Core Viewpoint - The central economic work meeting emphasizes the importance of addressing local fiscal difficulties, indicating a shift towards systematic solutions for these issues, particularly in the context of increasing rigid expenditure and limited revenue growth [2][3][12]. Group 1: Local Fiscal Challenges - Local fiscal difficulties are characterized by insufficient liquidity and a stark contrast between limited fiscal revenue and unlimited rigid expenditures, particularly affecting grassroots fiscal conditions [2][11]. - The decline in land transfer income and the increasing burden of social welfare expenditures contribute to the worsening fiscal situation, with local governments struggling to meet the "three guarantees" (ensuring livelihood, salaries, and operational stability) [4][11]. - The phenomenon of "middle-region" fiscal challenges is prevalent, where regions like Liaoning face significant fiscal difficulties despite being classified as eastern provinces, highlighting horizontal fiscal imbalances [6][11]. Group 2: Revenue and Expenditure Dynamics - Local government revenues are under pressure from declining tax income, reduced land sales, and limited non-tax revenue sources, leading to a reliance on debt financing to cover expenditures [7][11]. - The fiscal growth and expenditure gap is widening, with increasing debt repayment obligations exacerbating the fiscal strain, particularly in regions with weaker industrial bases [5][11]. - The overall local government debt reached 53.7 trillion yuan by September 2025, with debt service payments growing faster than total expenditure, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [10][11]. Group 3: Policy Responses and Recommendations - The central government is expected to implement measures to enhance local fiscal sustainability, including increasing transfer payments, optimizing expenditure structures, and reforming the fiscal system [12][15]. - Recommendations for local governments include focusing on regional industrial upgrades, improving budget performance management, and strictly managing debt to prevent the accumulation of hidden liabilities [15]. - A systematic approach to resolving local fiscal difficulties is necessary, involving both immediate liquidity support and long-term structural reforms to enhance local revenue generation capabilities [13][14].

地方政府与城投企业债务风险研究报告－江苏省篇 联合资信 公用评级二部 |张建飞|邢小帆 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 报告概要： www.lhratings.com 研究报告 2 江苏省地理位置优越，资源禀赋突出，交通体系完善；城镇化水平较高；产业结构完备；"一 带一路"建设、长江经济带发展、长三角区域一体化发展以及近年来陆续出台的一系列稳经 济促发展的政策对江苏省经济、社会、文化发展起到了重大推进作用，江苏省经济总量及人 均 GDP 位居全国前列。2024 年，江苏省一般公共预算收入稳定增长，规模稳居全国第二位， 且质量及自给率较高；政府性基金收入规模有所下降，但仍对综合财力贡献大；江苏省整体 财政实力强。江苏省政府负债率及债务率在全国处于低水平。 江苏省各地级市在经济、财政、人口、产业分布等方面相对不均衡，南北差异明显，苏南地 区整体优于苏中、苏北地区。2024 年，江苏省各地级市经济规模均同比增长，除南京市外， 各地市一般公共预算收入均实现增长，苏南地区财政自给率高于苏北地区；受房地产市场低 迷影响，大部分地级市政府性基金收入同比下降。江苏省各地级市政府债务余额均保持增长， 地市政府 ...

被起诉在现实中可以成为拖延债务的一种便捷方式，反过来也说明司法实践中办案效率、办案能力需要进 一步提升。欠债者不怕被起诉，说明对于政府部门负责人而言，承担败诉带来的压力并不大。法律层面对 政府部门拒不执行判决裁定的，除了常规直接划拨、罚款、社会告知以及司法建议手段外，还可以对涉诉 行政机关直接负责人和其他直接责任人员予以拘留乃至追究刑事责任。但问题是法律保障司法执行的一系 列手段，在实践中并未被用足，客观上使得败诉后果比不上信访责任追究。 地方政府债务得到及时化解，以及在此过程中政府部门的具体表现、态度，事实上也会是地方营商环境很 重要的一部分。优化地方营商环境的核心在于提升法治，"可起诉别上访"的地方化债心态背后，反映出一 些地方政府部门对于司法诉讼、司法判决的认知偏差，司法机关迫切需要提升司法效率、执行刚性。当欠 债的败诉后果（特别是个人需要承担的部分）足够大，"可起诉但别上访"这句话说出来恐怕也就不那么轻 松了。 经过一个任期甚至几个任期依旧没有履行偿债义务，涉事地方政府部门的履约能力事实上已经出现问题， 拖延支付有客观上无力偿还的原因，但即便"新官理旧账"了，偿债能力究竟如何，也需要具体研判。正如 媒 ...

