融 研 究 院 聚酯产业的供需发展 金 张永鸽 期货从业证号：F0282934 投资咨询证号: Z0011351 弘 业 期 货 01丨原料端的产能发展情况 02丨下游聚酯的产能发展情况 原料端的产能发展情况 聚酯产业链的产能发展 期 货 金 融 研 究 -10.00% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 2014年2015年2016年2017年2018年2019年2020年2021年2022年2023年2024年 聚酯产业链产能增速变化 MEG产能增速 PTA产能增速 聚酯产能增速 PX产能增速 | 业 | 2018年 | 2019年 | 2020年 | 2021年 | 2022年 | 2023年 | 22024年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX产能 | 1463 | 2103 | 2603 | 3208 | 3597 | 4367 | 4367 | | PX产能增速 | 0 | 43.75% | 23.78% | 23.24% | 12.13% | 21.41% | 0% | | ...

【现货方面】 11月18日，PTA期货震荡下跌，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差略走强，少量聚酯工厂递盘。个别主 流供应商出货。11月在01贴水70~72附近商谈成交，个别略低在01-75有成交，价格商谈区间在 4580~4645附近。12月上在01-65附近有成交，12月下在01-55~58有成交。11月仓单在01-50附近有成 交。主流现货基差在01-72。 【利润方面】 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有，客户在接收到本报告后，应遵循报告来源机构对报告的版权规定，不得刊载或转发。 需求：截至11月14日，有几套瓶片和长丝装置检修，聚酯负荷降至90.3%附近（-1%）。11月18日，涤 丝价格重心零星调整，产销整体偏弱。印度BIS认证限制逐步撤销，印度客户询价增加，FDY细旦丝外 销放量，价格上涨。目前工厂库存较低且位于旺季收尾阶段，短期价格依然易涨难跌。后期继 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Construction Investment suggests focusing on sectors that are expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" trend, as the chemical industry faces a slowdown in capital expenditure and an approaching cyclical turning point [1] Group 1: Beneficial Sectors - Recommended sectors include pesticides, urea, soda ash, filament, organic silicon, and spandex, which are likely to benefit from the "anti-involution" trend [1] - In the context of a declining interest rate cycle, China's counter-cyclical policies are expected to boost domestic demand, making sectors like polyurethane, coal chemical, petroleum chemical, and fluorochemical attractive [1] Group 2: New Material Development - The development of new productive forces, self-control, and industrial upgrading are emphasized as key strategies in the context of major power competition, with new materials being a primary development direction for China's chemical industry [1] - Focus areas include semiconductor materials, OLED materials, COC materials, and other high value-added products [1] Group 3: High Shareholder Returns - High-quality companies with substantial shareholder returns are expected to continue their revaluation journey, particularly state-owned enterprises in the oil and gas petrochemical sector, coal chemical, compound fertilizer, phosphorus chemical, and leading companies in the MSG/feed amino acid industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Construction Investment suggests focusing on specific sectors within the chemical industry that are expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" trend and the upcoming economic cycle shift, while also highlighting the importance of new material development in the context of national competition [1] Group 1: Investment Recommendations - Attention is recommended for sectors such as pesticides, urea, soda ash, long fibers, organic silicon, and spandex, which are likely to benefit from the "anti-involution" trend [1] - In the context of a declining interest rate cycle, sectors like polyurethane, coal chemical, petroleum chemical, and fluorochemical are suggested for investment as they may help stimulate domestic demand [1] Group 2: Development Focus - The report emphasizes the development of new productive forces, self-sufficiency, and industrial upgrades as key strategies in the context of major power competition, with new materials being a primary focus for the Chinese chemical industry [1] - Specific attention is drawn to the continuous development of semiconductor materials, OLED materials, COC materials, and other high value-added products [1] Group 3: Quality Enterprises - High shareholder returns from quality enterprises are expected to continue their revaluation journey, with a focus on leading state-owned enterprises in oil and gas, coal chemical, compound fertilizer, phosphorus chemical, and amino acid industries for feed and flavoring [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic demand provides strong short - term support, and although exports are not significantly affected in the near term, the long - term outlook is positive. There is still an opportunity for positive demand feedback within the year [23]. - In the medium term, there are many new installations, and the supply - demand balance will face pressure in 2026 [23][29]. Summary by Catalog 1.江阴地区短纤工厂调研情况汇总 1.1 近期内需和销售订单情况 - Short - fiber factories reported that recent domestic demand was generally good. In November, the demand situation was significantly better than in previous years. The market was dominated by rigid - demand purchases, and there was relatively little speculative demand. Differentiated products such as color - spun, cationic, and recycled black silk were in high demand and had tight supply. Enterprises were optimistic about the continuation of this peak season, expecting it to last until December or mid - to - late December [8]. 1.2 近期出口需求情况以及公司海外布局情况 - The export demand of short - fiber enterprises remained stable, with an export proportion generally between 20% - 30%. Main export markets included Europe, Turkey, and Southeast Asia. Short - fiber enterprises were cautious about overseas layout and mainly focused on market expansion. They were confident about next year's exports [9]. 1.3 近期工厂的开工和利润 - Short - fiber factories maintained a high operating rate, basically at full capacity. Current processing profits were generally good, and enterprises optimized cash flow by configuring differentiated products. Some enterprises might be more active in annual long - term contract negotiations or reduce the contract scale [10]. 1.4 当前原料库存情况 - The current raw material inventory of short - fiber factories was relatively stable. The difference mainly came from the procurement model. Some PTA inventories were maintained at 7 - 10 days, and MEG inventories were about 10 days. Raw material procurement was mainly through contracts, with a contract ratio of about 50% - 60% [11]. 