智通财经APP获悉，根据达拉斯联邦储备银行在上周晚些时候发布的第三季度地区调查，美国油气行业高管们对于传统能源行业前景的悲观情绪正在上 升，其中许多高管对于重返白宫之后的特朗普政府的混乱贸易政策带来的阻碍以及监管准则频繁变化日益感到沮丧。 对于全线支持"特朗普MAGA主义"的北美油气行业，特朗普上台后并未像他所承诺的那样让"美国石油行业再次伟大"，按"产量"衡量，美国石油确实创了 新高;但按"景气度/盈利性/投资意愿"衡量，行业并没有呈现出特朗普所承诺的强劲扩张态势，且高管情绪偏冷。 MAGA，即"让美国再次伟大"(Make America Great Again)的英文简称，既能用来指代特朗普所领导的美国政府所有政策的核心基调，也被一些主流媒体用 来指代特朗普本人以及狂热支持特朗普的美国选民。 "让美国石油行业再次伟大"基本上等同于"高产+高景气+强投资"，当前更接近"高产、低温"——产量亮眼，但美国石油价格中枢与政策/关税/不确定性压着 资本开支与景气，综合来看，整个美国石油行业更像是"一边创量、一边内伤"，而不是"再次伟大"。 特朗普政府所主导的面向全球高额钢/铝关税上调(对于钢铁和铝关税高达50%)推 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of globalization from 1.0 to 3.0, highlighting the impact of MAGAism and the rise of protectionism, leading to a potential collapse of the current global trade system and the emergence of a new, more inclusive globalization model driven by digital technology and emerging economies [1][2][3]. Group 1: Globalization 1.0 - Globalization 1.0 was established post-World War II, primarily led by the United States, focusing on rebuilding economies through international cooperation and the establishment of organizations like the IMF and World Bank [7][8]. - The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) was signed in 1947, leading to a significant reduction in global tariff levels, with an average annual trade growth rate of 7.8% from 1950 to 1973 [7][8]. - The period was characterized by a division between capitalist and socialist blocs, resulting in a structured but not fully globalized trade system [9]. Group 2: Globalization 2.0 - Globalization 2.0 began after the Cold War, marked by the establishment of the WTO in 1995, which facilitated a true global economic integration, particularly between the U.S. and China [11][12]. - The period saw rapid trade liberalization, with global tariffs dropping from 6.2% in 1991 to 3.2% in 2006, and significant growth in international investment [12][13]. - The rise of emerging economies, particularly China and India, began to reshape the global economic landscape, contributing to a multi-polar world [15]. Group 3: MAGAism and Its Impact - MAGAism has led to a rise in protectionist policies in the U.S., which may provide short-term benefits to certain industries but could disrupt global supply chains and increase consumer costs in the long run [20][21]. - The political polarization in the U.S. has intensified, with MAGAism exacerbating divisions between different social and economic groups, impacting political stability and governance [21][22]. - The global implications of MAGAism include a decline in U.S. leadership in international affairs and a shift towards a more fragmented global trade environment [22][23]. Group 4: Transition to Globalization 3.0 - The article posits that the world is transitioning towards Globalization 3.0, characterized by a more inclusive and technology-driven economic model, despite the challenges posed by de-globalization and protectionism [26][27]. - Emerging economies are advocating for a more open and cooperative global economic system, as seen in initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative and RCEP [26]. - The future of globalization is seen as an inevitable trend, with the potential for a new economic order that is less dominated by major powers and more reliant on digital technologies [27].

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Trump and Musk, referred to as the "TM combination," initially appeared to promise a resurgence of American dominance but has since resulted in significant setbacks for both parties, particularly for Tesla and its sales performance [1][3]. Group 1: Tesla's Performance - Tesla reported a net income of $409 million for Q1, a 71% year-over-year decline, with automotive revenue down 20% and a reduction of 50,000 vehicles in deliveries [3]. - In February, Tesla's sales in China were 30,688 units, a 49.2% year-over-year decrease, while competitor BYD saw a 161.4% increase in deliveries, reaching 318,233 units [5]. - Tesla's sales in Europe dropped by 42.6% year-over-year, with fewer than 17,000 units sold in the EU, UK, and EFTA countries [5]. Group 2: Impact of Tariffs and Political Involvement - Trump's tariffs, signed in April 2025, imposed a 25% tax on imported vehicles and parts, significantly increasing Tesla's supply chain costs, particularly for components sourced from China [5][10]. - Musk's political involvement has led to criticism from investors, who urge him to focus on Tesla's management instead of political matters, as his controversial statements have diminished consumer trust [7][8]. Group 3: Trump’s Political Standing - Trump's approval ratings have plummeted to their lowest since returning to the White House, as he contemplates reducing tariffs on China by 50% to 65% [10]. - The backlash against Trump's policies, including government layoffs and budget cuts, has intensified opposition across various sectors in the U.S. [10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The partnership between Trump and Musk is characterized as a "short-term benefit exchange" with potential long-term risks, indicating that their collaboration may be nearing its end as both face significant challenges [12].