Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strategic role of commodities in hedging against inflation and diversifying risks in the context of increasing global macroeconomic uncertainty. It highlights the need for balanced asset allocation among stocks, bonds, and commodities, focusing on timing, selection, and position sizing [4][5]. Group 1: Timing and Economic Cycles - The Merrill Lynch Investment Clock is a classic framework for timing asset allocation, categorizing the economy into four phases: recovery, overheating, stagflation, and recession [6]. - Commodity performance varies across different economic cycles: during recovery, commodity prices remain low due to slow demand recovery; in overheating, strong demand leads to significant price increases; stagflation sees rising inflation with stagnant growth; and recession results in declining economic growth and rising bond prices [9][10]. - The relationship between risk assets and economic cycles indicates that stocks tend to lead economic changes, while commodities respond more synchronously or with a slight lag [11]. Group 2: Selection of Commodity Types - Commodities play a crucial role in combating inflation, as upstream raw material price fluctuations often exceed those of downstream products, providing a buffer against price increases [29]. - The article notes that inflation is often driven by significant price volatility in energy products, which can impact costs across various industries [30]. - Understanding the causes of inflation is essential: monetary phenomena can lead to nominal price increases, while supply-demand imbalances often result from constrained supply [32]. Group 3: Position Sizing and Risk Control - The volatility characteristics of stocks, bonds, and commodities differ, with commodities generally exhibiting higher volatility. In stable macro environments, these assets often move in different directions, allowing for risk mitigation through diversification [36]. - The article discusses the risks associated with inflationary changes, where rising inflation expectations can lead to a positive correlation between equity and commodity markets, complicating risk management strategies [39]. - It suggests that during periods of high volatility, conservative strategies may involve increasing bond allocations to stabilize the portfolio, while aggressive strategies might increase risk asset positions for higher returns [41]. Group 4: Reflection on Commodity Allocation - The article highlights the challenges of timing in the current economic environment, where traditional indicators may not accurately reflect the economic cycle due to structural changes [46]. - It points out that the demand for real estate-related commodities is being suppressed by high household leverage, and the economy is shifting towards a multi-faceted growth model driven by exports and consumption [48]. - The disparity in wealth distribution is noted as a factor that limits total demand for commodities, as lower-income households have less purchasing power compared to higher-income households [54][55].

今天 @DeAgentAI 又爆拉了三倍，观察到持仓总数量逐渐下降（慢慢被爆）但是持仓总价值在逐渐向上（一边爆一边驱动上涨）总体来说这一段的行为和 MMT 是有点像的，但是费率指标情况完全不一样。可以基本确定无论是正费率拉盘还是负费率拉盘，费率都无法成为参考指标了，因为总是会采用一个反套路的方式让你防不胜防刻舟求剑负费率到顶的人应该是有难了…Yuyue 🥊 (@yuyue_chris):发现 @DeAgentAI 在妖币里也算是发挥很稳定的了，每隔一阵就开始爆空每个热点都会试图在场，预言机、x402... 乃至可能的预测市场 ...

最近这些大项目里，MMT 是强庄爆空走出来的行情，效果非常恐怖，我也挨打了，但从二级表现来说没得说，很牛逼，认赌服输Kite 盘前给的时间略短 + 碰上大盘行情一般，本来市场整体对他的预期挺高，timing 影响太大从 MMT 和 Kite 两个币的表现情况来说，之前上盘前的广东链 @CantonNetwork 现在处在一个稳定的价格，或许有机会吃到一波溢出的情绪红利，接下来可以关注一些情绪的介入机会，动态博弈起来了基本面来说机构背景就不多说了，DRW 和 Tradeweb 投了 1.35 亿美金融资比较豪华，叙事是隐私赛道的金融操作系统公链，目前已经投入使用或正在试用的金融机构有瑞士证券交易所、德意志银行、高盛、摩根大通等等。其中任何一个拉出来给币圈项目做客户，都能撑起来一个项目，但是 Canton 有很多家。有 @Mumu_yay 等博主介绍过相关的链上 + 合约盘前差价套利机会在交易所来说广东链 CC 在币安等交易所已经上了。如果后续出更多公告，大概率会是一些交易节点（都是预期内了）。盘前利好多头，但正式 TGE 时间确定的话盘前的博弈逻辑就要转变了，都是 PVP 的动态博弈 ...