1.5 当前成品库存情况 - The overall finished - product inventory was at a low level. Standard product inventories were generally controlled within 7 - 10 days, and some enterprise inventories of certain models dropped to single - digit levels. Non - standard product inventories were relatively high, but the overall pressure was not large [12]. 1.6 对未来行情的展望 - Enterprises were relatively optimistic about the short - term market, but had different views on the demand after December. They expected the export market to maintain stable growth next year, but also needed to pay attention to the impact of polyester capacity expansion in regions such as India and Indonesia [14]. 2. 江浙织造、家纺企业调研情况汇总 2.1 近期内需和销售情况 - The recent domestic demand of polyester terminals was differentiated, with clothing performing better than home textiles, knitting better than weaving, and texturing better than fabric - making. The terminal demand was mainly domestic, with good demand for autumn and winter clothing and ammonia - spandex super - soft home clothes, while the demand for traditional home textile categories was relatively weak. Seasonal orders recovered from mid - October to November, but the sustainability of new orders was insufficient [15]. 2.2 近期开工和利润情况 - Most enterprises had a high operating rate for different reasons. In terms of profit, texturing showed a month - on - month recovery, the grey fabric sector was basically at the break - even point, and fabric profits were generally average. Enterprises tried various methods to make up for comprehensive profits [16]. 2.3 近期出口需求情况以及海外布局情况 - After the new tariff negotiation, some foreign trade shipments improved, but there was no surge in textile and clothing exports. Enterprises were actively seeking overseas development opportunities, but overseas projects still faced uncertainties [17]. 2.4 企业当前的原料和库存情况 - Raw material procurement was relatively cautious, mainly spot purchases for immediate use. The raw material inventory cycle was mostly 15 - 30 days, and some enterprises stocked up until mid - November [20]. 2.5 企业当前的成品库存情况 - The inventory levels of enterprises were differentiated. Most enterprises had low physical inventories, significantly lower than during the trade war in the first half of the year. Some enterprises reduced inventory through production cuts and price reductions [21]. 2.6 对未来行情的展望 - Enterprises were cautious about the pre - holiday market and expected to consider early holidays in mid - January to control inventory. In the long term, factors such as intensified domestic competition and tariff policy fluctuations would continue to pressure the industry [22]. 3. 总结与展望 - Domestic demand provides strong short - term support, and exports are expected to improve in the long term. There is still an opportunity for positive demand feedback within the year. The resilience of the terminal is stronger than the market expected. It is not recommended to bet against demand too early [23]. - Although the recent Sino - US negotiation result has not brought obvious export growth, the overall export tariff has dropped to more than 30%, and the long - term tax rate expectation is relatively stable, which is beneficial to exports in the long run [24]. - The fiber sector has high operating rates, low inventories, and neutral profits, and can maintain its operation. In the medium term, there are many new installations, and the supply - demand balance will face pressure in 2026 [23][29]. 4. 附录：调研信息汇总表 - The appendix provides detailed information on the surveyed enterprises, including their general situation, recent operating and profit conditions, domestic demand and sales, export demand, raw material and finished - product inventory, overseas layout, and outlook for future market conditions [35][38]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the role of the futures market in supporting high-quality development of the real economy through innovative tools and services tailored to industry needs [1] Group 1: Transition in Commodity Trading - The article discusses the transformation of the commodity trading model from a focus on price speculation to providing essential services for the real economy [2][3] - Heatlink Group has shifted from being a mere intermediary to a value integrator, emphasizing the importance of optimizing value matching rather than merely profiting from price differences [2][4] Group 2: Financial Derivatives as a Solution - Financial derivatives are highlighted as a key tool for managing risks and enhancing collaboration between upstream and downstream partners, moving them from adversarial pricing strategies to shared risk and benefits [4][6] - The case of a methanol company illustrates how Heatlink Group utilized a combination of basis trading and warehouse solutions to mitigate delivery risks and enhance profitability [4][5] Group 3: Comprehensive Service Framework - Heatlink Group's "Pyramid" model outlines a structured approach to service delivery, focusing on risk management as the foundation, followed by sales optimization and comprehensive industry services [7][8] - The "Five-Dimensional Steward" service model is introduced, which provides tailored solutions across various risk management dimensions, enhancing client relationships and operational stability [9][10] Group 4: Building Collaborative Relationships - The article stresses the importance of establishing stable relationships within the supply chain, moving away from weak, price-driven partnerships to a model of value co-creation [13][14] - Successful collaborations, such as with Inner Mongolia Boda, demonstrate how trust and shared goals can lead to improved efficiency and mutual benefits [13][14] Group 5: Future Directions and Industry Evolution - Heatlink Group aims to evolve from a traditional trading company to a comprehensive service provider that supports continuous operations for manufacturing enterprises [15][16] - The focus is on creating a sustainable ecosystem where financial derivatives are used to enhance operational stability and profitability, reflecting a broader trend in the commodity industry towards integrated service models [16]

