Report Date - The report is dated November 17, 2025 [1][5][9] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides daily views and strategies for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., analyzing the current trends and potential risks of each commodity [2][4] Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Interest rate cut expectations are rising, with a trend strength of 1 [2][5][7] - **Silver**: Reached a new high, with a trend strength of 1 [2][5][7] Base Metals - **Copper**: LME inventory reduction supports prices, with a trend strength of 0. The US included copper in the new critical minerals list, and Peru's copper production increased year - on - year [2][9][11] - **Zinc**: Rangeside trading, with a trend strength of 0. US economic data release schedule and Fed's stance on interest rate cuts are key factors [2][12][14] - **Lead**: Domestic inventory increase pressures prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][15][16] - **Tin**: Pulled back from high levels, with a trend strength of 1 [2][18][23] - **Aluminum**: Short - term pressure, with a trend strength of 0. Alumina still faces fundamental pressure, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][24][27] - **Nickel**: Nickel prices broke through support and are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0. Stainless steel is suppressed by weak reality, with a trend strength of 0. Indonesia's mining policies and China's subsidy suspension impact the market [2][28][33] Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: High - level oscillation, pay attention to the risk of weakening demand month - on - month, with a trend strength of 0 [2][34][36] - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, and there is still support at the bottom, with a trend strength of 1. Polysilicon: Pay attention to the meeting situation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][37][40] - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][42][44] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The decline in apparent demand data has narrowed, and they are in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][46][49] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese**: Cost provides bottom support, and they are in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][50][54] - **Coke**: Followed the correction, with a trend strength of 0. Coking Coal: Supply expectations are fluctuating, and valuation has declined, with a trend strength of 0 [2][55][57] - **Log**: Oscillating repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][58][61] Others - **LPG**: Downstream buying interest is strong, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term [4] - **Propylene**: Demand expectations have improved, and it is in a short - term strong - side oscillation [4] - **PVC**: Still under pressure in the trend [4] - **Fuel Oil**: Weak oscillation, and it is still weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term. Low - sulfur fuel oil: Slight rebound [4] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The 02 contract will fill the discount in the short term and be in an oscillating market in the medium term [4] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Upstream fluctuations have increased, and they are in a short - term strong - side oscillation [4] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillating at a low level [4] - **Pure Benzene**: Overseas gasoline blending has started, and it is mainly in a short - term oscillation [4] - **Palm Oil**: Short - term negatives have been fully priced in, pay attention to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas [4] - **Soybean Oil**: Lack of drivers from the US soybean side, oscillating [4] - **Soybean Meal**: The US agricultural report has no excessive positive factors, and it may follow the decline of US soybeans [4] - **Soybean No.1**: May adjust following the soybean market [4] - **Corn**: Oscillating [4] - **Sugar**: Range consolidation [4] - **Cotton**: The pressure of new cotton listing still suppresses futures prices [4] - **Egg**: Near - term contracts are weak, and far - term contracts are strong [4] - **Live Pig**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs has weakened, and the expectation of price increase due to cooling has failed [4] - **Peanut**: Pay attention to the spot market [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided on industry investment ratings. Core Views - The US government shutdown is likely to end, which may boost market sentiment. The US dollar index may face downward pressure, and the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to fluctuate within the range of 7.09 - 7.14 this week, showing a trend of "oscillating at the bottom with a slow downward shift" [3][4]. - Stock index futures are expected to maintain a short - term oscillating pattern, with the support from policies and the impact of the end of the US government shutdown on market sentiment [4]. - Treasury bonds are expected to continue to oscillate in the short term, and mid - term long positions can be held [5]. - In the commodity market, different varieties have different trends. For example, copper is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation; aluminum is in a high - level oscillation, while alumina is in a weak operation; zinc is in a strong - side oscillation; nickel and stainless steel have limited upward momentum; tin is expected to run strongly; lead is in a strong - side oscillation [6][7][9][10][11][17]. - In the black market, steel products are expected to oscillate within a certain range, iron ore is expected to oscillate in the short term, coking coal and coke are in an adjustment phase, and ferroalloys are expected to oscillate [19][20][21][23]. - In the energy and chemical market, crude oil is expected to oscillate within the range of 60 - 65 dollars per barrel in the medium and short term; LPG is affected by the decline of crude oil; PTA - PX is expected to oscillate strongly with the cost side; methanol 01 may continue to decline to find support; PP and PE are in a bottom - side and low - level oscillation respectively; pure benzene and styrene have limited upward momentum; glass, soda ash, and caustic soda are in a low - level game with a weak expectation [25][26][29][32][35][37][38]. - In the agricultural product market, pigs are waiting for the bottom - building; oilseeds are waiting for the USDA report; oils and fats are in a short - term oscillation; soybeans are in a high - level oscillation; corn and starch are in a bottom - side oscillation; cotton is running strongly in the short term; sugar is concerned about the 5500 level; eggs are generally bearish in the long term; apples are running strongly [47][49][50][52][53][54][56][58][59]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Domestic price index rebounds marginally, driven by low - base effect and anti - involution. Boosting domestic demand may be an important policy direction. Overseas, the focus is on liquidity tension, US government shutdown, and US dollar index rebound. The US government shutdown may end, and the labor market is cooling [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to fluctuate within 7.09 - 7.14 this week, showing a trend of "oscillating