1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradiction affecting the LPG price trend lies in the cost - end crude oil market's volatile nature, the firmness of the external propane market, and the weakening of the domestic fundamentals. Although the fundamentals are marginally weakening, the market is pricing in the supply disruption risk due to the escalating US - Iran situation. In the short term, the US - Iran situation may fluctuate, leading to increased market volatility. The direction is still considered for long - positions, while also being aware of the upside risks [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Cost - end crude oil: In the medium to long term, crude oil is affected by both the oversupply fundamentals and geopolitical factors. In the short term, with relatively stable fundamentals, geopolitics dominates. This week, the crude oil price generally increased. Continuous attention should be paid to OPEC policies and the development of the US - Iran situation [1]. - External propane: The external propane market is oscillating strongly, with FEI stronger than CP. The shipping volume in the Middle East remains low. The February CP monthly price for propane is $545/ton (+20), and for butane is $540/ton (+20). In the US, supply declined this week due to the cold wave, and inventory continued to decrease, but the absolute inventory level is still high. With the strengthening of the swap price, the premium has weakened [1]. - Domestic fundamentals: The supply this week continued to be low, with low arrival volumes and continuous decline in port inventory and refinery product volumes. The demand side weakened significantly, and the PDH operating rate dropped to 60% due to the maintenance of several plants [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - **Market positioning**: The market is expected to be in a range - bound state, with the PG03 price range from 3,800 to 4,500 yuan/ton. - **Basis strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach as the market fluctuates greatly due to geopolitical uncertainties. This week, the spot price was weak due to refinery sales, while the futures price oscillated upwards driven by overseas factors, causing the basis to shrink. Currently, the PG03 contract has priced in a large amount of geopolitical premium [15]. - **Calendar spread strategy**: Consider reverse arbitrage at high prices. The PG03 contract is the forced cancellation month, and with a relatively small short - term warehouse receipt volume, reverse arbitrage can be carried out at high prices [16]. - **Hedging and arbitrage strategy**: Narrow the internal - external price spread [16]. 3.1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - **LPG price range prediction**: The predicted monthly price range for LPG is from 3,800 to 4,500 yuan/ton, with the current 20 - day rolling volatility at 21.97% and the 3 - year historical percentage of the current volatility at 36.22% [17]. - **Hedging strategy**: - **Inventory management**: For enterprises with excessive inventory worried about price drops, they can short PG futures according to their inventory levels to lock in profits and offset production costs. For example, short PG2603 with a hedging ratio of 25% at an entry range of 4,400 - 4,500 yuan/ton. They can also sell call options to collect premiums to reduce costs and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises [17][19]. - **Procurement management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy PG futures at low prices on the futures market to lock in procurement costs. For instance, buy PG2603 with a hedging ratio of 25% at an entry range of 3,800 - 3,900 yuan/ton. They can also sell put options to collect premiums to reduce procurement costs and lock in the spot purchase price if the PG price falls [19]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: The US - Iran situation has continued to escalate. The US is considering military strikes against Iran, and Iran has announced plans to hold live - fire naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday and Monday [19]. - **Negative information**: PDH maintenance increased this week. Several plants such as Jinneng (900,000 tons), Wanhua (900,000 tons), Juzhengyuan (600,000 tons), and Zhongjing (1,000,000 tons) were under maintenance, causing a significant decline in the operating rate [20]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - On February 6, the US January employment data will be released. - Pay attention to the risk of the US government shutting down again. - Monitor the development of the US - Iran situation [25]. 