Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its global economic growth forecast for 2023 to 3.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous estimate in July, while maintaining the 2026 growth forecast at 3.1% [1] Economic Growth Projections - Developed economies are expected to grow at 1.6% for both 2023 and 2024 [1] - The United States is projected to have economic growth rates of 2.0% in 2023 and 2.1% in 2024, up by 0.1 percentage points from the July forecast [1] - Emerging markets and developing economies are forecasted to grow at 4.2% in 2023 and 4.0% in 2024 [1] - The IMF maintains its growth forecast for China at 4.8% for 2023 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) maintains its forecast for China's economic growth at 4.8% for this year, reflecting a stable outlook amidst global economic conditions [1] Global Economic Outlook - The IMF projects global economic growth at 3.2% for this year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the July forecast [1] - The growth rate for 2026 is expected to remain at 3.1%, unchanged from previous estimates [1] Developed Economies - Growth for developed economies is forecasted at 1.6% for both this year and next [1] - The United States is expected to see economic growth of 2.0% this year and 2.1% next year, with an upward revision of 0.1 percentage points from the July forecast [1] Emerging Markets and Developing Economies - Emerging markets and developing economies are projected to grow at rates of 4.2% and 4.0% for this year and next, respectively [1]

Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a slowdown in global economic growth to 3.2% in 2025 and further to 3.1% in 2026, primarily driven by rising tariffs from the United States [1] - The significant increase in U.S. tariffs since April 2025 has created a major source of global uncertainty, with effective tariff rates for most countries falling between 10% and 20% due to trade agreements, yet overall tariff levels remain substantially higher than in 2024 [1] - Short-term economic growth has been supported by preemptive purchasing and investment behaviors from businesses and households, maintaining a global growth rate of approximately 3.5% in the first half of the year, but this resilience is viewed as a temporary buffer rather than a fundamental improvement [1] Economic Projections - The IMF forecasts that the economic growth rate for the United States will be 2.0% in 2025, while the Eurozone is expected to grow at 1.2% [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View - After the holiday, the supply of bottle chips increased, downstream factories mainly replenished stocks rigidly, and the market was cautious about the later - stage demand. The export volume of bottle chips decreased in August. With the decline of crude oil prices at night, the price of bottle chips fluctuated weakly following the raw material end, and the reference range of the main contract was 5,650 - 5,850 yuan/ton. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see or sell short on rallies [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [行情复盘] - The price of the PR2512 contract of bottle chips rose by 2 yuan to 5,728 yuan/ton yesterday. The price of East China water - grade bottle chips fell by 10 yuan to 5,740 yuan/ton, and the price of South China bottle chips fell by 10 yuan to 5,820 yuan/ton. In terms of positions, long positions increased by 3,563 lots to 50,500 lots, and short positions increased by 5,075 lots to 49,300 lots [1]. [重要资讯] - **Supply, cost, and profit**: The domestic polyester bottle chip output was 331,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,300 tons. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of domestic polyester bottle chips was 72.5%, a week - on - week increase of 4.4%. The production cost of polyester bottle chips was 5,351 yuan, an increase of 14.2 yuan/ton. The weekly production gross profit of polyester bottle chips was - 185 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4 yuan/ton [1]. - **Export volume**: In August 2025, China's polyester bottle chip exports were 520,700 tons, a decrease of 58,800 tons from the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 4.3414 million tons [1]. - **Crude oil prices**: After the cease - fire agreement between Palestine and Israel, the international oil prices fell. The NYMEX crude oil futures contract 11 dropped by 1.04 dollars/barrel to 61.51 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 1.66%. The ICE Brent crude oil futures contract 12 dropped by 1.03 dollars/barrel to 65.22 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 1.55%. The INE crude oil futures contract 2511 dropped by 11.8 to 468.7 yuan/barrel, and dropped by 4.5 to 464.2 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Economic outlook**: The OECD released a mid - term economic outlook report on the 23rd, predicting that the global economic growth rate in 2025 would be 3.2%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the forecast in June this year; the global economic growth rate in 2026 would slow down to 2.9%, the