证券研究报告·行业深度报告·食品饮料 食品饮料行业深度报告 黄酒行业深度：供需共振，高端化与年轻化 突围 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 证券分析师 苏铖 执业证书：S0600524120010 such@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 郭晓东 执业证书：S0600525040001 guoxd@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -11% -7% -3% 1% 5% 9% 13% 17% 21% 25% 2024/7/8 2024/11/5 2025/3/5 2025/7/3 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究 《啤酒行业深度：攻守兼备，优质龙 头已进入击球区》 2025-05-22 《大众品 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报 总结：需求筑底，细分突围》 2025-05-07 ◼ 风险提示：宏观经济不及预期；食品安全问题；市场竞争加剧。 2025 年 07 月 07 日 东吴证券研究所 1 / 26 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 黄酒行业经历深度调整，当下发生积极变化。1）黄酒行业利润率迎来 边际拐点，龙头量价齐升。2023 年规模以上企业收入 85 ...

Core Viewpoint - Wen Zhengming transformed from an underestimated child into a prominent figure in Jiangnan art, achieving mastery in both calligraphy and painting over nearly ninety years of dedication [1][2]. Group 1: Early Life and Development - Wen Zhengming was perceived as slow-witted in his youth, but his father, Wen Lin, believed in his potential, stating that late bloomers can still achieve greatness [2][3]. - Despite failing the provincial examination nine times, Wen Zhengming's father encouraged him, contrasting his journey with that of his talented friend Tang Yin, who achieved success quickly but later faced downfall due to misconduct [2][3]. Group 2: Artistic Pursuits - At nineteen, Wen Zhengming pursued painting against his father's friend's advice, who suggested he focus on obtaining a degree instead [3]. - His mentor, Shen Zhou, recognized his potential and provided extensive guidance, which laid the foundation for Wen Zhengming's artistic skills [3]. Group 3: Principles and Integrity - Wen Zhengming maintained strong principles, refusing to accept gifts from powerful figures and declining offers to work for them, which showcased his integrity [4][5]. - He was known for his humility and generosity, often supporting younger artists like Qiu Ying by promoting their work despite his own established reputation [6]. Group 4: Legacy and Influence - Wen Zhengming's calligraphy and painting were characterized by elegance and depth, with his works reflecting a blend of traditional styles and personal expression [7][8]. - His influence extended to later generations, particularly in flower-and-bird painting, where he developed a unique style that combined meticulous detail with a refined aesthetic [9][10]. - He preferred regular script and semi-cursive styles, achieving a balance of grace and strength, which distinguished him from contemporaries who favored more flamboyant styles [12].

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 黄酒行业深度研究报告 推荐（首次） 中国黄酒，复兴在望 其他酒 2025 年 06 月 19 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：欧阳予 邮箱：ouyangyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520070001 证券分析师：田晨曦 邮箱：tianchenxi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522090005 证券分析师：刘旭德 邮箱：liuxude@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080010 证券分析师：董广阳 电话：021-20572598 邮箱：dongguangyang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518040001 联系人：王培培 邮箱：wangpeipei@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 10 | 0.00 | | 总市值(亿元) | 787.20 | 0.08 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 698.06 | 0.09 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

证券研究报告·公司深度研究·非白酒 会稽山（601579） 增持（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 1,411 | 1,631 | 1,900 | 2,233 | 2,555 | | 同比（%） | 15.01 | 15.60 | 16.48 | 17.52 | 14.40 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 166.63 | 196.19 | 231.61 | 280.26 | 327.66 | | 同比（%） | 15.11 | 17.74 | 18.05 | 21.00 | 16.91 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.35 | 0.41 | 0.48 | 0.58 | 0.68 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 61.12 | 51.91 | 43.97 | 36.34 | 31.08 | [投资要点 Table_Summary] 锐意进取，重塑成长曲线 2025 年 06 月 18 ...

