分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 软件资源行业领涨 A 股小幅上行 ——市场分析 相关报告 《市场分析：通信电子行业领涨 A 股震荡整 固》 2026-02-26 《市场分析：资源电池行业领涨 A 股震荡上 行》 2026-02-25 《市场分析：通信资源行业领涨 A 股震荡上 行》 2026-02-24 联系人： 李智 电话： 0371-65585629 地址： 郑州郑东新区商务外环路10号18楼 地址： 上海浦东新区世纪大道 1788 号 T1 座 22 楼 证券研究报告-市场分析 发布日期：2026 年 02 月 27 日 投资要点： ◼ A 股市场综述 周五（02 月 27 日）A 股市场低开高走、小幅震荡上行，早盘股指低 开后震荡上行，盘中沪指在 4162 点附近遭遇阻力，午后股指维持震 荡，盘中小金属、软件开发、IT 服务以及电力等行业表现较好；玻 璃玻纤、电子元件、造纸印刷以及电子化学品等行业表现较弱，沪 指全天基本呈现小幅震荡上行的运行特征。创业板市场周五震荡回 落，创业板成分指数全天表现弱于主板市场。 ◼ ...

- The growth-value rotation model suggests overweighting growth stocks this week, while the small-cap large-cap rotation model suggests overweighting small-cap stocks, leading to a comprehensive recommendation of small-cap growth style[3] - The short-term market timing signal has turned optimistic this week, with a positive outlook on the macro fundamentals, cautious on valuations, neutral on sentiment, and optimistic on liquidity[15][16] - The growth-value rotation model is based on the quantitative economic mid-cycle analysis framework, where a steep profit cycle slope, low comprehensive interest rate cycle level, and rising credit cycle favor growth style, while the opposite favors value style[27] - The small-cap large-cap rotation model is constructed from 11 effective rotation indicators, with the latest results maintaining a bullish stance on small-cap style due to the dispersion of market trading themes and improved small-cap price-volume trends[31] - The short-term market timing strategy has an annualized return of 16.64% since the end of 2012, with an annualized excess return of 11.60% and a maximum drawdown of only 15.05%, significantly outperforming the benchmark strategy[17][18] - The growth-value rotation strategy has an annualized return of 13.21% since the end of 2012, with an annualized excess return of 4.90%, significantly outperforming the benchmark strategy[28][30] - The small-cap large-cap rotation strategy has generated positive annual excess returns every year since 2014, with an annualized excess return of 1.93% in 2026 so far[32][33] Model Backtest Results - Short-term market timing strategy: Annualized return 16.64%, annualized volatility 14.80%, maximum drawdown 15.05%, Sharpe ratio 0.9793, return-drawdown ratio 1.1058, monthly win rate 66.46%, quarterly win rate 61.11%, annual win rate 80.00%[22] - Growth-value rotation strategy: Annualized return 13.21%, annualized volatility 20.77%, maximum drawdown 43.07%, Sharpe ratio 0.6058, return-drawdown ratio 0.3067, monthly win rate 58.60%, quarterly win rate 60.38%[30] - Small-cap large-cap rotation strategy: Annualized return 20.51%, annualized excess return 12.89%, maximum drawdown 40.70%, average turnover interval 20 trading days, win rate (by trade) 50.11%[33]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles discusses the potential performance of the A-share market and the implications for future investments, highlighting historical trends and the impact of market sentiment on stock movements [1][2] - Historical data indicates that while consecutive market gains can boost short-term sentiment, they often lead to subsequent periods of consolidation or correction, as seen in past instances of sustained market rallies [1] - The long-term upward trend of the stock market is supported by economic fundamentals and corporate value development, as evidenced by the recovery of the Japanese stock market post-2020 [1] Group 2 - The analysis emphasizes the importance of capital flow in influencing market movements, noting a significant increase in long-term capital participation, particularly from insurance companies, with their stock investment balance reaching 3.62 trillion yuan by Q3 2025, a nearly 50% increase from the end of 2024 [2] - Margin trading remains active, with a margin balance of 2.6 trillion yuan as of January 7, reflecting a 41% year-on-year growth, and financing buy-ins accounting for 11.47% of the total trading volume on that day [2] - Despite the lack of significant net inflows from foreign capital as of December 31, 2025, major institutions like Goldman Sachs express optimism about opportunities in the A-share market for 2026, indicating potential future foreign capital inflows [2]

