历史新高，实现营收 16.31 亿元、 同比+15.6%，归母净利润 1.96 亿元、同比+17.74%，业绩增长稳健。 黄酒行业转型稳步推进，品类价值亟待释放。1）商业模式：黄酒作为中国独有传 统酒种，兼具饮用与文化价值，属地性较强，年轻消费群体拓展空间充足。2）行 业规模：2023 年中国黄酒市场销售收入为 210 亿元，同比+2.10%，2016-2023 年规模以上黄酒企业数量 ...

Core Viewpoint - The yellow wine industry in China is experiencing a structural turning point driven by five key forces: technological breakthroughs, brand value reassessment, channel reconstruction, policy empowerment, and generational change, leading to increased industry concentration and the emergence of leading players like Kuaijishan [1] Brand Perspective - Kuaijishan leverages its 280 years of brewing heritage, national secret-level techniques, and aged raw materials to build a quality foundation and historical assets as one of the "Eight Famous Wines" [1] - The company has established a dual-brand strategy with "Kuaijishan" and "Lanting," focusing on high-end and nationwide expansion, while also holding multiple brand resources for collaborative development [1] - The main brand "Kuaijishan" targets mainstream price upgrades and youth transformation, promoting the "1743" as a flagship product, while the high-end brand "Lanting" integrates cultural IP to establish a premium image [1][2] Product Perspective - The company is driving product structure optimization through category innovation, health upgrades, and youthful design [2] - Health-oriented products have been developed to meet modern low-sugar and low-burden consumption needs, while the "One Day One Smoke" sparkling yellow wine caters to younger consumers [2] - The company has implemented a dual strategy of price increases and premiumization to address cost pressures, resulting in a 31.3% year-on-year growth in mid-to-high-end wine sales revenue in 2024 [2] Channel Perspective - Kuaijishan has built a national network focused on distribution, with a three-tier market strategy to enhance core market management and explore emerging channels [3] - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 983 million yuan in the Zhejiang region, significantly outperforming peers [3] - The rapid growth of online channels has led to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 50% for mid-to-high-end product e-commerce revenue [3] Future Outlook - The yellow wine market is expected to benefit from generational shifts and cultural changes reshaping alcohol consumption patterns, with potential to capture part of the social demand traditionally dominated by white spirits [4] - The company’s brand strength is anticipated to elevate the industry from a single-leader model to a collaborative development phase, promoting overall industry prosperity [4] - The yellow wine industry enjoys favorable tax policies, providing additional support for profit margins, with a clear path for profit improvement as the industry grows [4] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is positioned to benefit from the high-end, national, and youthful transformation of the yellow wine industry, with projected revenues of 1.882 billion yuan and 2.185 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 15.4% and 16.1% [5] - The expected net profit for the same years is projected at 215 million yuan and 232 million yuan, with year-on-year growth of 9.4% and 8.2% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The situation of Kuaijishan reflects the awkwardness of the entire yellow wine industry, which is trying to seek growth through "youthification" while lacking a sustainable and profitable high-end path like that of white wine [2][19]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since August, the yellow wine industry has experienced a "highlight moment" with Kuaijishan's market value surpassing Guyue Longshan, becoming the new market leader in yellow wine [3][11]. - The entry of private equity mogul Ge Weidong into Kuaijishan's shareholder list was seen as a vote of confidence, leading to market optimism about a potential "revival" of yellow wine [3][13]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Kuaijishan's financial report for the first half of 2025 showed revenue of approximately 817 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.03%, but net profit attributable to shareholders was only 94 million yuan, a mere 3.41% increase [5][17]. - The second quarter's net profit attributable to shareholders was only 134,000 yuan, almost negligible, and the non-recurring net profit showed a loss, contrasting sharply with the previous quarter's performance [5][19]. Group 3: Marketing and Sales Strategy - Kuaijishan has heavily invested in marketing, with sales expenses reaching 215 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 54%, consuming nearly half of its gross profit [5][16]. - The brand has gained significant attention on social media platforms like Douyin and Xiaohongshu, achieving a GMV of over 50 million yuan for its "Yiyiyixun" sparkling yellow wine during the "618" shopping festival, a 400% year-on-year increase [7][11]. Group 4: Regional Sales Performance - The main revenue growth for Kuaijishan in the first half of 2025 came from its home market in Zhejiang, while the core market of Shanghai saw a decline in performance [13][14]. - Sales data by region showed that the Jiangsu region experienced a 13.83% decline, and the Shanghai area saw an 11.33% drop in sales compared to the previous year [14]. Group 5: Product Sales and Positioning - The majority of Kuaijishan's revenue still comes from traditional yellow wine products, with mid-to-high-end yellow wine sales increasing by 7.16% year-on-year [18][19]. - The brand's attempts to break into the high-end market with products priced between 300 to 800 yuan have not achieved significant scale, highlighting the challenges in positioning and market perception [19][22]. Group 6: Industry Challenges - The yellow wine industry faces a fundamental dilemma, trying to appeal to both older consumers through health attributes and younger consumers through trendy marketing, resulting in a lack of clear brand identity [19][22]. - The so-called "revival of yellow wine" relies heavily on marketing rather than genuine changes in product strength or consumer habits, which poses a risk to long-term sustainability [16][22].

