美联储卡什卡利：在我所在的辖区，K 型经济似乎仍然属实。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Market Performance - The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose about 0.4% for the week, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 0.7%, and the S&P 500 closed little changed [1] - All three major indexes are within 3% of their record highs as they enter the final seven trading sessions of 2025 [1] Consumer Sentiment - American consumers are entering the holidays with less joy compared to last year, with the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index at 52.9, which is 28.5% below last December's reading [4] - The K-shaped economy narrative is significant, indicating a divide among American shoppers, with affluent households thriving while lower-income households face challenges [6][7] Housing Market - Housing sales increased for the third consecutive month in November, but 2025 sales are projected to finish at a 25-year low according to the National Association of Realtors [5] Consumer Spending - Consumer spending has remained stable in the latter half of the year, primarily driven by households in the upper third of incomes, while about a quarter of households are living paycheck to paycheck [6] Inflation Data - The November inflation reading showed a 2.7% increase in prices over the last 12 months, significantly below expectations, which may encourage the Federal Reserve to consider further rate cuts in the upcoming year [8]

证券研究报告：宏观报告 研究所 分析师:李起 SAC 登记编号:S1340524110001 Email:liqi2@cnpsec.com 研究助理:高晓洁 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020001 Email:gaoxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《全球流动性处于何种水平？---数量 篇》 - 2025.12.08 宏观观点 海外宏观周报：美联储未来降息路径分歧加大 ⚫ 核心观点： 在 12 月的议息会议上，美联储如期降息 25bp，但点阵图中值显 示，26、27 年各仅有一次降息，同时与会者对于利率水平预测的分布 更加分散，反映出政策路径不确定性上升，未来多种情景并存。我们 认为，2026 年的降息幅度将超出市场预期，联邦基金目标利率终值有 望降至 3%以下。 当前市场对"关税改善财政状况"已经充分认可，但 1 月最高法 院有较大概率判定关税无效，市场可能重新聚焦美国财政可持续性问 题。为降低长端利率，短端利率必须"有克制"地下降更多，即节奏 上慢于预期，幅度上大于预期。 今年以来美股企业盈利持续超预期，显著推升居民部门财富效 应，却也掩盖了巨大的结构性差异。美股上涨带来的财富效 ...

Core Insights - The total debt burden for American households reached a record $18.59 trillion in Q3 2025, increasing by $197 billion from the previous quarter [1] - Mortgages constitute the largest portion of household debt at $13.07 trillion, approximately 70% of the total debt [2] - 90% of Americans carry some form of debt, with the average cumulative debt amount being around $104,755 [3] Debt Composition - Mortgages are the primary driver of household debt, but rising credit card debt and student loans are concerning [5] - Auto loans amount to $1.66 trillion, student loans total $1.65 trillion, and credit card balances are at $1.23 trillion [2] Economic Implications - The stabilization of mortgage delinquencies at a low rate suggests that many American households maintain robust balance sheets despite increasing debt [5] - The delinquency rate for student loans has risen to 9.4%, up from 7.8% in Q1 2025, indicating stress among younger and lower-income borrowers [6] - The combination of high student loan debt and rising credit card payments points to significant economic stress, supporting the notion of a "K-shaped economy" [7]

Core Economic Insights - The Federal Reserve's acknowledgment of a K-shaped economy highlights the disparity between low-income consumers, who are downgrading their consumption, and high-income individuals, who continue to spend lavishly [3][5] - The aggressive interest rate hikes initiated in 2022 have led to a significant divide in consumer spending, with low-income groups experiencing stagnation or decline in credit card spending, while high-income groups drive overall credit card consumption growth [5][7] Consumer Behavior - Research indicates that a 1% increase in the federal funds rate results in a 0.9% decrease in credit card spending, disproportionately affecting lower-income consumers who face a twofold reduction in spending compared to higher-income individuals [7] - As of November 2025, the 30-day delinquency rate on credit cards reached 4.8%, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis, while the bad debt rate for buy-now-pay-later services surged to 9.5% [7] Corporate Sector Dynamics - Capital expenditures in the AI sector are primarily concentrated among tech giants like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, which possess substantial cash reserves, while small businesses struggle under high-interest rates [8][10] - The National Federation of Independent Business reported that small business confidence has remained below the 50-year average for 22 consecutive months, with credit access at its most challenging level since the European debt crisis in 2012 [10] Wealth Distribution and Policy Implications - The wealth concentration in the U.S. is stark, with the top 1% holding over 32% of the nation's wealth, while the bottom 50% possess only 2.5% [10][12] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate policies have inadvertently exacerbated wealth inequality, benefiting wealthy savers while placing a heavier burden on low-income borrowers [12][18] Future Outlook - A potential interest rate cut in the first half of 2026 is anticipated, but it is expected to be cautious and gradual rather than aggressive [14][16] - The impact of any rate cuts will likely be uneven, providing relief to lower-income consumers and small businesses while potentially inflating asset values for the wealthy [16][18] Structural Solutions - Long-term solutions to the K-shaped economy require fiscal policy changes, including a fairer tax system and targeted social transfers, which are currently hindered by political divisions [18][20]

Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin has fallen to its lowest level since May, trading below $100,000, marking a 20% decline over the past month [1][2] - Currently priced under $95,000, Bitcoin is at its lowest level in six months after reaching an all-time high of $126,000 in October [2] Warner Brothers Discovery - Warner Brothers Discovery is involved in a bidding war with Comcast, Netflix, and Paramount Sky Dance, with shares up approximately 115% year-to-date [3] Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in December have decreased, with odds falling below 50% due to recent commentary from Fed officials [4][5] - Minneapolis Fed President expressed concerns that further rate cuts could exacerbate inflation rather than support the job market [5][6] Upcoming Earnings Reports - Nvidia is set to report earnings, with expectations of $123 per share and revenues of $54.5 billion, indicating over 50% growth from the previous year [7][8] - A range of retail companies, including Target, Walmart, and Gap, will also report earnings, providing insights into consumer spending habits [8] Chinese ADRs Performance - Despite poor economic indicators, Chinese ADRs like JD and Tencent have performed well, with Xpong seeing significant gains of over 100% year-to-date [9][10][11] - Upcoming earnings reports from companies like Pinduoduo and Xiaomi are anticipated, with Pinduoduo facing market share challenges [11][12]