3.3 Market Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic market**: - **Unilateral trend and capital flow**: This week, the PG03 contract generally oscillated upwards. The net positions of the main profitable seats decreased; the top five long positions in the dragon - tiger list increased significantly, while the top five short positions showed no significant change; the net short positions of the dominant seats decreased slightly; the net long positions of foreign capital and retail investors decreased slightly. - **Technical analysis**: The PG03 contract found support at the daily - line middle - rail last week and continued to rise this week. It is currently near the previous high. Technically, it is still advisable to go long on dips [22]. - **Basis and calendar spread structure**: The LPG inter - month structure remained in a BACK structure this week, with the 3 - 4 calendar spread at - 294 yuan/ton [27]. - **External market**: - **Unilateral trend**: FEI M1 closed at $573/ton (+21.75), with a premium of $19.25/ton; CP M1 closed at $546/ton (+7.38), with a CP premium of - $15/ton; MB M1 closed at $336/ton (- 6.5). The FEI quotation remained active, and freight rates also increased, with prices rising this week. - **Calendar spread structure**: This week, the FEI M1 - M2 spread was $31.69/ton; the CP M1 - M2 spread was $9.37/ton; the MB M1 - M2 spread was - $11.50/ton. The near - month MB was weak due to the impact of the cold wave on exports and market wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage spreads, causing the calendar spread to weaken [41]. - **Regional spread tracking**: This week, the FEI - MB spread strengthened significantly. The FEI buying quotes remained active, and freight rates increased, while the MB was generally weak due to the wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage [43]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - **Upstream profit**: The gross profit of major refineries this week was 660 yuan/ton (- 102), and the gross profit of Shandong local refineries was 166 yuan/ton (- 88). Refinery profits continued to shrink this week [46]. - **Downstream profit**: The PDH profit with FEI as the cost was - 228 yuan/ton, and the PDH profit with CP as the cost was - 353 yuan/ton, remaining in a loss state. The MTBE gas - separation profit was - 39.25 yuan/ton, the isomerization profit was - 3.67 yuan/ton, and the alkylated oil profit was - 206 yuan/ton. Profits fluctuated slightly [48]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking This week, the import profit weakened, especially the FEI import profit in South China, mainly affected by the strengthening of the FEI price [52]. 3.5 Supply, Demand, and Inventory 3.5.1 Overseas Supply and Demand - **US supply and demand**: - **EIA weekly supply and demand**: According to last week's data, production decreased slightly, demand changed little, exports increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline, but the overall inventory level remained high [56]. - **KPLER export situation**: In 2025, the US exported a total of 68,283 kt of LPG, a year - on - year increase of 2.52%. Among them, exports to China were 10,187 kt, a year - on - year decrease of 43%. In January 2026, the US exported a total of 6,158 kt of LPG, a year - on - year increase of 5.24%. Weekly shipments were not significantly affected by the cold wave [62]. - **Middle East supply**: In 2025, the Middle East exported a total of 48,463 kt of LPG, a year - on - year increase of 2.43%. Among them, exports to India were 21,171 kt, a year - on - year decrease of 1.29%; exports to China were 17,905 kt, a year - on - year increase of 25.21%. In January 2026, the Middle East exported 4,043 kt of LPG, a year - on - year decrease of 0.41%. Weekly shipping volume in the Middle East has remained low in recent weeks [66]. - **India supply and demand**: From January to December, India's total LPG demand was 331,774 kt, a year - on - year increase of 6.67%. In 2025, LPG imports were 23,229 kt, a year - on - year increase of 8.12%. In January 2026, India imported 2,204 kt of LPG, a year - on - year increase of 23.68% [69]. - **South Korea supply and demand**: South Korea's LPG demand shows little seasonality as most is used for the chemical industry. In 2025, South Korea imported a total of 8,434 kt of LPG, a year - on - year decrease of 2.56%. In January 2026, South Korea imported 762 kt of LPG, a year - on - year increase of 13.32%. Since the fourth quarter, the cracking economy of LPG relative to naphtha has been poor [77]. - **Japan supply and demand**: Japan is highly dependent on LPG imports, and its demand and imports are highly seasonal due to a large proportion of combustion demand. In January 2026, Japan imported 1,004 kt of LPG, a year - on - year decrease of 4.78%, and its LPG inventory reached a new low compared to the same period [80]. 