总量团队联合展望 - 2026 年度策略报告汇报会议 20251119 摘要 2026 年中国经济预计将经历供给端升级和需求端提振，GDP 目标或设 定在 5%左右，财政政策稳健，货币政策支持国家战略，关注中美关系 和国内价格问题。 全球资本市场主线围绕中美科技与安全竞赛展开，科技资本开支增加， 看好铜铝等有色金属资产，以及中美科技股，美国中期选举对经济稳定 有诉求。 外需复苏可能缓解房地产市场跌势，预计 2026 年 PPI 同比增速转正， 风险资产优于避险资产，市场对房地产的悲观预期或将逆转。 2026 年固收投资策略倾向于保守票息策略，信用利差处于极低位置， 不建议信用加仓，关注元旦、春节前后信贷续接及非标债务续接等个体 性机会。 长周期对债券投资具指导意义，关注康波周期、库兹涅茨周期和朱格拉 周期变化，预计中长期利率中枢上移，政策精准针对经济堵点和痛点。 Q&A 未来一年中国宏观经济将会有哪些变化？哪些政策值得期待？ 未来一年，中国宏观经济将经历显著变化，主要体现在以下几个方面： 预计 2026 年货币政策接近尾声，十年国债利率下行空间有限，企业贷 款对制造业支持充分，土地部门风险出清依赖政府，反内卷 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Engineering Machinery Industry Industry Overview - The engineering machinery industry is experiencing a shift towards a healthier development despite the inevitable defaults caused by the credit sales model. Leading manufacturers such as SANY, XCMG, and Zoomlion are expected to show better financial performance in the first half of 2025 compared to 2024, indicating that overall risks in the sector are manageable [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Sales Growth and Market Performance**: - Excavator sales are projected to double over the next three years, reaching approximately 200,000 units. In February 2025, domestic excavator sales nearly doubled, and leading manufacturers' stock prices outperformed the CSI 300 index by 10% to 20% in the following three months [1][4]. - In September, strong export performance of used machinery was noted, with small excavators showing a year-on-year growth rate of nearly 30% and medium to large excavators close to 90%. Overall, exports increased by about 50% in the first nine months of the year [1][5]. - **Market Dynamics**: - The domestic market is supported by robust exports of used machinery, which alleviates pressure from declining domestic demand. This trend mirrors Japan's experience in the early 2000s, where used machinery exports helped mitigate domestic downturns [5]. - The market share of domestic companies in large excavators and mining machinery is increasing, with significant growth in exports noted in July (70% year-on-year) and September (close to 100%) [5]. - **Investment Opportunities**: - Short-term fluctuations in data or public sentiment are viewed as opportunities for left-side investment strategies. The engineering machinery sector has shown excess returns recently, with companies like XCMG seeing stock price increases of nearly 30% in the last two months [6][7]. - The overall investment logic remains strong, driven by domestic recovery and external alpha effects, making it a favorable time for positioning and increasing holdings in the sector [7]. Notable Companies and Categories - The report highlights several companies with strong competitive positions, including SANY, XCMG, Zoomlion, and LiuGong. These companies are expected to perform well in the current market environment, with various machinery categories such as cranes and concrete pumps also showing double-digit growth [3][8]. Additional Insights - The trend towards electrification and automation in large mining equipment presents a significant opportunity for domestic companies to gain a competitive edge. The rising prices of gold and copper are driving demand in regions like Africa, further enhancing the market position of domestic brands [5]. This comprehensive overview captures the essential insights from the conference call regarding the engineering machinery industry, highlighting both the challenges and opportunities present in the current market landscape.