建议在"十五五"期间，中央额外发行约10万亿元的"新型城镇化特别国债"，以每年2万亿元左右的节奏投入，直接下达到县级政府。——李稻 葵 2025年11月13日，"中国新型城镇化理论·政策·实践论坛2025"在清华大学举办，胡祖才、江小涓、范恒山、李稻葵、魏后凯等多位专家学者参会，共同探 讨"十五五"时期中国城镇化发展图景。 以下为李稻葵在论坛上发表的主旨演讲精编。 清华大学中国经济思想与实践研究院院长李稻葵指出，"十五五"的核心任务之一是促进和扩大内需，以确保经济增长率不仅得以维持，更能逐步恢复到合 理水平，这一任务的紧迫性超出了一般预期。 在扩大内需的诸多抓手中，新型城镇化被视为最重要的发力点之一。"要大幅提升全国的消费和投资需求，必须让尚未城镇化的7亿人口逐步融入现代经济 生活，通过提高他们的城镇化水平来释放巨大的消费潜能。" 应当恢复到约7%左右" 从经济学家角度来看，"十五五"规划时期国家需要着力完成两项核心任务。 第一，在日益激烈的国际竞争中占据战略制高点，实现高水平科技自立自强。这意味着必须把科技创新置于优先位置，推动科技、人才、教育"三位一 体"的协同融合发展。 第二，要促进和扩大内需，以确保经 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Shenghong Co., Ltd. has conducted an investor survey, highlighting its revenue composition and market focus [1] - As of the latest report, Shenghong Co., Ltd. has a market capitalization of 14.6 billion yuan [2] - The revenue composition for Shenghong Co., Ltd. in 2024 is as follows: 78.02% from the new energy sector, 19.86% from smart grid, and 2.12% from other businesses [1]

Key Points - In October, China's manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced an additional 200 billion yuan in special bond quotas to support investment construction in certain provinces [2] - The China Iron and Steel Association indicated that the new supply-demand balance in the steel market is not yet solid, and self-discipline needs to be strengthened in the fourth quarter [3] Domestic News - The Ministry of Commerce highlighted the inclusion of trade and environment provisions in free trade agreements, such as the recently signed China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 upgrade, which prioritizes green trade [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the manufacturing PMI for October was influenced by pre-holiday demand release and complex international conditions [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology noted rapid growth in China's electronic information manufacturing, with smartphone production reaching 881 million units, a 1% year-on-year increase [1] International News - The U.S. Senate voted to cancel the "national emergency" invoked by President Trump for global tariffs [4] - U.S. Treasury Secretary criticized the Federal Reserve's recent monetary policy decisions, calling for a thorough reform of its mechanisms [4] - Tokyo's core CPI rose by 2.8% year-on-year in October, exceeding the Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target, maintaining expectations for short-term interest rate hikes [4] Economic Data and Market Overview - The Eurozone economy showed a slight growth of 0.2% in Q3, slightly above market expectations, but significant downside risks remain [5] - The latest market indices showed declines across major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.81% [5]

Group 1 - In the first nine months of 2023, China issued a total of 43,615 billion yuan in new local government bonds, comprising 6,758 billion yuan in general bonds and 36,857 billion yuan in special bonds [1] - The average issuance term for local government bonds was 15.6 years, with general bonds averaging 8.8 years and special bonds averaging 17.8 years; the average interest rate was 1.95%, with general bonds at 1.79% and special bonds at 1.99% [1] - In September 2023, a total of 4,741 billion yuan in new bonds were issued, including 550 billion yuan in general bonds and 4,191 billion yuan in special bonds, with an average issuance term of 16.8 years and an average interest rate of 2.18% [1] Group 2 - As of September 2025, the total local government debt balance was 536,995 billion yuan, with general debt at 173,119 billion yuan and special debt at 363,876 billion yuan [2] - The remaining average term for local government bonds was 10.5 years, with general bonds at 6.2 years and special bonds at 12.5 years; the average interest rate was 2.86%, with general bonds at 2.92% and special bonds at 2.83% [2] - The national local government debt limit for 2025 was set at 579,874.3 billion yuan, with general debt limit at 180,689.22 billion yuan and special debt limit at 399,185.08 billion yuan [2]