Summary of New Feng Ming's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: New Feng Ming - **Industry**: Polyester Fiber Production Key Financial Metrics - **Revenue**: - 2025 Q1-Q3 revenue reached 51.542 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 4.77% [2][4] - Q3 revenue was 18.051 billion CNY [2][4] - **Sales Volume**: - Total sales volume for Q1-Q3 was 8.218 million tons [2][4] - Q3 sales volume was 2.9209 million tons [2][4] - **Net Profit**: - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 869 million CNY, with a significant decline in operating cash flow by 67.44% to 1.33 billion CNY due to increased inventory [2][6] - **Gross Margin**: - Q1-Q3 gross margins for long filaments, short fibers, and PTA were 6.68%, 6.48%, and 0.28% respectively [2][6] - Q3 PTA gross margin was -1.63% [2][6] Production and Operational Insights - **Production Volume**: - Total production for Q1-Q3 was 13.4174 million tons, with long filament production at 6.0984 million tons [4] - **Operating Rates**: - Overall operating rate maintained at approximately 88% [8] - FDY operating rate decreased by about 20% since August, while POY decreased by about 3% [7][8] - **Single Ton Profitability**: - Average single ton profitability was around 130 CNY for both Q1-Q3 and Q3 [9] Industry Dynamics - **PTA Industry Challenges**: - The PTA industry faced significant losses, with New Feng Ming reporting a loss of nearly 130 million CNY in Q3 [2][10] - A meeting with leading private enterprises was held to address price discrepancies, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology providing guidance [10] - **Market Conditions**: - The long filament industry is experiencing a seasonal demand increase starting from September, with noticeable inventory reductions [5][15] - **Export Trends**: - Long filament exports showed slight growth, driven by reduced overseas garment inventories and new market explorations in Europe and Africa [16] Future Outlook - **New Capacity Plans**: - Plans to launch two new 360,000-ton production lines in 2026 to enhance product differentiation [17] - **Cost Reduction Strategies**: - The company has successfully reduced costs by approximately 30 CNY per ton compared to the previous year, with further potential for cost reductions in the coming years [25] - **Differentiated Products**: - Approximately 25% of the group's products are differentiated, although detailed revenue contributions are not yet available [26] Strategic Initiatives - **Upstream Investments**: - Adjusted stake in an Indonesian cracking project to 15% as a financial investment to secure PX supply [5][13] - **Collaboration with Lifu Bio**: - A project to produce bio-based polyester fibers is expected to launch in May 2026, potentially reducing production costs significantly [27] Conclusion - New Feng Ming is navigating a challenging market environment with strategic initiatives aimed at cost reduction, capacity expansion, and collaboration to enhance profitability and market position. The company is focused on addressing industry-wide issues while exploring new growth opportunities in differentiated products and international markets.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - PTA is expected to fluctuate weakly following the cost in the weak supply - demand situation, and the industry should continue the strategy of hedging on rallies in the fourth - quarter inventory accumulation pattern. MEG is expected to maintain a weak pattern, and the industry should continue the strategy of hedging at high levels [1][6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Upstream Analysis of the Industry Chain - **Market Review**: In September, although oil prices rose and cost support was strong, PX downstream demand was sluggish, terminal inventory replenishment was cautious, and the new downstream device commissioning was postponed. The MX - PX spread remained high, and the PX absolute price declined. By September 30, the Asian PX closing price was $808.83/ton CFR China, a decrease of $39.84/ton or 4.69% from August 29 [15][17]. - **Maintenance and Restart**: In September, Tianjin Petrochemical's 300,000 - ton unit and two units of Fuhai Chuang totaling 1.6 million tons restarted after maintenance, while Fujia Dahua's 1.4 million - ton unit was under maintenance. The PX operating rate in September was 89.51%, a month - on - month increase of 0.47% [20]. - **PX - Naphtha Spread**: By September 30, the PX - naphtha spread was $217.1/ton, a decrease of $34.21/ton from August 29. The high PX - MX spread led to high enterprise operating rates, but weak terminal demand and postponed new device commissioning reduced the PX - naphtha spread [23]. 3.2 PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: In early September, with increasing crude oil production and weak upstream reality, combined with high PTA supply expectations and limited growth space for polyester demand, PTA prices declined. In the middle of the month, due to the Palestine - Israel conflict and improved Sino - US economic and trade relations, PTA prices recovered intermittently but then fell again. In late September, low processing fees and typhoon - affected device shutdowns in South China, along with weak crude oil, led to a decline in PTA prices. By September 30, the PTA spot price was 4,545 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 2601 - 55 [24][26]. - **Capacity Utilization**: In September, the PTA capacity utilization rate was 75.78%, a month - on - month increase of 2.40% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.52%. In October, Ineos and Hengli have maintenance plans, and the monthly PTA output may increase significantly, but attention should be paid to whether there will be unexpected production cuts in existing devices [30]. - **Processing Fees**: In September, the PTA monthly average processing fee was 156.94 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20.65%. The reduction in the destocking range and lower - than - expected terminal performance limited the improvement of PTA benefits, even with PX price concessions [33]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In October, with insufficient PTA device maintenance and the restart of previously shut - down devices, and little change in demand, PTA supply - demand is expected to be in a loose balance [34]. 