2025年，对日本股票的重新评估进一步推进。12月30日迎来最后一个交易日的日经平均指数的全年涨幅 为26%（上涨10444点），连续3年超过美国道琼斯工业平均指数。全球范围的生成式AI（人工智能）预 期和日本通货膨胀的稳定推动了资金的流入。随着高市早苗政府的上台，以海外投资者为中心，对日本 经济重新走上增长轨道的期待正在加强。股价走高是否能够持续，取决于关注财政扩张隐忧的政策运 作。 30日日经平均指数的收盘价比前一天下跌0.4%，跌至50339点，但连续2年创出年末最高点。 股市上涨是全球现象。QUICK FactSet的统计显示，全球股票的总市值达到146万亿美元，1年内增加了 25万亿美元（20%）。除了政治混乱的泰国等之外，几乎所有主要国家的股价指数都有上涨。 其背景是主要国家的货币宽松带来的投资资金的充裕。2025年美国联邦储备委员会（FRB）降息3次， 欧洲中央银行（ECB）降息4次。 以美国为起点的AI概念股的上涨在世界范围内也如出一辙。美国微软等大型科技企业对数据中心的设 备投资十分活跃。 日经平均股指的年终收盘价首次超过5万点（12月30日） 全球范围的生成式AI预期和日本通货膨胀的稳定推 ...

当华尔街对人工智能的投资热潮日趋审慎之际，此前因AI布局相对迟缓而备受争议的苹果公司，反而成为近期市场中的意外赢家。 今年下半年以来，苹果股价飙升超35%。在AI相关支出持续引发市场质疑的背景下，苹果的审慎策略被重新解读为更具确定性的"避风港"，从而 获得资金青睐。 苹果股价的强劲表现与其他科技巨头形成鲜明对比。同期，Meta、微软等重押AI的个股已转入调整区间，即便是AI芯片龙头英伟达的涨幅也落后 于苹果。相比之下，标普500指数同期上涨约10%，纳斯达克100指数上涨约13%，苹果显著跑赢大盘。 这一逆转推动苹果市值升至4.1万亿美元，超越微软成为标普500指数中第二大权重股，仅次于英伟达。随着市场对大型科技公司在AI领域数千亿 美元投入的可持续性质疑渐起，苹果当前相对谨慎的定位，反而被视为一种能在AI技术真正成熟时灵活受益的战略优势。 上半年垫底到下半年领跑 苹果股价在2025年上演了戏剧性转折。上半年，其在"科技七雄"中表现垫底，股价累计下跌18%；然而自6月底起，走势完全逆转。投资者正将苹 果视为一个独特的防御性选择，既规避了过度投资的风险，又能在AI技术成熟普及时，凭借其生态与硬件优势持续受益。 ...

Core Insights - The Bitcoin ETFs listed in the U.S. are experiencing the most significant monthly outflow in nearly two years, with investors withdrawing $3.5 billion since November, approaching the historical record of $3.6 billion set in February [1] - BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT.US), which accounts for about 60% of the total assets in this category, has seen redemptions of $2.2 billion this month, potentially marking its worst monthly performance unless a significant reversal occurs [1] - Bitcoin itself is facing its most severe monthly performance since the collapse of the cryptocurrency industry in 2022, despite an improved global policy environment this year [1] Market Dynamics - Bitcoin's price dropped to $80,553 last Friday, with a slight recovery over the weekend, but it still reflects an 8% decline year-to-date [3] - The spot Bitcoin ETF has become a barometer for market sentiment since its launch in January 2024, creating a self-reinforcing feedback loop where inflows accelerate with price increases and outflows intensify with price declines [3] - Citigroup's research indicates that for every $1 billion outflow from Bitcoin ETFs, the price typically drops by 3.4%, suggesting further downside potential for Bitcoin if ETF inflows remain zero [3] Institutional Sentiment - The significant trading volume of Bitcoin ETFs, reaching $11.5 billion last Friday, indicates a temporary release of demand, but ongoing redemptions from IBIT suggest a shift in institutional preferences away from leading products, reflecting a lack of complete market confidence [4] - The broader financial market context shows a pullback in various high-risk assets, including AI stocks and meme stocks, with the S&P 500 facing its worst monthly performance since March [7] - The recent volatility in Bitcoin is viewed as a signal of market fatigue, and stabilization in this asset class could potentially alleviate some tension in the U.S. stock market [7]

为给人工智能（AI）的巨大投入提供资金，科技公司正以前所未有的规模涌入债券市场。 据《华尔街日报》11月23日报道，自今年9月初以来，包括亚马逊、Alphabet、Meta和甲骨文在内的所谓"AI超大规模企业"（AI hyperscalers）已发 行近900亿美元的投资级债券。 根据Dealogic的数据，这一规模超过了这些公司此前40个月的发行总额。与此同时，评级较低的AI数据中心开发商也发行了超过70亿美元的投机 级债券。 目前，其评级仅比投机级高出两档，其债券收益率已高于几乎所有投资级科技同行。研究公司CreditSights的高级分析师Jordan Chalfin指出，甲骨 文未来三年可能还需发行约650亿美元的债券，维持投资级评级对其至关重要，因为投机级市场的融资规模远不足以支持其需求。 投机级债券的警示信号，风险正在外溢至股市 在风险更高的投机级市场，警示信号更为明确。作为少数拥有次投资级债券的主要AI云服务提供商，CoreWeave的处境颇具代表性。 据报道，该公司7月份发行的2031年到期债券，近期交易价格已跌至面值的92美分，对应的收益率高达约11%，与评级最低的CCC级债券平均水平 相当 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in international gold prices driven by various factors including a surge in layoffs in the US private sector, a notable decline in global AI concept stocks, and ongoing geopolitical tensions in multiple regions [1] - As of October 10, 2023, at 13:23 Beijing time, the price of December gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange reached $4,062.3 per ounce, reflecting an increase of 1.32% [1] - The London spot gold price was reported at $4,053.7 per ounce, with a rise of 1.31% [1]

Group 1 - Palantir has reached a significant milestone by entering the top 20 highest market capitalization companies in the U.S., with a market value of $375 billion, surpassing companies like Home Depot and Procter & Gamble [1] - The company's stock price has doubled since the beginning of the year, driven by the AI wave and its increasing relationship with the U.S. government [1] - In its latest financial report, Palantir's revenue from U.S. government business surged 45% year-over-year to $373 million, contributing to an overall revenue growth of 39% to $884 million [1] Group 2 - Palantir's current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is notably high at 273, making it the only company in the top 20 with a triple-digit P/E ratio, compared to Tesla's P/E of 175 [2] - Despite its increased market value, Palantir's total revenue of $3.1 billion over the past year is significantly lower than that of its peers, such as Mastercard, which reported approximately $29 billion in total revenue [2]