LPG产业风险管理日报 2025/08/19 戴一帆（投资咨询证书：Z0015428） LPG日报 沈玮玮（F03140197） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 LPG价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分比（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LPG | 3750-4400 | 15.47% | 5.99% | source： 同花顺,南华研究 LPG套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 库存过高，担心价 格下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根 据企业的库存情况，做空PG期货 | PG2510 | 卖出 | 50% | 4400-4500 | | | | | 来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成 | | | | | | | | | 本 | | | | | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the non - ferrous and precious metals sector, copper, aluminum, lead, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy are bullish; tin, alumina, and gold are bearish; and zinc, nickel, etc. are range - bound. In the black and shipping sector, the black series is in a full - scale shock, while European line container shipping is independently bullish. In the energy and chemical sector, LPG and 20 - gauge rubber are strongly bullish, some are bullish, and others are mainly in shock. In the agricultural products sector, palm oil, sugar, and jujubes are bullish, soybean meal is mainly in shock, and the corn series is bearish [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Copper, aluminum, lead, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy show bullish signals; tin, alumina, and gold show bearish signals; and the rest are mainly in shock [10][11]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: Bullish varieties are above the pivot point, and short - term long positions can be arranged if the support is not broken. Bearish varieties are under pressure at the pivot point, and short - term short positions can be considered when rebounding to the resistance with volume. Volatile varieties need to be vigilant against breakthrough risks [15][18]. 3.2 Black and Shipping Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: The black sector is mainly in shock, and the shipping sector shows bullish signals [22][23]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: The black series is in a full - scale shock, and European line container shipping is independently bullish. Coal and coke varieties need to be vigilant against wide - range fluctuations, and the shock pattern may be broken if the boundary is broken [30]. 3.3 Energy and Chemical Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: 20 - gauge rubber, synthetic rubber, and caustic soda show bullish signals, and the rest are mainly in shock [34][35]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: LPG and 20 - gauge rubber are strongly bullish. Bullish varieties are dominant above the pivot point, and the chemical sector is in shock. Soda ash is in wide - range shock and can be operated in the short - term range [42]. 3.4 Agricultural Products Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Palm oil, sugar, and jujubes show bullish signals, soybean meal is mainly in shock, and corn and corn starch show bearish signals [46][47][49]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: Palm oil, sugar, and jujubes are bullish. The bean and oil varieties are generally in shock, and the corn series is mainly bearish [55].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆★ (Indicates a bias towards a long position, with a driving force for price increase, but limited operability on the trading floor) [5] - Fuel oil & Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆ (The short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current trading floor has poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [5] - Asphalt: ★★★ (Indicates a clearer long - position trend, and there is still a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [5] - LPG: ☆☆☆ (The short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current trading floor has poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall energy market is affected by multiple factors such as supply, demand, and geopolitical situations. Different energy products show different trends and investment opportunities [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude oil - Last week, the crude oil market rose first and then fell. Brent 10 contract still closed up 2.84%, and SC09 contract rose 2.92%. US July non - farm payrolls data was lower than expected, and data for May and June were significantly revised down. OPEC + 8 voluntary production - cut countries decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September. This week, after the oil price correction, it is temporarily regarded as oscillating strongly. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the extension of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs before the August 12 deadline [2] Fuel oil & Low - sulfur fuel oil - Crude oil led the decline in oil - related futures. The fuel oil series trended lower, and the low - sulfur fuel oil crack spread continued to decline. The arrival volume in the Singapore market increased significantly in July, and the bunker fuel demand in Fujeirah has been weakening month - on - month since June. The crack spreads of FU and LU are expected to continue the weak trend [2] Asphalt - In July, the inflow of Venezuelan crude oil into China increased by 3.8% month - on - month. The August production plan decreased compared with July, but some Sinopec refineries' actual production exceeded the plan for two consecutive months. Demand recovery in South China was delayed, and northern demand was also weak. The overall commercial inventory increased slightly month - on - month but remained at a relatively low level in recent years. The BU trend mainly follows the direction of crude oil, but the fluctuation range is limited [3] LPG - The Middle East CP was significantly lowered, but the spot discount shrank. The chemical profit margin stabilized due to the decline in the finished product end. The PDH operating rate is still rising, and domestic demand has bottom - level support. The supply side is relatively loose, and refinery gas may continue to follow the decline in import costs. The downside space of the spot is relatively limited after the rapid decline [4]

