Core Viewpoint - The current gold price uptrend, which began in 2019, has lasted for six years with a cumulative increase of 219%, raising market concerns about future price movements [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Context - Gold has experienced three major uptrends since 1968, with the first from 1970 to 1980 (highest increase of 2323%) and the second from 2001 to 2012 (highest increase of 599%) [2]. - The current uptrend, starting in 2019, has shown a cumulative increase of 219% over six years, which is shorter in duration compared to previous cycles [3]. Group 2: Monetary Attributes - The dollar has depreciated nearly 100% against gold since 1970, with a 35% decline in 2025 alone, driven by increasing fiscal deficits and monetary supply [9]. - The relationship between the dollar index and gold prices has been negative, with the dollar index dropping nearly 10 percentage points since 2025, benefiting gold prices [9]. - Economic and political uncertainties have increased the U.S. economic policy uncertainty index significantly since early 2025, impacting the dollar's credibility [11]. Group 3: Commodity Attributes - Central bank gold purchases have surged from 255 tons in 2020 to 1089 tons in 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 44%, increasing their share of total demand from 5% to 22% [15]. - Jewelry demand has decreased from approximately 50% before 2020 to 32% in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a shift in demand dynamics [15]. - Global gold reserves have increased significantly, with European countries showing high reserve ratios, contributing to upward pressure on gold prices [15]. Group 4: Financial Attributes - The traditional negative correlation between real interest rates and gold prices has weakened since 2021, as high inflation distorts real interest rates and enhances gold's anti-inflation properties [22]. - Real interest rates have increased by 213% during the current cycle, contrasting with previous cycles where they remained near zero or negative [38]. - The ratio of the S&P 500 to gold prices is approaching historical averages, suggesting that gold may be fully valued relative to equities, yet still has room for growth compared to previous cycles [22]. Group 5: Key Variables for Future Price Movements - The report identifies three critical variables that will influence future gold prices: geopolitical risks, growth in gold reserves, and changes in real interest rates [25][32]. - The geopolitical risk index has risen by 72% since 2019, reflecting heightened global tensions due to events like the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict [28][31]. - Global gold reserves have increased by 167% during the current cycle, a significant rise compared to previous periods, indicating a strategic shift among central banks [35].

Core Insights - The current market is in a period of intensive disclosure of the 2025 semi-annual reports of listed companies, with a notable presence of brokerage firms among the top shareholders [1][2] - As of August 26, 149 companies have reported the presence of brokerages among their top ten circulating shareholders, with 32 companies seeing increases in holdings by brokerage major shareholders in the second quarter [1][2] - The sectors favored by brokerages include chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and machinery equipment, indicating a positive outlook for these industries [1][4] Group 1: Brokerage Involvement - 32 companies received increased holdings from brokerage major shareholders in the second quarter, with notable increases exceeding one million shares for companies like Yuntianhua and Cangge Mining [2][4] - Cangge Mining saw significant increases from both Shenwan Hongyuan Securities and China Merchants Securities, with total holdings reaching 1811.81 million shares valued at 7.73 billion [3] - 81 companies had brokerages newly enter their top ten circulating shareholders in the second quarter, with holdings exceeding 11 million shares for several companies [3][4] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The chemical industry is highlighted for potential investment opportunities, with suggestions to focus on companies that may experience valuation and profit recovery [5] - The non-ferrous metals sector is expected to benefit from a potential rise in gold prices due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could lead to a new upward cycle for gold [6] - The machinery sector, particularly engineering machinery, is projected to perform well in the second half of the year due to favorable policies and an improving export market [6]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations are rising, significantly supporting the precious metals market [1] - The volatility in U.S. employment data has led to a near certainty of a rate cut in September, which will lower real interest rates and enhance the attractiveness of gold [1] - Central banks in emerging markets are actively purchasing gold, with China increasing its gold reserves for nine consecutive months, providing long-term support for gold prices [1] Group 2 - As of August 13, 2025, the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index (931238) rose by 1.33%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Jiangxi Copper (00358) up 6.30% and Zijin Mining (601899) up 3.65% [3] - The Gold Stock ETF (159322) increased by 1.46%, with a recent price of 1.25 yuan, and has shown a cumulative increase of 1.48% over the past week [3] - The Gold Stock ETF has a one-year net value increase of 30.95%, with a maximum monthly return of 16.59% since inception [3] Group 3 - The Gold Stock ETF has a Sharpe ratio of 1.25 over the past year, ranking it in the top 1/3 of comparable funds, indicating higher returns for the same level of risk [4] - The fund has experienced a relative drawdown of 3.00% year-to-date, with a recovery time of 7 days, the fastest among comparable funds [4] - The Gold Stock ETF closely tracks the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index, which includes 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales [4][5]