at the bottom with a slow downward shift", but the possibility of a sharp unilateral depreciation of the US dollar against the RMB in the short term is low [4]. Stock Index - The stock index oscillated yesterday, with the trading volume of the two markets shrinking. The long - position entry willingness increased, and the index is expected to maintain a short - term oscillating pattern [4]. Treasury Bonds - The bond market oscillated yesterday. The central bank will maintain a suitable monetary and financial environment, but the market is expected to oscillate before the central bank releases new signals. Mid - term long positions can be held [5]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot market procurement sentiment slightly improved, and the futures price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation within the range of 86000 - 87000 [6][7]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is affected by funds, and the short - term chasing of high prices needs to be cautious; alumina is recommended to be short - sold at high prices; cast aluminum alloy can be considered for a long - short strategy based on the price difference with aluminum [7][8][9]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price is in a high - level narrow - range oscillation. The smelting end may reduce production in November, and the inventory may decrease. It is expected to have an upward drive [9]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The demand is weak in the off - season, the cost support is loosening, and the upward momentum is limited [10]. - **Tin**: The supply is weaker than the demand, and it is expected to run strongly, with a support level around 276,000 yuan [11][12]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is in a long - short game, with a short - term view of oscillating strongly, but the risk of a callback needs to be vigilant [12][13]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: They are expected to have a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and policies [14][15]. - **Lead**: The lead price is pulled up by long - position funds, and it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [17]. Black Metals - **Steel Products**: Steel products are in a weak oscillation. The supply - demand balance of rebar has marginally improved, while the coil plate has high inventory and production. The cost of raw materials provides support, but the inventory suppresses the upward drive [19]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price may have a short - term repair space, but the overall supply is still abundant, and the port inventory is in an accumulating trend [19][20]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They are in an adjustment phase. The short - term price may face pressure, but the medium - and long - term price decline space is limited, and they are suitable for long - position allocation [21][22]. - **Ferroalloys**: They are affected by high inventory and weak demand, but are supported by the cost side, and are expected to oscillate [23][24]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil price dropped sharply overnight and is expected to oscillate within the range of 60 - 65 dollars per barrel in the medium and short term, with further downward space [25][26]. - **LPG**: It is affected by the decline of crude oil, and the domestic supply and demand situation has little change [26][27][28]. - **PTA - PX**: Affected by "anti - involution" rumors and demand, the price is expected to oscillate strongly with the cost side, but the excess expectation of PTA still exists [29][30][31]. - **Methanol**: Methanol 01 may continue to decline to find support, and it is recommended to hold the previous short - call options and carry out a 12 - 1 reverse spread [32][33]. - **PP**: It is in a bottom - side oscillation, with the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remaining unchanged, and the upward drive being limited [34][35]. - **PE**: It is in a low - level oscillation, with the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand being difficult to change in the short term [36][37]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The upward momentum of pure benzene and styrene is limited, and the market is biased towards a bearish sentiment [38]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: They are in a low - level game with a weak expectation. Soda ash has cost support but limited upward elasticity; glass has a cold - repair expectation; caustic soda has an increasing market pressure [38][39][41]. Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: They are waiting for the bottom - building. The long - term can be bullish strategically, but the short - term is still based on fundamentals [47][48]. - **Oilseeds**: Attention should be paid to the USDA report. The outer - market soybean price is expected to oscillate with a slightly upward shift, and the inner - market soybean meal and rapeseed meal have different trends [49][50]. - **Oils and Fats**: They are in a short - term oscillation, lacking a clear drive [50]. - **Soybeans**: They are in a high - level oscillation, with the price being in a stalemate and the purchase by the state reserve limiting the downward space [51][52]. - **Corn and Starch**: The price is driven by the reduction of supply, and they are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [52][53]. - **Cotton**: It is running strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the USDA report [53][54]. - **Sugar**: Attention should be paid to the 5500 level, affected by factors such as production and export [56][57]. - **Eggs**: They are generally bearish in the long term, with the production capacity facing a turning point [58]. - **Apples**: They are running strongly, with the inventory lower than last year and the market trading actively [58][59][60].

Financial Futures Core View - The US Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill, providing funds for the federal government until January 30, 2026, easing the government shutdown deadlock. If the US government resumes normal operations as expected and the core economic data is weak, the support for the US dollar may weaken, and the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to fluctuate between 7.09 - 7.14 this week [3]. - China's import and export data in October declined, but there's no need to worry excessively as it was affected by short - term factors. The export growth rate in the fourth quarter may decline, but the annual foreign trade is expected to end smoothly [3]. - The bond market is in a short - term shock situation, and it is recommended to hold medium - term long positions [4]. Market Conditions - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1207 at 16:30, down 32 basis points from the previous trading day, and closed at 7.1178 at night. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 7.0866, down 10 basis points from the previous trading day [2]. - On Tuesday, the bond futures opened higher,冲高 in the morning, then fell back, and maintained a narrow - range shock in the afternoon. The DR001 rose to 1.51% [4]. Commodities Precious Metals - Gold and silver are running at a high level in the short term. The COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $4133.2/ounce, up 0.27%; the SHFE gold 2512 contract closed at 948.88 yuan/gram, up 2.67%. The market is concerned about the release of US data [5]. - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is rising. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 4.3 tons to 1046.36 tons [6]. Base Metals - Copper: The US government shutdown is expected to end, and the market believes the probability of a December interest rate cut has increased, boosting copper prices. The Comex copper closed at $5.07/pound, up 0.08% [9]. - Aluminum: Funds are the core factor affecting aluminum prices recently. The supply of domestic electrolytic aluminum is stable, and the demand is weak. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and it is recommended to short at high prices [10][11]. - Zinc: Zinc prices are in a high - level narrow - range shock. The smelting end is short of ore, and the TC in November has dropped significantly. It is expected to be strong in the short term [12]. - Nickel and stainless steel: The demand is weak in the off - season, and the pressure on the fundamentals and the spot market is prominent. The price of nickel ore may be strong in the short term, and the price of nickel iron has been continuously adjusted [13][14]. - Tin: Bulls entered the market at night, and the Shanghai tin broke through upwards. The supply is weaker than the demand, and it is expected to maintain a high - level shock [15][16]. - Lead: The lead price is in a high - level narrow - range shock. The supply is tight, but the import window is open, and it is expected to gradually return to balance [18][20]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: The crude oil market is in a narrow - range shock. The short - term kinetic energy is weak, and the long - term is still under pressure [26][28]. - LPG: The cost has risen, and the domestic LPG market is in a strong pattern. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand of the PDH end has increased [28][29]. - PTA - PX: Affected by the "anti - involution" rumor, the PTA price has rebounded from a low level. The PX supply is expected to be high in the fourth quarter, and the PTA is in an oversupply situation [30][33]. - MEG - bottle chips: The ethylene glycol is under pressure. The supply has decreased, and the demand is stable. The long - term is still in a weak situation [33][34]. - PP: The PP market is in a bottom - level shock. The supply pressure is large, and the demand has improved slightly during the "Double 11" period [36][37]. - PE: The PE market is in a low - level shock. The supply pressure is large, and the demand growth space is limited [38][40]. - Pure benzene and styrene: The prices of pure benzene and styrene are still falling. The supply of pure benzene is expected to be high in the fourth quarter, and the demand is weak. The supply of styrene has increased, and the de - stocking pressure is large [41][42]. - Rubber and 20 - number rubber: The rubber price is in a pressure - bearing shock and moving up. The downstream demand has certain support, but the inventory pressure is large [43]. - Urea: The export quota has increased, and the short - term price is supported. The industry is expected to maintain a high daily output level in November [44][45]. - Glass, soda ash, and caustic soda: The soda ash is under pressure due to the weakening demand expectation. The glass is in a low - level game, and the caustic soda production is gradually recovering, with increasing market pressure [46][49]. - Pulp and offset paper: The pulp and offset paper futures prices are in a high - level shock. The supply of pulp is expected to decrease in the short term, and the cost of offset paper is expected to rise [49][50]. - Propylene: The propylene price is in a rebound. The supply is still loose, and the demand is affected by the PP market [50][52]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The policy may affect the long - term supply. The short - term is still based on the fundamentals, and the price is expected to be supported during the peak season [53]. - Oilseeds: The market is waiting for the USDA report. The import of soybeans is mainly from Brazil, and the supply of domestic soybean meal is high. The rapeseed meal is in a situation of weak supply and demand [53][54]. - Oils: The price of palm oil is expected to gradually recover. The supply of soybean oil is sufficient, and the supply of rapeseed oil is still a concern [55]. - Soybean No.1: The soybean No.1 is in a high - level consolidation [55]. - Corn and starch: The corn and starch prices are rising. The supply of corn is sufficient, but the selling pressure has been released, and the demand is increasing [55][57]. - Cotton: The cotton price is expected to maintain a shock. The new cotton output is high, and the downstream demand is average [57][58]. - Sugar: The sugar price is waiting for the Brazilian production data. The Brazilian sugar export in October increased, and the production in the second half of October is expected to increase [58][59]. - Eggs: The futures price of eggs is falling, and the market expectation is difficult to be falsified [60].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report On Thursday (November 6), most domestic commodities rose, with industrial products and agricultural products generally showing an upward trend. However, there were also some commodities with declines, such as shipping futures and non - metallic building materials [1]. 3) Summary by Related Categories Commodity Market Performance - **Overall Performance**: Most domestic commodity futures closed higher on Thursday. Black commodities led the gains, with coking coal rising 2.38%. Chemical products mostly increased, with butadiene rubber up 2.18%. Precious metals all rose, with silver futures gaining 1.99%. New energy materials mostly climbed, with lithium carbonate up 1.95%. Oilseeds and fats mostly advanced, with soybeans up 1.69%. Base metals mostly increased, with aluminum futures rising 1.31%. Agricultural and sideline products mostly rose, with eggs up 0.91%. Energy products were mixed, with LPG up 0.42%. Shipping futures led the declines, with the container shipping index (European line) down 3.91%. Non - metallic building materials all fell, with glass down 0.45% [1]. - **Index Performance**: The comprehensive Guomao Commodity Index rose 0.65% to 2151.74; the Guomao Industrial Products Index increased 0.58% to 1590.62; the Guomao Agricultural Products Index rose 0.45% to 1358.24; the black commodity index increased 0.45% to 1717.77; the Guomao Energy and Chemical Index rose 0.33% to 578.85; the Guomao Oilseeds and Fats Index increased 0.53% to 2135.25 [1]. Market Analysis of Different Commodity Categories - **Black Commodities**: The trading logic of the black chain has returned to the off - season fundamentals. Along with the rebound of the stock market and raw material prices, steel futures prices also rose slightly, but overall remained in a low - level oscillation pattern. The inventory of the five major steel products decreased to 1503.57 tons this week, with the decline narrowing to 0.67%, but a 23.37% increase compared to the same period last year. Production decreased by 2.12% month - on - month, and apparent demand also dropped by 