Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of calcium carbide in the northwest region of the upstream remains stable. The PVC operating rate has increased, and the downstream operating rate has recovered but is still lower than the same period last year. The export inquiry has improved, but the social inventory is still high, and the real estate industry is still in the adjustment stage. If the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the PVC price will fluctuate strongly in the near future [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The PVC2605 contract opened higher and then fluctuated with a reduction in positions. The lowest price was 5818 yuan/ton, the highest was 6084 yuan/ton, and it closed at 5860 yuan/ton, with a gain of 0.39%. The position decreased by 24,311 lots to 831,069 lots [2] - On March 19th, the mainstream price of calcium carbide-based PVC in East China rose to 5780 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 5860 yuan/ton. The current basis was -80 yuan/ton, weakening by 55 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a neutral to low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, the PVC operating rate increased by 0.24 percentage points to 81.35%, still at a neutral to high level in the same period in recent years. New production capacities of several companies were put into production or in trial production in 2025 [4] - On the demand side, the real estate industry is still in the adjustment stage. In January - February 2026, real estate investment, sales, new construction, and completion areas all had significant year-on-year declines. The overall improvement of the real estate industry still takes time. As of the week of March 15th, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities increased by 43.23% week-on-week, but it was still at a low level in the same period over the years [5] - In terms of inventory, as of the week of March 12th, the PVC social inventory increased by 0.24% week-on-week to 1.4072 million tons, 63.89% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory increased significantly during the Spring Festival and continued to increase that week, remaining at a high level [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The PVC price is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation in the near term if the Strait of Hormuz fails to restore navigation. The upstream raw material supply of PVC is tight due to the non - resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and vessel attacks, leading to rising ethylene and calcium carbide prices. There are expectations of reduced production load in the domestic and overseas PVC markets, and downstream demand is gradually recovering. However, the real estate market is still in adjustment, and PVC social inventory remains high [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - **Supply and Demand**: The upstream calcium carbide price in Northwest China is stable. The PVC operating rate increased by 0.24 percentage points to 81.35% week - on - week, being at a neutral - to - high level in the same period in recent years. After the Spring Festival, the average downstream operating rate of PVC rose 3.49 percentage points to 39.33%, 3.13 percentage points lower than the same lunar period last year. The real estate market is still in adjustment, with significant year - on - year declines in investment, sales, new construction, and completion areas from January to February 2026. The export inquiry has improved due to rising Asian market prices [1]. - **Inventory**: The PVC social inventory increased significantly during the Spring Festival and continued to rise last week. As of the week of March 12, it increased by 0.24% week - on - week to 140.72 million tons, 63.89% higher than the same period last year, and the inventory pressure is still large. The futures warehouse receipts are at a high level [1][6]. - **Price Trend**: The PVC2605 contract opened lower, reduced positions, and oscillated downward, closing at 5735 yuan/ton with a 1.31% decline. The basis in East China is - 25 yuan/ton, strengthening by 106 yuan/ton, at a neutral - to - low level [2][3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The PVC2605 contract opened lower, with a minimum price of 5695 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 5950 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 5735 yuan/ton. The position decreased by 46728 lots to 855380 lots [2]. - **Basis**: On March 18, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 5710 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 5735 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 25 yuan/ton, strengthening by 106 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: The PVC operating rate increased by 0.24 percentage points to 81.35% week - on - week, at a neutral - to - high level in the same period in recent years. New production capacities of 500,000 tons/year of Wanhua Chemical, 400,000 tons/year of Tianjin Bohua, 200,000 tons/year of Qingdao Gulf, and 300,000 tons/year of Gansu Yaowang were put into production in the second half of 2025. The 300,000 - ton/year Jiaxing Jiahua was in trial production in December 2025 [4]. - **Demand**: The real estate market is in adjustment. From January to February 2026, the national real estate development investment was 961.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1%. The sales area of commercial housing was 92.93 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 13.5%. The sales volume of commercial housing was 818.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.2%. The new construction area of houses was 50.84 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 23.1%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises' houses was 5.35372 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 11.7%. The completed area of houses was 63.2 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 27.9%. As of the week of March 15, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 43.23% week - on - week, but it was still at a low level in the same period over the years [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of March 12, the PVC social inventory increased by 0.24% week - on - week to 140.72 million tons, 63.89% higher than the same period last year, and the inventory was still at a high level [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The PVC industry maintains high开工 rates, while downstream enterprises experience seasonal production cuts due to the Spring Festival. The "rush to export" has limited effect on alleviating domestic supply - demand contradictions, and inventory is expected to continue accumulating at a high level. The supply - demand drivers remain bearish. However, due to the overlap of the "anti - involution" cycle and the mercury - free transformation cycle of the PVC industry, the market has an optimistic expectation of future supply pressure relief, providing some support to the market. Additionally, with the approaching of the "Two Sessions" in early March, there is a possibility of an improvement in macro - sentiment. In the short term, the PVC market is in a state of game between weak reality and strong expectations, and the market price is expected to fluctuate. The daily range of V2605 is expected to be around 4900 - 5000 [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4938 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan; the trading volume is 815,778 lots, a decrease of 88,754 lots; the open interest is 1,101,478 lots, a decrease of 9,805 lots. Among the top 20 futures positions, the long position is 1,069,537 lots, a decrease of 10,791 lots; the short position is 1,186,526 lots, a decrease of 7,436 lots; the net long position is - 116,989 lots, a decrease of 3,355 lots [3] 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4980 