1. Report Industry Investment Rating - LLDPE: Neutral; PP: Cautiously short on rallies [3] - L01 - 05: Reverse calendar spread on rallies; PP01 - 05: Reverse calendar spread on rallies [3] - Cross -品种: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - PE: The pattern of weak supply and demand continues. The short - term polyethylene futures is dominated by the cost side and continues the volatile pattern. High supply, limited demand support, and weak cost - side support lead to weak and volatile PE [2]. - PP: The supply - demand contradiction still exists. The previous weak propane on the cost side and the lack of macro - level boost lead to a weak pattern. Supply - side pressure persists, demand support is limited, and it continues the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价为6888元/吨（-11）, PP主力合约收盘价为6576元/吨（-14）, LL华北现货为6890元/吨（-10）, LL华东现货为7000元/吨（-20）, PP华东现货为6580元/吨（+0）, LL华北基差为2元/吨（+1）, LL华东基差为112元/吨（-9）, PP华东基差为4元/吨（+14） [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率为80.9%（-0.6%）, PP开工率为77.1%（+1.1%） [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润为283.4元/吨（-54.1）, PP油制生产利润为 - 396.6元/吨（-54.1）, PDH制PP生产利润为 - 152.1元/吨（-55.6） [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: LL进口利润为18.8元/吨（-51.6）, PP进口利润为 - 292.8元/吨（-11.4）, PP出口利润为 - 16.5美元/吨（+1.4） [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率为49.5%（+2.4%）, PE下游包装膜开工率为51.3%（-1.3%）, PP下游塑编开工率为44.2%（-0.2%）, PP下游BOPP膜开工率为61.6%（+0.2%） [1]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The supply - demand pattern is weak. The supply is expected to increase, the demand follow - up is limited, the cost - side support is expected to weaken, and it continues the weak and volatile pattern [2]. - **PP**: The supply - demand contradiction exists. The supply - side pressure persists, the demand support is limited, and it continues the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [2]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - side**: LLDPE neutral; PP cautiously short on rallies [3]. - **Calendar Spread**: L01 - 05 reverse calendar spread on rallies; PP01 - 05 reverse calendar spread on rallies [3]. - **Cross -品种**: None [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The polyolefin market continues to face pressure due to limited demand growth. Both PE and PP are in a situation of loose supply - demand and weak cost support. The market is expected to remain weak in the short - term [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 6883 yuan/ton (+4), PP main contract at 6583 yuan/ton (+18). LL North China spot was 6880 yuan/ton (+0), LL East China spot 6950 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot 6560 yuan/ton (-20). LL North China basis was -3 yuan/ton (-4), LL East China basis 67 yuan/ton (-4), PP East China basis -23 yuan/ton (-38) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率 was 81.8% (-2.2%), PP开工率 was 78.2% (+0.5%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 515.6 yuan/ton (+23.5), PP oil - based production profit was -94.4 yuan/ton (+23.5), PDH - based PP production profit was 122.3 yuan/ton (+12.1) [1]. - **Import and Export**: LL import profit was -147.2 yuan/ton (+3.0), PP import profit was -560.1 yuan/ton (+13.0), PP export profit was 29.7 dollars/ton (-1.6) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film开工率 was 42.9% (+7.3%), PE downstream packaging film开工率 was 52.2% (-0.7%), PP downstream woven开工率 was 44.3% (+0.0%), PP downstream BOPP film开工率 was 61.2% (+0.5%) [1]. Market Analysis - **PE**: Recent continuous decline in PE is due to loose supply - demand, high inventory, and weakening cost support from falling oil prices. Supply is expected to increase with new production and restart of some devices. Demand growth is limited, mainly for rigid needs. Cost support is weakening. Future focus is on cost - side and macro - policy impacts [2]. - **PP**: The weakening of PP is dragged by falling oil and propane prices, and loose supply - demand. Supply is increasing with new production expected. Demand growth is insufficient, inventory is high, and cost support is weak. Attention should be paid to propane supply and PDH marginal device operations [3]. Strategy - **Single - Side**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach; expect short - term weak and volatile market [4]. - **Inter - Period**: Conduct L01 - L05 reverse arbitrage; PP01 - PP05 reverse arbitrage [4]. - **Inter - Variety**: Short PP01 - 3MA01 when the spread is high [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC is in a state of high operation and weak demand, with a possibility of inventory accumulation in the future. The fundamentals of PVC remain weak, and there may be a correction after a phased rebound in the market. Technically, for V2601, attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average around 4691 and the pressure of the 20 - day moving average around 4836 [3]. - This week, a large number of PVC devices are set to restart, and the impact of newly shut - down devices is limited. The PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to return to a high level. With fewer maintenance devices and new production capacity coming online in October, the supply pressure is relatively high [3]. - The real estate market remains weak, and product orders are poor. Downstream is expected to maintain rigid procurement. Affected by India's anti - dumping tax, the export market may remain on the sidelines [3]. - The cost of the calcium carbide process has increased, while that of the ethylene process has decreased. Due to the larger decline in spot prices than costs, losses in both processes have deepened. Currently, calcium carbide enterprises are in deep losses, and the cost - side support has been weakened [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4702 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; the trading volume is 715,268 lots, down 43,758 lots; the open interest is 1,206,166 lots, down 6,761 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders are 905,720 lots, down 1,642 lots; the short positions are 1,042,891 lots, up 1,316 lots; the net long positions are - 137,171 lots, down 2,958 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4,618.85 yuan/ton, up 21.15 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4,820 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4,707.5 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 690 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 650 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 710 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 92 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it is 2,673.