Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The core contradictions affecting the LPG price trend include cost - end crude oil facing supply - surplus pressure and geopolitical disturbances, with prices oscillating between $63 - 65 this week and a slightly lower price center; the CP November contract price showing supply - side pressure; the US propane inventory at a historical high and demand being seasonally weak; and the domestic fundamental situation with a slight contraction in supply and relatively strong chemical demand [2][5]. - There are both negative and positive factors. Negative factors are the continuous losses in the domestic PDH sector and the shrinking Asian cracking profit which may reduce the demand for PG as a cracking substitute. Positive factors are the potential avoidance of a US government shutdown and the supply - decrease and demand - increase in the fundamentals this week, along with a rebound in civil gas prices [5]. Summaries by Catalog LPG Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for LPG is 4000 - 4500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.77% and a 3 - year historical percentage of 9.53% [1]. LPG Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - When inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, for a long - position in the spot market, it is recommended to short the PG2512 futures at 25% hedging ratio with an entry range of 4400 - 4500 to lock in profits and cover production costs, and sell the PG2512C4400 call option at 25% hedging ratio with an entry range of 60 - 70 to collect premiums and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises [1]. Procurement Management - When the procurement of regular inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for a short - position in the spot market, it is recommended to buy the PG2512 futures at 25% hedging ratio around 4000 to lock in procurement costs, and sell the PG2512P4000 put option at 25% hedging ratio with an entry range of 50 - 70 to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the PG price drops [1]. Industry Data Summary - The data shows the prices, spreads, month - spreads, ratios, and profits of various LPG - related products on different dates from November 4 to November 11, 2025, including Brent, WTI, MOPJ, FEI, CP, etc., along with their daily and weekly changes [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The current core contradictions affecting the LPG price trend include cost - side crude oil being under supply - surplus pressure and geopolitical disturbances, leading to increased volatility; the CP October contract price dropping unexpectedly, with propane at $495/ton (-$25) and butane at $475/ton (-$15), and the November price expected to decline further; Sino - US relations being uncertain despite an overall positive trend; the domestic LPG fundamental situation having minor changes, with increased civil gas supply suppressing spot prices, stable chemical demand, and weak combustion demand. There are also some positive factors such as the good Sino - US negotiations and the demand support from FN spread and relatively good propane cracking profit [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs LPG Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for LPG is 4000 - 4500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 21.85% and a 3 - year historical percentage of 37.75% [1] LPG Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - When inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, for a long spot position, it is recommended to short PG2512 futures to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry range of 4400 - 4500. Also, sell PG2512C4400 call options to collect premiums and reduce costs, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry range of 60 - 70 [1] Procurement Management - When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for a short spot position, it is recommended to buy PG2512 futures at a low price on the disk to lock in procurement costs, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry range of 3800 - 4000. Also, sell PG2512P4000 put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry range of 50 - 70 [1] Industry Data Summary - Various data including prices, spreads, monthly spreads, ratios, and profits are presented. For example, on October 29, 2025, Brent was at $64.3, WTI at $60.36, and the LPG main contract closing price was 4312. There are also details about differentials such as FEI - MOPJ M1, LPG - FEI, etc., and profit data like盘面进口利润 - FEI and Asian propane cracking profit [5] Seasonal Data - There are numerous seasonal data presented, such as FEI M1, CP M1, MB M1, NWE C3 M1 price seasonality; FEI, CP, MB, LPG cheapest delivery product price and basis seasonality; various spread, monthly spread, ratio, and profit seasonality; and freight and Panama Canal water - level seasonality [7][10][59]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradictions affecting the LPG price trend include supply - demand imbalances, geopolitical issues, and cost - end fluctuations. Cost - end crude oil is under pressure from supply surplus and geopolitical disturbances, leading to increased volatility. The CP contract price in October dropped unexpectedly, and the external market remains weak. There are concerns about supply due to issues related to the US and Iran. The domestic fundamentals have little change, with increased civil gas supply suppressing spot prices, stable chemical demand, and weak combustion demand [2]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the LPG market. The expansion of PDH profits supports demand to some extent, and the widening of the FN spread may attract some cracking demand. However, there are also negative factors affecting the market [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LPG Price Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for LPG is 3800 - 4400. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 21.91%, and the historical percentage of the current volatility over 3 years is 34.05% [1]. LPG Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For companies with high inventory worried about price drops, they can short PG2511 futures with a 25% hedging ratio in the 4400 - 4500 range to lock in profits. They can also sell PG2511C4400 call options with a 25% ratio in the 60 - 70 range to collect premiums and reduce costs [1]. Procurement Management - For companies with low regular inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy PG2511 futures with a 25% hedging ratio in the 3800 - 4000 range to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell PG2511P3800 put options with a 25% ratio in the 50 - 70 range to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [1]. Industry Data - Various price data for LPG and related products are provided, including Brent, WTI, MOPJ, FEI, CP, etc., along with their daily and weekly changes. For example, on October 21, 2025, Brent was at 61.36, with a daily increase of 0.56 and a weekly decrease of 0.92 [3]. - Different spread data such as FEI - MOPJ M1, LPG - FEI, etc., are presented, showing their daily and weekly changes. For instance, the LPG - FEI spread was 180.88 on October 21, 2025, with a daily decrease of 2.63 and a weekly increase of 47.14 [6]. - Month - spread data for LPG and related products are given, like LPG11 - 12 and LPG12 - 1. The LPG11 - 12 month - spread was 146 on October 21, 2025, with a daily increase of 4 and a weekly decrease of 11 [6]. - Ratio data such as MB/WTI and FEI/Brent are provided, along with their daily and weekly changes. The MB/WTI ratio was 0.46 on October 21, 2025, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 0.01 [6]. - Both盘面 and spot profit data are presented, including PDH盘面 profits based on different benchmarks (PG, FEI, CP) and Asian naphtha and propane cracking profits. For example, the PDH盘面 profit - FEI was 366.36 on October 21, 2025, with a daily increase of 20.73 and a weekly increase of 88.12 [6]. - Freight data for different routes (Middle East to Far East, US to Europe, etc.) are provided, showing their daily and weekly changes. The Middle East to Far East freight was 59.333 on October 21, 2025, with a daily decrease of 0.5 and a weekly decrease of 3.167 [6]. Seasonal Data - Seasonal data for various factors are presented, including price, spread, month - spread, ratio, profit, and freight. For example, there are seasonal charts for FEI, CP, MB prices, LPG futures prices, and different spreads like FEI - MOPJ M1, PG - FEI, etc. [7][9][10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The core contradictions affecting the LPG price trend include cost - end crude oil fluctuations due to supply surplus and geopolitical issues, an unexpected decline in the CP October contract price, the recurrence of Sino - US contradictions, and a loose domestic market with stable supply - demand and weak combustion demand [2] - Bullish factors include a small rebound in the crude oil market, the expansion of PDH profits supporting demand, and the widening FN spread attracting cracking demand [3] - Bearish factors are the persistent supply surplus of crude oil in the fourth quarter and the weak performance of both the outer - market propane and domestic spot [2] Summary by Related Catalogs LPG Price and Volatility - The monthly price range prediction for LPG is 3800 - 4200, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 21.39% and a 3 - year historical percentage of 37.37% [1] LPG Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For high inventory and fear of price drops, sell PG2511 futures at a 25% hedging ratio in the 4400 - 4500 range to lock in profits and sell PG2511C4400 call options at a 25% ratio in the 60 - 70 range to reduce costs [1] Procurement Management - For low procurement inventory, buy PG2511 futures at a 25% hedging ratio in the 3800 - 4000 range to lock in procurement costs and sell PG2511P3800 put options at a 25% ratio in the 50 - 70 range to reduce costs [1] Industry Data Price - Brent crude was at $63.39 on October 13, 2025, up $1.3 from the previous day and down $2.76 from the week - ago level. WTI was at $59.14, up $1.3 and down $2.88 respectively [5] - LPG's main contract closed at 4082 yuan/ton on October 13, 2025, up 12 yuan from the previous day and down 155 yuan from the week - ago level [5] Spread - FEI - MOPJ M1 was - 86.30 on October 13, 2025, down 19.43 from the previous day and 14.67 from the week - ago level [5] - LPG - FEI was 49.85, up 150.25 from the previous day and 198.37 from the week - ago level [5] Monthly Spread - LPG11 - 12 was 107 on October 13, 2025, up 29 from the previous day and the week - ago level [5] - FEI M1 - M2 was - 13.63, down 0.38 from the previous day and up 0.63 from the week - ago level [5] Ratio - MB/WTI was 0.44 on October 13, 2025, down 0.03 from the previous day and up 0.01 from the week - ago level [5] - FEI/Brent was 0.60, down 0.03 from the previous day and 0.02 from the week - ago level [5] Disk Profit - The disk import profit - FEI was - 400.55 on October 13, 2025, up 14.53 from the previous day and down 152.04 from the week - ago level [5] - The PDH disk profit - PG was 278.7, down 42.8 from the previous day and up 19.25 from the week - ago level [5] Spot Profit - The Asian naphtha cracking profit was - 32.4996 on October 13, 2025, up 7.99 from the previous day and 17.54 from the week - ago level [5] - The Asian propane cracking profit was 47.0266, up 30.56 from the previous day and 53.52 from the week - ago level [5] Freight - The freight from the Middle East to the Far East was 62.667 on October 13, 2025, down 1 from the previous day and 7.5 from the week - ago level [5] - The freight from the US to Europe was 67.5, down 1.5 from the previous day and 11.625 from the week - ago level [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term LPG prices are mainly affected by the crude oil end, with geopolitical and supply - demand issues intertwined to influence the market, while the fundamentals remain largely unchanged [4] - The Houthi armed forces and the US - Venezuela issue have increased the risk premium of crude oil [5] - Crude oil is under downward pressure in the future due to increasing supply and decreasing demand; OPEC+ may increase production at the September meeting; US oil inventory data is bearish [9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 LPG Price and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for LPG is 4200 - 4500, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 11.58%, and the historical percentage of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 0.52% [3] 3.2 LPG Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - When inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, for long - position in the spot market, it is recommended to short PG2510 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 4400 - 4500 to prevent inventory depreciation and lock in profits; also, sell PG2510C4500 call options with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 40 - 60 to collect premiums and reduce costs [3] Procurement Management - When the procurement of regular inventory is low and one wants to purchase based on orders, for short - position in the spot market, it is recommended to buy PG2510 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 4200 - 4300 to prevent price increases and lock in procurement costs; also, sell PG2510P4200 put options with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 20 - 30 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [3] 3.3 Industry Data Summary - **Price Data**: On September 4, 2025, Brent was at 66.88 (down 0.51 from the previous day and 0.77 from the previous week), WTI at 63.34 (down 0.43 and 0.98 respectively), and LPG's main contract closed at 4368 (down 48 and 41 respectively) [8][10] - **Spread Data**: For example, the LPG - FEI spread was 478.56 (down 36.11 from the previous day and 121.37 from the previous week), and the LPG - CP spread was 112.77 (down 68.13 and 259.39 respectively) [10] - **Month - spread Data**: The LPG08 - 09 month - spread was 392 (down 38 from the previous day and up 60 from the previous week), and the LPG09 - 10 month - spread was - 641 (up 55 and down 41 respectively) [10] - **Ratio Data**: The MB/WTI ratio was 0.48 (up 0.03 from the previous day and down 0.01 from the previous week), and the FEI/Brent ratio was 0.66 (unchanged from the previous day and up 0.03 from the previous week) [10] - **Profit Data**: The LPG's盘面 import profit - FEI was - 336.84 (down 44.37 from the previous day and 40.29 from the previous week), and the PDH盘面 profit - PG was 195.8 (up 40.2 and down 33.85 respectively) [10] - **Freight Data**: The freight from the Middle East to the Far East was 74.667 (down 3.833 from the previous day and 9.166 from the previous week), from the US to Europe was 76.5 (down 0.625 and 4.5 respectively), and from the US Gulf to the Far East was 139 (down 1.333 and 9.417 respectively) [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the LPG market is mainly affected by the crude oil end, with geopolitical and supply - demand issues intertwining to influence the market; the fundamentals have not changed much [4]. - The Houthi armed forces and the US - Venezuela issue have pushed up the risk premium of crude oil [5]. - Against the background of increasing supply and decreasing demand for crude oil, there is still downward pressure in the future; the domestic fundamentals remain loose, with few refinery overhauls and a relatively abundant supply of liquefied gas; there is not much change on the demand side; OPEC+ may increase production at the September meeting [9]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 LPG Price and Volatility - The monthly price range prediction for LPG is 4200 - 4500, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 10.91%, and the historical percentage of the current volatility over 3 years is 0.15% [2]. 