same as the forecast in June [1]. [市场逻辑] - After the holiday, the supply of bottle chips increased, downstream factories mainly replenished stocks rigidly, and the market was cautious about the later - stage demand. The export volume of bottle chips decreased in August. With the decline of crude oil prices at night, the price of bottle chips fluctuated weakly following the raw material end, and the reference range of the main contract was 5,650 - 5,850 yuan/ton [1]. [交易策略] - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see or sell short on rallies [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the energy and chemical sector (specifically bottle chips) is "Oscillating weakly" [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The price of bottle chips is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, following the raw material end. The reference range for the main contract is 5700 - 5900 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - The futures price of bottle chips PR2511 dropped 60 yuan to 5738 yuan/ton in the overnight session on Monday. The position of the main contract was 18,600 lots, a decrease of 1547 lots. The price of water - grade bottle chips in the East China market remained stable at 5780 yuan/ton, and in the South China market at 5860 yuan/ton [3] Important Information - Supply and cost - profit: The domestic polyester bottle chip production was 323,500 tons, a decrease of 3900 tons from the previous week. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic polyester bottle chips was 70.1%, a decrease of 1.5%. The production cost of polyester bottle chips was 5337 yuan, a decrease of 1.5%. The weekly production gross profit of polyester bottle chips was - 189 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton from the previous week [3] - In August 2025, China's polyester bottle chip exports were 520,700 tons, a decrease of 58,800 tons from the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 4.3414 million tons [3] - OPEC+ plans to continue the production - increasing pace in November, and the crude oil exports from the Kurdish region of Iraq have resumed, leading to a decline in international oil prices. The NYMEX crude oil futures contract 11 dropped 2.27 dollars/barrel to 63.45 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 3.45%. The ICE Brent crude oil futures contract 11 dropped 2.16 dollars/barrel to 67.97 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 3.08%. The China INE crude oil futures contract 2511 rose 5.4 to 494.5 yuan/ton, and then dropped 14.2 to 480.3 yuan/ton in the overnight session [3] - The OECD released a mid - term economic outlook report on the 23rd, predicting that the global economic growth rate in 2025 will be 3.2%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the forecast in June this year; the global economic growth rate in 2026 will slow down to 2.9%, the same as the June forecast [3] Market Logic - Affected by the typhoon weather in South China, the supply of bottle chips decreased slightly this week. The downstream market made rigid restocking purchases, and the market was cautious about the future demand. The export volume of bottle chips decreased in August. With the sharp decline in overnight crude oil prices, the short - term price of bottle chips will oscillate weakly following the raw material end [3] Trading Strategy - As the holiday approaches, investors are advised to hold an empty position or use the option double - buy strategy to bet on increased volatility [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bottle chip in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating with a bullish bias" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the impact of typhoon weather in South China, the supply of bottle chips decreased slightly this week. Downstream markets made rigid restocking purchases, but the market was cautious about future demand expectations. The export volume of bottle chips decreased in August. With the continuous rebound of crude oil prices under geopolitical conflicts, the short - term price of bottle chips will fluctuate following the raw material end. The reference range for the main contract is 5750 - 6000 yuan/ton. Near the holiday, it is recommended to hold an empty position or a light long - position in the short term [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Market Review - On the night of Friday, the futures price of bottle chip PR2511 rose by 2 yuan to 5820 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract was 27,700 lots, a decrease of 1185 lots. The price of water - grade bottle chips in the East China market remained stable at 5780 yuan/ton, and the price of bottle chips in the South China market remained stable at 5860 yuan/ton [1] Important Information - In terms of supply, cost, and profit, the domestic polyester bottle chip production was 323,500 tons, a decrease of 3900 tons compared with the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of domestic polyester bottle chips was 70.1%, a decrease of 1.5% compared with the previous week. The production cost of