LPG产业风险管理日报 2025/11/20 戴一帆（投资咨询证书：Z0015428） 研究助理：沈玮玮 期货从业证号：F03140197 联系邮箱：shenweiwei@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 LPG价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分比（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LPG | 4000-4500 | 12.86% | 1.82% | source： 同花顺,南华研究 LPG套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 库存过高，担心价格 下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的 库存情况，做空PG期货来锁定利润，弥补 企业的生产成本 | PG2601 | 卖出 | 25% | 4400-4500 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, considering the approaching peak civilian use season, LPG prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. However, in the medium - to - long - term, with high supply and the expectation that demand is unlikely to strengthen beyond expectations, a bearish outlook is maintained. [6] - This week, crude oil prices continued to be weak, but PG remained firm supported by strong demand. OPEC+ further increased crude oil production. Although geopolitical disturbances between the US and Venezuela, Iran, and Russia may offset the increase to some extent, it does not change the abundant supply of oil and gas. On the demand side, the peak civilian use season is approaching, which can maintain the strength of gas prices for a certain period, while the chemical industry has poor profits and the operating rate is difficult to stay at a high level. Overall, in the long - run, LPG supply is very abundant. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART 01: LPG Market Review - In the current period, both the commercial volume and arrival volume of LPG decreased, and the reduction on the supply side provided support, causing port inventories to decline. In the next period, although the commercial volume is expected to decrease, the increase in vessel arrivals at the docks is significant, so the supply - side pressure will rise, and port inventories are expected to increase, while the inventories of production enterprises may decline slightly. [5] - The international market first rose and then fell. In the early stage, prices were at a relatively low level, and strong buying in the market drove prices up. However, buyers' acceptance of high - priced resources was insufficient, market sentiment weakened, and prices turned down. Although the November CP price decreased, the rising import cost strongly supported market sentiment, and both domestic and international spot markets increased. Coupled with the expectation of the peak combustion demand season, the winter contracts were less affected by crude oil and showed a strong trend. [5] PART 02: LPG Fundamentals LPG Supply - Domestic - The report presents data on the operating rates of major refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units, Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units, comprehensive refining profits of major refineries, and the weekly commercial volume of LPG in China from 2021 to 2025. [12] LPG Supply - Import - It shows data on the weekly arrival volume of LPG in China, the weekly import trade gross profit of LPG in the South China region, the monthly total import volume of LPG in China, and the shipping prices from the Arabian Gulf region and the US Gulf Coast to the Far East from 2021 to 2025. [15][16][18] LPG Inventory - Data on weekly port inventories, refinery storage capacity ratios, port storage capacity ratios, and factory - level inventories of LPG in China from 2021 to 2025 are provided. Also, the weekly production - sales ratios in the South China, East China regions, and Shandong are presented. [21][23][24] LPG Downstream Demand - The report includes data on the weekly operating rate of PDH plants in China, the weekly production gross profit of PDH in China, the weekly production gross profit of MTBE's isomerization etherification in Shandong, the weekly capacity utilization rate of MTBE export factories in China, the weekly capacity utilization rate of alkylated oil in China, and the weekly production gross profit of alkylated oil in Shandong from 2021 to 2025. [26][28][30] PART 03: LPG - Related Price Data Import Cost: CP Forward and Current - Month Prices - It shows the CP contract prices of propane and butane from 2021 to 2025, the CP crude oil price trend, and the spot price of propane (frozen cargo) in the South China region from 2021 to 2025. [35] Spot: Domestic Refinery Civil Gas Prices and Import Discounts - Data on the ex - factory prices of civil LPG from Guangzhou Petrochemical, Jinan Refinery, and Shanghai Gaoqiao from 2021 to 2025 are presented. [38][39] PART 04: LPG Other Data - The report provides data on the basis of the LPG main contract from 2021 to 2025, the difference between the first - and second - consecutive contracts from 2021 to 2025, and the registered warehouse receipts of LPG in major delivery warehouses in 2024 - 2025. [42][44] Key Strategy Recommendation - For futures trading, in the medium - to - long - term, try to go short at high prices. [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - The core contradictions affecting the LPG price trend include cost - end crude oil facing supply - surplus pressure and geopolitical disturbances, with the current price oscillating around $65, and OPEC maintaining an increasing production state [2] - The November CP contract price was announced, with propane at $475/ton (-$20) and butane at $460/ton (-$15), better than expected. The equivalent RMB landed cost is about 4394 yuan/ton for propane and 4276 yuan/ton for butane [2] - US propane inventories continued to accumulate this week, reaching a historical high and waiting for an inventory inflection point [2] - The State Council adjusted tariff - adding measures on November 10, 2025. The 24% tariff on US imports will be suspended for one year, and the 10% tariff on PG will remain, which helps stabilize logistics [3] - During the Sino - US talks this week, an agreement was reached on issues such as tariffs and export controls, and the Sino - US economic and trade friction was suspended [4] - The domestic LPG fundamentals are relatively stable. Supply increased this week, while demand remained stable. However, due to the rise in propane price and the decline in PL/PP price, PDH profits were significantly compressed. Continuous or deepening losses may cause negative feedback [4] - PDH losses may cause negative feedback, and propane cracking profits have also shrunk below zero [5] Summary by Related Catalogs LPG Price Range Prediction - The predicted monthly price range for LPG is 4000 - 4500 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.37% and a 3 - year historical volatility