中金公司研报指出，百济神州3Q25业绩略超预期，CDK41L临床1H26启动。泽布替尼拉动产品收入稳 步增长。3Q25年泽布替尼销售10.4 亿美元，同比增长51%，环比增长7%；其中美国地区销售额7.39亿 美元，同比增长47%，环比增长8%，继续保持领先地位。得益于泽布替尼全球销售扩张，毛利率提 升，以及费用控制，该行对今年公司顺利完成全年指引持乐观态度。由于公司泽布替尼快速放量以及费 用控制效果明显，我们上调2025 年盈利预测56%至3.31 亿美元，维持2026 年盈利预测不变。维持"跑赢 行业"评级，由于上调盈利预测，基于DCF模型，切换估值至2026 年，上调A/H/US股目标价 3.2%/3.3%/3.7%至320元/250港币/420美元（15.1%/26.6%/27.6%上行空间）。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

Core Insights - The valuation logic and IPO pricing of Chinese concept stocks are focal points for issuers, investors, and underwriters, impacting both the success of IPO financing and post-listing stock performance [1] Valuation Models and Application Scenarios - **PE (Price-to-Earnings) Model**: Suitable for traditional industries with stable earnings, such as consumer, manufacturing, and education sectors. Adjustments to standard PE multiples should consider growth potential, industry position, and earnings quality [3] - **PS (Price-to-Sales) Model**: More applicable for high-growth tech companies that are not yet profitable. Evaluation should focus on the specific segment's PS levels and metrics like user scale, revenue growth, and gross margin [4] - **DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) Model**: Best for mature business models with predictable cash flows, such as infrastructure and utility companies. Key factors include setting appropriate discount rates and growth assumptions based on macroeconomic and industry trends in China [5] Strategies for Enhancing IPO Value Realization - **Integration of Valuation Logic and Business Narrative**: Emphasizing core competencies during roadshows can enhance the credibility of valuation models. For instance, tech companies should highlight technological barriers and market penetration, while consumer firms should focus on brand value and supply chain efficiency [7] - **Full-Cycle Performance Management**: Pre-IPO roadshows should build consensus by clearly communicating business certainty and growth logic to attract strategic investors. Post-IPO, transparent information disclosure and regular communication can strengthen trust in the company's strategy and execution [8] - **Flexibility in Responding to Market Fluctuations**: Companies should be prepared to adjust their strategies in response to valuation pressures, such as initiating buybacks during undervaluation or pursuing refinancing or acquisitions when market sentiment improves [9]

Core Insights - UBS reported that China Mobile's service revenue for Q3 was 216.2 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 0.8%, in line with market expectations [1] - Due to macroeconomic headwinds, EBITDA decreased by 1.7% year-on-year to 79.4 billion yuan, which was 3% lower than market expectations [1] - Net profit saw a slight increase of 1.4% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced depreciation and amortization expenses following peak capital expenditures, which partially offset the rise in operating expenses [1] Financial Projections - Following the earnings announcement, UBS adjusted its forecasts, maintaining revenue estimates for 2025 to 2027 while slightly lowering net profit estimates by 0% to 1% to reflect a slight decline in profitability under macroeconomic pressures [1] - UBS moved its DCF model forward by three months and slightly reduced the target price from 102 HKD to 100 HKD, indicating a projected dividend yield of 5.7% for 2026, compared to the current trading level's yield of 6.7% [1]

