Global Economic Outlook - The global economic growth rate is expected to remain stable, with a slight slowdown from 2.8% in 2025 to 2.7% in 2026, influenced by geopolitical tensions and trade fragmentation [4] - Strong investment in artificial intelligence is anticipated to support investment and trade growth over the next two years [2][4] Trade Dynamics - Global goods and services trade is projected to grow by 3.8% in 2025, accelerating from 3.0% in 2024, but is expected to slow to 2.0% in 2026 due to various factors including reduced consumer spending in the U.S. [5] - Tariff uncertainties have decreased, yet trade policies and geopolitical risks continue to pose challenges [5] Asian Export Resilience - Despite fluctuations in tariff risks, Asia's overall export performance has exceeded expectations, remaining stronger than other regions [6] - The export growth rate in Asia is expected to slow in 2026 but will still outperform the global average [7] China's Economic Strategy - In 2026, China will focus on expanding domestic demand as a key policy priority, with structural reforms and increased openness to foreign investment [2][8] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes improving the household consumption rate, which was 39.9% in 2024, as a critical goal for high-quality development [8] Investment and Fiscal Policies - Fixed asset investment is expected to recover, particularly in infrastructure, supported by new policy financial tools [9] - The fiscal deficit target for China in 2026 is likely to remain at 4%, with local government bonds issued to support consumption and major projects [9] Innovation and Competitiveness - Innovation capability is projected to become a core advantage for China, attracting foreign investment and enhancing service trade exports [12] - The government aims to regulate supply-side competition to ensure efficient resource allocation and promote fair competition [10][11]

从贸易角度看，汇丰预计，2025年全球货物和服务贸易出口规模或录得3.8%的增速，较2024年3.0%的 增速有所加快。展望2026年，尽管关税不确定性较最高峰期已经有所减弱，但由于前期"抢出口"带来的 透支效应，美国个人消费支出增速预计温和放缓，叠加贸易政策与地缘政治风险仍存等因素的影响， 2026年全球贸易出口的增速预计将放缓至2.0%。 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 陈佳怡）汇丰近日发布2026年经济展望。汇丰预计，2025年全球经济增速 或录得2.8%，2026年增速亦可能保持稳定，仅略微放缓至2.7%。 汇丰银行环球投资研究首席亚洲经济学家兼亚洲联席主管范力民（Frederic Neumann）表示，一方面， 地缘政治矛盾、贸易碎片化、劳动力增长放缓等因素将使得增长潜力承压。另一方面，由人工智能基础 设施领域的结构性部署、主要国家财政扩张所带来的增长动能，或在不同程度上抵消上述提到的不利因 素。其中，预计人工智能领域的投资将保持强劲，并为未来两年全球范围内的投资和贸易增长提供一定 支撑。 汇丰近日发布2026年经济展望。汇丰预计，2025年全球经济增速或录得2.8%，2026年增速亦可能保持 稳定，仅略 ...

北京时间周三(12月3日)亚盘时段，美元指数交投于99.20附近，现货白银今日开盘于58.46美元/盎司，目 前交投于58.30美元/盎司附近，白银t+d交投于13730元/千克附近，沪银主力交投于13760元/千克附近。 今日基本面关注美国11月ADP就业人数、美国9月进口物价指数月率、美国9月工业产出月率、美国11月 标普全球服务业PMI终值以及美国11月ISM非制造业PMI。 周二(12月2日)美元指数下跌0.09%，收报99.319，现货白银收报58.44美元/盎司，上涨0.84%，因投资者 获利了结，现货黄金美盘跳水，最终收跌，现货白银回调后涨势不改：现货黄金下跌0.59%，报4205.38 美元/盎司，现货铂金收跌1.11%，报1638.45美元/盎司；现货钯金收涨2.19%，至1456.00元/盎司。 【最新数据一览】 【要闻速递】 1、特朗普将于明年初宣布美联储主席人选，积极暗示哈塞特为下任美联储主席。 12月2日白银ETF持仓15863.15吨，较前一交易日上涨60.79吨； 12月2日延期补偿费支付方向：Ag(T+D)--空付多。 2、普京威胁切断乌克兰海上通道，誓言将加强打击乌设施与船只 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 12 月 03 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 观望不追高 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间短线交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议反弹至高位多单减仓 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 多单持有，新开仓谨慎 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 偏强震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡上行 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡偏弱 | | ...