Report Date - The report is dated July 30, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Views - Based on fundamental analysis, there are trend short, oscillatory, oscillatory long, and trend long views for different futures varieties such as zinc, crude oil, and fuel oil [4] - Based on quantitative indicators, there are bearish, oscillatory, and bullish views for different futures varieties such as corn, palm oil, and Shanghai copper [5] - A series of macro - economic events and policies are expected to impact the market, including Sino - US economic and trade talks, IMF's economic outlook adjustments, and US political statements [8][9] Summary by Categories Macro - Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: Focus on the support of the 5 - day moving average. If not broken, the trend continues. A - shares rose on Tuesday, and the market style rotates. Pay attention to the movement of stop - profit funds [11] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Short - term prices are suppressed by the 5 - day moving average. Consider shorting on rallies or reducing duration using treasury bond futures. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting's stance on inflation [12] Black (Steel and Minerals) - **Steel and Minerals**: Central anti - involution policies increase the expectation of boosting inflation through the supply side. Currently in the seasonal off - season, the market shows off - season strength. Demand may weaken seasonally, but the spot - futures arbitrage is active. Supply is expected to remain strong, and steel prices are expected to rebound in the short - term but with limited space, and oscillate in the medium - term [13][14] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Prices may enter a high - level oscillatory stage. Coal mine production is strictly checked, and steel mills' profits are good. However, there is a possibility of a decline in steel mills' molten iron production, and imported Mongolian coal may put pressure on prices [16] - **Ferroalloys**: The supply - demand of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese may weaken marginally. Short - term operation requires intraday trading skills, and it is not recommended to chase highs or lows [17] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: For soda ash, short on rallies and stop loss flexibly if the positive feedback returns. For glass, close long positions at low levels and then wait and see. The supply - demand pattern of soda ash has not improved significantly, and glass needs to digest speculative inventory [18][19] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate weakly at high levels due to weak downstream demand in the off - season. Alumina prices are in a high - volatility stage, and short - term policy influence is expected to be short - lived. Supply - demand is expected to be loose [21] - **Shanghai Zinc**: Social inventories are increasing, and the supply is expected to increase while downstream demand is weak. Zinc prices will oscillate downward [22] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply - side disruptions have limited impact, and the market is expected to oscillate without further news of production cuts [23] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply of leading manufacturers is uncertain, and the supply - demand situation has marginally improved. The market is expected to oscillate, and the core issue is the resumption of production of leading manufacturers [24] - **Polysilicon**: The market is trading based on policy expectations, and the supply - demand situation is weak. The upside space of the futures price depends on actual policies and warehouse receipt generation [25][26] Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Prices are oscillating under pressure. Long - term short positions on rallies are recommended. Global and US cotton production and ending stocks are expected to increase, and overall demand is weaker than last year [28][29] - **Sugar**: Domestic sugar prices are under pressure due to the expected increase in processed sugar imports. The market is expected to oscillate under pressure, and the international sugar market is expected to have a surplus [31][32] - **Eggs**: Entering the seasonal rising stage, but the supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival may limit the increase. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the short 09 and long 01 spread [35] - **Apples**: Light - position positive spreads are recommended. Pay attention to the listing price and consumption of early - maturing apples [36] - **Corn**: Prices are expected to oscillate in a range. Policy support strengthens the price floor, but wheat substitution and imported corn may suppress prices [36][37] - **Red Dates**: It is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to the fruit - setting situation in the production area and weather changes [38][39] - **Pigs**: Short - term supply exceeds demand. It is recommended to short near - month contracts and pay attention to the 11 - 1/3 - 5 spread [40] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market may shift to a supply - surplus pattern. In the short - term, prices may rebound due to concerns about sanctions on Russia. Long - term factors include Sino - US trade negotiations and the realization of peak - season demand [42] - **Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil prices will follow crude oil prices. The market is affected by the peak power - generation demand in the Middle East, weak shipping, and crude oil's diversion of fuel oil demand [43] - **Plastics**: The supply - demand situation is weak. The market may oscillate weakly after a short - term emotional rebound. It is recommended to be cautious about callbacks [44] - **Rubber**: Short - term prices are affected by macro - policies and market sentiment. It is recommended to observe the supply of raw materials and market sentiment [45] - **Methanol**: Prices are expected to oscillate weakly, following the overall commodity market. The supply - demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating [46] - **Caustic Soda**: The fundamentals are relatively healthy. If there are warehouse receipts, the spot and futures market may be strong in the short - term [47] - **Asphalt**: It follows crude oil prices. The fundamentals are in the off - season, and production is expected to decrease in August, leading to inventory reduction [48][49] - **Polyester Industry Chain**: Prices are affected by macro - policies and market sentiment. Wait for short - selling opportunities. PX supply - demand is stable, PTA supply contracts slightly, and ethylene glycol imports are expected to increase [50] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Supply is abundant, and demand is expected to decline in the medium - to long - term. Prices are likely to fall [51] - **Paper Pulp**: The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly with limited amplitude. Observe port inventory reduction and spot trading improvement [52] - **Logs**: The spot price is raised, and the futures price follows. Be cautious about chasing highs and pay attention to the basis [52] - **Urea**: Maintain a bullish view as the improvement in low - price spot trading affects the futures market [53]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, historical quantiles, and spot references of various commodities on July 29, 2025, covering multiple sectors such as ferrous metals, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. 3. Summary by Commodity Sectors Ferrous Metals - Iron ore (12509): Spot price is 813, futures price is 786, basis is 27, basis rate is 3.39%, historical quantile is not provided, and the reference is the converted price of 62.5% Brazilian mixed powder (BRBF) at Rizhao Port [1]. - Coke (J2509): Data incomplete. - Coking coal (JM2509): Spot price is 1260, futures price is 1101, basis is 160, basis rate is 14.49%, historical quantile is 69.30%, and the reference is the converted price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) at Shaheyi [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper (CU2509): Spot price is 79075, futures price is 79000, basis is 75, basis rate is 0.09%, historical quantile is 50.20%, and the reference is the SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price [1]. - Aluminum (AL2509): Spot price is 20660, futures price is 20615, basis is 45, basis rate is 0.22%, historical quantile is 61.87%, and the reference is the SMM A00 aluminum average price [1]. - Zinc (ZN2509): Data incomplete. - Tin (SN2509): Spot price is 268800, futures price is 267880, basis is 920, basis rate is 0.34%, historical quantile is 71.66%, and the reference is the SMM 1 tin average price [1]. - Lithium carbonate (LC2509): Spot price is 73900, futures price is 73120, basis is 780, basis rate is 1.07%, historical quantile is 62.77%, and the reference is the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price [1]. - Industrial silicon (SI2509): Spot price is 9950, futures price is 8915, basis is 1035, basis rate is 11.61%, historical quantile is not provided, and the reference is the SMM flux 215530 average price [1]. Precious Metals - Gold (AU2510): Spot price is 771.6, futures price is 774.8, basis is - 3.2, basis rate is - 0.41%, historical quantile is 18.60%, and the reference is the Shanghai Gold Exchange gold spot AU (T + D) [1]. - Silver (AG2510): Spot price is 9186.0, futures price is 9212.0, basis is - 26.0, basis rate is - 0.28%, historical quantile is 32.70%, and the reference is the Shanghai Gold Exchange silver spot AG (T + D) [1]. Agricultural Products - Rapeseed meal (RM509): Spot price is 2540, futures price is 2660.0, basis is - 120.0, historical quantile is 15.90%, and the reference is the ex - factory price of ordinary rapeseed meal in Zhanjiang, Guangdong [1]. - Rapeseed oil (OI509): Spot price is 9490, futures price is 9406.0, basis is 84.0, basis rate is 0.89%, historical