polyester bottle chips was 5337 yuan, a decrease of 1.5%. The weekly production gross profit of polyester bottle chips was - 189 yuan/ton, a increase of 7 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [1] - In August 2025, China exported 520,700 tons of polyester bottle chips, a decrease of 58,800 tons compared with the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 4.3414 million tons [1] - The intensity of the Russia - Ukraine conflict has recently increased, and the market is worried about the intensification of potential supply risks, leading to a rise in international oil prices. The NYMEX crude oil futures contract 11 rose by 0.74 dollars to 65.72 dollars/barrel, a increase of 1.14% compared with the previous week. The ICE Brent crude oil futures contract 11 rose by 0.71 dollars to 70.13 dollars/barrel, a increase of 1.02% compared with the previous week. The China INE crude oil futures contract 2511 rose by 0.2 to 489.1 yuan/ton, and rose by 5.9 to 495 yuan/ton at night [1] - The OECD released a mid - term economic outlook report on the 23rd, predicting that the global economic growth rate in 2025 will be 3.2%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared with the forecast in June this year; the global economic growth rate will slow down to 2.9% in 2026, the same as the forecast in June [1] Market Logic - Affected by the typhoon in South China, the supply of bottle chips decreased slightly this week. Downstream markets made rigid restocking purchases, but the market was cautious about future demand expectations. The export volume of bottle chips decreased in August. With the continuous rebound of crude oil prices under geopolitical conflicts, the short - term price of bottle chips will fluctuate following the raw material end [1] Trading Strategy - Near the holiday, it is recommended to hold an empty position or a light long - position in the short term [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the energy and chemical industry (specifically bottle chips) is "oscillating bullish" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply of bottle chips decreased slightly this week, downstream market purchases were for rigid restocking, and the market was cautious about the later demand. The export volume of bottle chips decreased month - on - month in August. Crude oil prices rebounded from a low level this week, and the short - term price of bottle chips will oscillate and rebound following the raw material end. The reference range for the main contract is 5700 - 5950 yuan/ton. Short - term long operations are recommended [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday night, the futures price of bottle chips PR2511 rose 42 yuan to 5798 yuan/ton. The open interest of the main contract was 31,700 lots, an increase of 159 lots. The price of water - grade bottle chips in the East China market rose 40 yuan to 5750 yuan/ton, and the price of bottle chips in the South China market rose 30 yuan to 5830 yuan/ton [1] Important Information - In terms of supply, cost, and profit, the domestic polyester bottle chip output was 327,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.28. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of domestic polyester bottle chips was 71.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6. The production cost of polyester bottle chips was 5422 yuan, a decrease of 2.1%. The weekly production gross profit of polyester bottle chips was - 196 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 86 yuan/ton [1] - In August 2025, China's polyester bottle chip exports were 520,700 tons, a decrease of 58,800 tons from the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 4.3414 million tons [1] - The continuation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict caused potential supply risks, and the decline in US commercial crude oil inventories led to a rise in international oil prices. The NYMEX crude oil futures contract 11 rose 1.58 dollars/barrel to 64.99 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 2.49%. The ICE Brent crude oil futures contract 11 rose 1.68 dollars/barrel to 69.31 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 2.48%. The China INE crude oil futures contract 2511 rose 7.0 to 482.3 yuan/barrel, and rose 7.4 to 489.7 yuan/barrel at night [1] - The OECD released a mid - term economic outlook report on the 23rd, predicting that the global economic growth rate in 2025 will be 3.2%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the forecast in June this year. The global economic growth rate will slow down to 2.9% in 2026, the same as the June forecast [1] Market Logic - This week, the supply of bottle chips decreased slightly, downstream market purchases were for rigid restocking, and the market was cautious about the later demand. The export volume of bottle chips decreased month - on - month in August. Crude oil prices rebounded from a low level this week, and the short - term price of bottle chips will oscillate and rebound following the raw material end. The reference range for the main contract is 5700 - 5950 yuan/ton [1] Trading Strategy - Short - term long operations are recommended [1]

