贵金属日报 2025-12-15 贵金属 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 沪金涨 0.84 %，报 972.76 元/克，沪银跌 2.28 %，报 14437.00 元/千克；COMEX 金报 4334.40 美元/盎司，COMEX 银报 62.16 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率报 4.19%，美元指数报 98.38 ； 联储超预期的鸽派表态令白银价格表现强势，但议息会议短期的利多出尽也意味着白银本身的 涨势已进入加速阶段：回顾历史上的行情走势，国际银价往往在宽松货币政策周期中表现强势。 本次议息会议的宽松表态在超预期的同时，也显示了明年上半年联储进一步宽松幅度的有限。 当前点阵图仅显示一次降息操作，这意味着在明年 5 月鲍威尔正式卸任前的三次议息会议中很 可能仅存在一次降息，同时下一次点阵图的公布将在明年三月份议息会议。与此同时，鲍威尔 在提及经济展望报告的时候认为受到财政政策的支持、AI 支出的延续以及消费者消费的影响 下，明年美国经济预测基准将 ...

Group 1 - The potential government shutdown is expected to begin on October 1, with a 74% probability according to Polymarket data, raising concerns in the market [1] - The upcoming non-farm payroll report for September, a key economic indicator, may be delayed due to the shutdown, impacting investors' ability to assess economic health and Federal Reserve policy [2][3] - Historical patterns suggest that markets may exhibit resilience during government shutdowns, as seen in 2013 and late 2018, where declines were often reversed as attention shifted to other factors [3][4] Group 2 - The current political deadlock is more severe than previous instances, but analysts believe the market's reaction may not differ significantly from past shutdowns [4] - Investors are currently adjusting their portfolios, with some taking profits from high-performing tech stocks and reallocating to energy stocks, which have shown gains recently [4]

美股今年二季度的财报已近尾声。 据悉，标普500指数成分股公司的营收、利润以超出预期为主。据慧甚(FactSet)最新数据，这些公司二 季度利润较上年同期增长12%左右，远高于分析师在7月初预测的5%的增幅。 本周零售业财报还将陆续公布，受到投资者关注。 高风险牛市 本季度美股财报整体延续了上季度的态势，表现较为出色。 在上一季度接近尾声时，市场预计标普500指数成分股公司第一季度利润同比增长约13%，盈利增长约 7%。进入二季度，随着特朗普关税政策的变动、债券市场紧张和通胀预期升高，市场不确定性逐渐升 温。不过，稳健的财报帮助股市挽回了春季动荡造成的损失。FactSet预计，标普500指数成分股公司二 季度利润将同比增长12%左右，远高于分析师在7月初预测的5%的增幅。 一系列利好消息助长了投资者信心：标普500指数已较4月份的低点攀升29%，今年以来的累计涨幅达到 9.7%。 投顾平台圣所财富(Sanctuary Wealth)首席投资策略师玛丽.安.巴特尔斯(Mary Ann Bartels)评价，"人们原 以为美国经济会放缓，就业会减速，这会对盈利产生负面影响。但这种情况并没有发生。" 但并非所有领域 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market continues its upward trend, driven by strong corporate earnings, with a significant proportion of companies exceeding expectations, potentially reaching the highest level since Q2 2021 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - U.S. stocks experienced a slight increase, maintaining a record-setting trend [1] - The strong performance of corporate earnings is a key driver of the market's rise [1] Group 2: Earnings Expectations - The proportion of companies exceeding earnings expectations is expected to reach its highest level since Q2 2021 [1] - Despite some divergence in earnings among companies, the majority are still surpassing expectations, supporting the upward momentum of the stock market [1] Group 3: Upcoming Earnings Reports - Market attention is shifting towards the upcoming earnings reports from major tech companies, with four out of the "Seven Giants" (Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta) set to release their results [1] - Key themes for the earnings season include AI spending, cloud computing demand, and digital advertising [1] - The concentrated weight of the "Seven Giants" in the market means their earnings data will be crucial for overall market trends [1]

Economic Situation - The current economic environment is characterized by oversupply, weak prices, and subdued profits, with fiscal spending growth expected at 3.4-3.5% against a budgeted 5% due to income uncertainties [2] - Retail sales growth is projected around 4%, while fixed asset investment is also expected to be in the range of 3%-4%, indicating a lack of strong demand [2] - Inflation forecasts suggest a PPI of -1.7% and a CPI around 0%, with nominal GDP growth estimated between 4.3%-4.5%, indicating a weak pricing environment [2] Trading Volume - A-share trading volume is anticipated to remain high, primarily driven by the significant increase in non-bank deposits, which reached historical peaks [3][4] - The increase in non-bank deposits is largely attributed to residents moving their savings, which influences the dynamics between stocks and bonds [4] - There remains potential for further deposit migration, with estimates suggesting a possible 3.5 trillion yuan in additional savings movement based on current disposable income levels [5] Market Style - There is no clear market style identified, with a focus on industry prosperity rather than specific investment styles [6] - The potential for industry clustering is noted, particularly in sectors benefiting from increased AI investments, which could see growth rates of 20%-30% [7] - High dividend stocks are expected to present opportunities, as they may provide absolute returns in a market with low profit elasticity [7] A-shares vs. Hong Kong Stocks - The probability of Hong Kong stocks outperforming A-shares is considered high, with key assets like Alibaba and Tencent listed in Hong Kong, which may lead to more active capital operations [8] - The overall risk-reward profile for Hong Kong stocks remains favorable despite some reduction in potential gains after recent price increases [8]