12月3日资讯分享 周二，因投资者获利了结，现货黄金美盘跳水，最终收跌0.59%，报4207.52美元/盎司；现货白银回调 后涨势不改，最终收涨0.86%，报58.49美元/盎司。 交易商评估乌克兰无人机袭击俄罗斯能源设施、委内瑞拉局势、以及美国燃料库存前景不一所带来的风 险，国际油价在接近两周高点的位置回调。WTI原油最终收跌1.51%，报58.61美元/桶；布伦特原油最终 收跌1.37%，报62.45美元/桶。 川普将于明年初宣布美联储主席人选，积极暗示哈塞特为下任美联储主席。 俄威胁切断乌克兰海上通道，誓言将加强打击乌设施与船只；称无法接受欧洲对俄乌"和平计划"的修 改，如果欧洲想开战，俄罗斯现在准备好了；俄总统与美特使举行会议，时长近5个小时。俄方称，会 晤富有成效，双方同意不透露此次谈判的实质内容。 经合组织维持今明两年全球经济增速预期，预计主要经济体降息周期将于明年结束。 德商银行：预计未来一年内金价将上涨至4400美元/盎司，银价有望达到59美元/盎司。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The OECD's latest economic outlook report forecasts global economic growth rates of 3.2% for this year and 2.9% for next year, consistent with predictions made in September [1] Group 1: Economic Growth Drivers - Expansionary macroeconomic policies, positive market expectations for new technologies, and growth in trade and investment driven by artificial intelligence are supporting global demand [1] Group 2: Potential Risks - The report warns of accumulating potential risks to the global economy, including the escalation of trade protectionism that could severely damage global supply chains and output [1] - Overvaluation of assets based on optimistic expectations surrounding artificial intelligence development may lead to sudden corrections [1] - Fiscal vulnerabilities in various countries could hinder economic growth [1]

经济合作与发展组织（经合组织）2日发布最新经济展望报告，预计今明两年全球经济增速分别为3.2% 和2.9%，与今年9月预测一致。 （文章来源：新华网） 报告同时警告，全球经济的潜在风险正在累积：贸易保护主义升级可能严重损害全球供应链和产出，基 于人工智能发展乐观预期的资产高估值可能突然回调，各国财政脆弱性可能阻碍经济增长。 报告认为，扩张性的宏观政策导向、市场对新技术的积极预期，以及人工智能相关领域带动的贸易和投 资增长，共同支撑了全球需求。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its global economic growth forecast for 2023 to 3.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous estimate in July, while maintaining the 2026 growth forecast at 3.1% [1] Economic Growth Projections - Developed economies are expected to grow at 1.6% for both 2023 and 2024 [1] - The United States is projected to have economic growth rates of 2.0% in 2023 and 2.1% in 2024, up by 0.1 percentage points from the July forecast [1] - Emerging markets and developing economies are forecasted to grow at 4.2% in 2023 and 4.0% in 2024 [1] - The IMF maintains its growth forecast for China at 4.8% for 2023 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) maintains its forecast for China's economic growth at 4.8% for this year, reflecting a stable outlook amidst global economic conditions [1] Global Economic Outlook - The IMF projects global economic growth at 3.2% for this year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the July forecast [1] - The growth rate for 2026 is expected to remain at 3.1%, unchanged from previous estimates [1] Developed Economies - Growth for developed economies is forecasted at 1.6% for both this year and next [1] - The United States is expected to see economic growth of 2.0% this year and 2.1% next year, with an upward revision of 0.1 percentage points from the July forecast [1] Emerging Markets and Developing Economies - Emerging markets and developing economies are projected to grow at rates of 4.2% and 4.0% for this year and next, respectively [1]

Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a slowdown in global economic growth to 3.2% in 2025 and further to 3.1% in 2026, primarily driven by rising tariffs from the United States [1] - The significant increase in U.S. tariffs since April 2025 has created a major source of global uncertainty, with effective tariff rates for most countries falling between 10% and 20% due to trade agreements, yet overall tariff levels remain substantially higher than in 2024 [1] - Short-term economic growth has been supported by preemptive purchasing and investment behaviors from businesses and households, maintaining a global growth rate of approximately 3.5% in the first half of the year, but this resilience is viewed as a temporary buffer rather than a fundamental improvement [1] Economic Projections - The IMF forecasts that the economic growth rate for the United States will be 2.0% in 2025, while the Eurozone is expected to grow at 1.2% [1]