National Local Government Bond Issuance - In September 2025, a total of 474.1 billion yuan in new bonds were issued, including 55 billion yuan in general bonds and 419.1 billion yuan in special bonds [3] - The total issuance of refinancing bonds reached 387.8 billion yuan, comprising 171 billion yuan in general bonds and 216.8 billion yuan in special bonds, leading to a combined total of 861.9 billion yuan in local government bonds for the month [3] - The average issuance term for local government bonds in September was 16.8 years, with general bonds averaging 8.4 years and special bonds averaging 19.8 years [4] Average Issuance Rate - The average issuance interest rate for local government bonds in September was 2.18%, with general bonds at 2.01% and special bonds at 2.25% [5] Year-to-Date Issuance (January to September 2025) - From January to September 2025, a total of 4,361.5 billion yuan in new local government bonds were issued, including 675.8 billion yuan in general bonds and 3,685.7 billion yuan in special bonds [6] - The total refinancing bonds issued during this period amounted to 41,842 billion yuan, with general bonds at 13,799 billion yuan and special bonds at 28,043 billion yuan, resulting in a cumulative total of 85,457 billion yuan in local government bonds [6] - The average issuance term for local government bonds from January to September was 15.6 years, with general bonds averaging 8.8 years and special bonds averaging 17.8 years [7] Average Interest Rate Year-to-Date - The average interest rate for local government bonds from January to September was 1.95%, with general bonds at 1.79% and special bonds at 1.99% [8] Principal Repayment and Interest Payments - From January to September 2025, local government bonds had a principal repayment of 23,863 billion yuan, with refinancing bonds accounting for 20,527 billion yuan and other fiscal arrangements for 3,336 billion yuan [9] - In September alone, the principal repayment amounted to 4,108 billion yuan, while interest payments for local government bonds totaled 11,191 billion yuan for the year-to-date, with September's interest payments at 1,328 billion yuan [10] Local Government Debt Balance - As of the end of September 2025, the total local government debt balance was 536,995 billion yuan, with general debt at 173,119 billion yuan and special debt at 363,876 billion yuan [11] - The total government bonds stood at 535,360 billion yuan, with non-government bond forms of government debt at 1,635 billion yuan [11] - The average remaining term for local government bonds was 10.5 years, with general bonds at 6.2 years and special bonds at 12.5 years, and the average interest rate was 2.86%, with general bonds at 2.92% and special bonds at 2.83% [11]

Group 1: National Local Government Bond Issuance - In September 2025, a total of 4,741 billion yuan in new bonds were issued, comprising 550 billion yuan in general bonds and 4,191 billion yuan in special bonds [2] - The total refinancing bonds issued amounted to 3,878 billion yuan, with 1,710 billion yuan in general bonds and 2,168 billion yuan in special bonds, leading to a combined total of 8,619 billion yuan in local government bonds issued [2] - The average issuance term for local government bonds in September 2025 was 16.8 years, with general bonds averaging 8.4 years and special bonds averaging 19.8 years [2] Group 2: Year-to-Date Bond Issuance - From January to September 2025, a total of 43,615 billion yuan in new local government bonds were issued, including 6,758 billion yuan in general bonds and 36,857 billion yuan in special bonds [3] - The total refinancing bonds issued during this period reached 41,842 billion yuan, with 13,799 billion yuan in general bonds and 28,043 billion yuan in special bonds, resulting in an overall issuance of 85,457 billion yuan in local government bonds [3] Group 3: Debt Repayment and Interest Payments - In the first nine months of 2025, local government bonds had a principal repayment of 23,863 billion yuan, with 20,527 billion yuan from refinancing bonds and 3,336 billion yuan from other fiscal arrangements [5] - Interest payments for local government bonds totaled 11,191 billion yuan from January to September 2025, with 1,328 billion yuan paid in September alone [6] Group 4: Local Government Debt Balance - As of the end of September 2025, the total local government debt balance was 536,995 billion yuan, with 173,119 billion yuan in general debt and 363,876 billion yuan in special debt [7] - The average remaining term for local government bonds was 10.5 years, with general bonds averaging 6.2 years and special bonds averaging 12.5 years, and the average interest rate was 2.86% [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of fiscal policy during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, advocating for proactive measures to support economic growth and address challenges, with a target GDP growth rate of approximately 4.7% to achieve the 2035 doubling goal [4][5]. Fiscal Policy Role - Fiscal policy is expected to play a crucial role in the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, with a focus on maintaining a high budget deficit to stimulate economic growth [4][5]. - The suggested budget deficit rate for 2026 is around 5%, with plans to utilize special bonds and other broad deficit tools to exceed 16 trillion yuan in total deficit [4][5]. Comparison with Other Economies - Compared to major economies like the U.S. and Japan, which have high deficit rates exceeding 6%, China's central government has a lower leverage ratio, indicating room for increased fiscal measures to boost social confidence and effective demand [5][6]. Shift in Fiscal Spending Focus - There is a proposed shift in fiscal spending from primarily investment-focused to a balanced approach that includes both investment and consumption, emphasizing the need for increased support in public services and consumer spending [6][7]. Addressing Local Government Debt - Addressing local government debt risks is highlighted as a key aspect of fiscal efforts, with recommendations for orderly debt replacement and improved asset management to alleviate financial pressures [7][8]. Structural Issues and Policy Coordination - The article stresses the need to view government debt expansion in a balanced manner, recognizing its potential positive effects on economic growth while advocating for structural reforms in the fiscal and tax systems [8][9]. Economic Resilience and Domestic Demand - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is seen as a critical time for China to enhance its economic resilience and unleash domestic demand, supported by coordinated macroeconomic policies and ongoing urbanization efforts [9].