2.89% to 869,100 tons, reaching the lowest level in the same period in recent years. In general, the short - term macro - expectations have less influence, and the market sentiment is weak due to weak real - estate data and the cooling weather [1]. - **Base Metals**: For copper, the rebound of Shanghai copper was due to the improved macro - sentiment released by the stock - market rebound, and its medium - term upward trend remained unchanged, with the strength of the market depending on the recovery of positions. Regarding lithium carbonate, although there were rumors of accelerated resumption of production in Jiangxi lithium mines, which have not been officially confirmed, the market did not form a consensus on the future. After the impact of the news faded, lithium carbonate stabilized and rebounded, recovering previous losses. Future attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of the supply side and whether the fundamentals continue to destock [1]. - **Energy and Chemical Products**: The main contract of SC crude oil declined slightly for the third consecutive day on Thursday. In the future, the short - term market's sensitivity to geopolitics has slightly decreased, the macro - situation is temporarily stable, and international oil prices are dominated by fundamentals. This week, ELA inventories entered the seasonal accumulation period, and WTI oil prices fell below the $60 support. Due to the remaining supply surplus this year and no substantial improvement in the near - term fundamentals, oil prices are expected to remain under pressure this year [1]. - **Oilseeds and Fats**: The relaxation of US soybean tariffs provided positive support to the market. However, according to the calculation, the import cost of US soybeans is still higher than that of Brazilian soybeans. The increase in US soybean import costs drove the continued strength of double - meal futures. Future attention should be paid to China's actual procurement of US soybeans. The three major oils rebounded and closed higher. The short - covering of palm oil and rapeseed oil drove the price rebound. The market expects that the production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil in the MPOB October supply - demand report may continue to increase. However, the improvement in palm oil export demand and the entry into the seasonal production - reduction season in November provide support for the price. In the short term, the driving force in the oil market is limited, and the market is waiting for the MPOB report and changes in the biodiesel policy [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - On Tuesday (November 4), most domestic commodities declined, with industrial products mostly falling and agricultural products mostly weakening [1]. - The macro - positive expectations for black commodities have ended, and steel prices may face a correction risk as they return to the off - season fundamentals [1]. - Base metals are under pressure from the rebound of the US dollar index, and copper may enter a short - term adjustment. The price of lithium carbonate is volatile and affected by enterprise news [1]. - For energy and chemical products, although international oil prices only slightly rose, there may be short - term rebound momentum due to OPEC+'s decision to pause production increase in the first quarter of next year [1]. - In the case of oilseeds and oils, the price trends vary among different varieties, with some affected by macro news, supply - demand, and cost factors [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Black Commodities - Macro利好预期结束，商品整体情绪降温，钢材需求持续性不明且幅度有限，螺纹热卷期货四连阴回吐上周涨幅 [1]. - 上周五大钢材品种库存环比降2.64%至1513.76万吨，但较去年同期增22.58%，产量环比增1.15%，表观需求环比增2.65%至916.4万吨创近半年高位 [1]. - 近期钢材供需结构转好，但宏观扰动结束，预计回归淡季基本面，价格有回调风险 [1]. Base Metals - 美联储官员表态分歧，缺乏关键数据指引，美元指数反弹压制金属市场 [1]. - 海外矿山中断，国内社库反弹，伦铜短期在1000美金上方压力大，随降息预期回落短期将调整 [1]. - 碳酸锂前期因需求上涨，近期复产预期提升，价格受消息影响波动大，需关注企业动态 [1]. Energy and Chemical Products - 欧美对俄石油制裁和地缘事件的风险溢价未能推动油价上行，国际油价仅微幅收涨，内盘原油系多数走弱 [1]. - 短期国际原油市场交易逻辑未变，利好是美国制裁政策和地缘局势不确定，利空是OPEC+增产立场及全球经济和需求欠佳 [1]. - OPEC+12月继续增产，但明年一季度暂停增产超市场预期，国际油价短期或有反弹动能 [1]. Oilseeds and Oils - 菜粕近月合约延续强势但上涨动能有限，部分远月合约回落；豆粕期货全线回落，观望美豆需求 [1]. - 棕榈油期货受马棕产量及库存增长预期打压维持弱势；豆油供强需弱但成本有支撑，维持震荡调整 [1]. - 菜油小幅收涨，短期国内菜油进入入库期，跟随油脂市场波动 [1]. Index Performance - The overall Guomao Commodity Index decreased by 0.91% from November 3rd to November 4th [1]. - The daily commodity index decreased by 1.03% [1]. - The Guomao Black Commodity Index decreased by 1.13% [1]. - The other commodity index increased by 0.27% [1].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the price changes of various commodities on October 29, 2025, compared to October 28, 2025, including chemicals, agricultural products, and more. It also covers macro - economic news and provides trading strategies for different commodities and financial products based on their fundamentals and market trends [4]. - Macroeconomic news shows positive developments in China - ASEAN cooperation, potential progress in Sino - EU trade talks, and China's stance on financial opening - up and economic policies. The performance of the A - share market and international stock markets is also analyzed [7][8][20][21]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Commodity Price Changes - **Chemicals**: On October 29, 2025, among chemicals, glass had the highest increase rate of 1.348% (from 1,113.00 to 1,128.00), while crude oil had the largest decline rate of - 0.994% (from 462.70 to 458.10) [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: Among agricultural products, soybean meal had the highest increase rate of 0.538% (from 2,975.00 to 2,991.00), and palm oil had the largest decline rate of - 1.496% (from 8,958.00 to 8,824.00) [4]. 3.2 Macroeconomic News - China and ASEAN signed the FTA 3.0 upgrade protocol, expanding cooperation in emerging fields [7]. - There will be a Sino - EU talk on rare earths, and China hopes for dialogue to solve trade differences [7]. - China is committed to financial opening - up, and the central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy [7]. - The revised Network Security Law will take effect on January 1, 2026, and the Environmental Protection Tax Law will include volatile organic compounds in the tax scope [8]. - The number of overseas travelers for tax - free shopping and the tax - free amount in China have increased significantly this year [8]. - The 8th China International Import Expo will be held from November 5th to 10th, with an expanded scale [8]. - China's soybean area and output are expected to remain high, and the number of breeding sows has decreased [8]. - China's wholesale and retail industries have shown growth in the first three quarters [8]. - The 2025 Hurun Rich List was announced, with Zhong Shanshan becoming the richest man in China [9]. 