Group 1: Economic Data - In August, the total social electricity consumption reached 1015.4 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5%. The national manufacturing electricity consumption in the same month increased by 5.5% year-on-year, the highest this year [2] - The OECD's mid-term outlook report predicts that the global economic growth rate in 2025 will be 3.2%, an upward revision of 0.3 percentage points from the June forecast, and the 2026 forecast remains at 2.9%. The economic growth forecasts of the US, Eurozone, Japan, and the UK for this year have been slightly raised [2] - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in September was 52, in line with expectations, and the final value in August was 53. The preliminary value of the Services PMI was 53.9, and the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 53.6, both lower than expected and at a three-month low [2] - In September, the arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained high. The soybean crushing volume of major oil mills in the country has remained above 2.3 million tons for four consecutive weeks, and this week's crushing volume is expected to be around 2.4 million tons. As of September 19, the soybean meal inventory of major oil mills has exceeded 1.2 million tons, and it is expected to rise above 1.25 million tons by the end of September [2] Group 2: Project News - The first-phase lithium carbonate project of Luopu Xihai New Energy Materials Co., Ltd. was put into operation. The total investment of the project is 4.6 billion yuan. After the first phase reaches full production, it can process 300,000 tons of lithium concentrate annually and produce 30,000 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate [3] Group 3: Plate Performance - Key focus: urea, Shanghai copper, soybean meal, crude oil, plastic [4] - Night trading performance: non-metallic building materials 2.58%, precious metals 32.68%, oilseeds 10.34%, soft commodities 2.53%, non-ferrous metals 18.74%, coal, coke, steel, and minerals 13.97%, energy 3.01%, chemicals 11.88%, grains 1.05%, agricultural and sideline products 3.23% [4] Group 4: Plate Position - The chart shows the position changes of commodity futures plates in the past five days [6] Group 5: Performance of Major Asset Classes | Category | Name | Daily Change (%) | Monthly Change (%) | Year-to-Date Change (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index, SSE 50 | -0.18, -0.09 | -0.94, -1.91 | 14.02, 8.74 | | | CSI 300 | -0.06 | 0.51 | 14.86 | | | CSI 500 | -0.61 | 1.94 | 25.41 | | | S&P 500 | -0.55 | 3.04 | 13.18 | | | Hang Seng Index | -0.70 | 4.31 | 30.40 | | | German DAX | 0.36 | -1.22 | 18.60 | | | Nikkei 225 | 0.00 | 6.50 | 14.03 | | | UK FTSE 100 | -0.04 | 0.39 | 12.85 | | Fixed Income | 10-year Treasury Bond Futures | -0.21 | -0.09 | -1.11 | | | 5-year Treasury Bond Futures | -0.13 | 0.10 | -0.86 | | | 2-year Treasury Bond Futures | -0.05 | -0.07 | -0.61 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 0.00 | -1.52 | 0.35 | | | WTI Crude Oil | 2.22 | -0.61 | -11.48 | | | London Spot Gold | 0.46 | 9.17 | 43.40 | | | LME Copper | 0.21 | 0.92 | 13.80 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 0.94 | 11.20 | 28.57 | | Other | US Dollar Index | -0.08 | -0.63 | -10.37 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | 4.82 | -7.20 | [8]

Economic Data - The US current account deficit for Q2 2023 is reported at $251.3 billion, marking the smallest deficit since Q3 2023 [4] - The preliminary manufacturing PMI for the US in September is 52, aligning with expectations [4] - The Eurozone's preliminary manufacturing PMI for September is 49.5, falling below the growth threshold [4] - The OECD forecasts a global economic growth rate of 3.2% for 2025, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the June 2023 estimate [4] Market Performance - The Nasdaq index closed at 22,573.47, down 0.95% [5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 46,292.78, down 0.19% [5] - The S&P 500 index closed at 6,656.92, down 0.55% [5] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,159.12, down 0.70% [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,821.83, down 0.18% [5] Commodity and Currency Trends - The price of Brent crude oil is reported at $67.79, up 1.83% [5] - The London gold spot price is $3,762.99, up 0.46% [5] - The US dollar index stands at 97.24, down 0.08% [5] - The exchange rate for USD to CNY (CFETS) is 7.11, down 0.02% [5] Technology Sector Insights - Apple is experiencing a surge in demand for the iPhone 17, indicating significant upgrade potential globally [4] - TSMC's 2nm process pricing has increased by at least 50% compared to the 3nm process [4]

Group 1 - The OECD has released its mid-term economic outlook report, projecting a global economic growth rate of 3.2% for 2025, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the forecast made in June of this year [1] - For 2026, the global economic growth rate is expected to slow down to 2.9%, which remains unchanged from the June forecast [1]