Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates a significant upward trend in gold prices since 2025, driven by factors such as de-dollarization, central bank gold purchases, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][9]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - International spot gold prices have risen from approximately $2,650 per ounce to a peak of $4,381 per ounce, setting new historical highs [1]. - The correlation between gold prices and traditional indicators like the US dollar and real interest rates has weakened, necessitating a refinement of the pricing framework for gold [1][2]. Group 2: Demand Dynamics - The demand for gold is primarily driven by three components: private consumption, private investment (including ETF demand), and official purchases by central banks [2]. - Since 2023, there has been a notable shift in the demand structure for gold, with increased contributions from global central bank purchases and private investment demand in Asia, particularly China [2][3]. Group 3: Central Bank Purchases - Central bank gold purchases are becoming a long-term trend, with demand expected to remain high due to the weakening of the US dollar's credit and the increasing need for asset diversification [3]. - Gold has surpassed the euro to become the second-largest reserve asset for central banks globally, with its share in official reserves projected to reach 20% by 2024 [3]. Group 4: Interest Rate Expectations - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the second half of 2025 is anticipated to further support gold price increases, as lower nominal and real interest rates typically boost gold's appeal [9].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is currently experiencing a slight downward trend, with prices fluctuating around $4,127.63 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 0.13% [1]. Group 1: Gold Supply and Demand - Gold production is stable, with a total above-ground gold supply projected to reach 216,000 tons by 2024, and a compound annual growth rate of 1.5% from 1960 to 2024 [2]. - The main demand drivers for gold are central bank purchases, investment, and jewelry manufacturing, with central bank purchases becoming a key driver in recent years [2]. - In 2024, the demand structure is expected to consist of 24% from central banks, 26% from investments, and 44% from jewelry manufacturing, with the remainder from technology [2]. - Central bank gold purchases increased from 450 tons in 2021 to 1,089 tons in 2024, while investment demand rose from 1,107 tons to 1,181 tons during the same period [2]. - However, central bank purchases have started to decline as gold prices rise, with a 13% year-on-year decrease in the first three quarters of 2025 [2]. Group 2: Market Trends and Technical Analysis - The gold market exhibited significant volatility recently, with prices initially rising before facing resistance around the 4,100 mark, then rebounding from a strong support level at 4,087 [4]. - The market is expected to continue its upward trend, with key focus areas being the upper line and upper channel region on the daily chart [4]. - Current support levels for gold are concentrated around 4,105 and 4,117 [5].