Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting, influenced by external pressures and economic indicators [2][4]. Fundamental Analysis - **Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations**: Market participants are almost fully pricing in a 25 basis point cut at the Fed's meeting on September 17, with about 4% betting on a 50 basis point cut. President Trump has publicly pressured Fed Chair Powell for larger cuts, reinforcing dovish market expectations [2]. - **Impact of Economic Data**: Despite a 0.6% month-on-month increase in August retail sales (above the expected 0.2%), weak labor market conditions and inflationary pressures from tariffs continue to undermine the dollar's credibility. The 10-year Treasury yield has slightly decreased to 4.028%, reflecting investor concerns about future economic slowdown [4]. Technical Analysis - **Daily Level**: Gold has shown a significant upward trend after a period of consolidation, with key support levels at 3665 and 3635. The market is currently in a bullish phase, with the potential for further gains if it breaks above recent highs [7]. - **Four-Hour Level**: Gold is in the third wave of an upward structure, with critical resistance at 3703 and support at 3678. A breakout above 3703 would indicate continued bullish momentum, while a drop below 3678 could signal a corrective phase [9][10].

Group 1 - The current spot gold price is trading at $3309.89 per ounce, an increase of $8.60 or 0.26% from the previous value [1] - The announcement of tariffs on 14 countries by the U.S. starting August 1 has raised concerns about the economy and inflation, impacting gold prices [1] - The strengthening of the U.S. dollar index, boosted by non-farm payroll data, and rising U.S. Treasury yields have increased the holding costs of gold [1] - Despite long-term benefits from central bank gold purchases, there has been a short-term reduction in gold ETF holdings [1] Group 2 - On the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands are slightly opening, with gold prices supported by the lower band, indicating initial bullish momentum [2] - Key resistance is at $3350 per ounce, while $3280 per ounce serves as critical support [2] - The MACD indicator shows a convergence of the death cross, with green bars narrowing, while the RSI indicates oversold conditions with a rebound in the 51-40 range, suggesting strong bullish momentum [2] Group 3 - In the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are expanding slightly, indicating a demand for volatility, with gold prices rebounding from the lower band [2] - The MACD shows a continuous convergence of the death cross, with narrowing green bars, and the RSI indicates a rebound in the 51-44 range, highlighting a clear demand for a bullish reversal [2] - The 1-hour chart shows an expanding Bollinger Band, with a clear short-term bullish rebound, and the MACD indicates a golden cross with increasing red bars [2] Group 4 - For bullish positions, aggressive traders can enter near the $3280 support level, while conservative traders may wait for a bounce at $3250 [4] - For bearish positions, aggressive traders can consider shorting near $3400 resistance, while conservative traders may wait for confirmation at $3450 [4] - The futures market shows varied trends, with the main contract for Shanghai gold initially declining before rebounding, and significant fluctuations in gold T+D [4]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing fluctuations, with prices showing a tendency to rebound after a recent decline, indicating potential trading opportunities and resistance levels to watch for [4][5]. Price Movements - As of May 19, the international gold price is at $3225.86 per ounce, reflecting a 0.74% increase from the opening price of $3216.39, with a daily high of $3249.02 and a low of $3205.04 [2]. - On May 16, gold closed at $3202.28 per ounce, down by $37.38 or 1.15%, with a daily high of $3251.82 and a low of $3153.99 [3]. Technical Analysis - The overall trend for gold last week was a downward movement, with a weekly high of $3292 and a low of $3120, closing at $3201, indicating a potential for further fluctuations within the range of $3300 to $3100 [4]. - The daily chart shows a "V-shaped" recovery after forming a bottom at $3120, with prices above $3200 and approaching the short-term resistance at $3265 [5]. - Key indicators suggest a bullish short-term outlook, with the 5-day moving average crossing above the 10-day moving average, and MACD showing a reduction in bearish momentum [5]. Trading Strategy - The current trading strategy focuses on a range-bound approach, with attention to resistance at $3300 and support at $3100, advising caution against chasing prices after significant movements [4][5]. - If gold maintains above $3200 and breaks through $3260, it may target resistance levels between $3300 and $3320; however, a drop below $3190 could lead to a retracement towards $3150 or even $3120 [5].

Market Overview - Gold prices experienced a slight rebound, trading around $3319.75, supported by bargain hunting after a nearly 2% decline on Thursday, where it hit a low of $3288.72 and closed at $3305.70 [1] - The decline in gold prices was influenced by President Trump's announcement of a trade agreement with the UK, which raised hopes for similar agreements with other countries, easing market tensions and reducing safe-haven demand for gold [1] - The rise in the US dollar, US stocks, and bond yields also contributed to the downward pressure on gold prices [1] Technical Analysis - The US dollar index surged above 100, indirectly pressuring gold prices, which saw a significant drop after reaching $3414.5, eventually touching a low of $3288.5 before rebounding to close at $3305 [3] - Technical indicators such as TRIX and MACD are showing bearish signals, suggesting a potential further decline in gold prices, with expectations that it may drop below $3200 in the near term [3] - On a four-hour chart, gold fell below $3300 to $3274.6, currently hovering around the 60-day moving average of $3306, with bearish momentum indicated by the moving averages and technical indicators [3] Trading Recommendations - A trading strategy suggests entering short positions around $3344-$3347, with a stop loss at $3352 and a target profit range of $3300-$3280 [5]

Group 1: Market Overview - Gold prices opened higher around 3438 but quickly fell, reaching a low of approximately 3360 before rebounding, ultimately closing within the 3360-3398 range, forming a bearish candlestick [2] - The market exhibited strong bullish momentum at the beginning of the week, but the sudden downturn on Wednesday disrupted the previous upward trend [4] Group 2: Economic Factors - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, indicating rising risks of inflation and unemployment, which adds uncertainty to the economic outlook amid ongoing trade tensions [3] - The Trump administration is in negotiations with major trade partners, but no significant progress has been reported, with Trump unwilling to retract the announced 145% tariffs [3] - The EU plans to announce further retaliatory measures against U.S. tariffs if trade negotiations fail [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The 5-day and 10-day moving averages have formed a golden cross, suggesting potential upward momentum in the short term, with key support levels at 3349, 3325, and 3310 [4] - The upper resistance level is identified at 3438; failure to break this level may lead to a consolidation phase or a potential downward adjustment [4] - In a four-hour analysis, the current upward movement from 3222 is likely in the third wave of a five-wave structure, with critical support levels at 3222 and 3202 [5]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices are experiencing upward momentum, driven by a weaker dollar and increased demand for safe-haven assets, with significant fluctuations observed in recent trading sessions [4][5]. Group 1: Current Market Performance - As of May 6, international gold is trading at $3,356.65 per ounce, reflecting a 0.67% increase from the previous session [3]. - The trading session opened at $3,335.94 per ounce, with a high of $3,386.59 and a low of $3,323.14 [3][4]. Group 2: Recent Trends and Influences - On May 5, gold prices surged nearly 3%, closing at $3,333.73 per ounce, which is an increase of nearly $100 compared to the previous Friday's closing price [4]. - The market is currently awaiting the Federal Reserve's policy decision later this week, which may further influence gold prices [4]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The gold market showed strong upward movement, with the price initially opening at $3,242.70, then experiencing a low of $3,237.10 before rallying to a high of $3,337.80 [5]. - The weekly chart indicates a bullish outlook, with the price recovering from previous losses and suggesting potential targets of $3,418, while support is seen at the 5-week moving average [6]. - The daily chart reflects increased bullish momentum, with expectations of further upward movement towards the $3,500 mark, contingent on maintaining support from short-term moving averages [6].