Market Index Analysis - The A-share market showed mixed performance on Monday morning, with the ChiNext index underperforming and most stocks declining, indicating low market sentiment [1] - The Shanghai 50 index is at a critical turning point, having reached the ninth effective cycle of recent gains, with a need for sufficient turnover of shares at this high point [3] - The ChiNext index has experienced five consecutive days of gains but has not seen effective volume expansion, indicating a demand for slight adjustments [6] Trading Strategy Insights - The current A-share market is expected to continue structural trends as long as there is no significant decline in the main index, emphasizing the importance of trend trading for stable profits [6] - The analysis of K-lines, patterns, and central structures can help accurately grasp price fluctuations, with pullbacks after structural breakthroughs serving as entry points for gradual investments [6]

Market Index Analysis - The major A-share indices showed mixed performance on Monday, with expectations for upward movement in the afternoon session, which aligned with the actual market behavior [1] - The analysis focused on the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext 50 Index, indicating a potential for upward movement in the Shanghai Composite Index [1][2] Shanghai Composite Index - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a rebound after hitting a low, with a daily candlestick showing a strong entity and a notable lower shadow, suggesting short-term upward momentum may be insufficient [4] - The previous day's candlestick also indicated a potential adjustment signal, with consistent signals over the last two trading days [4] - Short-term projections suggest a possible rise to 4025 unless a significant bullish candlestick pattern emerges to alleviate adjustment pressure [4] ChiNext 50 Index - The ChiNext 50 Index displayed a small candlestick with a long upper shadow last Friday, indicating a clear adjustment signal, which continued into the current session [7] - The closing candlestick for today also showed a small entity and a long lower shadow, reinforcing the adjustment signal, with expectations for further adjustments on Tuesday [7] - The hourly chart indicated a series of downward movements followed by a slight rebound, but the upward movement was limited [7] Overall Market Sentiment - The current A-share market is characterized by structural trends in individual stocks as long as the overall market does not experience significant declines [8] - Successful trading relies on correctly identifying trends, with a focus on K-line analysis, patterns, and central structures to accurately gauge price fluctuations [8] - The strategy emphasizes entering positions during pullbacks after structural breakouts, highlighting the importance of trend trading for stable profits [8]

Market Overview - The major indices of the A-share market experienced a rebound after hitting a low, with most stocks declining and 10 stocks hitting the limit down, indicating low market sentiment [1] - In the afternoon, there was a slight upward movement in the A-share market [1] Index Analysis Shanghai Composite Index - The Shanghai 50 Index showed a significant increase last Thursday, but the corresponding trading volume shrank, indicating a potential adjustment signal [5] - Today marks the fourth effective cycle, with today and tomorrow being critical turning points, suggesting the index is in an adjustment phase [5] - The first hour of trading saw eight effective cycles, with the second hour marking the ninth effective cycle, leading to a rebound [5] - The afternoon session saw limited upward movement in the Shanghai 50 Index, with caution advised against potential pullbacks [5] ChiNext Index - The ChiNext Index also showed a significant increase last Thursday, but with declining trading volume and a pullback on Friday, indicating ongoing adjustment signals [8] - Today opened high and continued to rise, which contradicts previous signals, suggesting a potential for high-level fluctuations over the next two trading days until a turning point is reached [8] - The first hour of trading last Friday marked a turning point, leading to two hours of upward movement, with expectations of continued fluctuations in the afternoon [8] Conclusion - The current A-share market is likely to see structural trends in individual stocks as long as the major indices do not experience significant declines [8] - Successful trading requires correct trend identification to avoid prolonged losses, emphasizing the importance of trend trading for stable profits [8] - The analysis of K-lines, patterns, and central structures can help accurately grasp price fluctuations, with structural breakouts followed by pullbacks serving as entry points [8]