quantile is 36.50%, and the reference is the ex - factory price of grade - four rapeseed oil in Nantong, Jiangsu [1]. - Corn (C2509): Spot price is 2350, futures price is 2319.0, basis is 31.0, basis rate is 1.34%, historical quantile is 63.30%, and the reference is the f.o.b. price of corn at Xizhou Port [1]. - Corn starch (CS2509): Partially incomplete data, with the price in Changchun, Jilin being 2740 for spot and 2683.0 for futures, basis is 57.0, basis rate is 2.12%, historical quantile is 26.00% [1]. - Live pigs (LH2509): Spot price is 14080, futures price is 14125.0, basis is - 45.0, basis rate is - 0.32%, historical quantile is 41.30%, and the reference is the ex - factory price of live pigs (outside ternary) in Henan [1]. - Eggs (JD2509): Spot price is 3040, futures price is 3576.0, basis is - 536.0, basis rate is - 14.99%, historical quantile is 5.90%, and the reference is the average price of eggs in Shijiazhuang, Hebei [1]. - PTA (TA509): Spot price is 4800.0, futures price is 4812.0, basis is - 12.0, basis rate is - 0.29%, historical quantile is 47.10%, and the reference is the market price (mid - price) of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in East China [1]. - Ethylene glycol (EG2509): Spot price is 4500.0, futures price is 4436.0, basis is 64.0, basis rate is 1.44%, historical quantile is 83.00%, and the reference is the market price (mid - price) of ethylene glycol (MEG) in East China [1]. - Polyester staple fiber (PF509): Spot price is 6610.0, futures price is 6482.0, basis is 128.0, basis rate is 1.97%, historical quantile is 73.60%, and the reference is the market price (dominant price) of polyester staple fiber (1.4D*38mm (direct - spun)) in the East China market [1]. - Styrene (EB2509): Spot price is 7370.0, futures price is 7358.0, basis is 12.0, basis rate is 0.16%, historical quantile is 28.90%, and the reference is the market price (spot benchmark price) of styrene in East China, China [1]. - LLDPE (L2509): Spot price is 7340.0, futures price is 7335.0, basis is 5.0, basis rate is 0.07%, historical quantile is 21.10%, and the reference is the duty - paid self - pick - up price (mid - price) of linear low - density polyethylene LLDPE (film - grade) in Shandong [1]. - PP (PP2509): Spot price is 7165.0, futures price is 7130.0, basis is 35.0, basis rate is 0.49%, historical quantile is 31.40%, and the reference is the duty - paid self - pick - up price (mid - price) of polypropylene PP (drawn - grade, melt index 2 - 4) in Zhejiang [1]. - Caustic soda (SH509): Spot price is 2593.8, futures price is 2593.0, basis is 0.8, basis rate is 0.03%, historical quantile is 48.00%, and the reference is the market price (dominant price) of caustic soda (32% ion - membrane caustic soda) in the Shandong market, converted to 100% [1]. - LPG (PG2509): Spot price is 4448.0, futures price is 3992.0, basis is 456.0, basis rate is 11.42%, historical quantile is 62.90%, and the reference is the market price of liquefied petroleum gas in the Guangzhou area [1]. - Asphalt (BU2509): Spot price is 3775.0, futures price is 3569.0, basis is 206.0, basis rate is 5.77%, historical quantile is 82.70%, and the reference is the market price (dominant price) of asphalt (heavy - traffic asphalt) in the Shandong area [1]. - Glass (FG509): Spot price is 1200.0, futures price is 1223.0, basis is - 23.0, basis rate is - 1.98%, historical quantile is 57.77%, and the reference is the market price of 5mm large - plate glass in Shahe, from Shahe Great Wall Glass (daily) [1]. - Soda ash (SA509): Spot price is 1320.0, futures price is 1316.0, basis is 4.0, basis rate is 0.30%, historical quantile is 33.61%, and the reference is the market price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe (daily) [1]. - Cotton (CF509): Spot price is 15473, futures price is 14075.0, basis is 1398.0, basis rate is 9.93%, and the reference is the factory - arrival price of cotton 3128B in Xinjiang [1]. - Apples (AP510): Spot price is 8600, futures price is 8052.0, basis is 548.0, basis rate is 6.81%, historical quantile is 43.40%, and the reference is the theoretical delivery price of apples (daily/Steel Union) [1]. - Red dates (CJ601): Spot price is 8300, futures price is 10695.0, basis is - 2395.0, basis rate is - 22.39%, historical quantile is 6.50%, and the reference is the wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei (Steel Union) [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Urea (UR509): Spot price is 1780.0, futures price is 1738.0, basis is 42.0, basis rate is 2.42%, historical quantile is 24.00%, and the reference is the market price (dominant price) of urea (small - particle) in the Shandong area [1]. - Methanol (MA509): Spot price is 2392.5, futures price is 2404.0, basis is - 11.5, basis rate is - 0.48%, historical quantile is 27.30%, and the reference is the market price (spot benchmark price) of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu, China [1]. - PVC (V2509): Spot price is 5100.0, futures price is 5149.0, basis is - 49.0, basis rate is - 0.99%, historical quantile is 67.80%, and the reference is the market price (dominant price) of polyvinyl chloride (SG - 5) in the Changzhou market, China [1]. - Natural rubber (RU2509): Spot price is 15100.0, futures price is 15065.0, basis is 35.0, basis rate is 0.23%, historical quantile is 96.87%, and the reference is the Shanghai market price of