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it is 2,510 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 49.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 524 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it is 549 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 183 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars; in Southeast Asia, it is 192 US dollars/ton, down 9 US dollars [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 76.69%, down 5.94 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 74.71%, down 8.23 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 81.26%, down 0.64 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 55.62 tons, down 0.08 tons; the inventory in East China is 50.48 tons, up 0.21 tons; the inventory in South China is 5.14 tons, down 0.29 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 93.05, down 0.29. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 39,801.01 million square meters, up 4,595.01 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area is 643,108.94 million square meters, up 4,377.94 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment is 31,693.94 billion yuan, up 3,588.01 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 10.93%, up 0.15 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.8%, up 0.05 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 14.97%, down 0.19 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 14.97%, down 0.19 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From October 11th to 17th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 76.69%, a week - on - week decrease of 53.94%. PVC downstream operating rate increased by 9.38% week - on - week to 48.59%, with the pipe operating rate increasing by 7.17% week - on - week to 40% and the profile operating rate increasing by 17.39% week - on - week to 33.26% [3]. - As of October 16th, PVC social inventory decreased by 0.24% week - on - week to 103.38 tons. V2601 first rose and then fell, closing at 4,702 yuan/ton. Affected by the maintenance of some devices, the PVC capacity utilization rate decreased significantly last week. After the National Day, downstream enterprises gradually resumed work, and the operating rates of pipes and profiles increased week - on - week. Inventory decreased slightly [3]. - From October 11th to 17th, the average cost of the calcium carbide process increased to 5,142 yuan/ton, and the average national cost of the ethylene process decreased to 5,432 yuan/ton. The profit of the calcium carbide process decreased to - 731 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ethylene process decreased to - 552 yuan/ton [3].

Group 1: Spot Market - The spot prices in North China are at 6890 (-60), East China at 6950 (-50), and South China at 7130 (-50), indicating a general decline of around 50 [1] - The market sentiment is weak, with low transaction volumes primarily driven by essential demand [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Inventory Data - The capacity utilization rate stands at 81.24%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.14% [2] - The average operating rate of downstream PE is at 44.36%, with a minor increase of 0.23% [2] Group 3: Inventory and Market Outlook - Upstream equity inventory has accumulated to 105,900 tons [3] - The peak of PE maintenance has been observed, with significant inventory pressure expected in October due to the return of maintenance facilities and increased imports, while downstream demand remains lackluster [3] Group 4: Strategy - The current market strategy is to remain observant [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In July 2025, domestic PVC plants are undergoing concentrated maintenance, with plans for plants in Shanxi Yushe, Yanhu Haina, and Ordos to shut down, expected to keep the capacity utilization rate on a downward trend. Although plants like Wanhua, Bohua, and Gansu Yaowang are scheduled to start production, future policies to push out backward production capacity may ease supply pressure. - It's the off - season for domestic downstream demand, and the Indian market demand is constrained by the rainy season. The anti - dumping policy may be implemented in early July, and the BIS certification in India has been extended to mid - December. - The impact of power restrictions in Inner Mongolia on calcium carbide has weakened, and some calcium carbide plants have resumed operation. The US has lifted restrictions on ethane exports to China, which may lead to a decrease in the cost of the ethylene - based method. - In the short term, the expectation of production capacity exit and real - estate support policies gives room for a premium on the main futures contract, but the futures price is suppressed by weak real - world demand and costs. Technically, the daily K - line should pay attention to the support around 4885 and the resistance around 5000 [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4963 yuan/ton, a increase of 69 yuan; the trading volume was 974,935 lots, an increase of 240,750 lots; the open interest was 967,373 lots, an increase of 32,878 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was 16,621 lots, an increase of 42,834 lots [3]. Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4970 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4792.31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.77 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4945 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4841.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.5 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 660 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 750 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 173 yuan/ton, a decrease of 49 yuan [3]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2631.67 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it was 2388 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East was 524 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mid - price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia was 564 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East was 184 US dollars/ton, an increase of 8 US dollars; the mid - price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia was 188 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars [3]. Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 77.44%, a decrease of 0.65%; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 80.8%, a decrease of 0.17%; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 68.54%, a decrease of 1.92%. The total social inventory of PVC was 37.31 million tons, an increase of 1.14 million tons; the inventory in East China was 33.03 million tons, an increase of 1.1 million tons; the inventory in South China was 4.28 million tons, an increase of 0.04 million tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index was 93.72, a decrease of 0.14. The cumulative value of newly started housing area was 231.8361 million square meters, an increase of 53.4777 million square meters; the cumulative value of real - estate construction area was 6.2501954 billion square meters, an increase of 47.0449 million square meters; the cumulative value of real - estate development investment was 1915.481 billion yuan, an increase of 428.168 billion yuan [3]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 13.71%, an increase of 0.77%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 16.63%, an increase of 0.36%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and at - the - money call options of PVC was 19.17%, an increase of 0.65% [3]. Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission estimates that China's GDP in 2025 will be around 140 trillion yuan. - According to Longzhong Information, on July 9, the cash - remittance price of PVCSG5 in East China warehouses increased by 20 - 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, ranging from 4760 - 4860 yuan/ton. - From June 28 to July 4, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 77.44%, a decrease of 0.65% from the previous period. V2509 rose 1.58% to close at 4963 yuan/ton. On the supply side, last week, affected by the shutdown and maintenance of plants such as Ningxia Yinglite and Inner Mongolia Sanlian, the PVC capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.65% to 77.44%. On the demand side, last week, the downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 0.1% to 42.88%, among which the operating rate of pipes increased by 0.94% to 39.5%, and the operating rate of profiles decreased by 0.25% to 34.75%. In terms of inventory, last week, the commercial inventory of PP decreased by 0.09% to 785,100 tons, at a neutral level compared with the same period in the past three years. - As of July 3, the new sample statistics of Longzhong's social inventory increased by 2.89% to 5.918 million tons compared with the previous period, a year - on - year decrease of 37.66% [3].

Report Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The prices of polyolefins are oscillating strongly due to the boost from upstream crude oil. The future supply of PE is expected to remain high, while the supply pressure of PP is alleviated due to many device overhauls. The downstream operating rates of polyolefins continue to decline, and the overall inventory is slightly reduced. The strategy suggests being cautiously bearish on plastics unilaterally, and there is no cross - period strategy [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 7164 yuan/ton (+14), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 7112 yuan/ton (+15). The LL North China spot price is 7400 yuan/ton (+0), the LL East China spot price is 7380 yuan/ton (+30), and the PP East China spot price is 7300 yuan/ton (+0). The LL North China basis is 236 yuan/ton (-24), the LL East China basis is 216 yuan/ton (+16), and the PP East China basis is 188 yuan/ton (+5) [1]. 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate is 83.8% (-0.1%), and the PP operating rate is 75.5% (-2.6%). The PE oil - based production profit is 342.0 yuan/ton (-25.0), the PP oil - based production profit is 32.0 yuan/ton (-25.0), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 496.6 yuan/ton (-0.7) [1]. 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - No specific data is provided in the given content. 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - The LL import profit is - 174.1 yuan/ton (+0.0), the PP import profit is - 331.8 yuan/ton (-20.0), and the PP export profit is 19.2 US dollars/ton (+2.4) [1]. 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rates and Downstream Profits - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 26.1% (-4.0%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.8% (+1.3%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 45.3% (-1.4%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 61.7% (-0.1%) [1]. 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The overall inventory is slightly reduced. However, no specific inventory data is provided [2].