标普500的6725点被高盛视为关键分界，一旦跌破将触发趋势反转，并可能引发CTA系统性抛售。华尔街警告，美股重要 支撑位持续承压，罗素2000已率先破位。资金正从科技流向医疗等防御板块，英伟达波动显著加大。随着财报与就业数 据来临，市场或面临更深层调整风险。 随着市场情绪日益谨慎，华尔街顶级投行正在为投资者划定一条新的"多空分界线"。高盛最新发布的报告明确指 出，标普500指数的6725点是一个关键的技术拐点，一旦失守，可能标志着持续数月的积极市场趋势正式终 结。 根据高盛衍生品策略师Brian Garrett在一份周日发布的报告， 6725点对标普500指数而言是"非常重要"的，跌 破该水平将使该指数的趋势自今年2月以来第二次转为负面。上一次出现这种情况是在10月份的一个交易日内。 对美股的警告似乎正在成为华尔街的"共识"。摩根大通表示，美股面临"关键防线"，标普500指数若相继跌破 6700、6631及6525点三道防线，将确认进入下行趋势。而代表小盘股的罗素2000指数已呈现"最令人担忧"的破 位形态。若关键支撑全面失守，市场调整或将持续至2026年初。 此轮警告发出之际，市场正准备迎接一个关键性的数 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the U.S. stock market is facing multiple challenges as it enters historically weak September, with CTA funds fully invested and potentially poised to sell off significant amounts of stocks [1][3] - Goldman Sachs highlights the historical performance of the S&P 500 index in September, noting it is the worst month with an average return of -1.17%, particularly in the latter half of the month [3] - The report suggests that CTA funds' buying power has diminished significantly, dropping from $27.66 billion in July to an expected $2.96 billion in September, raising concerns about potential forced sell-offs [3] Group 2 - Despite the challenging macro backdrop, Goldman Sachs identifies structural support within the market that may act as a stabilizer, suggesting that any downturns could be relatively mild [5] - The report notes that institutional investors still have room to increase their positions, with hedge funds maintaining low net leverage, indicating a lack of strong directional bets [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of cash, highlighting that since 2019, $4.09 trillion has flowed into U.S. money market funds, significantly outpacing the inflow into U.S. equity funds [5] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs expresses optimism regarding the Chinese market, noting a significant rotation of hedge funds into emerging market stocks, particularly Chinese assets [7] - The report mentions that the CSI 300 index has surged approximately 10% since the end of July, outperforming the MSCI China index, driven by positive sentiment around advancements in artificial intelligence and measures to cut excess capacity [7] - Recent data from RatingDog indicates that China's composite PMI output index reached 51.9 in August, signaling continued expansion and improved business confidence [8]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley has raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 index from 5200 to 6000, indicating a more optimistic outlook for the U.S. stock market [1] - The chief equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, stated that as long as there are no major policy surprises, the stock market is likely to continue reaching new highs [1] - Other institutions such as Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, and Barclays have also shifted to a bullish stance on U.S. stocks recently [1] Group 2 - The main drivers for the bullish outlook on U.S. stocks include the ongoing AI boom, systematic strategy funds buying due to decreased market volatility, and active funds taking advantage of price dips [2] - In April, concerns over the chaotic trade policies of the Trump administration led to significant downward revisions of the S&P 500 index forecasts, marking one of the most severe downgrades since the pandemic began in 2020 [2] - Lakos-Bujas anticipates a potential short squeeze as institutional investors who sold stocks in April are now looking to buy back at higher prices, with large tech stocks expected to lead the market rally [2] Group 3 - There is a cautionary note regarding a potential slowdown in the U.S. economy in the second half of the year, with current stock valuations being high and a need to be aware of possible corrections [2] - If the economic slowdown prompts the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates sooner, the market may overlook weak data and instead focus on short-term rebounds in small-cap and cyclical stocks [2]