本文每周初更新发布梳理各级别走势分析和预期主次节奏：做有品质的三方服务黄金月线图（超长线） Inception: 2025-8-3 从技术上，本轮黄金上涨的启动力来自于2020-2023年的超大型横盘突破；从基本面，长期伴随着全球 局势的不断恶化，包括地缘、经济等，促使全球资本相当大程度地追求避险，这又包括多国央行大举买 入黄金，促成了这一轮超级大牛市。从波浪上，依然将现阶段定义为某个级别的3浪（连续性极好，不 预测终点），后市还会出现4浪回调和5浪上涨。 8月黄金还会再次冲击3400以上，这是上破3500的机会，但如果再次失败则可能引发快速大回调来重新 积蓄上冲人气（超长线涨势不变）。Update: 2025-8-31 8月月线图收出较大的阳线，且几乎是光头阳线。这是一个局部上涨动能再次占优的信号，那么接下来 的9月显然会尝试冲击新高。对于月线图而言，之前几个月的高位盘整算不上清晰的回调过程，那么至 今依然认为还在3浪过程中，并不是4浪后的5浪。Update: 2025-10-5 9月月线图继续收出超大的阳线，充分表现出上涨动能的强劲，整体上涨趋势保持得非常完好，思路上 只能以多头思路对待，稍微一个上冲就会 ...

Market Index Analysis - The major A-share indices in Shanghai and Shenzhen stabilized and rebounded, with most stocks rising significantly, although 34 stocks hit the daily limit down, indicating a clear market divergence [1] - The analysis focused on the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index, noting a recovery in the afternoon session [2] Shanghai Composite Index - The Shanghai Composite Index opened high but fell before rebounding, with a noticeable lower shadow on the daily candlestick, signaling a potential short-term stabilization [4] - The index has undergone seven effective adjustment cycles recently, with two cycles remaining until a potential turning point, suggesting that the market may experience a small adjustment in the early session on Wednesday, followed by a rebound in the afternoon [4] ChiNext Index - The ChiNext Index has also seen ten effective adjustment cycles, reaching a turning point, with the morning session showing signs of stabilization and subsequent afternoon gains [7] - The daily candlestick indicates a long lower shadow, suggesting a clear stabilization signal, but a likely action to fill the lower shadow is expected on the following day [7]

Market Index Analysis - The major A-share indices showed mixed performance on Monday, with expectations for upward movement in the afternoon session, which aligned with the actual market behavior [1] - The analysis focused on the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext 50 Index, indicating a potential for upward movement in the Shanghai Composite Index [1][2] Shanghai Composite Index - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a rebound after hitting a low, with a daily candlestick showing a strong entity and a notable lower shadow, suggesting short-term upward momentum may be insufficient [4] - The previous day's candlestick also indicated a potential adjustment signal, with consistent signals over the last two trading days [4] - Short-term projections suggest a possible rise to 4025 unless a significant bullish candlestick pattern emerges to alleviate adjustment pressure [4] ChiNext 50 Index - The ChiNext 50 Index displayed a small candlestick with a long upper shadow last Friday, indicating a clear adjustment signal, which continued into the current session [7] - The closing candlestick for today also showed a small entity and a long lower shadow, reinforcing the adjustment signal, with expectations for further adjustments on Tuesday [7] - The hourly chart indicated a series of downward movements followed by a slight rebound, but the upward movement was limited [7] Overall Market Sentiment - The current A-share market is characterized by structural trends in individual stocks as long as the overall market does not experience significant declines [8] - Successful trading relies on correctly identifying trends, with a focus on K-line analysis, patterns, and central structures to accurately gauge price fluctuations [8] - The strategy emphasizes entering positions during pullbacks after structural breakouts, highlighting the importance of trend trading for stable profits [8]

Core Insights - The market is currently experiencing a downturn, with over 4,100 stocks declining, making it increasingly difficult to generate profits. However, some investors have managed to avoid significant losses by strategically reallocating their investments into dividend and pharmaceutical sectors, demonstrating the effectiveness of contrarian investment strategies [2]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - The importance of timely profit-taking and strategic positioning in resilient sectors is highlighted, as it allows investors to outperform the market during downturns [2]. - Maintaining a balanced portfolio is crucial; even if one stock experiences temporary losses, it should not significantly impact the overall account performance if the portfolio is well-diversified [4]. - A deep understanding of a company's fundamentals is essential for making informed investment decisions, as many investors buy stocks based on trends or hearsay rather than thorough analysis [4]. Group 2: Market Analysis - The current market is characterized by volatility, making it easier to incur losses while generating profits is challenging. Investors are advised to learn diligently, review their strategies, and manage their positions carefully to avoid pitfalls associated with high-priced stocks [6]. - Technical analysis, particularly through K-line charts, is emphasized as a necessary skill for identifying buying signals and making timely decisions, regardless of personal biases towards specific stocks [6].