3.5.2 Domestic Supply and Demand - **Domestic supply - demand balance**: - **Supply**: With relatively high refinery profits, the domestic LPG production is expected to remain at a high level, but the overall external release volume is not high. Import volume is also expected to be low based on shipping data [83]. - **Demand**: Based on profit and seasonal factors, chemical demand is decreasing, while combustion demand is increasing. In the first quarter, chemical demand is expected to weaken marginally due to PDH maintenance [83]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory is decreasing, mainly at the port [83]. - **Domestic supply**: The operating rate of major refineries is 80.02% (+1.24%); the operating rate of independent refineries is 53.60% (0%), and the utilization rate excluding large - scale refineries is 49.42% (0%). The domestic LPG external sales volume is 54.31 tons (+1.02), and the arrival volume is 49.5 tons (+0.9). In terms of inventory, the refinery storage capacity utilization rate is 24.60% (+0.24%), and the port inventory is 187.6 tons (- 12.08) [87]. - **Domestic demand**: - **PDH demand**: Several plants such as Jinneng, Wanhua, Zhongjing, and Juzhengyuan are under maintenance [97]. - **MTBE demand**: There were no plant changes this week, and the internal - external price spread was oscillating [100]. - **Alkylated oil demand**: This week, Jingmen Yuchu was under maintenance until the end of January, and Puyang Zhongwei started new maintenance [107]. - **Combustion demand**: No specific data or trends were mentioned other than relevant seasonal charts [109].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic civil gas prices have strengthened again in January, with prices reaching 4471 yuan/ton as of January 13, an increase of 141 yuan/ton compared to the end of December [1] Group 1: Price Trends - The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) has risen more than expected, contributing to the increase in domestic gas prices [1] - International market prices remain high, leading to a weakened willingness to import at domestic terminals [1] - The price increase is supported by recovering winter combustion demand and rising crude oil prices [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - There is a significant delay in unloading from some aging vessels, resulting in sellers having ample inventory [1] - The overall supply-demand situation remains tight, providing support for the market, although the price increase has led to domestic prices being significantly higher than imported prices [1] - The gap between industrial and civil gas prices continues to widen, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Domestic civil gas prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels in the near term [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - LPG prices mostly fluctuate following the trends of external propane and crude oil. Recently, the domestic PG has been relatively strong, mainly influenced by its stable fundamentals. However, from an expected perspective, the trend is under pressure. Overseas supply remains resilient, and domestic PDH profits are severely pressured. There is short - term support, and marginal changes should be monitored [2]. - The near - term trading logic shows that the current situation is relatively neutral to strong, while the expectation is relatively weak. The long - term trading expectation is affected by multiple factors on both the supply and demand sides [5][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Cost - end: The international crude oil market is volatile, facing fundamental pressure of oversupply and geopolitical risks. It once fell below $60 this week but rebounded later and remained weak overall [1]. - External propane: The overseas propane market is relatively strong. US production decline has led to inventory reduction, and Middle - Eastern shipments are still low, with a tight supply pattern continuing [1]. - Domestic fundamentals: Supply - side arrivals are low this week, and port inventories are decreasing. On the chemical demand side, PDH's operating rate has risen to 75% but is in deep - loss, and there are rumors of some enterprises' planned maintenance [1]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Market positioning: The market is in a volatile state, with the PG02 price range at 3800 - 4400 [13]. - Strategy suggestions: The basis strategy and the calendar - spread strategy are both volatile. For the hedging and arbitrage strategy, narrow the internal - external price difference and widen the PP/PG ratio when the price is low [13]. - Recent strategy review: PG1 - 2 and PG3 - 4 reverse spreads have been closed with profits. The long - PP and short - PG position is under observation. It is expected that some