3.3 MEG Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: In September, although the cost side was stable to strong, concerns about future supply - demand inventory accumulation led to a significant decline in MEG prices. Despite the low port inventory and the mid - month inventory reaching a five - year low, the new production affected the futures market, resulting in a pattern of strong basis and weak prices. By September 30, the closing price of Zhangjiagang MEG was 4,275 yuan/ton, and the delivered price in the South China market was 4,410 yuan/ton [39]. - **Capacity Utilization**: In September, the domestic MEG capacity utilization rate was about 66.95%, with the non - coal - based MEG capacity utilization rate at about 66.85% and the coal - based MEG capacity utilization rate at about 67.1% [40]. - **Port Inventory**: As of October 9, the total MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 443,100 tons, an increase of 88,000 tons or 24.8% from September 29. As of October 8, 2025, the expected total arrival volume of domestic MEG in East China was 203,000 tons [45]. - **Processing Profits**: By September 25, the naphtha - based MEG profit dropped to $129/ton, reaching the lowest level of the year, and the profits of other processes also declined to varying degrees due to weak prices, limited terminal order improvement, and new device commissioning [48]. 3.4 Downstream Demand - Side Analysis of the Industry Chain - **Capacity Utilization**: In September, the average monthly polyester capacity utilization rate was 87.59%, a month - on - month increase of 1.12% due to the restart of some devices and new device commissioning. In October, after successful destocking before the festival, the polyester monthly load is expected to remain stable, but there is a risk of a decline in the second half of October as autumn and winter orders are delivered [49][51]. - **Inventory**: Before the festival, aggressive promotions led to low inventory levels, but inventory increased after the festival as downstream textile manufacturers had holidays. The overall inventory of polyester products is currently in a relatively good state [56]. - **Cash Flow**: With the decline in polymerization costs, polyester product manufacturers offered promotions, compressing local cash flows [59]. - **Weaving Industry**: As of September 25, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 63.12%, a 0.93% increase from the previous period. The average terminal weaving order days were 15.42 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week. Due to the National Day holiday and factors such as tariffs and new order supplements, the overall demand is lower than in previous years [64]. 3.5 Summary of the Polyester Industry Chain Fundamentals - **Cost Side**: In September, rising oil prices provided strong cost support, but weak PX downstream demand, cautious terminal inventory replenishment, and postponed new device commissioning led to a decline in the PX absolute price [66]. - **Supply Side**: In September, the PTA capacity utilization rate was 75.78%, and the domestic MEG capacity utilization rate was about 66.95% [67]. - **Demand Side**: In September, the average monthly polyester capacity utilization rate was 87.59%, and the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 63.12%. However, overall demand is lower than in previous years due to various factors [67]. - **Inventory**: PTA supply - demand was in a tight balance before the festival and is expected to move towards a loose balance after the festival. As of October 9, the MEG inventory in the main ports of East China increased by 24.8% from September 29 [67].

Report Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - PTA maintenance has limited positive effects, and it is advisable to wait and see. The continuous low processing fees have increased the maintenance willingness of leading industry enterprises, with Q4 PTA maintenance capacity slightly exceeding market expectations. Although polyester load has increased under the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season expectations, the load of filament and staple fiber has reached historical highs, with limited room for improvement under the loss situation. As terminal demand enters the off - season, the load of filament and staple fiber is expected to decline, suppressing the rebound space of PTA processing fees. On the cost side, the PX load in Asia and China is expected to remain at a relatively high level in Q4, and PXN is under pressure; crude oil is oscillating weakly [2][16]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The PTA01 contract oscillated weakly. The weekly opening price was 4608, the highest was 4688, the lowest was 4532, and the closing price was 4646, with a weekly increase of 42 or 0.91% [3]. Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 PX Supply - Demand Marginal Weakness - In terms of PX capacity, the commissioning of new domestic PX capacity in 2024 is gradually coming to an end, with only one 3 - million - ton new capacity plan in Yulongdao in 2024 and no new project commissioning expected in 2025. From January to August 2025, domestic PX output was 24.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.65%; from January to May 2025, domestic PX imports were 5.284 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%. - Asian PX device maintenance in 2025 was still concentrated in the second quarter. In the third quarter, Fuhai Chuang and Dongying United carried out maintenance as scheduled, while Tianjin Petrochemical and Fujia Dahua postponed it, and Daxie planned to increase the load. The average domestic PX operating rate in the third quarter was 83.3%, a month - on - month increase of 4.7%; the average Asian PX operating rate was 75.3%, a month - on - month increase of 4.2%. The average PXN in the third quarter was $252/ton, an increase of $19/ton compared with the second quarter. Currently, PXN has dropped to around $207/ton. - In the fourth quarter, there are not many PX device maintenance plans in Asia. Zhejiang Petrochemical, Sinochem Quanzhou in the Chinese mainland, and FCFC in Taiwan, China have device maintenance plans. It is expected that the PX load in Asia and China will remain at a relatively high level in Q4, and PXN is under pressure [5][6]. 