近年来，黄酒赛道异军突起，从资本市场的'黑马'到年轻消费群体的新宠，黄酒行业似乎正在经历一场前所未有的变革。 6月11日，搜狐酒业播主毕然连线搜狐酒业发展研究院专家欧阳千里，开启搜狐酒馆第24期节目，传统黄酒如何突破地域限制，走向全国甚至全球，直播热 度32万+。 本次对话中，欧阳千里阐述了黄酒股价暴涨是资本与消费联动的金融营销行为，或带动行业扩容。气泡黄酒、明星营销及高端化探索推动增长，电商通过网 红产品完成市场教育。全国化需突破场景限制，高端化、技术升级和文化输出是关键。 以下是直播全文，供行业人士参考。 黄酒行业现状：是真繁荣还是资本炒作 毕然：2025年黄酒板块股价大涨，如会稽山年内涨幅近140%，您认为这是行业基本面改善，还是短期资本推动的结果？ 欧阳千里：需从资本与消费联动的逻辑分析。当股民被视为潜在消费群体时，资本对黄酒板块的短期炒作或长期看好，都会推动股价上涨。这一过程中，财 经媒体的关注会进一步提升板块热度，吸引散户入局，形成"投资关注—消费尝试"的正向循环。从数据看，当前黄酒上市公司股民数量在2.2亿投资者中占 比极小，股价暴涨更像是金融市场的营销行为，若能借此引发更多消费者关注黄酒赛道， ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in Tianhe is showing signs of significant price declines, with several popular properties experiencing record low transaction prices, raising concerns about a potential market collapse [1][2][4]. Price Decline Summary - Recent transactions in Tianhe have seen properties sold at prices significantly lower than historical averages, with one property dropping from 462 million to 270 million, a decrease of approximately 41.56% [2]. - Another property in the same area sold for 327 million, marking a new low with a price drop of 50.45% compared to previous sales of similar units [4]. - A third property transaction recorded a price of 409 million, down from previous highs of 600-700 million for similar units, indicating a drastic market shift [4]. Market Dynamics - The observed price drops are attributed to the actions of financial speculators who may be intentionally lowering prices to create panic selling among homeowners [7][24]. - There is a discrepancy in reported transaction volumes, with differences of up to 30 units in daily sales figures, suggesting potential manipulation or cancellations of transactions [11][12][15]. - Financial speculators are believed to be engaging in practices that involve low-cost acquisitions followed by creating a perception of declining prices to pressure other sellers into lowering their asking prices [18][19]. Speculative Behavior - Speculators are targeting properties that are undervalued or have owners willing to negotiate, allowing them to purchase at lower prices and potentially profit from subsequent sales [18]. - The strategy includes promoting low transaction prices to influence market sentiment, leading to a broader decline in property values [18][19]. - There are concerns about the legal implications of these practices, as speculators may negotiate lower penalties for breaches of contract, further complicating the market dynamics [19][24]. Alternative Perspectives - Some industry experts argue that while financial speculators may influence short-term price fluctuations, the overall market trends are driven by broader economic conditions and supply-demand dynamics [25][26]. - The presence of financial speculators is not new, and their impact on the market is often overstated, as most homeowners are aware of market conditions and do not follow suit in panic selling [26].