3.2 LPG Hedging Strategies 3.2.1 Inventory Management - When inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops (long in the spot market), to prevent inventory depreciation losses, companies can short PG2510 futures according to their inventory levels to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and a recommended entry range of 4400 - 4500; they can also sell the PG2510C4500 call option to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 60 - 80 [2]. 3.2.2 Procurement Management - When the procurement of regular inventory is low and procurement is based on orders (short in the spot market), to prevent the increase in procurement costs due to rising PG prices, companies can buy PG2510 futures at lower prices on the market to lock in procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 4200 - 4300; they can also sell the PG2510P4200 put option to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the PG price drops, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 20 - 30 [2]. 3.3 Industry Data Aggregation - Various price data including Brent, WTI, MOPJ M1, MOPJ spot, NWE NAP M1, NWE NAP spot, etc., show daily and weekly changes. For example, Brent was at 67.39 on September 3, 2025, down 1.68 from the previous day and up 0.19 from the previous week [8]. - There are also data on spreads, such as FEI - MOPJ M1, NWE C3 - NAP, etc., and their corresponding daily and weekly changes [10]. - Information on monthly spreads like LPG08 - 09, LPG09 - 10, etc., and their daily and weekly changes [10]. - Ratio data including MB/WTI, FEI/Brent, etc., along with their daily and weekly changes [10]. - Data on both盘面 and spot profits, such as盘面import profit - FEI, Asian naphtha cracking profit, etc., and their daily and weekly changes [10]. - Freight data including the Middle East to the Far East, the US to Europe, etc., and their daily and weekly changes [10].

Report Information - Report Name: LPG Industry Risk Management Daily Report [2] - Date: August 19, 2025 [3] - Analysts: Dai Yifan (Investment Consulting Certificate: Z0015428), Shen Weiwei (F03140197) [3] Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - The marginal improvement in demand is difficult to offset the suppression of warehouse receipts. As of August 19, the LPG warehouse receipts on the Dalian Commodity Exchange were 13,318 lots (+440) [4]. - On the demand side, there is a marginal improvement. The PDH sector is expected to operate at 75%-80% due to profit repair, which is a high level this year and seasonally. The MTBE sector is supported by exports, with the operating rate remaining at a phased high of around 65%. The alkylation oil operating rate has also slightly increased to around 50%, which is a seasonal high [5]. - On the cost side, the crude oil market has shifted to a sideways trend after consecutive days of decline, and demand will also weaken seasonally. The overseas propane market is also under pressure due to high exports. On the supply side, the domestic major refineries are operating at a high level, while the local refineries are gradually recovering from a low level. On the inventory side, the port inventory remains high due to high arrivals [6]. Content Summaries LPG Price and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for LPG is 3,750 - 4,400. The current 20-day rolling volatility is 15.47%, and the historical percentage of the current volatility in the past three years is 5.99% [3]. LPG Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For high inventory and concerns about price drops, sell PG2510 futures at a 50% hedging ratio when the price is between 4,400 - 4,500 to lock in profits and cover production costs. Also, sell PG2510C4500 call options at a 25% hedging ratio when the price is between 60 - 80 to collect premiums and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises [3]. Procurement Management - For low procurement inventory and the need to purchase based on orders, buy PG2509 futures at a 25% hedging ratio when the price is between 3,600 - 3,700 to lock in procurement costs. Also, sell PG2509P3600 put options at a 25% hedging ratio when the price is between 8 - 10 to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the PG price drops [3]. Industry Data Price Data - Brent crude oil closed at $65.42, down $0.47 from the previous day and $0.69 from a week ago. WTI crude oil closed at $62, down $0.58 from the previous day and $1.08 from a week ago. The LPG main contract closed at 3,852 yuan, up 1 yuan from the previous day and 26 yuan from a week ago [7]. Warehouse Receipts and Basis - The LPG warehouse receipts on the Dalian Commodity Exchange were 13,318 lots, an increase of 440 lots from the previous day and 344 lots from a week ago. The LPG basis was 488 yuan, down 21 yuan from the previous day and 46 yuan from a week ago [8]. Spread, Month Spread, and Ratio - Various spreads, month spreads, and ratios are provided in the report, including FEI - MOPJ M1, LPG - FEI, LPG08 - 09, MB/WTI, etc., with their respective daily and weekly changes [7][8]. Profit Data - The report provides data on various profit indicators, such as the LPG import profit, PDH profit, and Asian cracking profit, with their respective daily and weekly changes [8]. Freight Data - Freight rates from the Middle East to the Far East, the United States to Europe, and the US Gulf to the Far East are provided, along with their daily and weekly changes [8].