2.2 High PTA Supply Pressure - From January to August 2025, domestic PTA output was 48.37 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. As of now, the domestic PTA capacity is as high as 91.715 million tons/year, with a total of 6.6 million tons/year of new PTA capacity commissioned this year, a capacity growth rate of 7.8%. There is still a 3 - million - ton/year new device of Xin凤鸣 to be commissioned in Q4. - Due to low processing fees, the maintenance loss of industry devices in Q3 increased. The PTA processing fee in the third quarter remained at a low level, with an average of 189 yuan/ton. The continuous low processing fees have led to an increase in the maintenance willingness of leading industry enterprises. The total PTA maintenance capacity in Q4 is 15.5 million tons/year, slightly more than market expectations. In the fourth quarter, Ineos, Dushan Energy, Hengli, Energy Investment, Xin凤鸣, etc. have maintenance plans, and the commissioning of Dushan Energy's new device is postponed. It is expected that the room for PTA load increase in Q4 is limited [7]. - This week, domestic PTA output was 1.4038 million tons, a decrease of 27,100 tons from last week and an increase of 29,500 tons from the same period last year. The domestic PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate was 76.48%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.81% and a year - on - year increase of 2.75%. This week, Fuhai Chuang restarted, South China devices reduced the load, and Ineos stopped due to weather reasons, resulting in domestic supply being weaker than expected and a slight decrease in domestic overall output this cycle [8]. 2.3 Inflection Point in Polyester Start - up - From January to August 2025, domestic polyester output was 52.54 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.58%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative net export of polyester products was 8.218 million tons (accounting for 18% of the same - period polyester output), a year - on - year increase of 18%. - In the third quarter, the polyester load increased slightly month - on - month, with an average load of 89.3%, a slight increase of 0.5% compared with the second quarter, mainly dragged down by bottle - chip production cuts. This week, the weekly output of the Chinese polyester industry was 1.5418 million tons, a decrease of 4800 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.31%. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of the Chinese polyester industry was 87.62%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27%. - It is expected that the weekly output of the Chinese polyester industry next week will be slightly less than 1.53 million tons. Due to the large - scale shutdown of the Huaxin device and the time required for the load increase of the Henghai device after commissioning, it is expected that the domestic polyester industry supply will decline slightly next week. - Under the expectation of the "Golden September and Silver October" demand peak season, the terminal load gradually recovered. As of the end of September, the load of texturing, weaving, and dyeing recovered to 81%, 70%, and 76% respectively, lower than the level of the same period last year. In the fourth quarter, although the polyester load increased under the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season expectation, the load of filament and staple fiber reached historical highs, with limited room for improvement under the loss situation. As terminal demand enters the off - season, the load of filament and staple fiber is expected to decline, and the load increase of bottle chips is limited due to poor efficiency and the off - season of demand [13][14]. Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The continuous low processing fees have increased the maintenance willingness of leading industry enterprises, and the PTA maintenance capacity in Q4 is slightly more than market expectations. Although the polyester load has increased under the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season expectation, the load of filament and staple fiber has reached historical highs, with limited room for improvement under the loss situation. As terminal demand enters the off - season, the load of filament and staple fiber is expected to decline, suppressing the rebound space of PTA processing fees. On the cost side, the PX load in Asia and China is expected to remain at a relatively high level in Q4, and PXN is under pressure; crude oil is oscillating weakly. Overall, PTA maintenance has limited positive effects, and it is advisable to wait and see [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - Global crude oil supply is expected to be abundant, with the surplus continuously expanding. In the fourth quarter, global crude oil demand will first decline and then rebound. Given the overall loose supply, the short - term decline in demand may have a more significant negative impact on crude oil prices. Even if demand rises in December, global crude oil supply will still be in a surplus state [9]. - In the polyester industry chain, both the cost side and industrial demand will face downward pressure in the fourth quarter, but supply is also expected to decline accordingly, resulting in a pattern of weak supply and demand. The decline in supply may be more obvious than that in demand. The spot production profits of various polyester industry chain products are generally low. Therefore, during the traditional off - season of demand, the price performance of the polyester industry chain may not be poor, and it is expected to show a trend of being low at first and then high in the fourth quarter [9]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Polyester