沈玮玮（F03140197） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 LPG日报 LPG产业风险管理日报 2025/09/04 戴一帆（投资咨询证书：Z0015428） LPG价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分比（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LPG | 4200-4500 | 11.58% | 0.52% | source： 同花顺,南华研究 LPG套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 库存过高，担心价格 下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的 库存情况，做空PG期货来锁定利润，弥补 企业的生产成本 | PG2510 | 卖出 | 50% | 4400-4500 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成本，若现 货价格上涨还可以锁定卖出价格 | PG2510C4 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the LPG market is mainly affected by the crude oil end, with geopolitical and supply - demand issues intertwining to influence the market; the fundamentals have not changed much [4]. - The Houthi armed forces and the US - Venezuela issue have pushed up the risk premium of crude oil [5]. - Against the background of increasing supply and decreasing demand for crude oil, there is still downward pressure in the future; the domestic fundamentals remain loose, with few refinery overhauls and a relatively abundant supply of liquefied gas; there is not much change on the demand side; OPEC+ may increase production at the September meeting [9]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 LPG Price and Volatility - The monthly price range prediction for LPG is 4200 - 4500, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 10.91%, and the historical percentage of the current volatility over 3 years is 0.15% [2]. 3.2 LPG Hedging Strategies 3.2.1 Inventory Management - When inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops (long in the spot market), to prevent inventory depreciation losses, companies can short PG2510 futures according to their inventory levels to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and a recommended entry range of 4400 - 4500; they can also sell the PG2510C4500 call option to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 60 - 80 [2]. 3.2.2 Procurement Management - When the procurement of regular inventory is low and procurement is based on orders (short in the spot market), to prevent the increase in procurement costs due to rising PG prices, companies can buy PG2510 futures at lower prices on the market to lock in procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 4200 - 4300; they can also sell the PG2510P4200 put option to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the PG price drops, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 20 - 30 [2]. 3.3 Industry Data Aggregation - Various price data including Brent, WTI, MOPJ M1, MOPJ spot, NWE NAP M1, NWE NAP spot, etc., show daily and weekly changes. For example, Brent was at 67.39 on September 3, 2025, down 1.68 from the previous day and up 0.19 from the previous week [8]. - There are also data on spreads, such as FEI - MOPJ M1, NWE C3 - NAP, etc., and their corresponding daily and weekly changes [10]. - Information on monthly spreads like LPG08 - 09, LPG09 - 10, etc., and their daily and weekly changes [10]. - Ratio data including MB/WTI, FEI/Brent, etc., along with their daily and weekly changes [10]. - Data on both盘面 and spot profits, such as盘面import profit - FEI, Asian naphtha cracking profit, etc., and their daily and weekly changes [10]. - Freight data including the Middle East to the Far East, the US to Europe, etc., and their daily and weekly changes [10].

Report Information - Report Name: LPG Industry Risk Management Daily Report [2] - Date: August 19, 2025 [3] - Analysts: Dai Yifan (Investment Consulting Certificate: Z0015428), Shen Weiwei (F03140197) [3] Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - The marginal improvement in demand is difficult to offset the suppression of warehouse receipts. As of August 19, the LPG warehouse receipts on the Dalian Commodity Exchange were 13,318 lots (+440) [4]. - On the demand side, there is a marginal improvement. The PDH sector is expected to operate at 75%-80% due to profit repair, which is a high level this year and seasonally. The MTBE sector is supported by exports, with the operating rate remaining at a phased high of around 65%. The alkylation oil operating rate has also slightly increased to around 50%, which is a seasonal high [5]. - On the cost side, the crude oil market has shifted to a sideways trend after consecutive days of decline, and demand will also weaken seasonally. The overseas propane market is also under pressure due to high exports. On the supply side, the domestic major refineries are operating at a high level, while the local refineries are gradually recovering from a low level. On the inventory side, the port inventory remains high due to high arrivals [6]. Content Summaries LPG Price and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for LPG is 3,750 - 4,400. The current 20-day rolling volatility is 15.47%, and the historical percentage of the current volatility in the past three years is 5.99% [3]. LPG Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For high inventory and concerns about price drops, sell PG2510 futures at a 50% hedging ratio when the price is between 4,400 - 4,500 to lock in profits and cover production costs. Also, sell PG2510C4500 call options at a 25% hedging ratio when the price is between 60 - 80 to collect premiums and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises [3]. Procurement Management - For low procurement inventory and the need to purchase based on orders, buy PG2509 futures at a 25% hedging ratio when the price is between 3,600 - 3,700 to lock in procurement costs. Also, sell PG2509P3600 put options at a 25% hedging ratio when the price is between 8 - 10 to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the PG price drops [3]. Industry Data Price Data - Brent crude oil closed at $65.42, down $0.47 from the previous day and $0.69 from a week ago. WTI crude oil closed at $62, down $0.58 from the previous day and $1.08 from a week ago. The LPG main contract closed at 3,852 yuan, up 1 yuan from the previous day and 26 yuan from a week ago [7]. Warehouse Receipts and Basis - The LPG warehouse receipts on the Dalian Commodity Exchange were 13,318 lots, an increase of 440 lots from the previous day and 344 lots from a week ago. The LPG basis was 488 yuan, down 21 yuan from the previous day and 46 yuan from a week ago [8]. Spread, Month Spread, and Ratio - Various spreads, month spreads, and ratios are provided in the report, including FEI - MOPJ M1, LPG - FEI, LPG08 - 09, MB/WTI, etc., with their respective daily and weekly changes [7][8]. Profit Data - The report provides data on various profit indicators, such as the LPG import profit, PDH profit, and Asian cracking profit, with their respective daily and weekly changes [8]. Freight Data - Freight rates from the Middle East to the Far East, the United States to Europe, and the US Gulf to the Far East are provided, along with their daily and weekly changes [8].