Group 1: Industry Environment - The white liquor industry is undergoing a significant adjustment, with companies accelerating the development of younger and lower-alcohol products to cater to the preferences of younger consumers, particularly those born in the 1990s and 2000s [1][2] - The market for low-alcohol liquor is expected to reach 740 billion yuan by 2025, indicating a shift in consumer habits towards more complex flavors and healthier drinking experiences [1] - The industry is facing high inventory levels and the impact of alcohol bans, leading to a focus on new consumption scenarios such as home gatherings and casual drinking [2][3] Group 2: Market Trends - The white liquor market is entering a phase of stock competition, with younger consumers driving demand for lower-alcohol and fruit-flavored beverages [2][3] - Instant retail has emerged as a crucial sales channel, particularly during events like the 618 shopping festival, where white liquor sales saw significant growth [6] - The overall market is experiencing a decline in volume and price, with a shift towards family and celebration consumption scenarios, while online sales are increasing but overall activity remains subdued [4] Group 3: Policy and Regulation - Recent adjustments to the "ban on alcohol" policy have clarified the distinction between normal dining and violations, which is expected to restore confidence in the market and improve consumption levels [5] - The white liquor industry is adapting to a "shrinkage era," where the focus is shifting from government and business consumption to consumer-driven demand [7][8] Group 4: Company Dynamics - Major companies like Wuliangye are focusing on quality and brand building, with a commitment to maintaining a cash dividend ratio of no less than 70% over the next three years [20][21] - Luzhou Laojiao is leading the standardization and digitalization of the aged liquor market, enhancing market transparency and quality [13] - The industry is witnessing a trend towards internationalization, with companies like Shede Liquor leveraging cultural events to promote Chinese liquor abroad [12] Group 5: Competitive Landscape - The competition in the white liquor market is intensifying, with companies needing to optimize product structures and embrace digitalization to adapt to new consumer trends [8][9] - The rise of e-commerce and instant retail is disrupting traditional pricing structures, prompting companies to rethink their channel strategies and brand value [9][10] - The market is seeing a shift towards health-oriented and lower-alcohol products, with companies like Kuaijishan adapting their strategies to capture this emerging demand [27]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company for the first time [6]. Core Views - The company is experiencing steady revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.86% for revenue and 3.34% for net profit from 2019 to 2024. The growth is driven by strategic focus on high-end and youth-oriented products, channel breakthroughs, and organizational adaptability [12][6]. - The company has successfully positioned itself in the market by leveraging its historical heritage and cultural significance, while also appealing to younger consumers through innovative products like sparkling yellow wine [6][12]. - The management team has undergone significant changes, with a renewed focus on high-end and youth strategies, leading to consistent revenue and profit growth of over 15% in recent years [6][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Introduction - The company has shown a remarkable growth trajectory, particularly since Q2 2023, with a projected revenue increase of 15.6% and net profit growth of 17.74% in 2024 [12]. 2. Yellow Wine Industry Overview - The yellow wine industry has a rich cultural heritage but has faced challenges such as market concentration and declining enterprise numbers, with the number of large-scale yellow wine enterprises decreasing from 112 in 2016 to 81 in 2023 [18][39]. 3. Company Overview - The company is recognized as a leading player in the yellow wine industry, actively exploring reforms and optimizing its governance structure to enhance market flexibility [6][12]. 4. Growth Drivers - The company's growth is attributed to a well-structured product matrix focusing on high-end and youth-oriented offerings, deepening channel strategies, and effective brand communication [6][12]. - The company has successfully expanded its online sales, with a 90% increase in online revenue in 2024, and has strengthened its sales team to enhance market penetration [6][12]. 5. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.3 billion, 2.8 billion, and 3.3 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 44, 36, and 31 [6][12].

