2025年行情即将接近尾声。整体来看，2025年我国资本市场走出一轮慢牛长牛走势，主要股指一度突破4000点关口。然而，市场呈现出结构严重分化的特 征，与科技板块表现突出，把握住这两大方向的投资者获得了较好回报，其他投资者则收益相对有限。这也导致出现一种特殊现象：尽管大盘已站上4000 点，许多投资者仍不认同这是一轮牛市。 | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 北证5C | | --- | --- | --- | | 3917.36 | 13332.73 | 1449.2 | | +26.92 +0.69% +192.52 +1.47% +3.45 +0 | | | | 科创20 | 创业板指 | 万得全/ | | 1335.25 | 3191.98 | 6319.0 | | +26.66 +2.04% +69.75 +2.23% +61.49 +0 | | | | 沪深300 | 中证500 | 中证A5( | | 4611.62 | 7255.66 | 5580.2 | | +43.45 +0.95% +86.11 +1.20% +64.11 +1 | | | | 中证1000 | 中证2000 | 中证红和 ...

2025年行情即将接近尾声。整体来看，2025年我国资本市场走出一轮慢牛长牛走势，主要股指一度突破 4000点关口。然而，市场呈现出结构严重分化的特征，银行与科技板块表现突出，把握住这两大方向的 投资者获得了较好回报，其他投资者则收益相对有限。这也导致出现一种特殊现象：尽管大盘已站上 4000点，许多投资者仍不认同这是一轮牛市。 年底阶段，部分资金选择获利了结，市场出现一定调整。目前调整已接近尾声，布局2026年的资金逐步 入场，市场呈现反复震荡格局。当前正是布局2026年行情、尤其是一季度春季攻势的较好时机。 展望2026年，宏观经济有望实现一定复苏，稳增长政策将进一步加码。中央经济工作会议已对2026年经 济工作作出具体部署，将实施更加积极有为的宏观政策以稳定经济增长，并采取有效措施推动房地产市 场止跌回稳。这有助于提振投资者信心、稳定消费增速。提振内需是当前重要的政策方向，通过扩大内 需稳住经济增长，也为慢牛长牛行情奠定基础。 2026年物价预计将有所回暖，CPI有望逐步回升至2%左右的目标区间；PPI则在反内卷、去产能政策推 动下有望由负转正。这将进一步增强市场信心。 提升内需需要提高居民收入水平。目 ...