我也说了呀，mmt这种币安现货，一晚上合约拉20倍，历史上有没有的。但是如果你按照这种规律去套，那最后不就死了。就像3.12之前，btc当天跌30%，第二天是100%反弹，然后你按照这个规律，当天8300-5500，跌了35%你3倍杠杆做多。第二天跌到3200。你2倍杠杆都快没了。黑天鹅就是不可预见，套利只是为了赚点小钱。不是为了搏命。RaysunXBT (@geniusXie9589):@dotyyds1234 怎么识别庄盘和散步盘啊，这个mmt是看空投数量和筹码吗，判断很多筹码在项目方手里，以及看合约持仓量，md，前几天信誓旦旦和套利团队说没见过哪个币一夜能爆拉十倍的，只要我们十倍爆仓应该就问题不大，我想问龙王假如我们把报警装置做好比如设置拉到五倍的时候就电话叫醒，这种好吗，还是从根本上降 ...

刚才mmt 币安现货3.6。合约6。bybit 10。持续5分钟。合约这么大正溢价，除了黑天鹅，21年以后，我印象中币安是没有的。这次应该是10.11机构死绝了，活下来的风控也应该拉满了，这种新币，对于筹码不明确的，不会随便套价差。2025年，各种闻所未闻的事情。我也要更加小心谨慎了。 ...

Investment Thesis - Bitcoin is a buy recommendation [1] - Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) led to significant inequality, benefiting the wealthy through Quantitative Easing (QE) [1] - The current financial system is unsustainable due to interest rates exceeding revenue, implying continuous Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and increasing debt [1] - SP500/M2 ratio indicates inflation, leading to a decline in purchasing power over time [1]

RT Mel Mattison (@MelMattison1)I want to be clear. I am not some DJT lover who thinks he's the best thing since sliced-bread. Did I vote for him? Yes, but primarily because I could not see a reason to support Kamala, not b/c of some great love for Trump.What I do believe, is that he is getting very sophisticated, MMT-based, even ground-breaking economic advice behind the scenes, then parsing it out to his MAGA base in language he thinks most appropriate.Traditional finance folks are misreading it, trying to ...

认识明明博士多年，去年 3季度受他的邀请，为其新书 《债务周期与交易策略》作书评 。 受邀后恰逢市场比 较极端的阶段，作为一名基金经理，我的精力都放在研究思考市场和基金交易 上， 直到去年年底才认真读完全书 完成书评，晚交了作业，错过了出版社付印的时间。对此，我 很是抱愧。 感谢 明 明博士依然将这篇迟到的没能印到书中的书评 放在其公众号上， 供大家参考。 并向大家一并推荐明明博士的公众号。 明明博士早年在央行货政司工作，又曾作为首席固定收益分析师长期深入研究债券市场，现在是中 信证券的首席经济学家。是市场上少有的既有监管视角，又深度了解微观市场结构，有实战视角的 经学家。我一直关注明明博士的研究，总是能得到很多启发。例如 本书对于财政货币结合和 地方 债务的讨论，是非常深刻的。 《债务周期与交易策略》获选 长安街读书会第20240108期干部学习新书书单 长安街读书会是在中央老同志的鼓励支持下发起成立，践行全民阅读。为中华之崛起而读书、 学习、养才、报国。现有千余位成员主要来自长安街附近中央和国家机关各部委中青年干部、 中共中央党校（国家行政学院）学员、全国党代表、全国两会代表委员等喜文好书之士以及党 中央 ...