Market Overview - The major A-share indices showed mixed performance, with the ChiNext index performing relatively strong, while most stocks declined, indicating low market sentiment [1] - The market is expected to continue its adjustment phase, with the Shanghai Composite Index and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index both indicating a need for further corrections [3][6] Shanghai Composite Index Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a slight adjustment, forming a small bearish candle, signaling a need for correction [3] - The previous week's strong upward movement was accompanied by shrinking trading volume, suggesting insufficient upward momentum [3] - The index is currently in a mid-term adjustment phase, with two potential adjustment methods: either consolidating above recent lows or actively seeking to test the ten-week moving average [3] Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index Analysis - The Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index also showed signs of needing adjustment, with the previous week's strong performance not supported by increased trading volume [6] - The index is at a critical turning point on the weekly chart, indicating a need to test the ten-week moving average [6] - Similar to the Shanghai Composite Index, the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index is expected to continue its adjustment phase [6] Investment Strategy Insights - The current A-share market environment allows for structural opportunities as long as there are no significant declines in the major indices [7] - Successful trading requires adherence to trend trading principles to achieve stable wave profits, with a focus on analyzing candlestick patterns and structural breaks for entry points [7]

Market Index Analysis - The major A-share indices are undergoing a correction as expected, with individual stock enthusiasm significantly declining [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are highlighted for analysis, with a focus on the Shanghai 50 Index and the ChiNext Index in the afternoon [1] Shanghai 50 Index - The Shanghai 50 Index has shown long upper shadows in the past two trading days, indicating a clear signal for adjustment [3] - The recent upward cycle has reached a point of change, suggesting that the adjustment will last for several trading days [3] - A potential small rebound is anticipated in the afternoon, although the daily adjustment has just begun [3] ChiNext Index - The ChiNext Index has also released continuous adjustment signals in recent trading days, with an abnormal high opening and significant intraday gains [5] - A normal trend of retreat after a high is expected, with adjustments likely to continue for several trading days [5] Overall Market Sentiment - The current A-share market is characterized by structural trends in individual stocks as long as there is no significant market decline [5] - Emphasis is placed on the importance of trend trading to achieve stable wave profits, with a focus on K-line analysis and structural breakthroughs for entry points [5]

Market Overview - A-shares opened significantly higher on Wednesday morning due to positive news, with most stocks rising and high market sentiment observed [1] - The A-share market experienced a high open but subsequently declined [1] Index Analysis Shanghai Composite Index - The Shanghai 50 Index showed a clear high opening trend influenced by favorable news, but faced significant pressure due to a dense area of trapped capital, making a direct breakthrough unlikely without substantial volume [4] - The early morning trading indicated insufficient volume, and the index had already shown signs of adjustment the previous day, suggesting a high probability of further adjustments in the near term [4] - The first hour of the morning session saw five effective upward cycles, indicating a potential turning point, leading to expectations of a volatile adjustment in the afternoon [4] ChiNext Index - The ChiNext Index also opened significantly higher, reaching the upper limit of a previous gap, indicating substantial pressure for adjustment [8] - The daily moving averages showed a downward trend, with a significant divergence from the 60-day and half-year moving averages, complicating the adjustment process [8] - The first hour of the morning session recorded nine effective upward cycles, with the second hour marking a potential turning point, suggesting a likely volatile adjustment in the afternoon [8] Conclusion - The current A-share market is characterized by structural opportunities for individual stocks as long as the overall market does not experience a significant decline, emphasizing the importance of correct trend trading to avoid prolonged losses [9] - A systematic approach to trading, focusing on K-line analysis, patterns, and central structures, can help accurately capture price fluctuations and identify entry points during structural pullbacks [9]

Market Overview - The major indices of the A-share market opened positively on Tuesday morning, with most stocks rising and high market sentiment observed [1] - The afternoon session saw further upward movement in the A-share market [1] Index Analysis Shanghai Composite Index - The Shanghai 50 Index opened high but then dipped, reaching a low point before rebounding. The K-line pattern indicates a less favorable outlook at closing, but it is considered normal for the index to rise today as it marks the fifth effective cycle of recent adjustments, indicating a potential turning point [5] - The first hour of trading showed a long lower shadow with a small body, suggesting apparent strength but underlying weakness in the index's performance. The second hour also saw a rebound after a dip, with two hours remaining until the turning point, suggesting further upward movement in the afternoon [5] ChiNext Index - The ChiNext Index opened high and continued to rise, leaving a significant gap in the daily K-line. However, there are technical flaws, and a previous large gap remains unfilled, indicating a likelihood of adjustment after the rise [7] - The 20-day moving average is still declining and has not yet flattened, which restricts the ChiNext Index's ability to sustain continuous upward movement [7] - The first hour of trading was the fifth effective cycle of upward movement, indicating a turning point is approaching, and caution is advised for potential pullbacks in the afternoon session [7] Conclusion - The current A-share market is expected to see ongoing structural trends as long as there are no significant declines in the major indices. Correct trend trading is essential to avoid prolonged losses and achieve stable segment profits [8] - Analyzing K-lines, patterns, and central structures can help accurately grasp price fluctuations. Breakouts followed by pullbacks serve as entry points for gradual investments [8]

Market Index Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index has experienced ten effective upward cycles, indicating a potential turning point, leading to a normal adjustment phase [3] - The index is currently near the 60-day moving average and the half-year line, facing significant pressure, suggesting a continued adjustment period in the coming days [3] - The daily K-line shows a notable lower shadow, indicating a potential stabilization signal, but the index is not yet at a definitive adjustment point [3] Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index Analysis - The Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index formed a doji star, suggesting a potential short-term stabilization after two consecutive trading days of similar K-lines [5] - The index is in its fourth effective adjustment cycle, with a small turning point expected soon, but the rebound space is limited due to a low five-day moving average [5] - The weekly level indicates it is in the sixth effective adjustment cycle, with several weeks remaining before a new turning point, implying a continued adjustment phase [5] Overall Market Sentiment - The current A-share market is characterized by structural trends in individual stocks as long as the main index does not experience a significant decline [5] - Successful trend trading is essential for achieving stable segment profits, emphasizing the importance of analyzing K-lines, patterns, and central structures [5]