建议在"十五五"期间，中央额外发行约10万亿元的"新型城镇化特别国债"，以每年2万亿元左右的节奏投入，直接下达到县级政府。——李稻 葵 2025年11月13日，"中国新型城镇化理论·政策·实践论坛2025"在清华大学举办，胡祖才、江小涓、范恒山、李稻葵、魏后凯等多位专家学者参会，共同探 讨"十五五"时期中国城镇化发展图景。 以下为李稻葵在论坛上发表的主旨演讲精编。 清华大学中国经济思想与实践研究院院长李稻葵指出，"十五五"的核心任务之一是促进和扩大内需，以确保经济增长率不仅得以维持，更能逐步恢复到合 理水平，这一任务的紧迫性超出了一般预期。 在扩大内需的诸多抓手中，新型城镇化被视为最重要的发力点之一。"要大幅提升全国的消费和投资需求，必须让尚未城镇化的7亿人口逐步融入现代经济 生活，通过提高他们的城镇化水平来释放巨大的消费潜能。" 应当恢复到约7%左右" 从经济学家角度来看，"十五五"规划时期国家需要着力完成两项核心任务。 第一，在日益激烈的国际竞争中占据战略制高点，实现高水平科技自立自强。这意味着必须把科技创新置于优先位置，推动科技、人才、教育"三位一 体"的协同融合发展。 第二，要促进和扩大内需，以确保经 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Shenghong Co., Ltd. has conducted an investor survey, highlighting its revenue composition and market focus [1] - As of the latest report, Shenghong Co., Ltd. has a market capitalization of 14.6 billion yuan [2] - The revenue composition for Shenghong Co., Ltd. in 2024 is as follows: 78.02% from the new energy sector, 19.86% from smart grid, and 2.12% from other businesses [1]

Key Points - In October, China's manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced an additional 200 billion yuan in special bond quotas to support investment construction in certain provinces [2] - The China Iron and Steel Association indicated that the new supply-demand balance in the steel market is not yet solid, and self-discipline needs to be strengthened in the fourth quarter [3] Domestic News - The Ministry of Commerce highlighted the inclusion of trade and environment provisions in free trade agreements, such as the recently signed China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 upgrade, which prioritizes green trade [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the manufacturing PMI for October was influenced by pre-holiday demand release and complex international conditions [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology noted rapid growth in China's electronic information manufacturing, with smartphone production reaching 881 million units, a 1% year-on-year increase [1] International News - The U.S. Senate voted to cancel the "national emergency" invoked by President Trump for global tariffs [4] - U.S. Treasury Secretary criticized the Federal Reserve's recent monetary policy decisions, calling for a thorough reform of its mechanisms [4] - Tokyo's core CPI rose by 2.8% year-on-year in October, exceeding the Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target, maintaining expectations for short-term interest rate hikes [4] Economic Data and Market Overview - The Eurozone economy showed a slight growth of 0.2% in Q3, slightly above market expectations, but significant downside risks remain [5] - The latest market indices showed declines across major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.81% [5]

Group 1 - In the first nine months of 2023, China issued a total of 43,615 billion yuan in new local government bonds, comprising 6,758 billion yuan in general bonds and 36,857 billion yuan in special bonds [1] - The average issuance term for local government bonds was 15.6 years, with general bonds averaging 8.8 years and special bonds averaging 17.8 years; the average interest rate was 1.95%, with general bonds at 1.79% and special bonds at 1.99% [1] - In September 2023, a total of 4,741 billion yuan in new bonds were issued, including 550 billion yuan in general bonds and 4,191 billion yuan in special bonds, with an average issuance term of 16.8 years and an average interest rate of 2.18% [1] Group 2 - As of September 2025, the total local government debt balance was 536,995 billion yuan, with general debt at 173,119 billion yuan and special debt at 363,876 billion yuan [2] - The remaining average term for local government bonds was 10.5 years, with general bonds at 6.2 years and special bonds at 12.5 years; the average interest rate was 2.86%, with general bonds at 2.92% and special bonds at 2.83% [2] - The national local government debt limit for 2025 was set at 579,874.3 billion yuan, with general debt limit at 180,689.22 billion yuan and special debt limit at 399,185.08 billion yuan [2]