3.3 Commodity Trading Strategies - **Agricultural Products** - **Peanuts**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 7700 - 7900, and it is recommended to wait and see [13]. - **Sugar**: Consider selling call options at high prices, with a support level at 5450 yuan/ton [13]. - **Corn**: Observe the support in the 2100 - 2120 range [14]. - **Pigs**: The near - term futures are expected to be strong, and the long - term futures will remain weak [14]. - **Eggs**: Short - sell on the futures and conduct inter - month reverse arbitrage [16]. - **Cotton**: Wait and see, and consider going long if it breaks through 13600 yuan/ton [16]. - **Energy and Chemicals** - **Urea**: The UR2601 contract is expected to operate in the 1580 - 1670 yuan/ton range [16]. - **Caustic Soda**: The 2601 contract is under pressure [16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They are expected to remain strong, with coking coal facing pressure around 1300 and coke around 1800 [16]. - **Industrial Metals** - **Copper and Aluminum**: Prices are expected to remain high, but beware of macro - risks [17]. - **Alumina**: The 2601 contract is operating at a low level [17]. - **Steel Products**: Steel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, with rebar facing pressure around 3200 and hot - rolled coils around 3400 [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: They will maintain a wide - range fluctuating follow - up trend, and the industrial rebound hedging idea remains unchanged [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Adopt a bullish strategy, with a support level at 80000 and a pressure level at 84000 [19]. - **Options and Finance** - **Stock Index Futures**: Trend investors can focus on inter - variety spread arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors can consider buying straddles or wide straddles after the HO volatility decline [19]. - **Stock Index**: Although the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 4000 points, there is still a need for consolidation. Pay attention to the performance of the third - quarter reports of listed companies [20][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradictions affecting the LPG price trend include supply - demand imbalances, geopolitical issues, and cost - end fluctuations. Cost - end crude oil is under pressure from supply surplus and geopolitical disturbances, leading to increased volatility. The CP contract price in October dropped unexpectedly, and the external market remains weak. There are concerns about supply due to issues related to the US and Iran. The domestic fundamentals have little change, with increased civil gas supply suppressing spot prices, stable chemical demand, and weak combustion demand [2]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the LPG market. The expansion of PDH profits supports demand to some extent, and the widening of the FN spread may attract some cracking demand. However, there are also negative factors affecting the market [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LPG Price Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for LPG is 3800 - 4400. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 21.91%, and the historical percentage of the current volatility over 3 years is 34.05% [1]. LPG Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For companies with high inventory worried about price drops, they can short PG2511 futures with a 25% hedging ratio in the 4400 - 4500 range to lock in profits. They can also sell PG2511C4400 call options with a 25% ratio in the 60 - 70 range to collect premiums and reduce costs [1]. Procurement Management - For companies with low regular inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy PG2511 futures with a 25% hedging ratio in the 3800 - 4000 range to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell PG2511P3800 put options with a 25% ratio in the 50 - 70 range to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [1]. Industry Data - Various price data for LPG and related products are provided, including Brent, WTI, MOPJ, FEI, CP, etc., along with their daily and weekly changes. For example, on October 21, 2025, Brent was at 61.36, with a daily increase of 0.56 and a weekly decrease of 0.92 [3]. - Different spread data such as FEI - MOPJ M1, LPG - FEI, etc., are presented, showing their daily and weekly changes. For instance, the LPG - FEI spread was 180.88 on October 21, 2025, with a daily decrease of 2.63 and a weekly increase of 47.14 [6]. - Month - spread data for LPG and related products are given, like LPG11 - 12 and LPG12 - 1. The LPG11 - 12 month - spread was 146 on October 21, 2025, with a daily increase of 4 and a weekly decrease of 11 [6]. - Ratio data such as MB/WTI and FEI/Brent are provided, along with their daily and weekly changes. The MB/WTI ratio was 0.46 on October 21, 2025, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 0.01 [6]. - Both盘面 and spot profit data are presented, including PDH盘面 profits based on different benchmarks (PG, FEI, CP) and Asian naphtha and propane cracking profits. For example, the PDH盘面 profit - FEI was 366.36 on October 21, 2025, with a daily increase of 20.73 and a weekly increase of 88.12 [6]. - Freight data for different routes (Middle East to Far East, US to Europe, etc.) are provided, showing their daily and weekly changes. The Middle East to Far East freight was 59.333 on October 21, 2025, with a daily decrease of 0.5 and a weekly decrease of 3.167 [6]. Seasonal Data - Seasonal data for various factors are presented, including price, spread, month - spread, ratio, profit, and freight. For example, there are seasonal charts for FEI, CP, MB prices, LPG futures prices, and different spreads like FEI - MOPJ M1, PG - FEI, etc. [7][9][10]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Macro - China's Q3 GDP growth slowed, with a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. The GDP deflator showed a marginal rebound. The production side remained resilient in September, while the demand side declined. Fiscal measures are expected to support the economy, and the key to economic recovery lies in the repair of domestic demand [1][2]. - The US government shutdown has led to a data vacuum, and the market's concerns about the economy have eased, but risks remain. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, but the actual impact may be limited due to market pre - pricing [2]. RMB Exchange Rate - Despite the US government shutdown and delayed economic data, the US dollar index has not fallen significantly. The People's Bank of China aims to maintain the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level. The USD/RMB spot exchange rate is expected to remain stable within a reasonable range [3][4]. Stock Index - The stock market has been oscillating, and the trading volume has shrunk. The market is waiting for the outcome of Sino - US trade negotiations and policy signals from the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee [6][7]. Treasury Bonds - The bond market adjusted after a rebound last week. The slowdown in GDP growth, weak investment and consumption, and the downward trend in the real estate market support low - level interest rates. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee is expected to influence the bond market [7]. Container Shipping (European Routes) - The spot index has rebounded, but the supply - demand fundamentals have not improved fundamentally. The futures market is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [8][9][12]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price is facing a directional choice, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and interest rate cut expectations [14][16]. - Aluminum: The macro - environment is favorable, and the fundamentals are stable. The Shanghai aluminum price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [17]. - Alumina: It is in an oversupply situation, and a bearish view is maintained before large - scale production cuts [18]. - Zinc: The market is oscillating, and attention should be paid to the opening of the export window and macro - driving factors [19]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: They are following the market's oscillation. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and attention should be paid to Sino - US tariffs and interest rate cut expectations [20]. - Tin: It is expected to be bullish in the long term, with a stable wave - like upward trend in the medium and short term [21][22]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: The price of industrial silicon may rise slightly in the future, and the impact of polysilicon production cuts needs to be observed [22][23]. - Lead: The price is expected to oscillate with a certain downward possibility [24]. Black Metals - Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil): The demand has recovered slightly but is still lower than in previous years. The supply needs to be adjusted through production cuts. The price may rebound slightly but is likely to fall back later [26]. - Iron Ore: It is under pressure, with a "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern. The price is expected to be affected by policy signals [27][28]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal market has support at the bottom but is restricted by the downstream steel market. A volatile trading strategy is recommended [29][30]. - Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese: They have high inventories and weak downstream demand. The price is under pressure without significant stimulus policies [30][31]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Geopolitical factors have weakened, and macro - factors are negative. The price is expected to decline in the medium and long term [33][34]. - LPG: It is oscillating, with the domestic fundamentals changing little [36][37]. - PTA - PX: The macro - expectation is not optimistic, and the price is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the Fourth Plenary Session and Sino - US trade negotiations [38][40]. - MEG - Bottle Chip: The valuation is under pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to macro - factors [41][42]. - Methanol: The price range is expected to be 2250 - 2350, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [44]. - PP: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is under pressure. The macro - environment also has a negative impact [46][47]. - PE: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is affected by the macro - environment [48][50]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. A strategy of narrowing the price difference is recommended in the short term [51][52]. - Fuel Oil: The high - sulfur fuel oil crack spread is expected to decline, and the low - sulfur fuel oil crack spread is weak [54][55]. - Asphalt: The short - term performance is not outstanding. Attention should be paid to macro - meetings and new demand points [57][58]. - Urea: It is under pressure and oscillating. Attention should be paid to new export quotas and macro - sentiment [59]. - Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda: They are fluctuating at a low level. The supply of soda ash is expected to be high, glass has high inventory and weak demand, and caustic soda needs to wait for the market to bottom out [60][61][63]. - Pulp and Offset Paper: Pulp is oscillating, and offset paper is under pressure [63][64]. - Logs: There is a marginal positive impact on the far - month price, but there are uncertainties. A cautious long - position strategy is recommended for the far - month contract [65][66]. - Propylene: It continues to be weak, with a loose supply and cost pressure [67][68]. Agricultural Products - Live Pigs: The supply is still excessive, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended. Short - term attention should be paid to farmers' replenishment behavior, and long - term attention should be paid to capacity - reduction policies [70][71]. - Oilseeds: For soybeans, the supply may face a gap in the first quarter of next year. The demand for soybean meal will maintain a certain level. Rapeseed meal will see accelerated inventory reduction, and the trading opportunity needs to be determined by warehouse receipts [72]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - China's Q3 GDP grew 4.8% year - on - year, and the September economic data showed different trends in production and demand. The LPR remained unchanged, and there were developments in Sino - US trade and international political situations [1]. - The US government shutdown and the expected Fed interest rate cut are important factors affecting the market [2]. RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose slightly, and the central parity rate was adjusted down. Sino - US trade negotiations and economic data are the focus [3]. - The central bank's policy aims to maintain exchange rate stability, and the exchange rate is expected to be stable within a reasonable range [4]. Stock Index - The stock market opened higher and oscillated, with a decline in trading volume. Important economic data, Sino - US trade negotiations, and the Fourth Plenary Session are influencing factors [6]. - The market is waiting for policy signals, and the trading volume is shrinking, indicating a strong wait - and - see sentiment [7]. Treasury Bonds - The bond market adjusted after a rebound. The GDP growth slowdown and other economic data support low - level interest rates. The Fourth Plenary Session is expected to affect the bond market [7]. Container Shipping (European Routes) - The futures market rose, and the spot index rebounded significantly. However, the supply - demand fundamentals have not improved fundamentally [9]. - The market is affected by multiple factors, and the futures are expected to oscillate in the short term [10][12]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price of copper futures rose, and the inventory situation changed. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and interest rate cut expectations [14][15][16]. - Aluminum: The macro - environment is favorable, and the fundamentals are stable. The Shanghai aluminum price is expected to oscillate at a high level [17]. - Alumina: It is in an oversupply situation, and the price is under pressure [18]. - Zinc: The market is oscillating, and attention should be paid to the opening of the export window and macro - driving factors [19]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: They are following the market's oscillation, and the fundamentals have not changed significantly [20]. - Tin: It is expected to be bullish in the long term, with a stable wave - like upward trend in the medium and short term [21][22]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: The price of industrial silicon may rise slightly in the future, and the impact of polysilicon production cuts needs to be observed [22][23]. - Lead: The price is expected to oscillate with a certain downward possibility [24]. Black Metals - Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil): The demand has recovered slightly but is still lower than in previous years. The supply needs to be adjusted through production cuts. The price may rebound slightly but is likely to fall back later [26]. - Iron Ore: It is under pressure, with a "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern. The price is expected to be affected by policy signals [27][28]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal market has support at the bottom but is restricted by the downstream steel market. A volatile trading strategy is recommended [29][30]. - Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese: They have high inventories and weak downstream demand. The price is under pressure without significant stimulus policies [30][31]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Geopolitical factors have weakened, and macro - factors are negative. The price is expected to decline in the medium and long term [33][34]. - LPG: It is oscillating, with the domestic fundamentals changing little [36][37]. - PTA - PX: The macro - expectation is not optimistic, and the price is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the Fourth Plenary Session and Sino - US trade negotiations [38][40]. - MEG - Bottle Chip: The valuation is under pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to macro - factors [41][42]. - Methanol: The price range is expected to be 2250 - 2350, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [44]. - PP: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is under pressure. The macro - environment also has a negative impact [46][47]. - PE: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is affected by the macro - environment [48][50]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. A strategy of narrowing the price difference is recommended in the short term [51][52]. - Fuel Oil: The high - sulfur fuel oil crack spread is expected to decline, and the low - sulfur fuel oil crack spread is weak [54][55]. - Asphalt: The short - term performance is not outstanding. Attention should be paid to macro - meetings and new demand points [57][58]. - Urea: It is under pressure and oscillating. Attention should be paid to new export quotas and macro - sentiment [59]. - Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda: They are fluctuating at a low level. The supply of soda ash is expected to be high, glass has high inventory and weak demand, and caustic soda needs to wait for the market to bottom out [60][61][63]. - Pulp and Offset Paper: Pulp is oscillating, and offset paper is under pressure [63][64]. - Logs: There is a marginal positive impact on the far - month price, but there are uncertainties. A cautious long - position strategy is recommended for the far - month contract [65][66]. - Propylene: It continues to be weak, with a loose supply and cost pressure [67][68]. Agricultural Products - Live Pigs: The supply is still excessive, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended. Short - term attention should be paid to farmers' replenishment behavior, and long - term attention should be paid to capacity - reduction policies [70][71]. - Oilseeds: For soybeans, the supply may face a gap in the first quarter of next year. The demand for soybean meal will maintain a certain level. Rapeseed meal will see accelerated inventory reduction, and the trading opportunity needs to be determined by warehouse receipts [72].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - LPG is in a low - valuation operation period under a weak fundamental situation. Due to the盘面's downward pricing of import costs, the basis has widened passively, and the risk of chasing short positions is high. It is recommended to wait for a rebound and then short - allocate [6]. 3. Summary According to Related Contents Fundamental Situation - On October 9, 2025, after the holiday, the LPG futures opened significantly lower and continued to be under pressure during the session. The main contract fell by 5.61% at the morning close [6]. - On September 30, Saudi Aramco announced the October CP. Propane was at $49/ton, a decrease of $25/ton from the previous month, and butane was at $475/ton, a decrease of $15/ton from the previous month. During the holiday, the November CP swap contract continued to decline, with the propane contract dropping from $520/ton on September 30 to $476/ton on October 8 [6]. - The domestic refinery operating rate remains relatively high, and the external supply of LPG is relatively abundant. However, the domestic civil gas spot was relatively stable during the holiday, so domestic factors were not the main cause of the futures price decline [6]. - On the supply side, the production of domestic refineries and value - added enterprises is in a seasonal improvement period, and the overseas associated gas production cycle continues. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Azerbaijan are in the OPEC+ production - increasing countries, and the LPG shipments of these three countries are strongly correlated with crude oil shipments, providing room for the环比 increase in associated gas supply [6]. - On the demand side, the consumption of civil gas is shrinking year by year, there are no short - term bright spots in chemical demand, and the seasonal demand for blending oil is weakening, facing the pressure of a peak season without a boom [6]. - After the overseas market closed this round, the ratio of Far - East LPG to naphtha has returned to the annual high and is still at the optimal level in the same period in recent years, which is expected to drive chemical demand to some extent in the later stage, but the supply - side bearishness is difficult to reverse [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Domestic economic repair depends on the demand side, with potential incremental policies. Overseas, the US government shutdown increases market uncertainty, and the Fed's decision - making may be affected. The Japanese political situation also impacts the market [2]. - The RMB exchange rate needs continuous improvement in internal and external environments and policy signals for trend - like appreciation. Short - term strategies are provided for export and import enterprises [4]. - A - shares are expected to be easy to rise and hard to fall after the holiday, with a likely structural market. Attention should be paid to multiple events in the future [7]. - Treasury bonds are expected to continue the oscillatory trend, and it is advisable to enter long positions at low prices without chasing high [8]. - The shipping market is affected by the US policy on Chinese ships and the Gaza cease - fire negotiation. The 10 - contract may decline, and other contracts are likely to oscillate [12]. - Precious metals are expected to remain strong, but there may be price adjustments. Any adjustment is a mid - to - long - term buying opportunity [13][14][15]. - Copper prices are driven up by supply disruptions and Fed's rate - cut expectations. However, high - price industrial acceptance is a risk [16][17]. - Nickel prices are expected to rise slightly after the holiday, showing an oscillatory and strong pattern, and attention should be paid to multiple factors [18]. - For lithium