Core Insights - The A-share market has seen effective "barbell" asset allocation strategies, focusing on both dividend-yielding assets and high-growth assets, largely influenced by changes in China's macroeconomic environment [1] Economic Environment and Asset Allocation - The economic cycle can be analyzed using the "Merrill Lynch Investment Clock," which links economic growth and inflation to asset allocation choices, suggesting that in a rising GDP and CPI environment, commodities outperform stocks, cash, and bonds, while in a declining GDP and CPI environment, bonds outperform cash, stocks, and commodities [2] - The performance of core assets in the A-share market has significantly declined over the past two years, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) showing a notable drop from a high of 13.5% in October 2021 to -1.3% in October 2022, remaining negative for 37 consecutive months [2] Industry Performance - From October 2021 to October 2025, the communication sector has increased by 149.5%, while the media sector has risen by 35.8%. In contrast, the beauty and personal care sector has decreased by 41.8%, and the food and beverage sector has fallen by 32.6% [2] - Recent data indicates that the PPI turned positive at 0.1% in October 2025, leading to noticeable increases in the chemical and food and beverage sectors [3] Investment Strategies - The importance of top-down analysis in investment decisions is increasing, as global macroeconomic changes and the growth of passive, style, and quantitative funds amplify this impact [4] - The combination of top-down and bottom-up approaches in investment practices is emphasized for a more comprehensive strategy [4] Future Considerations - The ongoing negative PPI trend necessitates close monitoring of potential changes and their implications for asset allocation strategies, particularly regarding the performance of "middle assets" over the next two years [5] - The complexity of macroeconomic operations suggests that factors such as confidence and expectations play significant roles, with "anti-involution" being identified as a potential positive trigger for changes in the domestic PPI [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strategic role of commodities in hedging against inflation and diversifying risks in the context of increasing global macroeconomic uncertainty. It highlights the need for balanced asset allocation among stocks, bonds, and commodities, focusing on timing, selection, and position sizing [4][5]. Group 1: Timing and Economic Cycles - The Merrill Lynch Investment Clock is a classic framework for timing asset allocation, categorizing the economy into four phases: recovery, overheating, stagflation, and recession [6]. - Commodity performance varies across different economic cycles: during recovery, commodity prices remain low due to slow demand recovery; in overheating, strong demand leads to significant price increases; stagflation sees rising inflation with stagnant growth; and recession results in declining economic growth and rising bond prices [9][10]. - The relationship between risk assets and economic cycles indicates that stocks tend to lead economic changes, while commodities respond more synchronously or with a slight lag [11]. Group 2: Selection of Commodity Types - Commodities play a crucial role in combating inflation, as upstream raw material price fluctuations often exceed those of downstream products, providing a buffer against price increases [29]. - The article notes that inflation is often driven by significant price volatility in energy products, which can impact costs across various industries [30]. - Understanding the causes of inflation is essential: monetary phenomena can lead to nominal price increases, while supply-demand imbalances often result from constrained supply [32]. Group 3: Position Sizing and Risk Control - The volatility characteristics of stocks, bonds, and commodities differ, with commodities generally exhibiting higher volatility. In stable macro environments, these assets often move in different directions, allowing for risk mitigation through diversification [36]. - The article discusses the risks associated with inflationary changes, where rising inflation expectations can lead to a positive correlation between equity and commodity markets, complicating risk management strategies [39]. - It suggests that during periods of high volatility, conservative strategies may involve increasing bond allocations to stabilize the portfolio, while aggressive strategies might increase risk asset positions for higher returns [41]. Group 4: Reflection on Commodity Allocation - The article highlights the challenges of timing in the current economic environment, where traditional indicators may not accurately reflect the economic cycle due to structural changes [46]. - It points out that the demand for real estate-related commodities is being suppressed by high household leverage, and the economy is shifting towards a multi-faceted growth model driven by exports and consumption [48]. - The disparity in wealth distribution is noted as a factor that limits total demand for commodities, as lower-income households have less purchasing power compared to higher-income households [54][55].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involvement - The discussion primarily revolves around the **Chinese economy** and its **capital markets**, with a focus on the implications of the "anti-involution" policy and macroeconomic trends. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Anti-Involution as a Core Task**: The Chinese economic decision-making body has established "anti-involution" as a core task to end the downward price spiral and address corporate profit pressures and macro risks, indicating a more complex environment than a decade ago [2][4][6] 2. **Economic Transition**: The Merrill Lynch investment clock suggests that the Chinese economy may be transitioning from a deflationary quadrant, with a critical time window expected in the second half of 2025, as capital begins to anticipate future conditions and extend asset durations [2][5] 3. **Debt Levels**: Urban household debt in China is nearing 70%, significantly higher than a decade ago, necessitating stronger demand-side support for the anti-involution measures, potentially requiring unconventional counter-cyclical policies [2][10] 4. **Manufacturing Dominance**: The "Made in China 2025" initiative has largely been achieved, positioning China's industrial and manufacturing sectors with global dominance, which provides a strong governance foundation for the success of anti-involution policies [2][11] 5. **US-China Relations**: The strategic rivalry between the US and China has prompted the introduction of anti-involution policies to adapt to changes in the global economic landscape and to rebalance domestic policies with a focus on development and livelihood [2][12][14] Important but Overlooked Content 1. **Market Reactions**: Recent market trends indicate a significant shift, with the Shanghai Composite Index potentially breaking the 4,000-point mark, driven by the performance of cyclical assets [2][26] 2. **Investment Strategy**: Investors are advised to recognize market turning points, as the expansion window for deflationary assets is closing, and cyclical assets are expected to benefit significantly [23][25] 3. **Future Planning**: The upcoming 14th Five-Year Plan will focus on data assetization, establishing a circular economy, and utilizing blockchain technology for data capitalization, which are crucial for China's economic strategy [27][28][30] 4. **Technological Advancements**: China has made significant breakthroughs in recycling technologies and solid-state battery production, which could enhance its competitive edge in the global market [30][31] 5. **Demand-Side Policies**: Future effective demand-side policies may stem from income distribution adjustments and the digital economy, aiming to boost consumption and support the middle class [32] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and implications discussed in the conference call, highlighting the evolving landscape of the Chinese economy and its capital markets.