National Local Government Bond Issuance - In September 2025, a total of 474.1 billion yuan in new bonds were issued, including 55 billion yuan in general bonds and 419.1 billion yuan in special bonds [3] - The total issuance of refinancing bonds reached 387.8 billion yuan, comprising 171 billion yuan in general bonds and 216.8 billion yuan in special bonds, leading to a combined total of 861.9 billion yuan in local government bonds for the month [3] - The average issuance term for local government bonds in September was 16.8 years, with general bonds averaging 8.4 years and special bonds averaging 19.8 years [4] Average Issuance Rate - The average issuance interest rate for local government bonds in September was 2.18%, with general bonds at 2.01% and special bonds at 2.25% [5] Year-to-Date Issuance (January to September 2025) - From January to September 2025, a total of 4,361.5 billion yuan in new local government bonds were issued, including 675.8 billion yuan in general bonds and 3,685.7 billion yuan in special bonds [6] - The total refinancing bonds issued during this period amounted to 41,842 billion yuan, with general bonds at 13,799 billion yuan and special bonds at 28,043 billion yuan, resulting in a cumulative total of 85,457 billion yuan in local government bonds [6] - The average issuance term for local government bonds from January to September was 15.6 years, with general bonds averaging 8.8 years and special bonds averaging 17.8 years [7] Average Interest Rate Year-to-Date - The average interest rate for local government bonds from January to September was 1.95%, with general bonds at 1.79% and special bonds at 1.99% [8] Principal Repayment and Interest Payments - From January to September 2025, local government bonds had a principal repayment of 23,863 billion yuan, with refinancing bonds accounting for 20,527 billion yuan and other fiscal arrangements for 3,336 billion yuan [9] - In September alone, the principal repayment amounted to 4,108 billion yuan, while interest payments for local government bonds totaled 11,191 billion yuan for the year-to-date, with September's interest payments at 1,328 billion yuan [10] Local Government Debt Balance - As of the end of September 2025, the total local government debt balance was 536,995 billion yuan, with general debt at 173,119 billion yuan and special debt at 363,876 billion yuan [11] - The total government bonds stood at 535,360 billion yuan, with non-government bond forms of government debt at 1,635 billion yuan [11] - The average remaining term for local government bonds was 10.5 years, with general bonds at 6.2 years and special bonds at 12.5 years, and the average interest rate was 2.86%, with general bonds at 2.92% and special bonds at 2.83% [11]

Group 1: National Local Government Bond Issuance - In September 2025, a total of 4,741 billion yuan in new bonds were issued, comprising 550 billion yuan in general bonds and 4,191 billion yuan in special bonds [2] - The total refinancing bonds issued amounted to 3,878 billion yuan, with 1,710 billion yuan in general bonds and 2,168 billion yuan in special bonds, leading to a combined total of 8,619 billion yuan in local government bonds issued [2] - The average issuance term for local government bonds in September 2025 was 16.8 years, with general bonds averaging 8.4 years and special bonds averaging 19.8 years [2] Group 2: Year-to-Date Bond Issuance - From January to September 2025, a total of 43,615 billion yuan in new local government bonds were issued, including 6,758 billion yuan in general bonds and 36,857 billion yuan in special bonds [3] - The total refinancing bonds issued during this period reached 41,842 billion yuan, with 13,799 billion yuan in general bonds and 28,043 billion yuan in special bonds, resulting in an overall issuance of 85,457 billion yuan in local government bonds [3] Group 3: Debt Repayment and Interest Payments - In the first nine months of 2025, local government bonds had a principal repayment of 23,863 billion yuan, with 20,527 billion yuan from refinancing bonds and 3,336 billion yuan from other fiscal arrangements [5] - Interest payments for local government bonds totaled 11,191 billion yuan from January to September 2025, with 1,328 billion yuan paid in September alone [6] Group 4: Local Government Debt Balance - As of the end of September 2025, the total local government debt balance was 536,995 billion yuan, with 173,119 billion yuan in general debt and 363,876 billion yuan in special debt [7] - The average remaining term for local government bonds was 10.5 years, with general bonds averaging 6.2 years and special bonds averaging 12.5 years, and the average interest rate was 2.86% [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of fiscal policy during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, advocating for proactive measures to support economic growth and address challenges, with a target GDP growth rate of approximately 4.7% to achieve the 2035 doubling goal [4][5]. Fiscal Policy Role - Fiscal policy is expected to play a crucial role in the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, with a focus on maintaining a high budget deficit to stimulate economic growth [4][5]. - The suggested budget deficit rate for 2026 is around 5%, with plans to utilize special bonds and other broad deficit tools to exceed 16 trillion yuan in total deficit [4][5]. Comparison with Other Economies - Compared to major economies like the U.S. and Japan, which have high deficit rates exceeding 6%, China's central government has a lower leverage ratio, indicating room for increased fiscal measures to boost social confidence and effective demand [5][6]. Shift in Fiscal Spending Focus - There is a proposed shift in fiscal spending from primarily investment-focused to a balanced approach that includes both investment and consumption, emphasizing the need for increased support in public services and consumer spending [6][7]. Addressing Local Government Debt - Addressing local government debt risks is highlighted as a key aspect of fiscal efforts, with recommendations for orderly debt replacement and improved asset management to alleviate financial pressures [7][8]. Structural Issues and Policy Coordination - The article stresses the need to view government debt expansion in a balanced manner, recognizing its potential positive effects on economic growth while advocating for structural reforms in the fiscal and tax systems [8][9]. Economic Resilience and Domestic Demand - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is seen as a critical time for China to enhance its economic resilience and unleash domestic demand, supported by coordinated macroeconomic policies and ongoing urbanization efforts [9].