Industry Chain Market Review - In the third quarter, international crude oil prices first rebounded and then declined, with a slight cumulative decrease and a weak trend. The prices of the polyester industry chain generally followed crude oil. In July, prices generally rebounded, and from August to September, they declined. In August - September, the demand of the polyester industry increased slightly, and the operating rates of PX and PTA rose in September, showing a pattern of double - growth in supply and demand. Coupled with the weak operation of the cost side, prices continued to fall in the first half of September. In late September, due to the rebound of international oil prices, the prices of related products in the polyester industry chain generally rebounded from low levels, while the price of ethylene glycol was weak [15]. - **PX**: The operating rate was low in July but showed a continuous upward trend from August to September, reaching the highest level this year in mid - September. In late August, the planned maintenance of Zhejiang Petrochemical's 2 million tons/year PX unit was postponed, and other maintenance units restarted, causing the operating rate to rise instead of fall. In August, PX imports increased month - on - month, reaching the highest single - month level this year. From June to August, new PTA units were put into operation, but the new PTA units had limited short - term impact on boosting PX consumption. In September, the PTA operating rate increased slightly, but the operating level was lower than the same period last year, and the change in PX demand was not obvious [16]. - **PTA**: The operating rate was generally stable in July, significantly declined in August due to many unit overhauls, and increased slightly in September. The spot processing fee of PTA was continuously low in the third quarter, and the enthusiasm of factories for production was not high. In September, multiple overhauled PTA units restarted, and the operating rate increased month - on - month compared with August. In July, PTA supply was stable, but demand weakened due to the continuous decline of the polyester operating rate, and social inventory increased. In August, due to the decline of the PTA operating rate, although the polyester operating rate was at a low level, PTA social inventory decreased slightly. In September, with the increase of both the PTA operating rate and the polyester operating rate, the overall situation was a double - growth pattern of supply and demand, and the change in PTA social inventory was not significant [20][21]. - **MEG**: The comprehensive operating rate of ethylene glycol increased steadily in the third quarter. In mid - August, the operating rate decreased significantly but quickly recovered. The domestic ethylene glycol output was generally stable at a high level in the third quarter. The consumption of ethylene glycol was relatively stable. The port inventory of ethylene glycol in Jiangsu and Zhejiang only increased slightly in early August. At the beginning of September, the inventory in Jiangsu and Zhejiang fell below 400,000 tons, reaching a new low this year and lower than the same period in previous years. The price of ethylene glycol rose continuously in July, fluctuated narrowly in August, and declined continuously in September [24]. - **Short Fiber**: The operating rate of short fiber was relatively stable in the third quarter, and the monthly output from July to August was basically the same. The operating rate of pure polyester yarn decreased less than last year in the third quarter, but the increase during the recovery stage was also weak, and the current operating level was lower than the same period last year. The short - fiber market showed a pattern of weak supply and demand in the first eight months, with weaker demand being more obvious. The spot processing fee of short fiber fluctuated repeatedly in the third quarter, generally rising in July, falling in August, and rising again in September [25]. - **Bottle Chip**: The operating rate of polyester bottle chips began to decline in late May, remained at a low level from early July to the end of August, and then increased slightly but was still relatively low. From a seasonal perspective, the domestic demand for bottle chips was generally stable from July to August, and bottle - chip exports decreased month - on - month in August, reaching the lowest single - month level since March. The spot processing fee of bottle chips increased slightly continuously in July and then fluctuated narrowly at a low level. The spot price of bottle chips generally oscillated downward in the third quarter, and the closing price of the main contract fluctuated. The basis of bottle chips decreased continuously from July to August and increased slightly in September, with the futures and spot prices at par [30]. 2. OPEC+ Continues to Increase Crude Oil Production, Intensifying the Expectation of Supply Surplus - **EIA Keeps Raising Crude Oil Supply Forecasts, and the Expectation of Supply Growth Continues**: In the third quarter, international crude oil prices first rose and then fell. In July, supported by the expectation of the peak demand season, international crude oil prices were strong. However, due to OPEC+'s continuous decisions to increase crude oil production at each monthly meeting, the global crude oil supply surplus is expected to intensify. Since April, OPEC+ has gradually lifted the voluntary production - cut plan and made monthly decisions to increase crude oil production. From July to September, OPEC meetings continued the production - increase policy. Affected by OPEC+'s continuous production increase, EIA raised the global crude oil production forecast for three consecutive months from June to September, with the largest increase in the August EIA report [32]. - **Seasonal Fluctuation of Demand, with Overall Loose Supply**: The supply and demand of international crude oil are relatively loose, but from the statistical data of the US crude oil, the supply surplus is not obvious. The number of US oil and