以高杠杆期权或者"赌博式"的全仓押注某只个股等激进股票投资方式而闻名全球的韩国散户投资者们，正在重新押宝于加密 货币领域，对于他们长期以来所信仰的"特斯拉股价长期牛市叙事"逻辑则出现重大裂痕——即他们对于特斯拉长期看涨逻辑 可能逐渐崩塌。 随着韩国散户投资们对这家美国电动车制造商兼自动驾驶、人形机器人领军者的失望情绪加剧，以及对比特币、以太坊等加 密货币的看涨买入兴趣狂飙式上升，他们在上个月罕见加大了对于特斯拉股票与相关看涨期权的抛售力度。 韩国散户投资者们之所以闻名全球并且能够在极短时间内造成国际上任何一只股票剧烈波动，主要因他们聚焦于YOLO投资 策略。YOLO——即以"你只活这一次"(You Only Live Once)为投资宗旨的激进投资群体，他们热衷于以"赌博式"的方式全仓 或买入高杠杆期权来押宝某一只个股。"YOLO们"今年以来尤其痴迷于在AI热潮中随着多头趋势而大举押宝英伟达、博通以 及台积电等最热门AI算力产业链公司，以及像特斯拉这样的高波动且散户参与度极高的热门科技股，他们的最新押注则转向 高波动的加密货币相关标的。 特斯拉在韩国散户群体中的人气急剧下滑 根据彭博对存托管数据的测算，8 月 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite Elon Musk's ambitious claims regarding Tesla's AI supercomputing system, fully autonomous driving, Robotaxi, and humanoid robot applications, the company fundamentally remains an electric vehicle manufacturer, with automotive sales contributing 75% of its revenue, while the contributions from AI-driven initiatives are minimal and uncertain [1][2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - Tesla's automotive business generated $167 billion in revenue for the second quarter of fiscal year 2025, down from $199 billion in the same period last year, reflecting a 12% year-over-year decline [3][6] - The company's gross margin fell to 17.2%, a decrease of 71 basis points year-over-year, attributed to declining sales and increased discounts [6] - The second quarter vehicle deliveries unexpectedly dropped by 13% year-over-year, with Model 3/Y deliveries down 12% and luxury models down 52% [6] Group 2: Market Challenges - Tesla's market share in Europe has been significantly eroded, with sales continuously declining due to increased competition from established automakers like Volkswagen and Renault [3][7] - The company's market share in the UK has plummeted to below 1% this year, indicating a substantial loss of presence in a key market [3][7] - The political backlash against Musk has negatively impacted Tesla's sales in Europe, as many customers are reluctant to associate with his values [8] Group 3: Valuation Insights - Analyst Gytis Zizys estimates that even under the most optimistic discounted cash flow (DCF) assumptions, Tesla's intrinsic value is only $233 per share, suggesting that the current trading price of approximately $310 is overvalued [3][10] - The DCF model used by Zizys incorporates a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 10.8% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%, leading to a significant downside potential of 24.3% from the current share price [10] Group 4: Future Business Prospects - The revenue contribution from AI-driven initiatives like Full Self-Driving (FSD) and Robotaxi remains below 10% of Tesla's total revenue, indicating limited current financial impact [2][3] - The anticipated growth in Tesla's energy storage systems is projected to reach $10 billion in 2024, but current deployment rates suggest that the long-term goals set by Musk may not be achievable [9]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley maintains a bullish outlook on Tesla, reiterating an "Overweight" rating and a target price of $410, despite recent volatility due to public disputes involving CEO Elon Musk and former President Donald Trump [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - Tesla's stock experienced a significant decline of nearly 15% last week, with a record single-day loss exceeding 14% on Thursday, impacting major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq [2]. - As of 2025, Tesla's stock has dropped over 25% year-to-date [2]. Group 2: Long-term Outlook - Morgan Stanley emphasizes that the recent political tensions and the potential removal of electric vehicle tax credits will not significantly affect Tesla's long-term fundamentals [5]. - The firm believes that Tesla's leadership in AI, autonomous driving, and robotics positions it favorably for future growth, despite short-term market fluctuations [6][8]. Group 3: Key Growth Drivers - The core growth drivers identified by Morgan Stanley include Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, the Robotaxi network, and the Optimus AI humanoid robot, with the potential for the robotics market to surpass the global automotive market [8][11]. - The analysis suggests that the integration of advanced AI models and Tesla's Dojo supercomputer will enhance the capabilities of its products, further solidifying its market position [10][11]. Group 4: Financial Projections - Morgan Stanley's bull case estimates a total valuation of $800 per share for Tesla, driven by various segments including automotive, energy, and mobility services [9]. - The base case valuation stands at $410, while the bear case estimates a value of $200, reflecting the potential volatility in Tesla's stock price based on market conditions [9].

Group 1: Core Insights - Morgan Stanley reaffirms a bullish outlook on Tesla, setting a base target price of $410 and a bullish scenario target of $800, indicating strong potential for stock price appreciation within the next 12 months [1][8] - The analysis highlights Tesla's position as a key beneficiary in the AI era and the U.S.-China autonomous driving technology competition, driven by the widespread adoption of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) system and the development of a Robotaxi network [1][6] Group 2: Valuation and Business Segments - Morgan Stanley suggests that Tesla's high market valuation cannot be solely justified by traditional automotive profits, as investors currently value its automotive business at $50-100 per share, similar to how Amazon and Apple were undervalued in their early days [2][8] - The analysis breaks down Tesla's potential revenue streams, estimating a total valuation of $800 in a bullish case, with significant contributions from Tesla Auto, Tesla Energy, Mobility services, and Network Services [3] Group 3: AI and Robotics Potential - Tesla is positioned to benefit significantly from advancements in AI, particularly through its Dojo supercomputer and Optimus humanoid robot, which are expected to integrate with its FSD technology [5][10] - The humanoid robot market is projected to be larger than the current global automotive market, with estimates suggesting a potential market size of $1 trillion by 2050 [10][19] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The ongoing U.S.-China competition in autonomous driving is seen as a major catalyst for Tesla's valuation and growth, with Tesla's FSD system expected to penetrate the market through subscription models [6][22] - Traditional Western automakers are increasingly looking to collaborate with Chinese EV manufacturers, which could enhance Tesla's position in the market by leveraging its extensive data and AI capabilities [23]