Core Points - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasized the need to improve the macroeconomic governance system to ensure high-quality and sustainable development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1] Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy is expected to play a proactive role during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with a focus on addressing issues through development [2] - To achieve the goal of doubling GDP by 2035, the actual GDP growth rate needs to be maintained at around 4.7%, which requires a high budget deficit level to support economic growth [2] - The deficit rate is suggested to be set at around 5% for 2026, with plans to utilize special bonds and other broad deficit tools, aiming for a total broad deficit scale exceeding 16 trillion yuan [2] Government Debt and Investment - Compared to major economies like the US and Japan, China's central government has a lower leverage ratio, which can be increased to boost social confidence and effective demand [3] - The focus of fiscal policy during the "14th Five-Year Plan" will shift from primarily investment to a balance between investment and consumption, enhancing public service and addressing shortfalls in healthcare, education, and elderly care [3][4] - There will be an emphasis on expanding effective investment in infrastructure, particularly in transportation, energy, and water conservancy, as well as supporting new industries like digital economy and green energy [4] Local Government Debt Management - Addressing local government debt risks is crucial for sustainable fiscal development, with some progress already made, though challenges remain [4][5] - The strategy includes orderly debt replacement, dynamic adjustment of high-risk areas, and enhancing government asset management [5][6] Economic Growth and Structural Issues - The relationship between government debt expansion and economic growth should be viewed objectively, recognizing the positive effects of debt efficiency and structure optimization [6] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is seen as a critical phase for China's transition to high-quality development, with potential for domestic demand to be released and resilience in foreign trade [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the fiscal revenue growth in the first three quarters of 2023 has shown a gradual recovery, reflecting a stable and improving economic situation [1][2] - National general public budget revenue reached 163,876 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.5%, while public budget expenditure was 208,064 billion yuan, increasing by 3.1% year-on-year [1][5] - The central government budget revenue decreased by 1.2% to 70,837 billion yuan, while local government budget revenue increased by 1.8% to 93,039 billion yuan [2][5] Group 2 - Tax revenue, which is the main component of fiscal income, grew by 0.7% year-on-year, with notable performances in several key tax categories [2][3] - The growth rates for specific taxes included a 3.6% increase in value-added tax, a 2.2% increase in consumption tax, and a significant 9.7% increase in personal income tax [3] - The government plans to allocate 500 billion yuan from the local government debt limit to support local debt repayment and expand effective investment, indicating a proactive fiscal policy [4][5] Group 3 - The expenditure in key strategic areas such as social security, technology, and environmental protection has been well-supported, with social security and employment spending growing by 10% [5][6] - The overall public budget expenditure growth of 3.1% in the first three quarters is attributed to increased spending in social welfare, education, and health sectors, which are at their highest growth rates in three years [6] - The government fund budget revenue decreased by 0.5% to 30,717 billion yuan, while the expenditure increased significantly by 23.9% to 74,924 billion yuan, driven by bond funds [6][7]

Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance reported a steady recovery in fiscal revenue and proactive fiscal spending in the first three quarters of 2023, indicating resilience in the economy [2][4]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - Fiscal revenue for the first three quarters reached 16.39 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, with a notable recovery in growth rates across quarters: a decline of 1.1% in Q1, a growth of 0.6% in Q2, and a growth of 2.5% in Q3 [2][3]. - Fiscal expenditure amounted to 20.81 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, with significant support for key areas such as social security, education, and health [2][3]. Key Areas of Spending - Specific spending increases included: social security and employment (10%), education (5.4%), health (4.7%), science and technology (6.5%), energy conservation and environmental protection (8.8%), and culture, tourism, sports, and media (4%) [3]. Local Government Debt Management - The Ministry of Finance plans to advance the 2026 new local government debt limit to support major projects and ensure a smooth budget preparation process [4]. - A recent allocation of 500 billion yuan from local government debt limits aims to enhance local fiscal capacity and support effective investment [6]. Hainan Duty-Free Shopping Policy - The adjustment of the Hainan duty-free shopping policy has expanded the number of duty-free product categories to 47, enhancing consumer choice and stimulating demand [7].