Core Viewpoint - Kuaijishan has surpassed Guyuelongshan to become the market leader in the yellow wine sector, driven by its successful youth-oriented strategy and innovative products like the "Yiyiyixun" sparkling yellow wine, which has resonated well with younger consumers [1][4][11] Company Performance - Kuaijishan's market capitalization reached 10.6 billion yuan, exceeding Guyuelongshan's 9.92 billion yuan [4] - In Q1, Kuaijishan reported revenue of 481 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.10%, and a net profit of 93.74 million yuan, up 1.70% [4] - In contrast, Guyuelongshan's Q1 revenue was 539 million yuan, down 4.90%, with a net profit of 59.02 million yuan, also down 4.82% [4] Revenue Growth Comparison - Kuaijishan's projected revenues for 2022-2024 are 1.227 billion yuan, 1.411 billion yuan, and 1.631 billion yuan, respectively [5] - Guyuelongshan's projected revenues for the same period are 1.620 billion yuan, 1.784 billion yuan, and 1.936 billion yuan [5] - Kuaijishan's net profits for 2022-2024 are expected to be 145 million yuan, 167 million yuan, and 196 million yuan, while Guyuelongshan's are projected at 202 million yuan, 397 million yuan, and 206 million yuan [5] Market Strategy - Kuaijishan focuses on the East China market without rushing into nationwide expansion, allowing for a more stable growth strategy [6] - The company has successfully engaged younger consumers through innovative marketing strategies, including social media and live-streaming sales [6][12] - The "Yiyiyixun" sparkling yellow wine has gained significant traction, achieving over 10 million yuan in sales within 12 hours on Douyin, with over 40% of buyers aged 18-35 [7][8] Industry Trends - The yellow wine market faces challenges such as regional strongholds and an aging consumer base, prompting companies to innovate and target younger demographics [7][11] - The rise of low-alcohol and flavored yellow wines is attracting younger consumers, aligning with their preferences for diverse and healthier drinking options [12] - The industry recognizes that appealing to younger consumers is essential for future growth, with a focus on brand storytelling and cultural engagement [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - The current liquor industry is in a bottoming phase, with stable prices for premium liquor during the off-season and no further accumulation of inventory. Major liquor companies are innovating their business models to cope with cyclical pressures and are actively seeking new growth points through scenario transformation and cultural experiences [1][2]. Group 1: Liquor Industry Overview - The liquor industry is experiencing a weak recovery, with terminal demand remaining sluggish. The decline in consumption during the Dragon Boat Festival is attributed to slow recovery in consumer spending and a reduction in business banquet scenarios. Recent regulations on government consumption have raised market concerns, but the actual impact is limited as government consumption has already been at a low level [1][2]. Group 2: Yellow Wine Opportunities - Yellow wine is breaking the stereotype of being a "traditional elderly drink" and is penetrating younger consumer scenarios. The demand for healthier and lighter drinking options is rising, and yellow wine's health attributes and cultural revival are creating a foundation for long-term category expansion. Leading companies are innovating to attract younger consumers and are expected to open new growth avenues in the low-alcohol beverage sector [3]. Group 3: Recommended Stocks - Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SH): Facing short-term demand pressure but has high mid-term growth certainty with product structure upgrades and accelerated national expansion [4]. - Guizhou Moutai (600519.SH): Emphasizing sustainable development and increasing dividend rates, positioning for long-term growth post-cycle [4]. - Ximai Food (002956.SZ): Steady growth in the oat business with rapid channel expansion and improved profitability