Group 1: A-Share Market Performance - The A-share market continues to show strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3877.55 points, up 0.41%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rising to 13197.01 points, up 1.02% [1] - Since September 2024, the A-share market has entered a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 45% from its low of 2690 points, reaching a 10-year high [3] - The ChiNext Index has seen an impressive increase of 100% from its low, indicating robust market activity and investor confidence [3] Group 2: Foreign Investment in Chinese Assets - Over 90% of foreign investors express willingness to increase their exposure to Chinese assets, the highest level since early 2021 [7] - Global hedge funds are rapidly buying Chinese stocks, with a buy-to-short ratio of approximately 9:1, indicating strong bullish sentiment [7] - Fidelity Investments has increased its registered capital from $160 million to $182 million, reflecting foreign institutions' confidence in the Chinese market [8] Group 3: Long-term Bull Market Outlook - Historical trends suggest that China experiences significant bull markets approximately every ten years, with the current bull market driven by policy easing, a new technological revolution, and ample liquidity [11] - Analysts believe the current market is still in its early stages, with potential for significant growth, although it may not reach the extreme levels of previous bull markets [11] - The upcoming bull market is expected to surpass the previous high of 6124 points, with some estimates suggesting a potential target of 15,000 points from a starting point of 2600 [11] Group 4: Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The Hang Seng Index has continued its upward trend, closing at 26812.19 points, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 3.5% [5] - The influx of capital into the Hong Kong market is driven by strong performance in technology and financial sectors [5] - Analysts suggest that the Hong Kong market may be poised for a rebound, particularly in internet, consumer, pharmaceutical, and non-bank financial sectors [12]

Group 1 - A-shares are experiencing a significant upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 3877.55 points, a 0.41% increase, and the Shenzhen Component Index rising to 13197.01 points, a 1.02% increase [1] - Since September 2024, the A-share market has seen a robust rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 45% from its low of 2690 points, marking a 10-year high, while the ChiNext Index has surged by 100% [2] - The Hong Kong market is also performing well, with the Hang Seng Index up by 1.41% and the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 3.5%, driven by strong inflows of capital [3] Group 2 - Over 90% of foreign investors express willingness to increase their exposure to Chinese assets, the highest level since early 2021, indicating a growing confidence in the market [4] - Global hedge funds are rapidly buying Chinese stocks, with a 9:1 ratio of long positions to short covering, reflecting a strong bullish sentiment [4] - Foreign investment firms are actively increasing their capital in China, with Fidelity's registered capital rising from 16 million USD to 18.2 million USD, showing a fivefold increase since inception [5] Group 3 - Historical trends suggest that China has experienced three major bull markets since 2000, with the current bull market potentially aligning with the "Juglar cycle" of economic fluctuations [8] - The current bull market is driven by policy easing, a new wave of technological revolution, and ample liquidity, suggesting strong upward momentum [9] - Analysts believe that the upcoming bull market could surpass previous highs, with potential targets for the A-share market being discussed in relation to currency strength [9] Group 4 - The Hong Kong market is seen as a potential beneficiary of the current trends, with recommendations to focus on sectors such as internet, consumer, pharmaceuticals, and non-bank financials [10] - The recent dovish signals from the Federal Reserve may improve foreign capital inflow expectations into the Hong Kong market, enhancing its attractiveness [10] - The upcoming "Phoenix Bay Area Finance Forum 2025" will discuss the prospects of a decade-long bull market in Chinese assets, featuring prominent financial figures [11]

Core Viewpoint - The coal power industry is facing a peak in demand, with coal power generation expected to reach its maximum capacity this year, potentially capped at 5.55 trillion kilowatt-hours [2][3]. Group 1: Coal Power Generation Trends - In the first half of this year, national coal power generation has declined, with a reported generation of 294 million kilowatt-hours in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year decrease of 2.41% [1][5]. - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, coal power generation growth rates were around 1% in 2022 and 2024, compared to approximately 9% in 2021 and 7% in 2023 [1][5]. - The report indicates that the slowdown in overall electricity consumption growth and the rapid increase in renewable energy installations are primary factors contributing to the peak in coal power generation [3][4]. Group 2: Future Projections and Economic Factors - The report anticipates that during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, electricity consumption growth will gradually converge with GDP growth rates, potentially even falling below GDP growth [3]. - It is projected that the increase in electricity consumption during the "15th Five-Year Plan" could still reach between 1.4 trillion to 1.7 trillion kilowatt-hours, which can be met by renewable energy installations [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Policy Changes - The introduction of market reforms for renewable energy pricing has led to a decrease in the revenue for solar power, with prices dropping from approximately 0.355 yuan per kilowatt-hour in 2022 to 0.325 yuan per kilowatt-hour in the first half of this year [6]. - Coal power plants are now required to participate more actively in market trading, with their pricing mechanisms still based on a "base price + fluctuations" model [7]. - The average coal consumption for power generation has significantly decreased, reaching 300.7 grams of standard coal per kilowatt-hour by June this year, a reduction of over 10 grams since 2016 [10]. Group 4: Role of Coal Power in the Energy Transition - As the penetration of renewable energy increases, coal power is evolving into a more flexible and regulatory power source to manage the intermittency and volatility of renewable energy [11]. - Experts suggest that the auxiliary service functions of coal power should be valued higher in the market, as the cost of integrating a larger share of low-cost renewable energy will require additional investments [11].