Core Thesis - The Wendy's Company (WEN) is viewed positively due to its resilient business model, which is franchise-heavy and generates high owner earnings, benefiting from digital engagement and international expansion [1][4][5] Business Model - Wendy's operates approximately 7,166 restaurants in FY24, with around 84% being franchised, allowing the company to earn primarily through fees, royalties, and rent rather than direct food sales [2][4] - The "light-asset tollbooth" model leads to high owner earnings that grow faster than GAAP revenue, supported by brand recognition and a strong franchise network [3][4] Growth Drivers - Growth is fueled by digital engagement, high-capacity restaurant operations, international expansion, and new meal offerings like breakfast [4] - The company has millions of active members in its digital and loyalty programs, which enhance customer retention and sales [4] Financial Performance - For FY24, Wendy's reported revenues of $2.25 billion, with operating cash flow of $355 million, translating to free cash flow of approximately $261 million [5] - Owner earnings are estimated between $299 million and $318 million, indicating a yield of 16-18% at current stock prices [5] Valuation - A two-stage DCF model suggests an intrinsic value of around $17 per share, with a conservative buy zone identified between $9 and $12 [5] - The investment thesis emphasizes reliable cash generation rather than aggressive growth, positioning Wendy's as a low-capital, high-cash-flow business [5] Risks and Challenges - Near-term risks include U.S. comparable sales volatility, labor and beef costs, and the need for disciplined execution of promotions [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating to the company, with a target price of HKD 19.02 over the next six months [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of HKD 0.01 billion and a net profit of -HKD 0.88 billion for the reporting period. The oral small molecule GLP-1 agonist ASC30 shows potential for BIC, and overseas licensing opportunities are promising. ASC30 demonstrated an average weight reduction of 6.5% relative to baseline in a U.S. Phase Ib trial [1][2]. - The company has multiple pipeline products advancing rapidly, including ASC30 subcutaneous injection and ASC47 THRb subcutaneous injection, with top-line data expected within the year. The revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are HKD 0.03 billion, HKD 0.7 billion, and HKD 1.4 billion, respectively, with net profits projected at -HKD 3.0 billion, -HKD 2.8 billion, and -HKD 2.9 billion [2][6]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at HKD 56.60 million, with a significant increase expected in subsequent years, reaching HKD 137.92 million by 2027. However, net profits are expected to remain negative throughout this period [6][10]. - The company’s cash flow from operating activities is projected to be negative in 2025 at -HKD 168.66 million, with a recovery expected in 2026 [9]. - The balance sheet shows total assets decreasing from HKD 2,491.01 million in 2023 to HKD 1,232.41 million by 2027, indicating a potential liquidity concern [8]. Market Performance - The stock has shown significant performance, with a 12-month absolute return of 1,733.3% and a relative return of 1,701.2% [5]. - The current stock price is HKD 14.85, which is below the target price, indicating potential upside for investors [4]. Pipeline Development - The company is advancing several clinical trials, including ASC30 and ASC47, with expected top-line data releases within the year, which could significantly impact future revenue streams [2][6]. - The DCF model suggests a strong growth trajectory for revenue, with projections indicating a rise to HKD 70.0 billion by 2034 [7]. Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratio for 2025 is -44.23, reflecting the company's current unprofitability but potential for future growth as products are commercialized [11]. - The projected net profit margin is expected to improve significantly, moving from -255.70% in 2024 to -207.79% in 2027, indicating a gradual recovery [11].

Core Viewpoint - Despite Elon Musk's ambitious claims regarding Tesla's AI supercomputing system, fully autonomous driving, Robotaxi, and humanoid robot applications, the company fundamentally remains an electric vehicle manufacturer, with automotive sales contributing 75% of its revenue, while the contributions from AI-driven initiatives are minimal and uncertain [1][2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - Tesla's automotive business generated $167 billion in revenue for the second quarter of fiscal year 2025, down from $199 billion in the same period last year, reflecting a 12% year-over-year decline [3][6] - The company's gross margin fell to 17.2%, a decrease of 71 basis points year-over-year, attributed to declining sales and increased discounts [6] - The second quarter vehicle deliveries unexpectedly dropped by 13% year-over-year, with Model 3/Y deliveries down 12% and luxury models down 52% [6] Group 2: Market Challenges - Tesla's market share in Europe has been significantly eroded, with sales continuously declining due to increased competition from established automakers like Volkswagen and Renault [3][7] - The company's market share in the UK has plummeted to below 1% this year, indicating a substantial loss of presence in a key market [3][7] - The political backlash against Musk has negatively impacted Tesla's sales in Europe, as many customers are reluctant to associate with his values [8] Group 3: Valuation Insights - Analyst Gytis Zizys estimates that even under the most optimistic discounted cash flow (DCF) assumptions, Tesla's intrinsic value is only $233 per share, suggesting that the current trading price of approximately $310 is overvalued [3][10] - The DCF model used by Zizys incorporates a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 10.8% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%, leading to a significant downside potential of 24.3% from the current share price [10] Group 4: Future Business Prospects - The revenue contribution from AI-driven initiatives like Full Self-Driving (FSD) and Robotaxi remains below 10% of Tesla's total revenue, indicating limited current financial impact [2][3] - The anticipated growth in Tesla's energy storage systems is projected to reach $10 billion in 2024, but current deployment rates suggest that the long-term goals set by Musk may not be achievable [9]