percentage of 35.54% [1] LPG Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - When inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, for a long - position in the spot market, it is recommended to short PG2512 futures at 4400 - 4500 yuan/ton with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in profits and cover production costs; also, sell PG2512C4400 call options at 60 - 70 yuan with a 25% hedging ratio to collect premiums and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises [1] Procurement Management - When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for a short - position in the spot market, it is recommended to buy PG2512 futures at around 4000 yuan/ton with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs; also, sell PG2512P4000 put options at 50 - 70 yuan with a 25% hedging ratio to collect premiums and lock in the spot buying price if the PG price drops [1] Industry Data Summary - The report provides price, spread, monthly spread, price ratio, and profit data for various LPG - related products on different dates, including Brent, WTI, MOPJ, etc., along with their daily and weekly changes [7] Seasonal Data - The report presents seasonal data for prices, spreads, monthly spreads, price ratios, profits, and freight rates of various LPG - related products, such as LPG futures, FEI, CP, etc., from 2021 to 2025 [9][11][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment View: Bullish [7] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - Temporary Observation; Arbitrage - Long PP2601 and Short PL2601 [7] 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the main contract of LPG futures strengthened, with the international LPG market price rising. The domestic supply decreased while imports increased, and port inventories rebounded, but there is an expected increase in chemical demand. The market confidence has recovered due to factors such as the expected increase in November import costs and the peak demand season in the far - month. [9] - The supply, demand, inventory, and other aspects of LPG show different trends. The supply is expected to decline this week, demand is gradually recovering, inventory shows a mixed trend, and the valuation of the LPG market is bullish. It is recommended to pay attention to the impact of the PN spread continuously below $50 on the raw material procurement of cracking units and overseas fundamental changes. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of LPG futures fluctuated between 4170 - 4330 yuan/ton. The international crude oil price first rose and then fell, but the international LPG market had a good trading atmosphere, and prices increased. As of Thursday, the basis in East China was - 1 yuan/ton, in South China was 114 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was - 6 yuan/ton. The lowest deliverable product was priced in Shandong. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 3811, an increase of 1395 from last Thursday. [9] 3.2 Supply - Last week, the total LPG commodity volume was about 53.06 million tons (-1.19%), including 20.93 million tons of civil gas, 21.34 million tons of industrial gas, and 18.05 million tons of ether - after carbon four. The LPG arrival volume was 82 million tons (59.11%). Enterprises in East and South China had maintenance last week, leading to a decline in supply. Some maintenance units in the Northeast, Shandong, and East China resumed, but an enterprise in Shandong had maintenance at the end of the week, which may continue to affect supply, and the domestic commodity volume is expected to decline this week. [7][8] 3.3 Demand - In late October, the winter heating demand gradually emerged, and the LPG combustion demand gradually improved, with demand slowly recovering. In the carbon - four deep - processing aspect, the restart of the maleic anhydride unit downstream of n - butane in November may drive an increase in demand, but the profit of the deep - processing unit is under pressure, suppressing the rebound of raw material prices. For isobutane, the dehydrogenation unit started operation, and the demand side improved. Overall, the demand for carbon - four deep - processing is relatively stable. In the propane deep - processing aspect, demand increased month - on - month, and the operating rate returned to a high level, but the continuous loss of unit profit due to the significant increase in raw material prices and unchanged terminal demand structure has dampened the production enthusiasm of enterprises. [6][7] 3.4 Inventory - Last week, the LPG factory inventory was 18.17 million tons (-2.47%), and the port inventory was 309.72 million tons (3.96%). Refineries promoted sales by reducing prices this week, and shipments improved to varying degrees. Downstream buyers replenished at low prices, with stable market enthusiasm and a continuous decline in the storage capacity utilization rate. At ports, ships delayed by strong winds unloaded in a concentrated manner, resulting in a significant increase in imported resources. With a slight increase in chemical demand, downstream buyers maintained rigid procurement, and port inventories showed an accumulation trend. [7][8] 3.5 Basis and Position - The weekly average basis was - 3.00 yuan/ton in East China, 120.20 yuan/ton in South China, and - 5.80 yuan/ton in Shandong. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts was 4194, an increase of 383, and the lowest deliverable location was East China. [7][8] 3.6 Chemical Downstream - Operating Rate: PDH was 73.85%, MTBE was 56.50%, and alkylation was 44.30%. - Profit: The profit of PDH to produce propylene was - 580 yuan/ton, MTBE isomerization was - 128 yuan/ton, and alkylation in Shandong was - 453 yuan/ton. [7] 3.7 Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was 1.28 (2.18%), and the PG primary - secondary month spread was 80 yuan/ton (-29.20%). Affected by geopolitical factors, the oil prices rebounded significantly this week, and the PG - SC cracking spread narrowed. [7] 3.8 Other Factors - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee clarified the development goals and key tasks for the 15th Five - Year Plan period. - The China - US summit in Busan achieved positive progress, and the US made a series of commitments to suspend or cancel tariffs, export controls, and industrial investigations against China to ease bilateral economic and trade relations. - The military confrontation between the US and Venezuela intensified, and market news was constantly disturbing. - Europe and the US imposed sanctions on two Russian refineries, and India re - planned its energy procurement plan. [7]