due to favorable raw material costs [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the liquor industry is in a bottoming phase, with signs of stabilization in fundamentals. The high-end liquor sector is expected to see a recovery in demand and valuation in the second half of the year. The report emphasizes focusing on leading regional high-end liquor companies while waiting for demand recovery and valuation repair to resonate [3][11] - The report highlights significant opportunities in the yellow wine sector, which is experiencing a revival driven by changing consumer preferences towards healthier and lighter drinking options. The report notes that yellow wine is well-positioned to cater to the "self-consumption" trend and is gradually breaking the stereotype of being a traditional drink for older consumers [4][12] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - From May 26 to May 30, the food and beverage index declined by 1.1%, ranking 24th among 28 sub-industries, performing in line with the CSI 300 index. The soft drink (+9.3%), other alcoholic beverages (+7.1%), and beer (+3.2%) sectors showed relatively strong performance [3][11][13] Market Performance - The liquor industry continues to show weak recovery, with terminal demand remaining sluggish. The report attributes this to slow consumer recovery and a reduction in business banquet scenarios. The recent re-emphasis on the prohibition of alcohol consumption in government settings has raised market concerns, but the actual impact is considered limited due to already low levels of government consumption [3][11][12] Upstream Data - As of May 20, the auction price for whole milk powder was $4,332 per ton, a year-on-year increase of 27.1%. Meanwhile, the domestic fresh milk price was 3.1 yuan per kilogram, showing a year-on-year decrease of 8.9%. The report suggests that domestic milk prices are still on a downward trend in the short term [21][24] Liquor Industry News - The report mentions that the Guizhou Moutai (Walking Series) is set to launch soon, and during the recent promotional event, the overall sales of liquor exceeded 300 million yuan within 12 hours, marking a significant increase compared to the previous year [44][45]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Kuaijishan (601579.SH) reached a historical high, surpassing its competitor Guyue Longshan (600059) in market capitalization, indicating a significant shift in the yellow wine market dynamics [1][2]. Company Performance - Kuaijishan's stock closed at 21.33 yuan per share, with a total market value of 10.23 billion yuan, while Guyue Longshan's market value was 9.73 billion yuan [1][2]. - Kuaijishan's net profit for 2023 and 2024 is projected to be 167 million yuan and 196 million yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 15.11% and 17.74% [1][7]. - In Q1 2024, Kuaijishan reported a net profit of 93.74 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.7% [1][7]. - In contrast, Guyue Longshan's net profit is expected to decline by 48.17% in 2024, with a 4.82% decrease in Q1 2024 [1][6][7]. Market Trends - The yellow wine industry is experiencing a shift towards health-conscious and diverse consumer preferences, with Kuaijishan benefiting from this trend [2][4]. - Both Kuaijishan and Guyue Longshan have implemented price increases on key products, with Kuaijishan raising prices by 4%-9% across various product lines [3][4]. Marketing and Sales Strategy - Kuaijishan has focused on optimizing its product structure and enhancing marketing efforts, leading to a significant increase in sales expenses, which rose by 60.25% to 332 million yuan in 2024 [7][8]. - The company has successfully expanded its online sales, with online revenue from mid-to-high-end yellow wine reaching 173 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 89.74% [8]. Regional Focus - Kuaijishan's sales remain concentrated in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai regions, with the Zhejiang region accounting for 62.1% of total sales revenue in 2024 [9].