Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for market breakthroughs amid current volatility, driven by "policy expectations + industry prosperity" as dual certainties, suggesting an optimized holding structure to prepare for the third quarter's performance and policy resonance [1][10][20]. Market Overview - The market continues to show strength supported by capital and policy expectations, with the upcoming disclosure of second-quarter economic data expected to influence market sentiment [10][20]. - The overall A-share index, excluding financial and micro-cap stocks, has seen a cumulative increase of 32.8% from August 30, 2024, to July 11, 2025, with a 7.0% increase year-to-date [22][25]. Industry Performance - Midstream industries, such as steel, electric new energy, real estate, and building materials, have significantly contributed to the upward movement of the index, indicating a recovery in valuations driven by "anti-involution" policy expectations [22][26]. - The report highlights the ongoing "anti-involution" trading, with sectors like electric new energy and steel showing continued recovery, while the banking sector experienced notable adjustments [20][21]. Domestic Computing Power Industry - The domestic computing power industry is entering a high-growth cycle, with significant developments in the GPU sector, including the IPO acceptance of domestic GPU manufacturers, which fills a gap in the A-share market for full-function GPUs [26][28]. - Industrial Fulian's mid-year earnings forecast indicates a substantial increase in net profit, driven by AI-related business growth, suggesting a positive outlook for the computing power industry [29][30]. Capital Flow and ETF Trends - The A-share market saw a net capital inflow of 61.57 billion yuan, with non-bank financials, computing, and real estate being the most favored sectors [35][36]. - The report notes a shift in ETF trends, with a significant net subscription of 4.89 billion yuan, marking the largest inflow in three weeks [35][36].

二、交易量：居民存款搬家支撑，有望维持高位 各位投资者好，本期旬度的题目就是我们当前对大类资产的主要观点， " 看股做债，存款搬家定天下，行业景 气， AI 支出凝共识 " ，我今天将就经济形势、交易量、股债关系、市场风格、行业景气等方面，详细阐述我 们的思考。 一、经济形势：或仍是供过于求、物价偏弱 我们认为大的推动利润上行的因素，目前尚未看到 ，我们在前几次旬度会议中有所提及，从三大终端需求来 看： 1 ）财政支出，今年广义财政支出增速预计在 3.4-3.5% ，虽然预算草案中给出的增速是 5% ，但是我们认 为收入端的不确定性可能会制约支出增速。 2 ）社零，以旧换新的支持体量在 3000 亿，对应全年的社零增速 大概在 4% 左右； 3 ）固投，预计也是 3%-4% 左右。三大终端需求力量均未超过 5% ，意味着今年可能仍是供 过于求、物价偏弱、利润偏弱的状态。 对于通胀， 预计全年 PPI 为 -1.7% ， CPI 约 0% ， GDP 平减指数为负，价格整体仍偏弱，全年名义 GDP 预计 在 4.3%-4.5% 之间，虽然不会突破 2023 年 4.0%-4.2% 的低点，但也难以看到大的弹性。 ...