natural rubber (Yunnan state - owned full - latex) [1]. Others - Alumina (AO2509): Spot price is 3244, futures price is 3243, basis rate is 0.03%, historical quantile is 33.48%, and the reference is the SMM alumina index average price [1]. - Nickel (NI2509): Spot price is 122500, futures price is 121620, basis is 880, basis rate is 0.72%, historical quantile is 85.62%, and the reference is the SMM 1 imported nickel average price [1]. - Stainless steel (SS2509): Spot price is 13070, futures price is 12840, basis is 230, basis rate is 1.79%, historical quantile is 44.42%, and the reference is 304/2B:2*1240*C from Wuxi Hongwang (including trimming fee) [1]. - Silicon iron (SF509): Spot price is 5878, futures price is 5840, basis is 38, basis rate is 0.65%, historical quantile is 63.00%, and the reference is the converted price of 72 - silicon iron qualified blocks from Inner Mongolia to Tianjin warehouse receipts [1]. - Silicon manganese (SM509): Spot price is 5970, futures price is 6028, basis is - 58, basis rate is - 0.96%, historical quantile is 17.80%, and the reference is the converted price of 6517 silicon manganese from Inner Mongolia to Hubei warehouse receipts [1]. - Rebar (RB2510): Spot price is 3390, futures price is 3248, basis is 142, basis rate is 4.37%, and the reference is HRB400 20mm in Shanghai [1]. - Hot - rolled coil (HC2510): Spot price is 3440, futures price is 3397, basis is 43, basis rate is 1.27%, and the reference is Q235B: 4.75mm in Shanghai [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a detailed table of the basis rate statistics for various futures on July 22, 2025, including the basis rate, change from the previous day, monthly basis, and contract prices for different commodities across multiple sectors such as non - ferrous metals, precious metals, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. 3. Summary by Related Categories Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper (CU): Basis rate is 0.41%, down 0.04% from the previous day, with a current month basis of 325 and a spot price of 79,555 [4]. - Aluminum (AL): Basis rate is 0.70%, down 0.25% from the previous day, current month basis is 110, and spot price is 20,890 [4]. - Zinc (ZN): Basis rate is 0.15%, up 0.06% from the previous day, current month basis is 70, and spot price is 22,820 [4]. - Tin (SN): Basis rate is 0.61%, up 0.01% from the previous day, current month basis is 1630, and spot price is 267,200 [4]. - Nickel (NI): Basis rate is 0.95%, down 0.09% from the previous day, current month basis is 1160, and spot price is 122,850 [4]. - Industrial Silicon: Basis rate is 4.28%, down 1.73% from the previous day, current month basis is 415, and spot price is 9500 [4]. - Lithium Carbonate (LC): Basis rate is - 4.14%, down 0.04% from the previous day, current month basis is - 2880, and spot price is 68,020 [4]. Precious Metals - Gold (AU): Basis rate is - 0.60%, down 0.13% from the previous day, current month basis is - 2.32, and spot price is 777.00 [4]. - Silver (AG): Basis rate is - 0.49%, up 0.18% from the previous day, current month basis is - 16, and spot price is 9226 [4]. Energy Chemicals - Crude Oil (SC): Basis rate is - 5.41%, up 3.12% from the previous day, current month basis is - 27.7, and spot price is 484.6 [4]. - Fuel Oil (EU): Basis rate is 4.30%, down 0.72% from the previous day, current month basis is 126, and spot price is 3050 [4]. - Asphalt (BU): Basis rate is 5.41%, up 0.90% from the previous day, current month basis is 198, and spot price is 3855 [4]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil (LU): Basis rate is 2.30%, up 1.65% from the previous day, current month basis is 82, and spot price is 3685 [4]. - LPG (PG): Basis rate is 10.14%, down 0.84% from the previous day, current month basis is 464, and spot price is 4498 [4]. Agricultural Products - Soybean: Basis rate is - 5.69%, down 0.23% from the previous day, current month basis is - 239, and spot price is 3960 [4]. - Bean Meal (M): Basis rate is - 5.83%, down 0.40% from the previous day, current month basis is - 179, and spot price is 2890 [4]. - Rapeseed Meal (RM): Basis rate is - 3.19%, up 0.19% from the previous day, current month basis is - 87, and spot price is 2640 [4]. - Corn: Basis rate is 0.00%, down 0.26% from the previous day, current month basis is 0, and spot price is 2320 [4]. - Corn Starch (CS): Basis rate is 0.60%, down 0.23% from the previous day, current month basis is 16, and spot price is 2680 [4]. - Apple (AP): Basis rate is - 1.55%, down 0.50% from the previous day, current month basis is - 123, and spot price is 7800 [4]. - Eggs (JD): Basis rate is - 12.54%, down 1.00% from the previous day, current month basis is - 456, and spot price is 3180 [4]. - Live Pigs (LH): Basis rate is 0.24%, down 1.63% from the previous day, current month basis is not clear, and spot price is 14,400 [4]. - Cotton (CF): Basis rate is 9.90%, up 1.22% from the previous day, current month basis is 1404, and spot price is 15,589 [4]. - Sugar (SR): Basis rate is 4.81%, down 0.23% from the previous day, current month basis is 281, and spot price is 6120 [4]. Others - Rebar (RB): Basis rate is 3.29%, down 0.62% from the previous day, current month basis is 106, and spot price is 3330 [4]. - Hot - Rolled Coil (HC): Basis rate is 1.06%, down 0.45% from the previous day, current month basis is 36, and spot price is 3430 [4]. - Iron