1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Liquidity in January 2026 - The yield of the active 10 - year Treasury bond rose 0.05bp to 1.8355% from 1.835% last Friday. The yield fluctuated during the week due to various factors such as LPR expectations, government bond issuance concerns, and policy news [1][11]. - Five factors affect the super - reserve ratio. In January 2026, foreign exchange funds are expected to decrease by about 63 billion yuan; the central bank is expected to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity through various means and there is a possibility of a reserve requirement ratio cut; fiscal deposits are expected to increase by about 62 billion yuan; M0 is expected to increase by about 78 billion yuan; and required deposit reserves are expected to increase by about 50 billion yuan. The liquidity gap is about 190 billion yuan, which can be adjusted through open - market operations and reserve requirement ratio cuts [15][16][21]. - In the bond market, institutions may pay more attention to institutional behavior. It is expected that the allocation power of banks and insurance will strengthen at the beginning of next year, and interest rates may decline [21]. 2.2 US Economic Data and Fed Policy - Spot gold prices exceeded $4,500 per ounce, and it is expected to continue to play an important role in different asset portfolios. The RMB - US dollar exchange rate once exceeded 7. The long - term RMB value is systematically undervalued, but in the medium - term, the role of macro - policies in the transition from exogenous to endogenous growth needs to be considered [22][23]. - US economic data shows that inflation pressure is easing, economic expansion momentum is weakening, the labor market is stable, and the Fed is in a "data - dependent" mode. It is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in the short term, but if economic data weakens, it may resume gradual interest rate cuts from January to April [23][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Views 3.1.1 Liquidity in January 2026 - **Weekly review**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond fluctuated during the week. The reasons included LPR non - adjustment, concerns about government bond issuance, and policy news [12]. - **Weekly thinking**: Analyze the five factors affecting the super - reserve ratio and predict the liquidity situation in January 2026. The overall liquidity gap is about 190 billion yuan, and the central bank may use various means to maintain liquidity [15][16][21]. 3.1.2 US Economic Data and Fed Policy - **Gold and exchange rate**: Gold prices are expected to continue to rise. The RMB - US dollar exchange rate is affected by fiscal deficit and fiscal monetization [22][23]. - **US economic data**: The December PMI initial values were lower than expected, the November CPI and core CPI were lower than expected, the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, and the labor participation rate was stable. The Fed's policy is focused on "liquidity guarantee and prudent policy balance" [23][24][26]. 3.2 Domestic and Overseas Data Summaries 3.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - **Open - market operations**: From December 22 - 26, 2025, the central bank's open - market operations had a net investment of 6.52 billion yuan [38]. - **Interest rates**: Various interest rates such as money market rates, bond yields, and futures prices are presented in figures and tables, showing their trends and changes [39][40][42] 3.2.2 Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking - **Commodity prices**: Steel prices declined, and LME non - ferrous metal futures prices increased. The prices of other commodities such as coal, oil, and vegetables also had corresponding changes [59][61]. - **Financial market data**: Data on various financial market indicators such as stock indices, bond yields, and exchange rates in the US and other countries are presented [71][73][76] 3.3 Local Bond One - Week Review 3.3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 6 local bonds were issued with an amount of 2.037 billion yuan, a repayment of 5.211 billion yuan, and a net financing of - 3.174 billion yuan. The bonds were mainly issued by Shenzhen, Hunan, and Inner Mongolia [85][87]. - No local special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts were issued this week. Since January 1, 2025, a total of 2.199521 trillion yuan of such bonds have been issued [90]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market Overview - The local bond stock was 54.6 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 362.073 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.66%. The top three active trading provinces were Guangdong, Xinjiang, and Jiangsu, and the top three active trading terms were 30Y, 10Y, and 15Y [101]. 3.3.3 This Month's Local Bond Issuance Plan The issuance plan of Beijing from December 29, 2025, to January 2, 2026, is presented in a figure [106]. 3.4 Credit Bond Market One - Week Review 3.4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 211 credit bonds were issued with a total issuance of 254.432 billion yuan, a total repayment of 213.649 billion yuan, and a net financing of 40.783 billion yuan, which decreased by 16.672 billion yuan compared with last week [108]. - Specifically, the net financing of urban investment bonds was - 261 million yuan, and that of industrial bonds was 4.1044 billion yuan. By bond type, short - term financing had a net financing of - 4.4152 billion yuan, medium - term notes had 8.0004 billion yuan, enterprise bonds had - 719 million yuan, corporate bonds had 1.5045 billion yuan, and private placement notes had - 292 million yuan [109][112]. 3.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates The actual issuance interest rates and their changes of various bond types such as short - term financing, medium - term notes, and corporate bonds are presented in a table [119]. 3.4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview The trading volume data of credit bonds in different ratings and types are presented in a table, with a total trading volume of 626.442 billion yuan [120]. 3.4.4 Yield to Maturity The yield to maturity and its changes of various bonds such as government - backed development bonds, short - term financing, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds are presented in tables [120][121][122] 3.4.5 Credit Spreads The credit spreads of short - term financing, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds showed a differentiated trend, and their changes are presented in tables and figures [124][125][128] 3.4.6 Rating Spreads The rating spreads of short - term financing, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds generally widened, and their changes are presented in tables and figures [135][137][139] 3.4.7 Trading Activity The top five most actively traded bonds of each type are presented in a table, and the industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds [143][144] 3.4.8 Issuer Rating Changes The issuer rating or outlook improvement information of two companies, Wenzhou Transportation Development Group Co., Ltd. and Guangxi Energy Group Co., Ltd., is presented in a table [146]