enterprises will enter maintenance in the first quarter, and attention should be paid to widening the 05PP/03PG ratio [14]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - LPG price range forecast: The monthly price range is 3800 - 4400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.82% and a historical percentage of 39.18% in three years [15]. - Hedging strategy: Different hedging strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management, including futures and options hedging, with specific suggestions on the trading direction, hedging ratio, and entry range [15]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: Six departments have issued a notice to promote the clean and efficient utilization of coal projects and eliminate backward production capacity. Geopolitical factors support oil prices, and domestic fundamentals are relatively strong, with port inventories decreasing and PDH demand stable in the short - term [16]. - Bearish information: No bearish information is provided in the report. 3.2.2 Next Week's Focus Events - December 22: China's December LPR. - December 23: The revised value of the annualized quarterly - on - quarterly growth rate of the US real GDP in the third quarter [22]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Domestic market: The PG01 contract fluctuated upward this week. There were minor changes in the net positions of major profit - making seats, long - 5 and short - 5 positions in the top - 10 list, and net positions of powerful seats, foreign investors, and retail investors [19]. - Technical analysis: The PG01 contract fluctuated upward this week, oscillating between 4000 - 4200 on the daily chart [20]. - Basis and calendar - spread structure: The LPG calendar - spread still shows a BACK structure, with the 1 - 2 month spread at 119 yuan/ton (+35) [24]. 3.3.2 External Market - Unilateral trend: FEI M1 closed at $512/ton (-2), CP M1 at $498/ton (-9), and MB M1 at $339/ton (-9). The swap market weakened along with crude oil, and there were many cancellations of Chinese tenders for January - February [27]. - Calendar - spread structure: This week, the FEI M1 - M2 spread was $20/ton (+1), CP M1 - M2 was $6/ton (-3), and MB M1 - M2 was $1.3/ton (-1.6) [35]. - Regional price - difference tracking: US propane demand weakened recently, and the FEI - MB and CP - MB price differences strengthened [37]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream Profits - This week, the gross profit of major refineries was 614 yuan/ton (-31), and that of Shandong local refineries was 471 yuan/ton (+29). Profit fluctuations were small [40]. 3.4.2 Downstream Profits - PDH profits calculated by FEI and CP were - 289 yuan/ton (-46) and - 430 yuan/ton (+122) respectively, indicating continuous losses. MTBE gas - fractionation profit, isomerization profit, and alkylation oil profit were - 80 yuan/ton (-17), - 265 yuan/ton (-77), and - 510 yuan/ton (-37) respectively, with small recent fluctuations [42]. - Import profits: External spot prices weakened slightly this week, while domestic import gas prices remained stable, leading to the restoration of import profits [45]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory 3.5.1 Overseas Supply - Demand - US supply - demand: This week, production declined slightly, demand was weak, and inventory was slowly decreasing. From January to November, US LPG exports totaled 62,703 kt, a year - on - year increase of 3.09%, with exports to China decreasing by 40% [49][56]. - Middle - Eastern supply: From January to November, Middle - Eastern LPG exports totaled 44,850 kt, a year - on - year increase of 2.88%. Exports to India decreased by 1.55%, while those to China increased by 27%. Shipments have been low recently [59]. - Indian supply - demand: From January to November, India's LPG demand totaled 30,101 kt, a year - on - year increase of 6.26%, and imports totaled 21,048 kt, a year - on - year increase of 7.49%. The second half of the year is the seasonal peak, with high demand and imports [64]. - South Korean supply - demand: South Korea's LPG demand has no obvious seasonality. Imports were high from May to September. Currently, propane cracking profits are still better than naphtha, and imports are expected to remain relatively high [73]. - Japanese supply - demand: Japan is highly dependent on imported LPG, and its demand and imports have obvious seasonality. With the cooling weather, imports are expected to increase [83]. 3.5.2 Domestic Supply - Demand - Supply: With high refinery profits, domestic LPG production is expected to remain high, but external sales volume is not high. Import volume is also not high [87]. - Demand: Chemical demand decreases, while combustion demand increases. Chemical demand in the fourth quarter is better than expected [87]. - Inventory: Overall, inventory decreased slightly, mainly at ports [87].