Group 1: Domestic Policy Developments - The phone call between President Xi Jinping and President Trump on June 5 aimed to recalibrate the direction of China-US relations, emphasizing the importance of dialogue and cooperation to resolve economic issues [10][11][12] - Premier Li Qiang's conversation with Canadian Prime Minister Carney on June 6 highlighted the desire to improve China-Canada relations, focusing on mutual opportunities rather than threats [12][13] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The OECD's latest economic outlook report predicts global economic growth rates of 2.9% for both 2025 and 2026, a downward revision from previous forecasts due to increased trade barriers and economic policy uncertainties [15][22] - The report indicates that the US economy is expected to grow by 1.6% and 1.5% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with inflation rates projected to be 3.2% and 2.8% for the same years [15][21] Group 3: Equity Market Analysis - Following the easing of trade tensions due to the US-China dialogue, major A-share indices rebounded, with the ChiNext and Shenzhen Composite Index rising by 2.3% and 1.8%, respectively [24] - The net inflow of southbound funds reached 13.681 billion yuan during the week, indicating positive market sentiment [24] Group 4: Fixed Income Market Analysis - The central bank's net withdrawal of 671.7 billion yuan since June has contributed to a more relaxed liquidity environment, with the DR007 rate remaining below 1.6% [46] - The ten-year government bond yield was recorded at 1.66% as of June 6, reflecting stable interest rates in the fixed income market [46] Group 5: Commodity Market Insights - The commodity market saw fluctuations, with non-ferrous metals rebounding and crude oil prices continuing to rise, while pork prices experienced a decline [4] - The IEA has predicted a decline in global oil demand, which may impact related sectors [4] Group 6: Financial Policy Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission approved Central Huijin's control over eight companies, enhancing its influence in the financial sector [25] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange held a meeting focused on high dividend returns and enhancing the value of listed companies, indicating a push for improved corporate governance [26][27]

Group 1: US Dollar - The Federal Reserve's Logan stated that the Fed can remain patient and is ready to respond when necessary [2] - US manufacturing activity shrank for the fourth consecutive month in May, with trade-related data highlighting the impact of tariffs [2] - OECD lowered the US GDP forecast for 2025 from 2.2% to 1.6% and for 2026 from 1.6% to 1.5%, expecting no changes in Fed interest rates this year [2] Group 2: Non-USD Major Currencies - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 454.5 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from previous levels [3] - The Reserve Bank of Australia's meeting minutes indicated that the committee does not see the need for a 50 basis point rate cut, noting that US tariffs have not yet impacted the Australian economy [3] - Bank of Japan Governor Ueda stated there are currently no preset plans for interest rate hikes, which will only be considered if the economy and prices rise again; a bond reduction plan will be reviewed in the next meeting [3] - Japan's Ministry of Finance issued approximately 2.6 trillion yen in 10-year government bonds, with a bid-to-cover ratio of about 3.66, the highest in nearly a year, leading to a rise in medium to long-term bond prices [3] Group 3: Other Economic Indicators - The OECD projected global economic growth rates of 2.9% for both 2025 and 2026, down by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively from the March forecast [4]

Core Insights - The short-term effects of tariffs may be anti-inflationary [1] - The Eurozone benefits from a flow of safe-haven funds [1] - Tariffs could lead to a persistent reduction in global economic growth [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The market digests the news of tariff mitigation and domestic policy benefits, which will drive some bargain - hunting in the market. However, the new US tariffs are in contradiction, economic data is mixed, and global demand concerns remain. With stable supply, a tail - end of the consumption peak season but still resilient demand, and the pre - May Day stocking period, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate with a positive bias, testing the pressure at the 20,000 yuan mark [2][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - LME aluminum 3 - month price rose from 2385 yuan/ton on April 17, 2025, to 2459.5 yuan/ton on April 24, 2025, an increase of 74.5 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum continuous - three price rose from 19565 dollars/ton to 19815 dollars/ton, an increase of 250 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio decreased from 8.2 to 8.1. LME aluminum inventory decreased from 439325 tons to 423575 tons. SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased from 95909 tons to 76763 tons. Aluminum ingot social inventory decreased from 68.9 tons to 65.8 tons, and domestic mainstream consumption area aluminum rod inventory decreased by 3.14 tons [3] 3.2 Market Review - The weekly average price of Yangtze River spot in the spot market was 19948 yuan/ton, an increase of 202 yuan/ton compared with last week; the weekly average price of Nanchu spot was 19904 yuan/ton, an increase of 168 yuan/ton compared with last week [4] 3.3 Market Outlook - Similar to the core view, the market digests tariff mitigation and policy benefits, but there are still concerns. Fundamentally, supply is stable, consumption is in the tail - end of the peak season with some resilience. During the pre - May Day stocking period, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate with a positive bias [7] 3.4 Industry News - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued a notice on carbon emission trading market work, requiring tasks and time limits for key emission units in industries such as aluminum smelting. The US President will exempt some tariffs on automobile manufacturers, steel, and aluminum, and the Wall Street Journal reported that Chinese tariffs may drop to 50% - 65%. From January to March 2025, the national new photovoltaic installed capacity was 59.71GW, a year - on - year increase of 30.5% [8] 3.5 Related Charts - The report provides 10 charts including LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous - three price trends, Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, etc., which can be used for further analysis of the aluminum market [9][10][13]

能源化工 通惠期货•研发产品系列 原油、燃料油日报 2025 年 4 月 28 日 星期一 地缘局势尚无明显好转，油价维持窄幅震荡 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 美伊第三轮谈判结束，伊朗外长称美伊之间有一些分歧非常严重，但特朗普政府 官员则宣称会议是"积极且富有成效的"。内盘，4 月 25 日 SC 主力合约涨幅 1.14%， 报 496.1 元/桶；夜盘 SC 收跌于 492.6 元/桶。外盘，4 月 25 日 WTI 收涨 0.40 美元/ 桶，报 63.17 美元/桶；Brent 收涨 0.18 美元/桶，报 65.83 美元/桶。 宏观面，特朗普政府的关税政策正从"全面施压"转向"选择性缓和"，中美博 弈进入战略相持阶段，虽然特朗普主动示好，表示将大幅下调对中国关税，并反复强 调正在积极跟中国就关税进行谈判，当地时间 25 日，美国总统特朗普对记者表示，除 非中国做出实质性让步，否则不会取消对华加征的关税。对此，中方回应双方并 ...