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4753.7 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.26 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5010 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4865.62 yuan/ton, an increase of 23.75 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 720 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 680 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 188 yuan/ton, an increase of 52 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2850 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China is 2790 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China is 2614 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 150 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 417 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia is 448 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 209 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars; in Southeast Asia is 219 US dollars/ton, an increase of 25 US dollars [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 79.26%, an increase of 0.33%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 80.85%, an increase of 0.27%. The operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 75.49%, an increase of 0.47%. The total social inventory of PVC is 592,900 tons, an increase of 8,200 tons. The total social inventory in the East China region is 545,000 tons, an increase of 9,300 tons. The total social inventory in the South China region is 47,800 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 91.45, a decrease of 0.45. The cumulative value of newly started housing area is 587.6996 million square meters, an increase of 53.1326 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area is 6.5989029 billion square meters, an increase of 38.2409 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment is 448.9598 billion yuan, an increase of 287.141 billion yuan [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 21.88%, an increase of 0.37%. The 40 - day historical volatility is 21.3%, a decrease of 0.2%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 20.32%, an increase of 0.32%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 20.31%, an increase of 0.31% [3] 3.7 Industry News - From January 31 to February 5, the capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises was 79.26%, a month - on - month increase of 0.33%. The downstream operating rate of PVC decreased by 3.33% month - on - month to 41.42%, among which the operating rate of pipes decreased by 4% to 33%, and the operating rate of profiles decreased by 2.39% to 29.13%. As of February 5, the PVC social inventory was 1.227 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.71%. From January 31 to February 5, the average national cost of calcium carbide - based PVC increased to 5278 yuan/ton, and the average national cost of ethylene - based PVC increased to 4898 yuan/ton; the profit of calcium carbide - based PVC increased to - 659 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC increased to 103 yuan/ton [3]

Core Viewpoint - The PVC industry is undergoing a transition towards mercury-free production methods due to the influence of the Minamata Convention and national policies, which presents cost pressures for companies using the calcium carbide method [2] Company Summary - Jiahuan Energy stated that the calcium carbide method for PVC production requires mercury chloride as a catalyst, making the transition to mercury-free production a significant trend [2] - The company utilizes the ethylene method for PVC production, which has advantages in terms of impurities and product performance compared to the calcium carbide method, and does not involve mercury catalysts [2] - Currently, the company's PVC products are primarily marketed domestically, with a low export volume [2] Industry Summary - In the long term, if the export tax rebate for the PVC industry is canceled, outdated and high-cost production capacities will be eliminated, leading to an optimized supply-side structure in the PVC industry [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is characterized by a game between weak reality and strong expectations. In the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate widely, and the daily range of V2605 is estimated to be around 5000 - 5200. Although the fundamentals show high - level inventory accumulation and a bearish supply - demand drive, the market has an optimistic expectation for the alleviation of future supply pressure, which provides some support to the market [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of PVC is 5155 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan; the trading volume is 2182106 lots, down 24041 lots; the open interest is 1152260 lots, up 102782 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders are 1065605 lots, up 44081 lots; the short positions are 1203361 lots, up 61292 lots; the net long positions are - 137756 lots, down 17211 lots [2] Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4945 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4808.46 yuan/ton, up 22.69 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5050 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4868.12 yuan/ton, down 6.25 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 680 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 660 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 660 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 305 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2850 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China is 2790 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China is 2616 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 150 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 417 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars; in Southeast Asia is 448 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 199 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars; in Southeast Asia is 194 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 78.93%, up 0.19%. The operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 80.58%, up 0.58%; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 75.02%, down 0.72%. The total social inventory of PVC is 58.47 tons, up 0.82 tons; the inventory in East China is 53.58 tons, up 0.84 tons; the inventory in South China is 4.89 tons, down 0.02 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 91.45, down 0.45. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 58769.96 square meters, up 5313.26 square meters; the cumulative value of real - estate construction area is 659890.29 square meters, up 3824.09 square meters; the cumulative value of real - estate development investment is 44895.98 billion yuan, up 2871.41 billion yuan [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 20.55%, up 0.44%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 22.62%, up 0.3%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 23.9%, up 0.44%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 23.89%, up 0.47% [2] Industry News - From January 24th to 30th, the capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises was 78.93%, up 0.19% month - on - month. The downstream product operating rate of PVC decreased by 0.11% to 44.75%, with the pipe operating rate remaining stable at 37% and the profile operating rate remaining stable at 31.52%. As of January 29th, the social inventory of PVC was 120.64 tons, up 2.45% month - on - month. V2605 rose 1.92% to close at 5155 yuan/ton. The national average cost of calcium - carbide - based PVC increased to 5194 yuan/ton, and the national average cost of ethylene - based PVC decreased to 4896 yuan/ton. The profit of calcium - carbide - based PVC was - 744 yuan/ton, with a slight reduction in losses; the profit of ethylene - based PVC was 21 yuan/ton, turning from loss to profit [2]