Core Insights - The report indicates that coal power generation is expected to peak this year, with a maximum output of 5.55 trillion kilowatt-hours, primarily due to a slowdown in overall electricity demand and rapid growth in renewable energy capacity [1][2] - The report anticipates that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, total electricity consumption will grow by approximately 4 trillion kilowatt-hours, driven by factors such as rapid GDP growth and increased electrification [1] - The coal power industry is facing a demand peak, limiting future growth potential, while installed capacity continues to rise, which may further reduce profitability [3][4] Electricity Consumption and Growth - During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, electricity consumption is projected to increase by 1.4 to 1.7 trillion kilowatt-hours, which can be met by renewable energy sources [2] - The report estimates that from 2025 to 2035, non-coal power resources in China are expected to grow by over 300 million kilowatts annually, adequately meeting electricity demand [2] Coal Power Generation Trends - In the first half of this year, coal power generation has already shown a decline, with a reported 2.94 trillion kilowatt-hours generated, a year-on-year decrease of 2.41% [2] - The growth rate of coal power generation was around 9% in 2021, approximately 7% in 2023, and only about 1% in both 2022 and 2024 [2] Market Dynamics and Pricing - The coal power sector is transitioning from a primary energy source to a regulatory power source, with an increase in installed capacity despite limited growth in generation [4] - The average coal consumption for power generation has significantly decreased, reaching 300.7 grams of standard coal per kilowatt-hour, a reduction of over 10 grams since 2016 [9] - The introduction of market mechanisms for electricity pricing is leading to a decline in profitability for coal power plants, as they are now required to participate in market trading [5][6] Renewable Energy Impact - The marginal cost of renewable energy generation is approaching zero, which is expected to lower wholesale electricity prices, while the system will incur higher costs to accommodate the increased renewable capacity [11] - The report emphasizes the need for a pricing system that reflects the capabilities of different energy resources to ensure the sustainability of the energy market [11]

Group 1 - The market is expected to rebound next week, with the potential for the ChiNext index to reach new highs [1] - The current bull market is supported by a new economic cycle, with historical bull markets occurring approximately every 10 years in A-shares [1] - The Federal Reserve is likely to initiate a new round of interest rate cuts in mid-September, influenced by rising unemployment and disappointing non-farm payroll data [1] Group 2 - The rebound target for the Shanghai Composite Index is set at 3920 points, which is a significant resistance level derived from previous market highs [2] - Investors should focus on sector rotation during market fluctuations, with potential for recovery in underperforming sectors such as food and beverage, lithium batteries, consumer electronics, CXO, and liquor [2] Group 3 - Opportunities for industry performance inflection points are identified in CXO and medical devices [3] - Individual stock performance inflection points are anticipated in lithium batteries [3] - Future potential hotspots include solid-state batteries, humanoid robots, low-altitude economy, and satellite networking [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a comprehensive investment framework that integrates macro, meso, and micro perspectives to identify potential investment opportunities and risks in the current economic environment [2][11]. Macro Analysis - Macro factors can be broken down into three key elements: growth, inflation, and monetary & fiscal policies, with indicators such as PMI, PPI & CPI, and M1 being crucial for observation [3]. - The macroeconomic cycle can be predicted by analyzing these indicators, with specific attention to the experience of past downturns and recoveries [3][4]. - The expectation of mean reversion in macro indicators like PMI and PPI is highlighted as a reliable investment strategy, especially in the context of the current economic conditions [4]. Meso Industry Analysis - Investment should focus on industries