过去的黄金你爱搭不理，现在的黄金你高攀不起！这到底是怎么回事？ 就在12月22日，黄金走出"疯狂星期一"！现货黄金单日涨幅接近1.5%，成功站上4400美元/ 盎司，创下历史新高。12月23日，现货黄金成功触及4500美元/盎司。今年以来，黄金价格 已经飙升超过67%。与此同时，现货白银、铂金等贵金属也持续走强，部分品种的累计涨幅 甚至突破了100%！ 从去年到现在，黄金的表现可谓势不可挡。即便前期涨幅已经很高，它依然能再创新高，这 也再次印证了投资市场的一句老话——涨不言顶。那么，黄金为何如此强势？我们来拆解一 下背后的四大动因。 第一，美元走弱是直接推手。 黄金和美元有着天然的反向关系。眼下美元正处于降息周 期，贬值压力加大，黄金上涨几乎成了必然。 第二，美联储降息预期持续存在。 市场普遍预计，明年美元仍有降息空间。 第三，抗通胀与保值功能被重新重视。 无论是美国还是欧洲，财政收支失衡的问题都很突 出。市场担心这种失衡会引发长期通胀，也就是所谓的"财政货币化"。在这种情况下，黄金 的保值属性就成了投资者的首选。 出品｜ 21财经客户端 财经早察工作室 总统筹｜陈晨星 执行统筹｜ 祝乃娟 监制｜洪晓文 曾婷 ...

过去的黄金你爱搭不理，现在的黄金你高攀不起！这到底是怎么回事？就在12月22日，黄金走出"疯狂 星期一"！现货黄金单日涨幅接近1.5%，成功站上4400美元/盎司，创下历史新高。12月23日，现货黄金 成功触及4500美元/盎司。今年以来，黄金价格已经飙升超过67%。与此同时，现货白银、铂金等贵金 属也持续走强，部分品种的累计涨幅甚至突破了100%！ 从去年到现在，黄金的表现可谓势不可挡。即便前期涨幅已经很高，它依然能再创新高，这也再次印证 了投资市场的一句老话——涨不言顶。那么，黄金为何如此强势？我们来拆解一下背后的四大动因。 出品：财经早察工作室 总统筹：陈晨星 执行统筹：祝乃娟 主播：胡光旗 审校：强燕 第一，美元走弱是直接推手。黄金和美元有着天然的反向关系。眼下美元正处于降息周期，贬值压力加 大，黄金上涨几乎成了必然。第二，美联储降息预期持续存在。市场普遍预计，明年美元仍有降息空 间。第三，抗通胀与保值功能被重新重视。无论是美国还是欧洲，财政收支失衡的问题都很突出。市场 担心这种失衡会引发长期通胀，也就是所谓的"财政货币化"。在这种情况下，黄金的保值属性就成了投 资者的首选。第四，国际地缘政治局势紧张 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, reaching a historical high of $4,490 per ounce, is attributed to a combination of geopolitical tensions, monetary easing expectations, and a structural shift in gold investment paradigms, indicating a significant revaluation of gold's worth over decades [1][3][24]. Geopolitical Tensions - The rise in gold prices is closely linked to escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, and the situation in Venezuela, where U.S. military actions have raised concerns about energy security and potential market disruptions [4][5][6]. - Ongoing conflicts, such as the Russia-Ukraine war, contribute to persistent geopolitical risks, increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [7]. Monetary Easing - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by expectations of interest rate cuts and a weakening dollar, with U.S. inflation rates declining and unemployment rates remaining relatively high [8][9]. - The transition of U.S. monetary policy from tightening to easing is seen as a key driver of the current gold bull market, supported by falling inflation and rising concerns over the long-term purchasing power of fiat currencies [10][11]. Central Bank Gold Purchases - Central banks have significantly increased their gold purchases, with global central banks net buying gold for 14 consecutive quarters, reflecting a structural demand for gold as a strategic asset [12][13]. - The recent data shows that China's gold reserves have increased, and global gold ETF inflows have reached record levels, indicating strong institutional interest in gold [15][12]. New Investment Paradigm - The investment landscape for gold is shifting, with a growing recognition of its role as a hedge against extreme monetary and geopolitical risks, moving from a cyclical to a strategic asset [19][20][22]. - Major financial institutions have raised their long-term gold price forecasts, reflecting a broader market re-evaluation of gold's value in the context of global debt and currency dynamics [23]. Conclusion - The current gold market dynamics are driven by a confluence of factors including concerns over monetary credit, strategic central bank allocations, the onset of a rate-cutting cycle, and geopolitical conflicts, indicating profound changes in the global macroeconomic and financial landscape [24][25].