gas rigs is still hovering at the bottom. As of September 26, 2025, the number of US oil and gas rigs was 549, including 424 crude oil rigs, which rebounded from a low level but was still low. The latest weekly US crude oil production data showed that as of the week of September 19, US crude oil production was 13.501 million barrels per day, which generally increased slightly from August to September and was at a relatively high level, but significant growth was difficult. The consumption of crude oil has two peak seasons due to the US summer travel peak and winter heating demand. The seasonal changes in global crude oil demand are basically synchronized with those in the US. In the third quarter, the capacity utilization rate of US refineries first increased and then decreased, and was higher than the same period last year for most of the time. After mid - September, the refinery operating rate showed a downward trend, and October is usually a period when the refinery operating rate performs poorly. The EIA commercial crude oil inventory fluctuated repeatedly in the third quarter, with no obvious trend, and is currently near the annual low. It is expected to continue to rise in October. The strategic reserve inventory has been gradually increasing slightly since November 2023. The US gasoline inventory decreased rapidly from July to August, generally higher than the same period last year, and the decline rate slowed down in September. With the continuous decline of the capacity utilization rate of US refineries, the US gasoline inventory will resume the continuous decline trend in October [38][40][41]. 3. Supply of Mid - upstream Products in the Industry Chain is Stable, and Low Profits Still Affect the Supply Side - **PX and PTA Operating Rates Fluctuate Repeatedly, and PTA New Units are Gradually Put into Production**: As of now, there are no new PX production units this year. From June to August, two new PTA units were put into production, and in May, a new ethylene glycol unit was put into production. There are still plans to put new PTA and ethylene glycol units into production by the end of the year. The PX operating rate was relatively low in July due to unit overhauls, and increased continuously from August to September. In the fourth quarter, Zhejiang Petrochemical's 2 million - ton and Sinochem Quanzhou's 800,000 - ton PX units are planned for maintenance. The PTA operating rate increased slightly in July and then was generally stable, but there were still many overhauls in August. In September, some PTA units restarted, and the operating rate increased slightly. In the fourth quarter, there are plans to overhaul multiple PTA units. From January to August 2025, China's PX production decreased year - on - year, imports increased, and the supply decreased slightly year - on - year. PX consumption increased year - on - year. PTA exports decreased year - on - year, and the spot processing fee was poor in the third quarter [49][50][53]. - **Ethylene Glycol Operating Rate Increases Steadily, and the Operating Condition of Coal - based Ethylene Glycol is Better than Expected**: In May 2025, the first - phase 600,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol unit of Sichuan Zhengdakai was successfully commissioned, and the ethylene glycol capacity increased slightly. According to the new unit commissioning plan, Shandong Yulong Petrochemical's 1 million - ton/year ethylene glycol unit may be put into production in October. The coal - based ethylene glycol operating rate increased steadily in the third quarter, with only a short - term decline in mid - August. From January to August 2025, China's ethylene glycol production and imports increased, and the supply increased significantly year - on - year. The profit of oil - based ethylene glycol was better than last year, showing a narrow - range fluctuation, and the theoretical calculation of oil - based ethylene glycol production was still in a loss state. The profit of coal - based ethylene glycol was generally good but declined significantly in the third quarter [62][64][67]. 4. The Demand of the Industry Chain in the Fourth Quarter is High at First and then Low, with Overall Insipid Demand - **The Demand for Textile Raw Materials in the Traditional Peak Season is Weak, and the Demand for Bottle Chips will Continue to Weaken**: Since 2025, new units of filament, bottle chips, and film have been put into production. The polyester capacity has increased slightly this year, with bottle - chip capacity accounting for the majority. In the third quarter, the demand for textile raw materials was in the stage of turning from off - season to peak season, showing the characteristics of an off - season that is not off and a peak season that is not peak. From January to August 2025, China's polyester production increased year - on - year, mainly driven by bottle - chip production. The increase in polyester production drove up the consumption of PTA and ethylene glycol [70][71][76]. - **PTA and Ethylene Glycol May Accumulate Inventory, and the Supply Side will Determine Inventory Changes**: The PTA social inventory reached a phased high in late February this year and then gradually declined from March to early July. In the third quarter, the overall change was not significant. In September, it changed from continuous inventory reduction in August to slight inventory accumulation. The ethylene glycol port inventory in the third quarter generally showed a downward - oscillating trend. In October - November, the demand for polyester raw materials is expected to weaken, and ethylene glycol may accumulate inventory [81][82]. - **Polyester Profits are Weak, and the Profit Situation is Still under Pressure in the Demand Downturn Stage**: The processing fees of various polyester products are affected by capacity growth, supply - demand contradictions, and seasonal demand changes. In the third quarter, the profit situation of major polyester products was not ideal. In the fourth quarter, the demand of the industry chain will face the pressure of weakening again, and it is difficult for