in an upward phase of the economic cycle, particularly those with oligopolistic or monopolistic competition structures [5]. - The selection of leading companies within these industries should be based on their market share, profitability, and competitive advantages [5]. - Industry cycles can be assessed using various cycles, with a focus on the utilization rates of production capacity and inventory cycles to determine optimal entry points for investment [6][7]. Micro Financial Analysis - Key financial metrics for evaluating companies include a solid balance sheet with a Debt/Equity Ratio below 70%, a profit and cash flow alignment, and a sustainable payout ratio of over 30% [8][10]. - The importance of free cash flow generation and reasonable valuation multiples (e.g., below 10x P/E or 10x market cap/free cash flow) is emphasized for long-term investment success [9]. - Companies that maintain a consistent dividend payout ratio while reinvesting retained earnings for growth are seen as ideal candidates for investment [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for nickel is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The nickel industry has experienced different development stages driven by demand and supply. In the past, stainless - steel demand and later new - energy vehicle demand have respectively boosted nickel prices, while subsequent technological breakthroughs and capacity expansions have led to an oversupply situation. The industry cycle that started in 2017 may turn around in 2028, and new demand from solid - state batteries is expected to reverse the current oversupply pattern [1][2][3] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Nickel Iron & Stainless Steel: A Close - knit Relationship 3.1.1 Before 2007: Stainless - steel demand drives nickel price up - From 1997 - 2007, global stainless - steel nickel consumption grew at a CAGR of about 3.3%, accounting for over 60% of nickel end - consumption. After China joined the WTO in 2001, its stainless - steel production increased rapidly, with a CAGR of 44.9% from 2000 - 2005 and 30% from 2005 - 2010. The shortage of supply led to a significant increase in nickel price and a pressing need for stainless - steel cost reduction. During this period, there were changes in the ore end and raw materials, with laterite nickel ore replacing sulfide nickel ore, and the smelting process evolving from one - step to two - step and three - step methods. Chinese enterprises also started using laterite nickel ore to smelt NPI, which became the main raw material for stainless - steel production, reducing costs [18][19][24] 3.1.2 2007 - 2015: Nickel capacity expands rapidly, and weakening stainless - steel demand causes nickel price to decline - High nickel prices attracted many domestic enterprises to produce NPI using laterite nickel ore. Since 2010, domestic nickel ore imports have increased significantly. By 2011, NPI accounted for over 50% of the primary nickel raw materials for stainless - steel production in China. However, stainless - steel demand weakened due to the global economic downturn, leading to a large accumulation of LME nickel inventory and a decline in nickel price [34][35] 3.1.3 RKEF and Oxygen - Enriched Side - Blowing Process Discussion and Cost Calculation - RKEF is the mainstream process for nickel - iron preparation, with advantages such as a short process flow, high production efficiency, and high nickel recovery rate, but it has limitations in terms of cobalt recovery and energy consumption. The oxygen - enriched side - blowing process (OESBF) is more advanced, with better raw - material applicability and lower energy consumption, and it can also recover cobalt. Cost calculations show that the cost of RKEF - produced nickel - iron is about 1333 dollars per physical ton, and the cost of OESBF - produced high - grade nickel matte is about 11,800 dollars per metal ton [38][40][50] 3.2 Intermediate Products: Technological Breakthroughs, Raw - Material Structure Shuffle 3.2.1 2018 - 2022: New - energy demand opens a second growth curve, and the smelting end breaks the binary supply - demand imbalance - With the rapid development of new - energy vehicles, the demand for ternary batteries increased, driving up the demand for nickel. The production of ternary precursors in China increased nearly four - fold from 2020 to 2022. However, the traditional "laterite nickel ore - stainless