carbonate, focus on downstream restocking. For industrial silicon and polysilicon, the price of industrial silicon may rise slightly, and polysilicon has high volatility and risks [20][21]. - Steel products face de - stocking pressure, and the market is expected to be under pressure. Iron ore prices are likely to rise in the short - term due to supply disturbances. Coal and coke prices' rebound depends on the steel market. Ferroalloys have prominent supply - demand contradictions [24][27][28]. - LPG is expected to run weakly. PX - TA and MEG - bottle chips are expected to oscillate weakly. Methanol supply pressure increases. PVC is in a weak - reality and strong - policy - disturbance pattern. Pure benzene and styrene follow the cost decline. Fuel oil is expected to open flat, and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to open slightly lower. Asphalt may open slightly lower, with a possible last - chance rise this year [30][33][34][37][39][40][41][42][44]. - Glass, soda ash, and caustic soda are expected to oscillate weakly. Propylene prices rise slightly [45][47][48][49]. - The pig market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and it is advisable to short at high prices. Oilseeds are affected by Sino - US negotiations. Oils may rebound after the holiday. Soybean prices are expected to decline. Cotton prices are under pressure, and it is advisable to short on rebounds. Sugar prices may open high and go high in the short - term. Egg prices are expected to be weak, and it is advisable to be cautious. Apple prices may rise due to bad weather. Red dates may face downward pressure [52][54][56][59][61][63][65][66][68]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Key information includes the Fed's meeting minutes, the US government shutdown, the US budget deficit, and international political situations. Domestic economic repair focuses on the demand side, and overseas uncertainties increase [1][2]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day's RMB exchange rate data is provided. The RMB exchange rate is affected by the Fed's decision, the US government shutdown, and the Japanese political situation. Short - term strategies for enterprises are given [3][4]. Stock Index - Before the holiday, A - shares were strong, and overseas stock indexes were also strong during the holiday. A - shares are expected to be easy to rise and hard to fall, with attention on multiple events [6][7]. Treasury Bonds - The Fed's internal differences and the US government shutdown are important information. The bond market rebounded before the holiday, and it is expected to oscillate after the holiday [8]. Container Shipping - Spot market prices are relatively stable. Global trade volume and the Gaza cease - fire negotiation are key factors. Short - term strategies for different contracts are provided [9][10][12]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Prices rose strongly during the holiday, driven by investment demand, inflation concerns, and the US government shutdown. Attention should be paid to data release and the Fed's meeting [13][14]. - **Copper**: Prices rose during the holiday due to supply disruptions and Fed's rate - cut expectations. There are concerns about industrial acceptance at high prices [16][17]. - **Nickel**: Prices were strong during the holiday, affected by Indonesian policies. It is expected to rise slightly after the holiday with limited upward momentum [18]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: There were no significant changes during the holiday. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production and downstream restocking [20]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: There were no significant changes during the holiday. Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly, and polysilicon has high volatility and risks [21]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Inventory increased significantly during the holiday. The market faces de - stocking pressure, and the price is expected to be under pressure [23][24]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply disturbances increase. The price is expected to rise in the short - term due to demand recovery and supply issues [25][26][27]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Supply elasticity is limited, and the price is supported by winter storage. The rebound depends on the steel market. Strategies for different contracts are provided [28][29]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: There is a prominent supply - demand contradiction, with high supply and weak demand [29]. Energy and Chemicals - **LPG**: Overseas prices were weak during the holiday. Supply pressure remains in the fourth quarter, and the demand requirement is higher [30]. - **PTA - PX**: It oscillates weakly with the cost side. The polyester season is not very strong, and PTA processing fees have limited expansion [33]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: There is a marginal improvement in supply and demand, but the long - term inventory increase expectation makes it difficult to break through upward [34][35][36]. - **Methanol**: Supply pressure increases, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [37]. - **PVC**: There were few changes during the holiday. The market is in a weak - reality and strong - policy - disturbance pattern [38][39]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Prices follow the cost decline. The supply of pure benzene is high, and the supply of styrene will increase later. Consider widening the price spread [40]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is expected to open flat, with a strong self - performance. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to open slightly lower, following the cost [41][42]. - **Asphalt**: Supply increases, and demand is affected by weather and funds. There may be a last - chance rise this year [43][44]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: They are expected to oscillate weakly, with different influencing factors for each [45][47][48]. - **Propylene**: Prices rise slightly, with changes in supply and demand [49]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: Prices declined during the holiday, in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. Short at high prices [52][53]. - **Oilseeds**: Affected by Sino - US negotiations, with different trends in the internal and external markets. Strategies for contracts are provided [54][55]. - **Oils**: May rebound after the holiday, with different supply and demand situations for different oils [56][57][58]. - **Soybeans**: Prices are expected to decline, with attention on policy and market factors [59][60]. - **Cotton**: Prices are under pressure, and it is advisable to short on rebounds, with a focus on multiple factors [61][62]. - **Sugar**: Prices may open high and go high in the short - term, affected by production and disasters [63][64]. - **Eggs**: Prices were weak during the holiday, and it is advisable to be cautious or short far - month contracts [65]. - **Apples**: Prices may rise due to bad weather, with different price levels for good and poor - quality products [66][67]. - **Red Dates**: May face downward pressure, with attention on weather and inventory [68].