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current core contradictions affecting the LPG price trend include cost - end oil price pressure from supply surplus and geopolitical issues, with a recent downward shift in the price center; the release of the CP November contract price with a decline; a slight inventory reduction of US C3 but still at a historical high; and relatively stable domestic fundamentals with a slight increase in supply and strong chemical demand [3]. - The short - term domestic fundamentals are neutral to positive, with low expected arrivals and high seasonal开工 of PDH and MTBE [3]. - Negative factors include the downward shift of the oil price center and relatively high domestic valuation [4]. Summary by Directory LPG Price and Volatility - The monthly price range prediction of LPG is 4000 - 4500, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 14.05%, and the historical percentage of the current volatility in 3 years is 4.00% [2]. LPG Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - When inventory is high and worried about price decline, for a long spot position, it is recommended to short PG2601 futures with a 25% hedging ratio in the range of 4300 - 4400 to lock in profits; also, sell PG2601C4400 call options with a 25% ratio in the range of 60 - 70 to collect premiums and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises [2]. Procurement Management - When the procurement of regular inventory is low and based on order - based procurement, for a short spot position, it is recommended to buy PG2601 futures with a 25% hedging ratio in the range of 4000 - 4100 to lock in procurement costs; also, sell PG2601P4000 put options with a 25% ratio in the range of 30 - 50 to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the PG price falls [2]. Industry Data - A large amount of data on prices, spreads, monthly spreads, ratios, and profits of various LPG - related products are presented, including daily and weekly changes [7]. Price Seasonality - Seasonal charts of various prices such as MB M1, NWE C3 M1, FEI, CP, LPG futures, and LPG cheapest delivery products are provided [9][10][11]. Spread Seasonality - Seasonal charts of spreads like FEI - MOPJ M1, PG - FEI, PG - CP, etc. are shown [17][19][20]. Monthly Spread Seasonality - Seasonal charts of monthly spreads such as LPG01 - 02, LPG12 - 01, FEI M1 - M2, etc. are presented [33][34][28]. Ratio Seasonality - Seasonal charts of ratios such as FEI/Brent, MB/WTI, FEI/MOPJ M1, etc. are provided [37][39]. Profit Seasonality - Seasonal charts of profits including LPG import profit - FEI, LPG import profit - CP, PDH profit, and various spot profits are shown [44][45][46]. Freight Seasonality - Seasonal charts of freight from the Middle East to the Far East, the US to Europe, and the US Gulf to the Far East are presented [62][63]. Other Seasonality - A seasonal chart of the water level of the Panama Canal - Gatun Lake is provided [66].

Report Overview - **Report Title**: LPG Industry Risk Management Daily Report - **Date**: November 20, 2025 - **Analyst**: Dai Yifan (Investment Consulting Certificate: Z0015428) - **Research Assistant**: Shen Weiwei (Futures Practitioner Certificate: F03140197) - **Contact Email**: shenweiwei@nawaa.com - **Investment Consulting Business Qualification**: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The core contradictions affecting LPG price trends include cost - end crude oil under supply - surplus pressure and geopolitical disturbances, with weekly crude prices oscillating between $62 - $66; the release of the November CP contract price with propane at $475/ton (-20) and butane at $460/ton (-15), indicating supply - side pressure; the start of propane destocking in the US with inventory still at a historical high; and relatively stable domestic fundamentals with low arrivals and a slight contraction in the supply side, while chemical demand remains strong in the short - term with PDH operating at a 70% - 75% rate despite compressed profits [3]. - The signing of a 2026 LPG supply agreement between Indian state - owned oil companies and the US, involving 2.2 million tons of annual imports, is a positive factor for the US supply side [3]. - Negative factors include continuous losses at the domestic PDH end, which may cause negative feedback, and the contraction of Asian cracking profits potentially reducing the demand for PG as a cracking substitute, with South Korean companies having maintenance and load - reduction plans in November and December [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 LPG Price and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for LPG is 4000 - 4500 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.86% and a historical 3 - year volatility percentage of 1.82% [2]. 