steel" and "sulfide nickel ore - nickel salt/pure nickel" binary supply - demand pattern could not meet the demand for nickel sulfate, leading to a supply - demand imbalance. Nickel beans/nickel powder were initially popular for producing nickel sulfate due to their short extraction cycle [56][57][62] 3.2.2 2023 - present: Supply - side expansion leads to an industry - wide oversupply - As the profit of producing nickel sulfate from pure nickel decreased, the HPAL process for laterite nickel ore and the production of nickel sulfate from high - grade nickel matte became mainstream. Currently, there is over 400,000 metal tons of MHP wet - process production capacity in Indonesia. The electric - deposition process has matured, leading to a rapid increase in pure - nickel production. The large - scale production of deliverable products has made it difficult to repeat the "short - squeeze" market, but the oversupply situation will continue until demand improves [70][80][84] 3.2.3 HPAL Process Discussion and Cost Calculation - HPAL has a high cobalt - recovery rate, which can significantly offset costs. The cost of HPAL - produced MHP is relatively low. After deducting the cobalt cost, the full cost of MHP is about 7732 dollars per metal ton. The investment cost of wet - process projects is expected to decrease with technological maturity, and the reduction of production cost depends on the increase in cobalt price [88][92][95] 3.3 Current Situation and Outlook of Smelting - End Capacity 3.3.1 Nickel Iron: FENI supply stabilizes after clearance, and NPI capacity reaches a phased peak - After the nickel - iron to high - grade nickel matte conversion process was established and the electric - deposition nickel capacity expanded, nickel iron became a raw material for electric - deposition nickel. However, the price change of nickel iron is difficult to be smoothly transmitted to the market. FENI has experienced production cuts due to high costs, and its supply is expected to remain stable [96][97]

Group 1 - The current bull market is characterized as a "confidence bull" driven by significant policy easing, abundant liquidity, and a new wave of technological revolution, marking it as a once-in-a-decade opportunity [4][8][13] - Since September 2024, the bull market has seen substantial gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 45% from its low of 2690, and the ChiNext Index increasing by 79%, indicating a strong market recovery [5][7] - The market capitalization has surged from 70 trillion to 100 trillion, creating a wealth effect of 30 trillion, which is significant for the overall economy [7][8] Group 2 - Three main drivers of the current bull market include continuous policy easing, a new technological revolution, and ample liquidity, which together create a robust "confidence bull" [8][13] - The policy shift since September 2024 has led to a historic turning point, with measures such as interest rate cuts, relaxed housing market restrictions, and significant infrastructure investments boosting market sentiment [8][11] - The technological revolution, particularly in sectors like artificial intelligence and semiconductors, is expected to lead the market, reflecting a shift towards new economic drivers [11][14] Group 3 - The bull market is expected to fulfill three historical missions: supporting the development of new productive forces, aiding in major power competition, and repairing household balance sheets [13][15] - The capital market's prosperity is crucial for financing new economy sectors, which are often unable to secure funding through traditional banking systems due to their high-tech and asset-light nature [15][18] - The recovery of household balance sheets is vital, as the stock market's growth can offset the wealth loss from the real estate market, potentially leading to increased consumer spending [15][18] Group 4 - The outlook for the bull market includes the potential for a prolonged "slow bull" phase, which would significantly benefit hard technology development and economic recovery [17][19] - Continuous macroeconomic policy easing is essential for sustaining the bull market, with expectations for further interest rate cuts and fiscal stimulus to support demand [17][19] - The unique characteristics of the A-share market, dominated by retail investors, necessitate careful regulation of leverage to ensure healthy market development [18][19]