Ore: Basis rate is 4.64%, unchanged from the previous day, current month basis is 36.5, and spot price is 821.5 [4]. - Coke: Basis rate is - 7.93%, down 0.20% from the previous day, current month basis is - 127.1, and spot price is 1476 [4]. - Coking Coal (JIM): Basis rate is 9.34%, down 9.45% from the previous day, current month basis is 94.0, and spot price is 1100.0 [4]. - Silicon Iron (SF): Basis rate is - 6.32%, down 1.63% from the previous day, current month basis is - 358, and spot price is 5310 [4]. - Manganese Ore (SM): Basis rate is - 1.08%, down 1.87% from the previous day, current month basis is - 64, and spot price is 5850 [4]. - Stainless Steel: Basis rate is - 0.43%, down 0.62% from the previous day, current month basis is - 25, and spot price is 12,850 [4]. - Glass (FG): Basis rate is 0.60%, down 6.71% from the previous day, current month basis is 7, and spot price is 1180 [4]. - Methanol (MA): Basis rate is 0.89%, down 0.80% from the previous day, current month basis is 22, and spot price is 2433 [4]. - Ethanol (EG): Basis rate is 1.47%, up 0.13% from the previous day, current month basis is 65, and spot price is 4475 [4]. - PTA (TA): Basis rate is 0.21%, down 0.34% from the previous day, current month basis is 10, and spot price is 4790 [4]. - Polypropylene (PP): Basis rate is 3.23%, down 1.15% from the previous day, current month basis is 229, and spot price is 7320 [4]. - Styrene (EB): Basis rate is 0.91%, down 0.36% from the previous day, current month basis is 137, and spot price is 7560 [4]. - Short - Fiber (PF): Basis rate is 3.39%, down 0.97% from the previous day, current month basis is 218, and spot price is 6650 [4]. - Plastic: Basis rate is - 0.55%, down 1.02% from the previous day, current month basis is - 40, and spot price is 7250 [4]. - PVC (V): Basis rate is 5.61%, down 3.87% from the previous day, current month basis is 287, and spot price is 5405 [4]. - Rubber (RU): Basis rate is - 0.30%, down 0.23% from the previous day, current month basis is - 45, and spot price is 14,850 [4]. - 20 - Numbered Rubber (NR): Basis rate is 1.31%, down 0.36% from the previous day, current month basis is 167, and spot price is 12,917 [4]. - Soda Ash (SA): Basis rate is - 0.77%, up 0.05% from the previous day, current month basis is - 10, and spot price is 1285 [4]. - Urea (UR): Basis rate is 1.55%, down 2.18% from the previous day, current month basis is 28, and spot price is 1840 [4]. - Pulp (SP): Basis rate is 11.78%, down 0.89% from the previous day, current month basis is 629, and spot price is 5963 [4]. Stock Index Futures - CSI 300 (IF): Basis rate is 0.51%, up 0.10% from the previous day, current month basis is 11.0, and spot price is 4085.6 [4]. - SSE 50 (IH): Basis rate is 0.04%, up 0.13% from the previous day, current month basis is 1.2, and spot price is 2772.2 [4]. - CSI 500 (IC): Basis rate is 1.75%, up 0.10% from the previous day, current month basis is 54.7, and spot price is 6161.3 [4].

1. Report Investment Rating for the Industry No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Tariff disturbances and the resulting trade re - balancing were the main themes in the H1 2025 LPG market. In H2 2025, with the concentrated launch of new production capacities in the Middle East and the US, and the weak growth of domestic chemical demand, the supply - demand balance will turn to looseness [2][69]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 H1 LPG Market Review - **Analysis of Different Stages**: - In Q1 2025, the domestic civil gas market was in a seasonal peak. The lowest deliverable domestic LPG was Shandong civil gas with a spot price around 4,800 - 4,900 yuan/ton. The LPG market fluctuated widely with costs under the pressure of cancellation [9]. - The 04 - contract LPG showed strength. Against the backdrop of weakening global crude oil and FEI prices, the domestic LPG price was strong, and the basis once shrank to around 100 yuan/ton. The contract mainly traded on the squeeze - out of the futures market and the expected tariff counter - measures due to Trump's potential global taxation [9]. - After Trump's global equal - tariff policy and high - tariff measures against China, China imposed a 125% counter - tariff on US imports. The global crude oil and FEI prices tumbled. The domestic LPG market was initially strong but then followed the decline of civil gas prices, while the internal - external price spread rebounded rapidly and fluctuated until early May [9]. - After the Sino - US phased tariff suspension agreement on May 12, the FEI market reversed, and the domestic LPG price fell sharply under the weakening civil gas and large - scale warehouse receipts, with the basis widening [9]. 3.2 2025 H2 LPG Operating Logic 3.2.1 LPG Import Pattern Outlook - **Historical Growth**: In the past 5 years, with the rapid expansion of domestic PDH and other capacities, the chemical demand for LPG increased significantly, and the average annual growth rate of the total imports of propane and butane was 14.10% [11]. - **2025 H1 Import Situation**: From January to March, the cumulative imports of LPG were 8.514 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.44%. However, from April to May, under the impact of Trump's 125% tariff on China, the imports dropped to 5.0209 million tons, a 11.54% decrease from the Q1 average. Even after the tariff suspension in May, the procurement of US propane did not increase significantly due to policy uncertainty and supply - chain substitution [14]. - **Import Source Changes**: The share of US propane in China's imports dropped sharply. In May, it accounted for only 21.17% (310,000 tons). The shortfall was mainly filled by the Middle East (increasing to 55.12% in May 2025 from 23.96% in 2024) and non - traditional sources such as Canada, Australia, and North Africa [15]. 