黄酒—龙头引领升级，行业共振机遇可期 20250606 您如何看待黄酒行业当前的市场状况和未来的发展趋势？ 黄酒行业目前正处于龙头企业引领升级的阶段，未来整体共振机遇值得期待。 短期来看，由于资金面和情绪面的推动，板块估值相对偏高。然而，从中长期 来看，我们坚定认为这是由龙头企业引领的产业结构升级，为龙头企业带来中 长期趋势性投资机会。 为什么认为黄酒行业有中长期的趋势性机会？ 我们从四个维度分析了黄酒行业的发展前景：政策变化、历史复盘、行业趋势 格局和成长空间。首先，从政策层面看，2023 年 3 月 31 日，会稽山发布提价 通知，随后古越龙山也发布了提价通知，引发市场关注。4 月 28 日，绍兴非上 市黄酒龙头塔牌也发布了提价通知。这些举措显示出龙头企业形成了一种战略 共识，而这种共识背后的推力是产业政策和上层建筑的变化。 从 2016 年起， 树立高端品牌形象需消除消费者对黄酒的低端认知，借鉴古井贡酒经验， 通过推行高端产品改变品牌形象。渠道管理水平提升将驱动主流价位升 级，实现规模和盈利增长。 龙头企业全国化面临挑战，但可借助高端产品、国潮等方式打破低端认 知。会稽山根据地市场扎实，古越龙山品牌认知 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the power of words and their ability to connect individuals across time and space, highlighting their role in personal growth and cultural continuity [2][3][4] - It discusses how literature and poetry can resonate with readers, fostering a sense of identity and self-exploration, as seen in the works of various authors [4][5][6] - The text illustrates the historical significance of written language, from ancient inscriptions to modern literature, as a means of conveying wisdom and thought [3][5] Group 2 - The article reflects on the impact of literary figures and their contributions to society, showcasing how their works inspire future generations [5][6] - It mentions the importance of passing down knowledge and values through writing, as exemplified by the dedication of authors to nurture young minds [5][6] - The narrative encourages young readers to engage with literature, suggesting that their experiences with words can shape their futures and personal journeys [6]

再比如年轻化方面，近年推出了咖啡黄酒、低糖黄酒、气泡黄酒适应年轻人的口味，还开了慢酒馆、小 酒馆做线下场景。 今年，古越龙山股价已经涨了十几个点，会稽山股价涨了一倍多，吊打一众白酒股。 最近618，会稽山 一款气泡黄酒更是12个小时不到卖了上千万元，连吴彦祖都来带货了。 为什么今年火成这样？ 近几年黄酒的行业的供需格局明显优化，黄酒行业正在进入难得的景气周期。 一方面，市面上的黄酒企业少了。全国规上黄酒企业已经从巅峰期的110多家减少到2023年的81家。 产量也少了。比如会稽山，去年产量比2017年少了一半。 正是因为供需优化，让两大黄酒有底气双双宣布涨价。要知道现在大部分白酒价格倒挂，很多洋酒也在 去库存。 另一方面，黄酒也在积极通过高端化、全国化、年轻化、国际化拓展市场。 比如会稽山的高端系列"兰亭"最高定价2099元，比"一茅五"还高。 黄酒最近怎么这么火？ 存量、增量两手抓，给投资者带来了很大的想象空间，也让黄酒股业绩节节攀升。 去年古越龙山营收接近20亿元，连涨四年。会稽山更是加速追赶，去年营收做到16亿元，今年一季度更 是反超大哥古越龙山。 既然如此，这轮黄酒的热度还能持续多久？黄酒真的迎来复兴 ...

文 | 酒讯 子煜 编辑 | 方圆 沉寂多年的黄酒板块突然成为资本市场焦点。 5月，黄酒股涨势迅猛。会稽山5月26日、27日、28日连续3天涨停，古越龙山、金枫酒业股价同样攀 升，5月以来累计涨幅分别为17.36%、18.13%。 这一轮上涨背后，是黄酒行业从产品革新到营销破圈的深层变革。会稽山、古越龙山接连提价，黄酒特 色餐馆、咖啡和文创零售场景上新，高端化和年轻化双轮驱动，黄酒正在撕掉"包邮圈""中老年"的标 签，试图在白酒、啤酒、洋酒的夹击中开辟新赛道。 01 个股集体飙升 就之前的涨势来看，黄酒股的出色表现甚至超过白酒股。万得数据显示，白酒股20日内仅天佑德酒、皇 台酒业、金种子酒、口子窖、伊力特实现上涨，涨幅最高为7.17%，而会稽山、古越龙山、金枫酒业近 20日内涨幅分别为88.66%、16.31%、20.15%。 5月29日，会稽山尾盘拉升，报收26.45元/股，全天股价高点为26.69元/股，日涨幅为2.48%，实现4日连 涨。而经历多日上涨后，古越龙山、金枫酒业这两日有所回调，5月29日分别报收10.41元/股、6.32元/ 股，日跌幅达4.76%、5.39%。 其中，会稽山涨势如虹，也带动 ...