3.2 LPG Hedging Strategies 3.2.1 Inventory Management - When inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, for long - position spot exposure, it is recommended to short PG2601 futures at a 25% hedging ratio in the 4400 - 4500 yuan/ton range to lock in profits and cover production costs; also, sell PG2601C4400 call options at a 25% ratio in the 60 - 70 range to collect premiums and reduce costs [2]. 3.2.2 Procurement Management - When procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for short - position spot exposure, it is recommended to buy PG2601 futures at a 25% hedging ratio in the 4000 - 4100 yuan/ton range to lock in procurement costs; also, sell PG26014000 put options at a 25% ratio in the 30 - 50 range to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [2]. 3.3 Industry Data Summary - A large amount of data on LPG - related prices, spreads, month - spreads, ratios, and profits are presented, including the prices of Brent, WTI, various LPG benchmarks (MOPJ, FEI, CP, etc.), their daily and weekly changes, and different profit calculations such as import profits, PDH profits, and cracking profits [6]. 3.4 Seasonal Data - Seasonal data for various indicators are provided, including price seasonality of LPG and its related benchmarks, spread seasonality, month - spread seasonality, ratio seasonality, profit seasonality, and freight seasonality [8][10][13][15][16][25][32][33][39][43][57]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, considering the approaching peak civilian use season, LPG prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. However, in the medium - to - long - term, with high supply and the expectation that demand is unlikely to strengthen beyond expectations, a bearish outlook is maintained. [6] - This week, crude oil prices continued to be weak, but PG remained firm supported by strong demand. OPEC+ further increased crude oil production. Although geopolitical disturbances between the US and Venezuela, Iran, and Russia may offset the increase to some extent, it does not change the abundant supply of oil and gas. On the demand side, the peak civilian use season is approaching, which can maintain the strength of gas prices for a certain period, while the chemical industry has poor profits and the operating rate is difficult to stay at a high level. Overall, in the long - run, LPG supply is very abundant. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART 01: LPG Market Review - In the current period, both the commercial volume and arrival volume of LPG decreased, and the reduction on the supply side provided support, causing port inventories to decline. In the next period, although the commercial volume is expected to decrease, the increase in vessel arrivals at the docks is significant, so the supply - side pressure will rise, and port inventories are expected to increase, while the inventories of production enterprises may decline slightly. [5] - The international market first rose and then fell. In the early stage, prices were at a relatively low level, and strong buying in the market drove prices up. However, buyers' acceptance of high - priced resources was insufficient, market sentiment weakened, and prices turned down. Although the November CP price decreased, the rising import cost strongly supported market sentiment, and both domestic and international spot markets increased. Coupled with the expectation of the peak combustion demand season, the winter contracts were less affected by crude oil and showed a strong trend. [5] PART 02: LPG Fundamentals LPG Supply - Domestic - The report presents data on the operating rates of major refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units, Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units, comprehensive refining profits of major refineries, and the weekly commercial volume of LPG in China from 2021 to 2025. [12] LPG Supply - Import - It shows data on the weekly arrival volume of LPG in China, the weekly import trade gross profit of LPG in the South China region, the monthly total import volume of LPG in China, and the shipping prices from the Arabian Gulf region and the US Gulf Coast to the Far East from 2021 to 2025. [15][16][18] LPG Inventory - Data on weekly port inventories, refinery storage capacity ratios, port storage capacity ratios, and factory - level inventories of LPG in China from 2021 to 2025 are provided. Also, the weekly production - sales ratios in the South China, East China regions, and Shandong are presented. [21][23][24] LPG Downstream Demand - The report includes data on the weekly operating rate of PDH plants in China, the weekly production gross profit