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The Chinese economy is at a sensitive point in the Merrill Lynch investment clock, likely transitioning away from deflation in the second half of the year, which could lead to a significant rise in the A-share market [1] - The expectation is that the A-share index could surpass 4000 points if price effects materialize, driven by strong momentum in cyclical assets [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The first key industry trend is RDA logic, focusing on data assetization through blockchain technology, which is essential for ensuring the security and legality of data assets in the AI economy [2] - The second trend is the circular economy, which aims to address China's energy bottlenecks through technological innovation, particularly in converting waste plastics into alternative energy products [2] - The third trend is the industrialization of solid-state batteries, which is crucial for China's leadership in low-altitude economy and robotics, with expectations for large-scale commercialization in the next two years [3] Group 3: Global Economic Context - The U.S. faces significant risks with the dollar and treasury bond system, which may lead to a reliance on blockchain and stablecoins as a form of self-redemption [3] - The ongoing G2 strategic competition suggests that the current gold bull market could last longer and see greater gains than any previous cycle, making gold a favorable long-term investment [4]

Core Viewpoint - Multiple positive factors are converging, indicating a significant turning point for the Chinese economy, with clear policy focus and an optimistic outlook for the A-share market [1][3]. Economic Turning Point - China is at a critical time window in the economic cycle, transitioning from a prolonged price decline phase [3][4]. - Recent stock market performance reflects a shift in market expectations, driven by the "anti-involution" policy and a potentially easing international environment [3][5]. A-share Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to rise above 4000 points, contingent on the effectiveness of the "anti-involution" policy [4][6]. - The "anti-involution" policy aims to end the long-term downward price spiral, requiring coordinated efforts from both supply and demand sides [5][6]. Sector Focus - The "pro-cyclical" sectors are anticipated to benefit significantly from the economic recovery, with a strong correlation to overall economic conditions [6][7]. - Three key investment directions are highlighted: 1. Real Data Assets (RDA) - The importance of converting vast data resources into valuable assets is emphasized, with expectations for national support in this area [7]. 2. Circular Economy - Technological innovations to overcome energy bottlenecks, such as converting waste plastics into petrochemical products, are crucial [7]. 3. Solid-State Battery Industrialization - The potential for large-scale commercialization of solid-state batteries in the next couple of years is noted, which could enhance China's position in various industries [7]. Market Confidence - The long-term trajectory of the Chinese capital market will largely depend on investor confidence, rooted in trust in the current system and governance capabilities [8]. - There is a strong belief that the Chinese capital market can achieve a sustained upward trend over the long term [8].

Group 1 - The current macroeconomic situation in China is described as being in a "delicate" time window, with the economy having been in the "deflation" quadrant for over three years [1] - The PTA index, which measures industrial prices, has been negative for 34 months, with the latest reading at -3.7, indicating ongoing industrial deflation pressure [1] - The A-share market is perceived as a leading indicator, showing signs of a potential shift in policy direction and macro trends, with expectations of a turning point in the second half of the year [1] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" policy is highlighted as a key political intention, with the Central Political Bureau meeting expected to clarify details by the end of the month [2] - There is a high level of policy execution capability and market trust, suggesting that if resources are directed towards development rather than solely focusing on safety, it could alleviate deflationary pressures and introduce new structural variables to the capital market [2]