the production profits of filament and other products to continue to improve [83][85]. - **The Inventory Pressure of Filament is Not High, and There is a Downward Pressure on Bottle - Chip Exports**: In 2025, the exports of major polyester products such as filament, bottle chips, and short fiber increased year - on - year, with bottle chips and short fiber having higher export growth rates. The export volume of bottle chips increased the most in absolute terms. However, in the fourth quarter, the domestic demand for bottle chips is in the traditional off - season, and exports are expected to decline month - on - month, and the trend of bottle - chip processing fees is still not optimistic. The filament inventory fluctuated greatly this year, and there is still inventory accumulation pressure in October - November. The short - fiber inventory has generally shown a downward trend since mid - February, and the inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter is not large [91][93][97]. - **The Seasonal Change in Demand Weakens, and the Off - Season May Not Be Off**: Filament and short fiber in polyester products are greatly affected by the off - peak seasons of textile raw material demand. From August to September, the operating rates of filament and short fiber did not increase significantly, showing the characteristics of a peak season that is not peak. In October, demand will turn weak, and there may be a situation where the off - season is not off. The operating rates of pure polyester yarn and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms can reflect the demand changes of short fiber and filament. The operating rate of looms increased to near the highest level this year as of September 26, but it will decline again in late October. The production of yarn and grey cloth is still weak this year, and there is inventory accumulation pressure in October - November [102][104][107]. 5. Domestic Demand for Textile and Apparel will Gradually Improve, but Exports are under Downward Pressure - **Domestic Demand for Textile and Apparel Enters the Peak Season, but the Overall Performance is Not Ideal**: In 2025, China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased, but the year - on - year growth rate gradually declined from June to August, and the recovery of domestic consumption was unstable. In August 2025, the domestic retail sales of textile and apparel increased year - on - year, but the growth rate was lower than that of the overall retail market from June to July. Domestic textile and apparel consumption shows obvious seasonal fluctuations, and the peak season is mainly in the second half of the year. It is necessary to pay attention to the domestic textile and apparel consumption in the fourth quarter [108][113]. - **Textile and Apparel Exports are under Downward Pressure, and the Decline in Apparel Exports is More Obvious**: From January to August 2025, China's cumulative export amount increased year - on - year. However, the US tariff policy adjustment is still increasing, and the Sino - US trade environment is difficult to improve substantially. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative export of textile and apparel decreased slightly year - on - year, with textile exports increasing and apparel exports decreasing. In July - August, China's apparel exports decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the peak export volume this year occurred in June instead of August as in previous years [114][115][117]. 6. Summary and Outlook - **Summary**: In the third quarter, OPEC+ decided to increase crude oil production at monthly meetings, and EIA continuously raised the global crude oil production forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with the supply surplus scale expanding. International crude oil prices oscillated downward during the peak consumption season in the third quarter, with a small cumulative decline. The prices of the polyester industry chain generally followed crude oil, and the overall performance was weaker than that of crude oil. The profits of the industry chain were still not ideal, with the profits of PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol declining significantly in the third quarter, and the profits of filament, short fiber, and bottle chips rebounding from a low level but still remaining low [118]. - **Outlook**: In the fourth quarter, the international crude oil market will face a transformation where demand first drops rapidly and then rebounds. Under the expectation of supply surplus, the market may be more sensitive to the decline in demand. If OPEC+ continues the policy of continuous production increase, the international crude oil supply surplus situation will further intensify. The Fed is expected to continue to cut interest rates in the fourth quarter, but the effect of interest - rate cuts on boosting the expectation of crude oil demand is limited. In the polyester industry chain, the demand will be generally weak in the fourth quarter, especially in October when it enters the off - season of textile raw material demand, and there may be a situation where the off - season is not off. Due to the low profits across the entire industry chain, supply is also expected to decline when demand falls. In October, both crude oil and the polyester industry chain demand are expected to weaken, and the prices of industry - chain products will face downward pressure, but it is expected that the supply side will also make adjustments, entering a state of double - reduction in supply and demand. In December, as crude oil demand gradually recovers, the downward pressure on oil prices will ease, and the prices of the polyester industry chain are expected to rebound, showing a trend of being low at first and then high in the fourth quarter. In terms of industry - chain profits, the profits of mid - upstream products PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol declined in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, industry - chain profits are expected to shift from downstream to mid - upstream products [119][120].