3.2.1.1 Tariff 1.0 - **2018 - 2020 Trade War Impact**: In 2018, after the US imposed a 25% tariff on Chinese goods, China counter - imposed tariffs on US LPG. The US LPG imports dropped by about 290,000 tons/month on average. China supplemented imports through increasing Middle East imports, seeking non - traditional sources, and exchanging goods with Japan and South Korea. However, there was still a shortfall of about 40,000 tons/month [19]. - **2025 Situation**: By 2024, US propane accounted for 59% of China's imports, over 17 million tons annually. If US imports were to stop, it would be difficult to reshape the trade logistics, and the arrival cost of LPG would likely increase. Chinese PDH enterprises might face production cuts or shutdowns [21]. 3.2.1.2 Middle East LPG Supply - **H1 2025 Supply**: Since 2023, the average annual growth rate of Middle East LPG exports has been between 2.5 - 3%. From January to May 2025, it increased by 2.88% year - on - year. The supply from Saudi Arabia and Qatar decreased, while the increments mainly came from Iran and Kuwait [23]. - **H2 2025 New Capacity**: From 2025 - 2026, the new LPG capacity in the Middle East is estimated to be between 14 - 16 million tons, mainly contributed by Qatar and Saudi Arabia. This expansion will add nearly 10% to the global LPG supply, intensify market competition, and may put downward pressure on international prices [27]. - **Change in Export Direction**: Due to the slowdown in Indian demand and the change in the North Asian import pattern, the Middle East's LPG exports will be more focused on China, Southeast Asia, and Europe [27]. 3.2.1.3 US LPG Supply - **Historical Growth**: In the past 5 years, the average annual growth rate of US propane exports was 10.69%. From January to May 2025, the exports increased by 6.51% year - on - year. Affected by the North American cold wave, exports in February decreased by 9.34% year - on - year and recovered to about 7% in March [33]. - **H2 2025 Outlook**: In H2 2025, US LPG production is expected to increase with expanding exports. The Permian Basin's associated LPG supply will remain high, and with the launch of the Enterprise14 fractionation project and terminal expansion, the export capacity is expected to increase from 2.2 million barrels per day in H1 to 2.4 million barrels per day [35]. - **Logistics Pattern Change**: After Trump's "global equal - tariff" policy, the total US propane exports were not significantly affected, but the logistics pattern changed. China's procurement of US propane decreased significantly, while Japan, South Korea, Southeast Asia, India, and Latin America increased their imports [37]. - **Export Capacity Constraints**: US LPG exports are highly concentrated in a few major terminals. Without considering terminal expansions, if the 1 - 5 month's 5% export growth rate is maintained, the average capacity utilization rate of the four major terminals in the Gulf of Mexico is expected to reach 91%. If calculated based on the average 10% growth rate in the past 5 years, it will rise to 98%, indicating a bottleneck in export capacity [42]. 3.2.2 Domestic LPG Supply Outlook - **H1 2025 Supply**: From January to May 2025, the domestic crude oil processing volume decreased by 4.12% year - on - year, dragging the LPG production into negative growth. The total LPG production was 22.3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.56% [47]. - **Refinery Operations**: In H1 2025, the overall refinery operations were sluggish. The main refineries had a peak - and - trough pattern during the spring maintenance from March to May, while Shandong independent refineries started the year with a sharp decline and then stagnated at a low level [50]. - **H2 2025 New Capacity**: In H2 2025, new refinery capacities of 27 million tons/year will be gradually released, which is expected to increase the crude oil processing capacity by 2.5 - 3% and theoretically drive the marginal increase of LPG production by 3,500 - 4,500 tons/day [54]. 3.2.3 Domestic LPG Demand Outlook 3.2.3.1 PDH - **Profit and Operation in H1 2025**: In Q1 2025, the average profit of domestic PDH plants was 290 yuan/ton, a 71% year - on - year increase, mainly due to the falling import propane price and relatively stable propylene price. The average operating rate was 71.73%, a 1.59% increase from the previous quarter and an 8.47% increase year - on - year [58]. - **Impact of Tariffs**: After the Sino - US tariff increase in April, the import cost of US propane soared, and the theoretical profit of PDH plants once fell below - 5,500 yuan/ton. Enterprises turned to the Middle East for procurement, making profit recovery difficult. The operating rate dropped from 70% in March to 60% in mid - May and then rebounded to 70% after the tariff suspension in May but fell again later. As of June 12, the theoretical profit was - 357 yuan/ton [59]. - **Capacity Expansion**: In H1 2025, 2.46 million tons/year of new PDH capacities were put into operation, and another 1.45 million tons/year are expected to be launched in H2. The total new capacity in 2025 will reach 3.91 million tons, increasing the propane demand by about 2 million tons. With the concentrated release of propylene capacity in H2 and weak downstream demand, the PDH operating rate may decline [62]. 