12月25日，在"春季躁动"的氛围中，沪指强势收出"7连阳"，来到3950点上方，区间上涨3.52%。 近期宏观环境、政策方向和科技主线都出现利好：人民币汇率破7、北京住房限购政策进一步松绑，以 及央行连续第10个月加量续做，商业航天、机器人双主线爆发。那市场能否继续上攻，冲击8连阳？ 2024年9月：沪指曾录得10连阳（其中2个假阴线），区间涨幅高达+29.06%，背景是市场底+国内政策 组合拳+美联储降息+外资抄底； 2024年2月：沪指曾录得8连阳，区间涨幅+11.20%，背景是中小盘雪球产品敲入风险+大资金托底。 其中，区间涨幅最大的是2024年9月，叠加了美联储降息、国内政策大转向的政策及流动性利好。 中国银河（601881）证券表示：后续春季躁动行情值得期待。短期可关注防御性板块配置机会，同时布 局2026年政策红利与产业景气方向。2026年作为"十五五"规划开局之年，政策红利释放节奏预计相对靠 前，结构性机会将集中在政策导向与产业景气共振的赛道。 关注沪深300，被称为A股整体走势的"晴雨表"。涵盖金融、科技、消费等多个重要行业，风格均衡， 能够有效分散投资风险。全市场跟踪沪深300指数的ETF ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for market breakthroughs amid current volatility, driven by "policy expectations + industry prosperity" as dual certainties, suggesting an optimized holding structure to prepare for the third quarter's performance and policy resonance [1][10][20]. Market Overview - The market continues to show strength supported by capital and policy expectations, with the upcoming disclosure of second-quarter economic data expected to influence market sentiment [10][20]. - The overall A-share index, excluding financial and micro-cap stocks, has seen a cumulative increase of 32.8% from August 30, 2024, to July 11, 2025, with a 7.0% increase year-to-date [22][25]. Industry Performance - Midstream industries, such as steel, electric new energy, real estate, and building materials, have significantly contributed to the upward movement of the index, indicating a recovery in valuations driven by "anti-involution" policy expectations [22][26]. - The report highlights the ongoing "anti-involution" trading, with sectors like electric new energy and steel showing continued recovery, while the banking sector experienced notable adjustments [20][21]. Domestic Computing Power Industry - The domestic computing power industry is entering a high-growth cycle, with significant developments in the GPU sector, including the IPO acceptance of domestic GPU manufacturers, which fills a gap in the A-share market for full-function GPUs [26][28]. - Industrial Fulian's mid-year earnings forecast indicates a substantial increase in net profit, driven by AI-related business growth, suggesting a positive outlook for the computing power industry [29][30]. Capital Flow and ETF Trends - The A-share market saw a net capital inflow of 61.57 billion yuan, with non-bank financials, computing, and real estate being the most favored sectors [35][36]. - The report notes a shift in ETF trends, with a significant net subscription of 4.89 billion yuan, marking the largest inflow in three weeks [35][36].

Economic Situation - The current economic environment is characterized by oversupply, weak prices, and subdued profits, with fiscal spending growth expected at 3.4-3.5% against a budgeted 5% due to income uncertainties [2] - Retail sales growth is projected around 4%, while fixed asset investment is also expected to be in the range of 3%-4%, indicating a lack of strong demand [2] - Inflation forecasts suggest a PPI of -1.7% and a CPI around 0%, with nominal GDP growth estimated between 4.3%-4.5%, indicating a weak pricing environment [2] Trading Volume - A-share trading volume is anticipated to remain high, primarily driven by the significant increase in non-bank deposits, which reached historical peaks [3][4] - The increase in non-bank deposits is largely attributed to residents moving their savings, which influences the dynamics between stocks and bonds [4] - There remains potential for further deposit migration, with estimates suggesting a possible 3.5 trillion yuan in additional savings movement based on current disposable income levels [5] Market Style - There is no clear market style identified, with a focus on industry prosperity rather than specific investment styles [6] - The potential for industry clustering is noted, particularly in sectors benefiting from increased AI investments, which could see growth rates of 20%-30% [7] - High dividend stocks are expected to present opportunities, as they may provide absolute returns in a market with low profit elasticity [7] A-shares vs. Hong Kong Stocks - The probability of Hong Kong stocks outperforming A-shares is considered high, with key assets like Alibaba and Tencent listed in Hong Kong, which may lead to more active capital operations [8] - The overall risk-reward profile for Hong Kong stocks remains favorable despite some reduction in potential gains after recent price increases [8]