极目新闻记者 吕少峰 两岸猿声啼不住，轻舟已过万重山。12月22日，国际金银价格齐创历史新高，再次迎来年内的"高光时 刻"。同花顺数据显示，截至发稿时，现货黄金报4412.62美元/盎司，日内涨1.33%，最高触及4420.470 美元/盎司，创历史新高，年内累计上涨68%。白银也不甘落后，伦敦银现报69.44元/盎司，日内涨幅达 2.47%，亦创新高，年内累计上涨超139%。 国际金银价格创历史新高，贵金属市场的火热行情迅速传导至A股市场，国内贵金属指数板块同步走 强。个股方面，白银有色、湖南矿业涨停，晓程科技、湖南白银涨超7%，贵研铂业涨超6%，西部黄 金、盛达资源涨幅均超5%，山东黄金、紫金矿业、中金黄金、四川黄金、赤峰黄金、招金黄金等贵金 属企业个股亦纷纷跟涨。 | 黄金概念(81) | | | 张幅%↓ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 白银有色 | | | R 10.04 | | 2 | 海南矿业 | R | 9.97 | | 3 | 晓程科技 | R | 7.42 | | 4 | 湖南日银 | R | 7.20 | | 5 | 贵研铂业 | R | 6.51 | | ...

两岸猿声啼不住，轻舟已过万重山。12月22日，国际金银价格齐创历史新高，再次迎来年内的"高光时 刻"。同花顺数据显示，截至发稿时，现货黄金报4412.62美元/盎司，日内涨1.33%，最高触及4420.470 美元/盎司，创历史新高，年内累计上涨68%。白银也不甘落后，伦敦银现报69.44元/盎司，日内涨幅达 2.47%，亦创新高，年内累计上涨超139%。 国际金银现货走势 国际金银价格创历史新高，贵金属市场的火热行情迅速传导至A股市场，国内贵金属指数板块同步走 强。个股方面，白银有色、湖南矿业涨停，晓程科技、湖南白银涨超7%，贵研铂业涨超6%，西部黄 金、盛达资源涨幅均超5%，山东黄金、紫金矿业、中金黄金、四川黄金、赤峰黄金、招金黄金等贵金 属企业个股亦纷纷跟涨。 极目新闻记者 吕少峰 港股贵金属部分个股表现 武汉科技大学证券研究所所长王伟接受极目新闻记者采访时表示，从去年到现在，黄金的强势表现令人 印象深刻，在前期涨幅已经很高的情况下，如今还能再创新高，真是印证了投资市场"涨不言顶"的真 谛。王伟所长分析说，黄金走势如此强势，我们既要从黄金与生俱来的避险属性进行解读，也要结合当 前资本市场和国际局势予以观 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is not tightening but rather transitioning to a new phase of liquidity injection, having previously implemented a broad and unfocused approach [1] - The Fed's initial response to the stock market's continuous circuit breakers included a combination of zero interest rates, quantitative easing, and a $2 trillion fiscal stimulus, which did not yield the expected results [1][2] - The presence of the Volcker Rule has led banks to withdraw liquidity instead of providing loans, creating a situation where businesses in need of funds struggle to obtain loans from banks [1][2] Group 2 - The Fed's liquidity injection strategy consists of two parts: rescuing the market and supporting businesses, utilizing over nine tools to achieve liquidity distribution [4] - Despite the Fed's efforts, a significant portion of the released liquidity remains trapped within the financial system, prompting a reduction in the scale of quantitative easing [4] - The Fed has acquired a substantial amount of corporate and government bonds, managing to temporarily suppress risk, but the proportion of high-risk bonds is increasing, indicating a precarious situation [4]

认识明明博士多年，去年 3季度受他的邀请，为其新书 《债务周期与交易策略》作书评 。 受邀后恰逢市场比 较极端的阶段，作为一名基金经理，我的精力都放在研究思考市场和基金交易 上， 直到去年年底才认真读完全书 完成书评，晚交了作业，错过了出版社付印的时间。对此，我 很是抱愧。 感谢 明 明博士依然将这篇迟到的没能印到书中的书评 放在其公众号上， 供大家参考。 并向大家一并推荐明明博士的公众号。 明明博士早年在央行货政司工作，又曾作为首席固定收益分析师长期深入研究债券市场，现在是中 信证券的首席经济学家。是市场上少有的既有监管视角，又深度了解微观市场结构，有实战视角的 经学家。我一直关注明明博士的研究，总是能得到很多启发。例如 本书对于财政货币结合和 地方 债务的讨论，是非常深刻的。 《债务周期与交易策略》获选 长安街读书会第20240108期干部学习新书书单 长安街读书会是在中央老同志的鼓励支持下发起成立，践行全民阅读。为中华之崛起而读书、 学习、养才、报国。现有千余位成员主要来自长安街附近中央和国家机关各部委中青年干部、 中共中央党校（国家行政学院）学员、全国党代表、全国两会代表委员等喜文好书之士以及党 中央 ...