Core Insights - The GENIUS Act is expected to create significant demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, as stated by Trump's AI and cryptocurrency advisor, Sacks [1] Group 1 - The GENIUS Act aims to enhance the integration of artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency within the financial system, potentially leading to increased investment in U.S. Treasury securities [1] - Sacks emphasizes that the legislation will not only foster innovation but also stabilize the financial markets by driving demand for government bonds [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. House Speaker Johnson announced that the vote on the GENIUS Act will take place tomorrow, while the CLARITY Act is expected to be voted on next week [1] - Johnson also mentioned that the House will incorporate anti-CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency) legislation into the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) [1]

比特币币值突破12万美元，创下历史新高系多因素叠加影响，核心在于机构端持续买盘与市场风险 偏好的同步回升；其次，美联储货币政策进入宽松预期阶段，市场预期将有更多流动性进入加密货币市 场；同时，美国推进的GENIUS法案（稳定币法案）为加密货币市场带来了更清晰的监管框架，增强了 市场信心。 首次站上12万美元 比特币币值一路走高。7月14日，比特币价格首次突破12万美元/枚，再次刷新历史纪录。记者了解 到，2024年12月5日，比特币价格首次突破10万美元，后在今年1月美国总统特朗普就职日创下新高，突 破10.9万美元。但是，随着特朗普的关税政策影响，加密货币整体暴跌，比特币价格在4月初曾短暂跌 破8万美元。不过，在今年5月8日，比特币再次突破关键的10万美元关口。 5月21日晚间，比特币攀升至10.95万美元，突破此前在1月20日特朗普就职时创下的10.9万美元高 点。5月22日早间，比特币进一步突破11万美元整数关口。从实际行情来看，比特币在5月22日突破11万 美元后，进入一个盘整阶段，期间价格多次下探至9.8万美元一线。到了7月，比特币打开上涨通道，在 7月10日凌晨达到11.2万美元，此后一路冲高到1 ...

Core Insights - Bitcoin's value first surpassed $110,000 on May 22, reaching a peak of $111,900, followed by a consolidation phase where it dipped to around $98,000 [3] - In July, Bitcoin's price began a gradual upward trend, with significant short positions in the futures market, indicating potential for a squeeze [3] - The recent price surge to a new high of $112,000 is attributed to institutional buying, improved market risk appetite, and favorable regulatory developments, including the GENIUS Act [3] Technical Analysis - From March to May, Bitcoin experienced a consolidation phase between $92,000 and $98,000, forming an "ascending triangle" pattern [4] - A breakout occurred on May 8, confirming bullish momentum, followed by a rapid price increase due to passive buying and stop-loss triggers [4] - The period from mid-June to early July saw Bitcoin consolidate between $108,000 and $111,000 before breaking above $112,000 due to macroeconomic positive stimuli [4] Future Outlook - Industry experts suggest that the current high price may not immediately lead to a market top, as such formations typically require extended periods of adjustment [4] - Investors are advised to remain patient while being cautious of potential market volatility that could impact prices [4]

Core Insights - Retail giants like Walmart and Amazon are exploring the issuance of their own stablecoins to challenge traditional payment networks like Visa and Mastercard, driven by the desire to reduce transaction fees and improve settlement times [1][2] - The motivation behind these companies' interest in stablecoins is not merely to embrace cryptocurrency innovation, but to gain leverage in negotiations with payment processors and potentially bypass traditional payment systems altogether [1][2] Group 1: Retail Giants' Initiatives - Walmart is leading in the pay-by-bank sector, allowing direct payments from bank accounts to merchants without credit or debit cards, and has lobbied for increased competition in the credit card industry [2] - Amazon is in the early stages of discussions about launching its own token for online shopping, while also considering the use of external stablecoins through merchant alliances [2] - The GENIUS Act, which aims to establish a regulatory framework for stablecoins, is being pushed by merchant payment alliances to provide an alternative payment method that could significantly lower costs for merchants [2] Group 2: Traditional Payment Networks' Response - Visa and Mastercard are positioning themselves as key infrastructure providers for the stablecoin ecosystem, with Visa launching a platform to help banks issue fiat-backed tokens and collaborating with Stripe to allow businesses to offer credit cards linked to stablecoins [3] - Mastercard is enhancing support for stablecoin settlements for merchants, emphasizing the importance of providing choices to consumers and businesses in a rapidly changing environment [3] Group 3: Other Participants in the Payment Ecosystem - Shopify has announced that it will allow merchants on its platform to accept stablecoin payments, supported by Stripe and Coinbase [4] Group 4: Consumer Acceptance Challenges - Convincing consumers to abandon their credit card habits in favor of stablecoins presents a significant challenge, as the benefits of stablecoins may not be immediately apparent to consumers [5] - The requirement for consumers to set up cryptocurrency wallets adds friction to the purchasing experience, and consumers need to see clear advantages over traditional credit cards, especially those offering rewards [5] - Historical attempts to promote alternative payment systems, such as the merchant customer exchange system supported by major retailers, have faced challenges and slow adoption [5]

Group 1 - The increasing regulatory scrutiny on stablecoins is raising questions about how they will reshape traditional banking [1] - The proposed GENIUS Act aims to establish a regulatory framework for stablecoin issuers, which could impact bank deposits [1] - Stablecoins may shift funds from smaller, insured retail accounts to larger, uninsured institutional deposit accounts, increasing volatility and management costs for banks [1] Group 2 - The European Central Bank warns that banks absorbing deposits from stablecoin issuers are converting stable retail funds into more volatile institutional funds [2] - The panic surrounding Silicon Valley Bank in March 2023 highlighted the risks associated with stablecoin deposits, as Circle Internet Financial had significant deposits there [2] - Major financial institutions are expected to benefit from the expansion of stablecoins, as they are required to maintain high levels of liquid assets [2] Group 3 - Large banks appear prepared for the changes brought by stablecoins, but small and regional banks may face greater challenges if stablecoins become widely adopted [3]

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 06 月 06 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 06 月 06 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要观点 【浙商宏观 李超/林成炜/廖博/费瑾】宏观深度报告：稳定币详解——20250605 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 大势：6 月 5 日上证指数上涨 0.23%，沪深 300 上涨 0.23%，科创 50 上涨 1.04%，中证 1000 上涨 0.72%，创业板 指上涨 1.17%，恒生指数上涨 1.07%。 行业：6 月 5 日表现最好的行业分别是通信（+2.62%)、电子（+2.31%)、计算机（+2.12%)、传媒（+1.27%)、机 械设备（+0.98%)，表现最差的行业分别是美容护理（-3.07%)、纺织服饰（-1.81%)、农林牧渔（-1.79%)、综合 （-1.3%)、医药生物（-1.01%)。 资金：6 月 5 日全 A 总成交额为 13169.62 亿元，南下资金净流入 ...