3.2.3.2 C4 Demand - **MTBE**: In H1 2025, MTBE first rose and then declined. In Q1, it was supported by costs and policies, but in Q2, the market turned sluggish due to increased supply and weak gasoline - blending demand. In H2, the situation may improve slightly during the summer peak season. The expected new production capacity in 2025 is 2.742 million tons/year, with a growth rate of 12% [64][67]. - **Maleic Anhydride**: In H1 2025, maleic anhydride showed a one - way downward trend due to over - capacity. The expected new production capacity in 2025 will exceed 1.5 million tons/year, with a growth rate of over 40% [67].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 高位震荡 | 伊以冲突不确定性较高，油价高位震荡。当前核心驱动由供需转为地缘政 | | | | 治，伊以冲突走向主导油价，短期市场较为担忧战火扩大，极端情况下， | | | | 伊朗可能封锁霍尔木兹海峡。策略：双买期权策略。SC【555-585】 | | LPG | 偏强 | 地缘冲突不确定性上升，油价震荡偏强，液化气短线偏强。成本端油价受 | | | | 地缘冲击，短线走强，并且伊朗 LPG 出口占国内进口比例约三分之一；下 | | | | 游化工需求继续回升，PDH、烷基化、MTBE 开工率上升；库存端利好， | | | | 港口库存连续下降。策略：上行风险较大，波动加剧，双买期权。PG | | | | 【4500-4650】 | | L | 空头反弹 | 装置维持高检修，现货涨势放缓，华北基差为-62（环比-14）。2024 年自 | | | | 伊朗进口 LL、HD、LD 占比分别为 2%、9%、13%，后续进口存缩量预期。 | | | | 下周检修力度增加，预计产量继续下降。近期市场情绪好转，下 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 高位震荡 | 伊以冲突不确定性较高，油价高位震荡。当前核心驱动由供需转为地缘政 | | | | 治，伊以冲突走向主导油价，短期市场较为担忧战火扩大，极端情况下， | | | | 伊朗可能封锁霍尔木兹海峡。策略：双买期权策略。SC【545-575】 | | LPG | | 近期市场不确定性上升，波动加剧，油价震荡偏强，液化气短线偏强。成 | | | 偏强 | 本端油价受地缘冲击，短线走强；下游化工需求有所回升，PDH、MTBE | | | | 开工率上升；库存端利好，厂库和港口库存均下降。策略：波动加剧，双 | | | | 买期权。PG【4450-4550】 | | | | 社会库存去化，期现齐涨，华北基差为-7（环比+41）。2024 年 PE 自中东 进口 LL、HD、LD 占比分别为 2%、9%、13%，后续相关进口存缩量预期。 | | L | 空头反弹 | | | | | 本周检修力度超预期，预计产量下降。近期市场情绪好转，下游阶段性逢 | | | | 低补库，关注后续库存去化力度。策略：检修叠加成 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading operability on the market [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited trading operability on the market [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but limited trading operability on the market [1] - Asphalt: ★☆★, with a relatively more bullish indication [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term equilibrium state with poor market operability [1] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks from the Israel - Iran conflict have caused a sharp rise in crude oil futures, and there is still room for trading geopolitical risks.虚值原油看涨期权 have hedging value, and short positions in futures can be considered after the geopolitical situation becomes clear [2] - In the context of the continuous fermentation of geopolitical conflicts, the prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil follow the upward trend of oil prices, but their fundamentals face challenges such as weak demand and increased supply [2] - The price of asphalt follows the rise of crude oil but lags behind, and its cracking spread has dropped significantly. There are still fundamental support factors, and investment opportunities can be considered after the geopolitical risk premium of crude oil is removed [3] - The price of LPG has a limited follow - up increase due to its high price - to - value ratio and loose fundamentals. It may fall back if there is no substantial impact on Middle - East exports, and the market will fluctuate widely [4] Summary by Related Categories Crude Oil - Recently, crude oil futures have soared, with the Brent 08 contract rising 4.3% in the Asian session and the SC07 contract rising 6.9% intraday. The risk of a large - scale conflict in the Middle East has materialized. Referring to the extreme - case pricing when Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, the upward target of the Brent near - month contract is around $80/barrel [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Geopolitical conflicts have led to a continuous rise in oil prices, and the domestic fuel oil futures have followed suit, with the increase of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU) greater than that of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU). The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in ship bunkering and deep - processing is still relatively low, and the supply of both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to increase, while the demand is insufficient [2] Asphalt - The price of asphalt has followed the rise of crude oil but lags behind, and its cracking spread has fallen below the previous low. The subsequent increase in production by local refineries lacks momentum, and the increase in asphalt production by major refineries is expected to be limited. The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries has increased, and the terminal demand is expected to be boosted. The de - stocking trend is expected to continue [3] LPG - The price of LPG has a limited follow - up increase due to its high price - to - value ratio and loose fundamentals. If there is no substantial impact on Middle - East exports, it may fall back. The domestic chemical demand has increased, but the subsequent growth space is limited, and the inventory of terminals and refineries has increased. The market will fluctuate widely [4]