Group 1 - The report indicates that trading sentiment is warming up, with asset linkage indicators showing a recovery from historical lows. The equity risk premium (ERP) is currently below one standard deviation, suggesting improved relative value for stocks compared to bonds [2][19]. - The overall A-share index PE valuation stands at 20.4, with most broad-based indices having PE valuations above the 50% historical percentile, while the ChiNext index is at a low historical percentile of around 15% [2][20]. - The report highlights a rise in trading activity, with turnover rates and transaction volumes increasing compared to the previous month, indicating sustained market enthusiasm [2][27]. Group 2 - The report notes that the proportion of stocks above the 50-week moving average has increased to 82.58%, indicating a positive trend in individual stock performance [38]. - The buyback scale has risen to 14.837 billion, reflecting a trend where companies are repurchasing shares, often seen as a sign of confidence in their valuation [41]. - The net reduction in industrial capital reached 30.359 billion, indicating a widening scope of capital reduction compared to the previous month, which may reflect concerns about stock valuations [45]. Group 3 - The report states that the equity risk premium (ERP) is at 3.20%, which is below the historical average and indicates a potential for upward movement in stock valuations [19]. - The market configuration indicators show a high degree of valuation dispersion, with the valuation variation coefficient at 0.835, suggesting a relatively high risk environment [24]. - The report emphasizes that 90% of industries are showing positive monthly trends, indicating a broad-based recovery in market sentiment [35].

Group 1 - The report indicates that trading sentiment is gradually warming up, with market allocation indicators continuously improving and asset linkage indicators remaining at historical extreme levels [2] - The relative value of stocks compared to bonds is at historical extremes, with the equity risk premium (ERP) near one standard deviation [2][4] - The overall A-share index PE valuation is at 19.9, with most broad-based index PE valuations above the 50% historical percentile, while the ChiNext index PE valuation is around the 10% historical percentile, indicating relative undervaluation [2][17] Group 2 - Trading indicators have shown a month-on-month recovery, suggesting that market trading sentiment is gradually warming from a stage bottom [2] - The proportion of stocks above the 50-week moving average has increased compared to the previous month, indicating a positive trend in individual stocks [2][34] - The monthly maximum daily trading volume accounted for 47% of the previous high, showing a recovery in market trading activity [2][28] Group 3 - The report highlights that the net reduction of industrial capital reached 19.475 billion yuan in June 2025, indicating an increase in the scale of net reduction compared to the previous month [2][40] - The three major funding entities' indicators have shown a recovery, with financing balances and newly established fund shares increasing compared to the previous month [2][43] - The stock repurchase scale has decreased to 12.612 billion yuan, reflecting a decline in repurchase activity compared to May [2][37]

Market Overview - On June 17, the A-share market experienced slight fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 3392 points[3] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3387.40 points, down 0.04%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10151.43 points, down 0.12%[9] - Total trading volume for both markets was 12,438 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous trading day[9] Sector Performance - Strong performing sectors included batteries, consumer electronics, shipping ports, and medical devices, while jewelry, gaming, biopharmaceuticals, and cultural media sectors lagged[4] - Over 50% of stocks in the two markets declined, with mining, batteries, shipping ports, gas, and energy metals showing the highest gains[9] Valuation and Investment Strategy - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 13.90 times and 37.06 times, respectively, indicating a mid-level valuation over the past three years, suitable for medium to long-term investments[4] - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in consumer electronics, batteries, shipping ports, and medical devices in the short term[4] Economic Context - China's economy continues to show moderate recovery, with consumption and investment as core drivers[4] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may implement its next interest rate cut as early as September, contributing to a more accommodative overseas liquidity environment[4] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected overseas economic downturns, domestic policy and economic recovery delays, and international relations changes affecting the economic environment[5]

Group 1 - The major indices of the A-share market are expected to adjust after a period of optimism following favorable news announcements [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are highlighted for analysis, with a focus on their recent performance and potential adjustments [2][6] - The Shanghai 50 Index shows signs of adjustment with a notable reduction in trading volume, indicating insufficient upward momentum [5][8] Group 2 - The ChiNext Index has experienced a relatively strong performance but lacks significant trading volume, suggesting limited upward momentum [8] - Both indices are at critical turning points, with the potential for further adjustments in the near term [5][8] - The current A-share market environment allows for structural opportunities in individual stocks, provided the overall trend remains stable [8]