Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The core contradictions affecting the LPG price trend include cost - end crude oil facing supply - surplus pressure and geopolitical disturbances, with prices oscillating between $63 - 65 this week and a slightly lower price center; the CP November contract price showing supply - side pressure; the US propane inventory at a historical high and demand being seasonally weak; and the domestic fundamental situation with a slight contraction in supply and relatively strong chemical demand [2][5]. - There are both negative and positive factors. Negative factors are the continuous losses in the domestic PDH sector and the shrinking Asian cracking profit which may reduce the demand for PG as a cracking substitute. Positive factors are the potential avoidance of a US government shutdown and the supply - decrease and demand - increase in the fundamentals this week, along with a rebound in civil gas prices [5]. Summaries by Catalog LPG Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for LPG is 4000 - 4500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.77% and a 3 - year historical percentage of 9.53% [1]. LPG Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - When inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, for a long - position in the spot market, it is recommended to short the PG2512 futures at 25% hedging ratio with an entry range of 4400 - 4500 to lock in profits and cover production costs, and sell the PG2512C4400 call option at 25% hedging ratio with an entry range of 60 - 70 to collect premiums and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises [1]. Procurement Management - When the procurement of regular inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for a short - position in the spot market, it is recommended to buy the PG2512 futures at 25% hedging ratio around 4000 to lock in procurement costs, and sell the PG2512P4000 put option at 25% hedging ratio with an entry range of 50 - 70 to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the PG price drops [1]. Industry Data Summary - The data shows the prices, spreads, month - spreads, ratios, and profits of various LPG - related products on different dates from November 4 to November 11, 2025, including Brent, WTI, MOPJ, FEI, CP, etc., along with their daily and weekly changes [6].

Core View - The short - term geopolitical risks and inventory decline support a rebound, but the weak chemical demand and the global pattern of strong supply and weak demand remain unchanged. LPG is expected to remain weak in the medium - to - long term [3] - Port inventory decreased month - on - month, and the supply pressure was relieved in the short term [2] - Crude oil rebounded due to geopolitical risks, and the expected increase in Saudi CP drove up the cost of LPG [2] - The operating rate of PDH plants remained at a multi - year low, the polypropylene price fell below the 2023 low, and the profit loss of alkylation plants widened [2] - The propane inventory in the United States is at a historical high, the export volume from the Middle East has increased significantly, and the unexpected decline in Saudi CP reflects the abundant supply [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The core contradictions affecting the LPG price trend include cost - end crude oil fluctuations due to supply surplus and geopolitical issues, an unexpected decline in the CP October contract price, the recurrence of Sino - US contradictions, and a loose domestic market with stable supply - demand and weak combustion demand [2] - Bullish factors include a small rebound in the crude oil market, the expansion of PDH profits supporting demand, and the widening FN spread attracting cracking demand [3] - Bearish factors are the persistent supply surplus of crude oil in the fourth quarter and the weak performance of both the outer - market propane and domestic spot [2] Summary by Related Catalogs LPG Price and Volatility - The monthly price range prediction for LPG is 3800 - 4200, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 21.39% and a 3 - year historical percentage of 37.37% [1] LPG Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For high inventory and fear of price drops, sell PG2511 futures at a 25% hedging ratio in the 4400 - 4500 range to lock in profits and sell PG2511C4400 call options at a 25% ratio in the 60 - 70 range to reduce costs [1] Procurement Management - For low procurement inventory, buy PG2511 futures at a 25% hedging ratio in the 3800 - 4000 range to lock in procurement costs and sell PG2511P3800 put options at a 25% ratio in the 50 - 70 range to reduce costs [1] Industry Data Price - Brent crude was at $63.39 on October 13, 2025, up $1.3 from the previous day and down $2.76 from the week - ago level. WTI was at $59.14, up $1.3 and down $2.88 respectively [5] - LPG's main contract closed at 4082 yuan/ton on October 13, 2025, up 12 yuan from the previous day and down 155 yuan from the week - ago level [5] Spread - FEI - MOPJ M1 was - 86.30 on October 13, 2025, down 19.43 from the previous day and 14.67 from the week - ago level [5] - LPG - FEI was 49.85, up 150.25 from the previous day and 198.37 from the week - ago level [5] Monthly Spread - LPG11 - 12 was 107 on October 13, 2025, up 29 from the previous day and the week - ago level [5] - FEI M1 - M2 was - 13.63, down 0.38 from the previous day and up 0.63 from the week - ago level [5] Ratio - MB/WTI was 0.44 on October 13, 2025, down 0.03 from the previous day and up 0.01 from the week - ago level [5] - FEI/Brent was 0.60, down 0.03 from the previous day and 0.02 from the week - ago level [5] Disk Profit - The disk import profit - FEI was - 400.55 on October 13, 2025, up 14.53 from the previous day and down 152.04 from the week - ago level [5] - The PDH disk profit - PG was 278.7, down 42.8 from the previous day and up 19.25 from the week - ago level [5] Spot Profit - The Asian naphtha cracking profit was - 32.4996 on October 13, 2025, up 7.99 from the previous day and 17.54 from the week - ago level [5] - The Asian propane cracking profit was 47.0266, up 30.56 from the previous day and 53.52 from the week - ago level [5] Freight - The freight from the Middle East to the Far East was 62.667 on October 13, 2025, down 1 from the previous day and 7.5 from the week - ago level [5] - The freight from the US to Europe was 67.5, down 1.5 from the previous day and 11.625 from the week - ago level [5]