of PDH in China, the weekly production gross profit of MTBE's isomerization etherification in Shandong, the weekly capacity utilization rate of MTBE export factories in China, the weekly capacity utilization rate of alkylated oil in China, and the weekly production gross profit of alkylated oil in Shandong from 2021 to 2025. [26][28][30] PART 03: LPG - Related Price Data Import Cost: CP Forward and Current - Month Prices - It shows the CP contract prices of propane and butane from 2021 to 2025, the CP crude oil price trend, and the spot price of propane (frozen cargo) in the South China region from 2021 to 2025. [35] Spot: Domestic Refinery Civil Gas Prices and Import Discounts - Data on the ex - factory prices of civil LPG from Guangzhou Petrochemical, Jinan Refinery, and Shanghai Gaoqiao from 2021 to 2025 are presented. [38][39] PART 04: LPG Other Data - The report provides data on the basis of the LPG main contract from 2021 to 2025, the difference between the first - and second - consecutive contracts from 2021 to 2025, and the registered warehouse receipts of LPG in major delivery warehouses in 2024 - 2025. [42][44] Key Strategy Recommendation - For futures trading, in the medium - to - long - term, try to go short at high prices. [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - The core contradictions affecting the LPG price trend include cost - end crude oil facing supply - surplus pressure and geopolitical disturbances, with the current price oscillating around $65, and OPEC maintaining an increasing production state [2] - The November CP contract price was announced, with propane at $475/ton (-$20) and butane at $460/ton (-$15), better than expected. The equivalent RMB landed cost is about 4394 yuan/ton for propane and 4276 yuan/ton for butane [2] - US propane inventories continued to accumulate this week, reaching a historical high and waiting for an inventory inflection point [2] - The State Council adjusted tariff - adding measures on November 10, 2025. The 24% tariff on US imports will be suspended for one year, and the 10% tariff on PG will remain, which helps stabilize logistics [3] - During the Sino - US talks this week, an agreement was reached on issues such as tariffs and export controls, and the Sino - US economic and trade friction was suspended [4] - The domestic LPG fundamentals are relatively stable. Supply increased this week, while demand remained stable. However, due to the rise in propane price and the decline in PL/PP price, PDH profits were significantly compressed. Continuous or deepening losses may cause negative feedback [4] - PDH losses may cause negative feedback, and propane cracking profits have also shrunk below zero [5] Summary by Related Catalogs LPG Price Range Prediction - The predicted monthly price range for LPG is 4000 - 4500 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.37% and a 3 - year historical volatility percentage of 35.54% [1] LPG Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - When inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, for a long - position in the spot market, it is recommended to short PG2512 futures at 4400 - 4500 yuan/ton with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in profits and cover production costs; also, sell PG2512C4400 call options at 60 - 70 yuan with a 25% hedging ratio to collect premiums and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises [1] Procurement Management - When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for a short - position in the spot market, it is recommended to buy PG2512 futures at around 4000 yuan/ton with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs; also, sell PG2512P4000 put options at 50 - 70 yuan with a 25% hedging ratio to collect premiums and lock in the spot buying price if the PG price drops [1] Industry Data Summary - The report provides price, spread, monthly spread, price ratio, and profit data for various LPG - related products on different dates, including Brent, WTI, MOPJ, etc., along with their daily and weekly changes [7] Seasonal Data - The report presents seasonal data for prices, spreads, monthly spreads, price ratios, profits, and freight rates of various LPG - related products, such as LPG futures, FEI, CP, etc., from 2021 to 2025 [9][11][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment View: Bullish [7] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - Temporary Observation; Arbitrage - Long PP2601 and Short PL2601 [7] 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the main contract of LPG futures strengthened, with the international LPG market price rising. The domestic supply decreased while imports increased, and port inventories rebounded, but there is an expected increase in chemical demand. The market confidence has recovered due to factors such as the expected increase in November import costs and the peak demand season in the far - month. [9] - The supply, demand, inventory, and other aspects of LPG show different trends. The supply is expected to decline this week, demand is gradually recovering, inventory shows a mixed trend, and the valuation of the LPG market is bullish. It is recommended to pay attention to the impact of the PN spread continuously below $50 on the raw material procurement of cracking units and overseas fundamental changes. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of LPG futures fluctuated between 4170 - 4330 yuan/ton. The international crude oil price first rose and then fell, but the international LPG market had a good trading atmosphere, and prices increased. As of Thursday, the basis in East China was - 1 yuan/ton, in South China was 114 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was - 6 yuan/ton. The lowest deliverable product was priced in Shandong. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 3811, an increase of 1395 from last Thursday. [9] 3.2 Supply - Last week, the total LPG commodity volume was about 53.06 million tons (-1.19%), including 20.93 million tons of civil gas, 21.34 million tons of industrial gas, and 18.05 million tons of ether - after carbon four. The LPG arrival volume was 82 million tons (59.11%). Enterprises in East and South China had maintenance last week, leading to a decline in supply. Some maintenance units in the Northeast, Shandong, and East China resumed, but an enterprise in Shandong had maintenance at the end of the week, which may continue to affect supply, and the domestic commodity volume is expected to decline this week. [7][8] 3.3 Demand - In late October, the winter heating demand gradually emerged, and the LPG combustion demand gradually improved, with demand slowly recovering. In the carbon - four deep - processing aspect, the restart of the maleic anhydride unit downstream of n - butane in November may drive an increase in demand, but the profit of the deep - processing unit is under pressure, suppressing the rebound of raw material prices. For isobutane, the dehydrogenation unit started operation, and the demand side improved. Overall, the demand for carbon - four deep - processing is relatively stable. In the propane deep - processing aspect, demand increased month - on - month, and the operating rate returned to a high level, but the continuous loss of unit profit due to the significant increase in raw material prices and unchanged terminal demand structure has dampened the production enthusiasm of enterprises. [6][7] 3.4 Inventory - Last week, the LPG factory inventory was 18.17 million tons (-2.47%), and the port inventory was 309.72 million tons (3.96%). Refineries promoted sales by reducing prices this week, and shipments improved to varying degrees. Downstream buyers replenished at low prices, with stable market enthusiasm and a continuous decline in the storage capacity utilization rate. At ports, ships delayed by strong winds unloaded in a concentrated manner, resulting in a significant increase in imported resources. With a slight increase in chemical demand, downstream buyers maintained rigid procurement, and port inventories showed an accumulation trend. [7][8] 3.5 Basis and Position - The weekly average basis was - 3.00 yuan/ton in East China, 120.20 yuan/ton in South China, and - 5.80 yuan/ton in Shandong. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts was 4194, an increase of 383, and the lowest deliverable location was East China. [7][8] 3.6 Chemical Downstream - Operating Rate: PDH was 73.85%, MTBE was 56.50%, and alkylation was 44.30%. - Profit: The profit of PDH to produce propylene was - 580 yuan/ton, MTBE isomerization was - 128 yuan/ton, and alkylation in Shandong was - 453 yuan/ton. [7] 3.7 Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was 1.28 (2.18%), and the PG primary - secondary month spread was 80 yuan/ton (-29.20%). Affected by geopolitical factors, the oil prices rebounded significantly this week, and the PG - SC cracking spread narrowed. [7] 3.8 Other Factors - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee clarified the development goals and key tasks for the 15th Five - Year Plan period. - The China - US summit in Busan achieved positive progress, and the US made a series of commitments to suspend or cancel tariffs, export controls, and industrial investigations against China to ease bilateral economic and trade relations. - The military confrontation between the US and Venezuela intensified, and market news was constantly disturbing. - Europe and the US imposed sanctions on two Russian refineries, and India re - planned its energy procurement plan. [7]